Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Accrington vs Bristol Rvs at 02 February 2021
Blackpool vs Northampton at 02 February 2021
Charlton vs Portsmouth at 02 February 2021
Shrewsbury vs Crewe at 02 February 2021
Swindon vs Wigan at 02 February 2021
Accrington vs Bristol Rvs at 02 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Accrington and Bristol Rvs for League One (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Accrington |
2.00 |
1.96 |
1.0 |
|
Draw |
3.59 |
3.94 |
-2.5 |
|
Bristol Rvs |
3.62 |
4.26 |
-4.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.06 |
-7.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.06 |
1.94 |
3.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Accrington, Under 2.5 (1 %, 3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Accrington in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Accrington in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance at home.
Accrington, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Accrington was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Plymouth |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Hull |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Hull |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Gillingham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Jan |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Wigan |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
Bristol Rvs in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol Rvs in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance as a guest.
Bristol Rvs, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Rochdale |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Crewe |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Blackpool |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Plymouth |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Accrington and the red line for guest team, Bristol Rvs.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Accrington |
19% |
33% |
29% |
20% |
|
Bristol Rvs |
38% |
35% |
16% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.63 goals and Bristol Rvs to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and the home team Accrington to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.5 goals and Bristol Rvs to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Accrington to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.83 |
|
1 |
5.26 |
2-3 |
1.99 |
|
2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.26 |
|
3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |
|
5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
|
6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |
|
Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.26 |
|
NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.10 |
3.68 |
3.95 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.77 |
4.37 |
4.87 |
|
4+ goals |
2.30 |
3.51 |
3.56 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.91 |
4.05 |
4.36 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.10 |
3.68 |
3.95 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
7.22 |
3.48 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
2.76 |
5.35 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.51 |
3.56 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.87 |
4.10 |
4.51 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.49 |
2.76 |
4.23 |
|
No Goal |
1.61 |
6.97 |
4.27 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
5.79 |
3.26 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.72 |
6.97 |
4.16 |
Go to Top
Blackpool vs Northampton at 02 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Blackpool and Northampton for League One (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Blackpool |
1.59 |
1.92 |
-10.8 |
|
Draw |
3.72 |
3.92 |
-1.4 |
|
Northampton |
6.35 |
4.44 |
6.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.11 |
-3.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.90 |
-1.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Northampton (6.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Blackpool in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackpool in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance at home.
Blackpool, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackpool scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Wigan |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Hull |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Hull |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Oxford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Northampton in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance as a guest.
Northampton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Gillingham |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Doncaster |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Blackpool and the red line for guest team, Northampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Blackpool |
18% |
35% |
28% |
20% |
|
Northampton |
39% |
35% |
16% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.78 goals and Northampton to score 0.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Blackpool to win by 1.1 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackpool to score 1.5 goals and Northampton to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Blackpool to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.76 |
|
1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
1.96 |
|
2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.41 |
|
3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |
|
5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
|
6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
|
Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |
|
NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.97 |
3.86 |
4.29 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.78 |
4.17 |
5.04 |
|
4+ goals |
2.27 |
3.55 |
3.60 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.91 |
3.96 |
4.49 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.97 |
3.86 |
4.29 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
7.44 |
3.50 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.75 |
5.84 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.55 |
3.60 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.84 |
4.06 |
4.75 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.52 |
2.71 |
4.27 |
|
No Goal |
1.55 |
7.22 |
4.61 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
5.97 |
3.24 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.65 |
7.22 |
4.49 |
Go to Top
Charlton vs Portsmouth at 02 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Charlton and Portsmouth for League One (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Charlton |
2.82 |
2.77 |
0.6 |
|
Draw |
3.27 |
3.73 |
-3.8 |
|
Portsmouth |
2.50 |
2.70 |
-3.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.92 |
2.00 |
-2.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.89 |
2.00 |
-2.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Charlton (0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Charlton in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Charlton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance at home.
Charlton, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Charlton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Charlton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Jan |
Rochdale |
H |
4 |
4 |
D |
O |
G |
|
08 Jan |
Accrington |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Hull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
Portsmouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance as a guest.
Portsmouth, as a guest, had 7 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 23 points, 76.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Hull |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
19 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
18 Dec |
Hull |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Ipswich |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Charlton and the red line for guest team, Portsmouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Charlton |
29% |
31% |
24% |
16% |
|
Portsmouth |
24% |
38% |
26% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.21 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Charlton to score 1.27 goals and Portsmouth to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.95 |
|
1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
3.92 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |
|
5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |
|
NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.42 |
3.61 |
2.32 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.66 |
4.25 |
2.57 |
|
4+ goals |
2.48 |
3.11 |
3.64 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.78 |
2.85 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.42 |
3.61 |
2.32 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
6.10 |
2.67 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.82 |
2.69 |
2.72 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.48 |
3.11 |
3.64 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.88 |
4.01 |
2.48 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.81 |
2.73 |
3.60 |
|
No Goal |
2.71 |
6.59 |
2.09 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
5.17 |
2.83 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.94 |
6.59 |
2.09 |
Go to Top
Shrewsbury vs Crewe at 02 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Shrewsbury and Crewe for League One (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Shrewsbury |
2.56 |
2.25 |
5.4 |
|
Draw |
3.29 |
3.65 |
-3.0 |
|
Crewe |
2.75 |
3.55 |
-8.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.18 |
-4.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.85 |
-0.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Shrewsbury (5.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Shrewsbury in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance at home.
Shrewsbury, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Sunderland |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Blackpool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Wigan |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Hull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Charlton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Crewe in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Crewe in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance as a guest.
Crewe, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crewe was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Ipswich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Plymouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Shrewsbury and the red line for guest team, Crewe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Shrewsbury |
22% |
38% |
24% |
17% |
|
Crewe |
34% |
36% |
21% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.27 goals and Crewe to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.35 goals and Crewe to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.57 |
|
1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
2.00 |
|
2 |
3.83 |
4+ |
4.57 |
|
3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.57 |
|
5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
|
6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |
|
Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |
|
NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.20 |
3.73 |
3.59 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.25 |
3.77 |
3.46 |