2021 02 02 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Notts County vs Bromley at 02 February 2021
Wealdstone vs Maidenhead at 02 February 2021
Stockport vs Sutton at 02 February 2021
Halifax vs Hartlepool at 02 February 2021
Eastleigh vs Wrexham at 02 February 2021
Chesterfield vs King’s Lynn at 02 February 2021
Boreham Wood vs Weymouth at 02 February 2021
Aldershot vs Barnet at 02 February 2021
Torquay vs Altrincham at 02 February 2021


Notts County vs Bromley at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Notts County and Bromley for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Notts County

2.07

2.65

-10.6

Draw

3.51

3.66

-1.2

Bromley

3.21

2.87

3.7

Over 2.5

1.84

2.01

-4.6

Under 2.5

1.95

1.99

-1.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bromley (3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Notts County in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance at home.
Notts County, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Weymouth

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Jan

Solihull

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Torquay

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Dec

Hartlepool

H

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Stockport

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Boreham Wood

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Woking

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Dec

Dag and Red

A

0

0

D

U

N


Bromley in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance as a guest.
Bromley, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Aldershot

H

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Woking

H

2

2

D

O

G

23 Jan

Halifax

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Solihull

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Yeovil

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Stockport

H

0

2

L

U

N

01 Dec

King’s Lynn

A

4

1

W

O

G

28 Nov

Wrexham

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Notts County and the red line for guest team, Bromley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Notts County

24%

38%

23%

15%

Bromley

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.51 goals and Bromley to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Notts County to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.3 goals and Bromley to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.15

0-1

3.95

1

5.35

2-3

2.02

2

4.00

4+

3.95

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.17

Un 1.5

3.95

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.81

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.23

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.83

3.05

2-3 goals

2.68

3.78

2.77

4+ goals

2.84

3.33

2.88

Ov 1.5

2.73

3.61

2.80

Un 1.5

2.43

3.83

3.05

Ov 2.5

2.36

6.55

2.36

Un 2.5

3.01

2.55

3.62

Ov 3.5

2.84

3.33

2.88

Un 3.5

2.59

3.80

2.85

Goal-Goal

3.27

2.67

3.12

No Goal

2.14

6.79

2.59

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.50

5.55

2.38

NG+Un 2.5

2.23

6.79

2.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wealdstone vs Maidenhead at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wealdstone and Maidenhead for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wealdstone

2.57

2.56

0.2

Draw

3.55

3.72

-1.3

Maidenhead

2.51

2.94

-5.8

Over 2.5

1.69

2.02

-9.7

Under 2.5

2.12

1.98

3.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wealdstone, Under 2.5 (0.2 %, 3.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wealdstone in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance at home.
Wealdstone, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

26 Jan

Altrincham

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Aldershot

H

3

4

L

O

G

09 Jan

Hartlepool

A

1

3

L

O

G

26 Dec

Maidenhead

A

0

4

L

O

N

12 Dec

Weymouth

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Dec

Barnet

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Dec

Torquay

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Nov

Notts County

A

0

3

L

O

N


Maidenhead in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance as a guest.
Maidenhead, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Halifax

A

3

2

W

O

G

27 Jan

Yeovil

H

4

2

W

O

G

23 Jan

Woking

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Wealdstone

H

4

0

W

O

N

08 Dec

Torquay

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Eastleigh

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Altrincham

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Nov

Bromley

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wealdstone and the red line for guest team, Maidenhead.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wealdstone

26%

34%

23%

17%

Maidenhead

29%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.38 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.31 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.85

1

5.35

2-3

2.04

2

4.07

4+

4.00

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.85

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

4.00

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.56

2.92

2-3 goals

2.49

4.08

2.83

4+ goals

2.60

3.29

3.21

Ov 1.5

2.53

3.77

2.94

Un 1.5

2.65

3.56

2.92

Ov 2.5

2.19

6.49

2.57

Un 2.5

3.07

2.62

3.42

Ov 3.5

2.60

3.29

3.21

Un 3.5

2.55

3.88

2.86

Goal-Goal

2.98

2.71

3.38

No Goal

2.21

6.41

2.56

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.31

5.41

2.62

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

6.41

2.61


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Stockport vs Sutton at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stockport and Sutton for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stockport

2.03

2.12

-2.1

Draw

3.47

3.89

-3.1

Sutton

3.28

3.68

-3.3

Over 2.5

1.90

1.97

-1.9

Under 2.5

1.87

2.03

-4.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stockport in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance at home.
Stockport, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Woking

A

4

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Boreham Wood

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Jan

Dag and Red

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Altrincham

H

2

2

D

O

G

28 Dec

Wrexham

H

2

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Altrincham

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Hartlepool

A

0

4

L

O

N

15 Dec

Notts County

A

0

1

L

U

N


Sutton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sutton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance as a guest.
Sutton, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sutton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Hartlepool

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Torquay

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Eastleigh

H

3

0

W

O

N

09 Jan

Altrincham

H

2

2

D

O

G

08 Dec

Chesterfield

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Solihull

H

4

1

W

O

G

01 Dec

Woking

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Halifax

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stockport and the red line for guest team, Sutton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stockport

23%

29%

25%

22%

Sutton

33%

36%

21%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stockport to score 1.48 goals and Sutton to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Stockport to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stockport to score 1.46 goals and Sutton to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Stockport to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.91

1

5.56

2-3

2.05

2

4.22

4+

3.88

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.91

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

3.88

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.37

3.05

2-3 goals

1.96

4.59

3.66

4+ goals

2.03

3.44

4.61

Ov 1.5

1.99

4.12

3.94

Un 1.5

2.67

3.37

3.05

Ov 2.5

1.74

6.77

3.60

Un 2.5

2.75

2.71

3.73

Ov 3.5

2.03

3.44

4.61

Un 3.5

2.16

4.08

3.42

Goal-Goal

2.36

2.86

4.42

No Goal

1.92

6.37

3.10

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

5.48

3.51

NG+Un 2.5

2.16

6.37

2.93


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Halifax vs Hartlepool at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Halifax and Hartlepool for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Halifax

2.73

2.37

5.6

Draw

3.07

3.76

-6.0

Hartlepool

2.56

3.21

-7.9

Over 2.5

1.87

2.00

-3.5

Under 2.5

1.90

2.00

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Halifax (5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Halifax in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance at home.
Halifax, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Maidenhead

H

2

3

L

O

G

26 Jan

Wrexham

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Bromley

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

King’s Lynn

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Dec

Altrincham

H

3

2

W

O

G

26 Dec

Hartlepool

A

1

3

L

O

G

22 Dec

Eastleigh

H

3

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Solihull

A

1

2

L

O

G


Hartlepool in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance as a guest.
Hartlepool, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Sutton

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Weymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

Wealdstone

H

3

1

W

O

G

28 Dec

Notts County

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Halifax

H

3

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Stockport

H

4

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Woking

A

0

3

L

O

N

08 Dec

King’s Lynn

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Halifax and the red line for guest team, Hartlepool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Halifax

24%

33%

24%

19%

Hartlepool

30%

35%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.25 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.38 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.88

1

5.41

2-3

2.05

2

4.12

4+

3.94

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.88

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.00

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.61

3.53