Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Notts County vs Bromley at 02 February 2021
Wealdstone vs Maidenhead at 02 February 2021
Stockport vs Sutton at 02 February 2021
Halifax vs Hartlepool at 02 February 2021
Eastleigh vs Wrexham at 02 February 2021
Chesterfield vs King’s Lynn at 02 February 2021
Boreham Wood vs Weymouth at 02 February 2021
Aldershot vs Barnet at 02 February 2021
Torquay vs Altrincham at 02 February 2021
Notts County vs Bromley at 02 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Notts County and Bromley for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Notts County |
2.07 |
2.65 |
-10.6 |
|
Draw |
3.51 |
3.66 |
-1.2 |
|
Bromley |
3.21 |
2.87 |
3.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.01 |
-4.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.95 |
1.99 |
-1.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Bromley (3.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Notts County in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance at home.
Notts County, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Jan |
Solihull |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
28 Dec |
Hartlepool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Boreham Wood |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Woking |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Dag and Red |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Bromley in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance as a guest.
Bromley, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bromley was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Aldershot |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Woking |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
King’s Lynn |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Nov |
Wrexham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Notts County and the red line for guest team, Bromley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Notts County |
24% |
38% |
23% |
15% |
|
Bromley |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.51 goals and Bromley to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team Notts County to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Notts County to score 1.3 goals and Bromley to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.15 |
0-1 |
3.95 |
|
1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
3.95 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |
|
5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
Gg |
1.81 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |
|
NoG |
2.23 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.43 |
3.83 |
3.05 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.68 |
3.78 |
2.77 |
|
4+ goals |
2.84 |
3.33 |
2.88 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.73 |
3.61 |
2.80 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.83 |
3.05 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
6.55 |
2.36 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.01 |
2.55 |
3.62 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.84 |
3.33 |
2.88 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.80 |
2.85 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.27 |
2.67 |
3.12 |
|
No Goal |
2.14 |
6.79 |
2.59 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.50 |
5.55 |
2.38 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.23 |
6.79 |
2.68 |
Go to Top
Wealdstone vs Maidenhead at 02 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Wealdstone and Maidenhead for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Wealdstone |
2.57 |
2.56 |
0.2 |
|
Draw |
3.55 |
3.72 |
-1.3 |
|
Maidenhead |
2.51 |
2.94 |
-5.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.69 |
2.02 |
-9.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.12 |
1.98 |
3.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Wealdstone, Under 2.5 (0.2 %, 3.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Wealdstone in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wealdstone in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Wealdstone’s performance at home.
Wealdstone, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wealdstone scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wealdstone was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Altrincham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Aldershot |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Hartlepool |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Maidenhead |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Weymouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Barnet |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Torquay |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Nov |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
Maidenhead in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance as a guest.
Maidenhead, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Halifax |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Jan |
Yeovil |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Woking |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Wealdstone |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
Bromley |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wealdstone and the red line for guest team, Maidenhead.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Wealdstone |
26% |
34% |
23% |
17% |
|
Maidenhead |
29% |
35% |
23% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.38 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wealdstone to score 1.31 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.85 |
|
1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
4.00 |
|
3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |
|
5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.00 |
|
NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.65 |
3.56 |
2.92 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.49 |
4.08 |
2.83 |
|
4+ goals |
2.60 |
3.29 |
3.21 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.53 |
3.77 |
2.94 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.65 |
3.56 |
2.92 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
6.49 |
2.57 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.07 |
2.62 |
3.42 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.60 |
3.29 |
3.21 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.55 |
3.88 |
2.86 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.98 |
2.71 |
3.38 |
|
No Goal |
2.21 |
6.41 |
2.56 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |
5.41 |
2.62 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
6.41 |
2.61 |
Go to Top
Stockport vs Sutton at 02 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Stockport and Sutton for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Stockport |
2.03 |
2.12 |
-2.1 |
|
Draw |
3.47 |
3.89 |
-3.1 |
|
Sutton |
3.28 |
3.68 |
-3.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.90 |
1.97 |
-1.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.87 |
2.03 |
-4.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Stockport in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance at home.
Stockport, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 12 points, 57.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stockport was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Woking |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Dag and Red |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Altrincham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Wrexham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Altrincham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Hartlepool |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Sutton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sutton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance as a guest.
Sutton, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sutton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Hartlepool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Torquay |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Eastleigh |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Altrincham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
08 Dec |
Chesterfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Solihull |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Woking |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stockport and the red line for guest team, Sutton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Stockport |
23% |
29% |
25% |
22% |
|
Sutton |
33% |
36% |
21% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stockport to score 1.48 goals and Sutton to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Stockport to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stockport to score 1.46 goals and Sutton to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Stockport to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.91 |
|
1 |
5.56 |
2-3 |
2.05 |
|
2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
3.88 |
|
3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.91 |
|
5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
|
Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |
|
NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.67 |
3.37 |
3.05 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.96 |
4.59 |
3.66 |
|
4+ goals |
2.03 |
3.44 |
4.61 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.99 |
4.12 |
3.94 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.67 |
3.37 |
3.05 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
6.77 |
3.60 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.75 |
2.71 |
3.73 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.03 |
3.44 |
4.61 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.16 |
4.08 |
3.42 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.36 |
2.86 |
4.42 |
|
No Goal |
1.92 |
6.37 |
3.10 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
5.48 |
3.51 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
6.37 |
2.93 |
Go to Top
Halifax vs Hartlepool at 02 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Halifax and Hartlepool for Conference (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Halifax |
2.73 |
2.37 |
5.6 |
|
Draw |
3.07 |
3.76 |
-6.0 |
|
Hartlepool |
2.56 |
3.21 |
-7.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.87 |
2.00 |
-3.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.00 |
-2.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Halifax (5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Halifax in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance at home.
Halifax, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Maidenhead |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
King’s Lynn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Altrincham |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Hartlepool |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Eastleigh |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Hartlepool in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance as a guest.
Hartlepool, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Sutton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Wealdstone |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Notts County |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Halifax |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Woking |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
08 Dec |
King’s Lynn |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Halifax and the red line for guest team, Hartlepool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Halifax |
24% |
33% |
24% |
19% |
|
Hartlepool |
30% |
35% |
22% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.25 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.38 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.16 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.88 |
|
1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.05 |
|
2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.94 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.88 |
|
5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |
|
NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.61 |
3.53 |