# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Accrington vs Bristol Rvs at 02 February 2021**** Blackpool vs Northampton at 02 February 2021**** Charlton vs Portsmouth at 02 February 2021**** Shrewsbury vs Crewe at 02 February 2021**** Swindon vs Wigan at 02 February 2021**

###
Accrington vs Bristol Rvs at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Accrington** and **Bristol Rvs** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **02 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Accrington |
2.00 |
1.96 |
1.0 |

Draw |
3.59 |
3.94 |
-2.5 |

Bristol Rvs |
3.62 |
4.26 |
-4.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.06 |
-7.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.06 |
1.94 |
3.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Accrington, Under 2.5 (1 %, 3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Accrington** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Accrington** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance** at home**.

Accrington,** at home**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Plymouth |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Hull |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Hull |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Gillingham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Jan |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Wigan |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**Bristol Rvs** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bristol Rvs** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol Rvs’s performance** as a guest**.

Bristol Rvs,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Bristol Rvs scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bristol Rvs was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Rochdale |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Crewe |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Blackpool |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Plymouth |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Accrington** and the red line for guest team, **Bristol Rvs. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Accrington |
19% |
33% |
29% |
20% |

Bristol Rvs |
38% |
35% |
16% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Accrington** to score **1.63 ** goals and **Bristol Rvs** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.69** goals in the game and the home team **Accrington ** to win by **0.57** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Accrington** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Bristol Rvs** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Accrington ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.26 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.26 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
15.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.95 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.26 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.10 |
3.68 |
3.95 |

2-3 goals |
1.77 |
4.37 |
4.87 |

4+ goals |
2.30 |
3.51 |
3.56 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.91 |
4.05 |
4.36 |

Un 1.5 |
2.10 |
3.68 |
3.95 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
7.22 |
3.48 |

Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
2.76 |
5.35 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.51 |
3.56 |

Un 3.5 |
1.87 |
4.10 |
4.51 |

Goal-Goal |
2.49 |
2.76 |
4.23 |

No Goal |
1.61 |
6.97 |
4.27 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
5.79 |
3.26 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.72 |
6.97 |
4.16 |

####
Go to Top

###
Blackpool vs Northampton at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Blackpool** and **Northampton** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **02 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Blackpool |
1.59 |
1.92 |
-10.8 |

Draw |
3.72 |
3.92 |
-1.4 |

Northampton |
6.35 |
4.44 |
6.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.98 |
2.11 |
-3.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.90 |
-1.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Northampton (6.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Blackpool** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Blackpool** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Blackpool’s performance** at home**.

Blackpool,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Blackpool scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Blackpool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Wigan |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Hull |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Hull |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Oxford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Northampton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Northampton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance** as a guest**.

Northampton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Northampton scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Gillingham |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Doncaster |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Blackpool** and the red line for guest team, **Northampton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Blackpool |
18% |
35% |
28% |
20% |

Northampton |
39% |
35% |
16% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Blackpool** to score **1.78 ** goals and **Northampton** to score **0.68 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Blackpool ** to win by **1.1** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Blackpool** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Northampton** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Blackpool ** to win by **0.53** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.76 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.41 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.97 |
3.86 |
4.29 |

2-3 goals |
1.78 |
4.17 |
5.04 |

4+ goals |
2.27 |
3.55 |
3.60 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.91 |
3.96 |
4.49 |

Un 1.5 |
1.97 |
3.86 |
4.29 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
7.44 |
3.50 |

Un 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.75 |
5.84 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.55 |
3.60 |

Un 3.5 |
1.84 |
4.06 |
4.75 |

Goal-Goal |
2.52 |
2.71 |
4.27 |

No Goal |
1.55 |
7.22 |
4.61 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
5.97 |
3.24 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.65 |
7.22 |
4.49 |

####
Go to Top

###
Charlton vs Portsmouth at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Charlton** and **Portsmouth** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **02 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Charlton |
2.82 |
2.77 |
0.6 |

Draw |
3.27 |
3.73 |
-3.8 |

Portsmouth |
2.50 |
2.70 |
-3.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.92 |
2.00 |
-2.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.89 |
2.00 |
-2.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Charlton (0.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Charlton** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Charlton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Charlton’s performance** at home**.

Charlton,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Charlton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Charlton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Swindon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Peterboro |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Rochdale |
H |
4 |
4 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Jan |
Accrington |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Hull |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Portsmouth** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Portsmouth** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Portsmouth,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 23 points, 76.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Hull |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Dec |
Hull |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Ipswich |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Charlton** and the red line for guest team, **Portsmouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Charlton |
29% |
31% |
24% |
16% |

Portsmouth |
24% |
38% |
26% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Charlton** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Charlton** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Portsmouth** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.95 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.42 |
3.61 |
2.32 |

2-3 goals |
2.66 |
4.25 |
2.57 |

4+ goals |
2.48 |
3.11 |
3.64 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.78 |
2.85 |

Un 1.5 |
3.42 |
3.61 |
2.32 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
6.10 |
2.67 |

Un 2.5 |
3.82 |
2.69 |
2.72 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.48 |
3.11 |
3.64 |

Un 3.5 |
2.88 |
4.01 |
2.48 |

Goal-Goal |
2.81 |
2.73 |
3.60 |

No Goal |
2.71 |
6.59 |
2.09 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
5.17 |
2.83 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.94 |
6.59 |
2.09 |

####
Go to Top

###
Shrewsbury vs Crewe at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Shrewsbury** and **Crewe** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **02 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Shrewsbury |
2.56 |
2.25 |
5.4 |

Draw |
3.29 |
3.65 |
-3.0 |

Crewe |
2.75 |
3.55 |
-8.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.18 |
-4.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.85 |
-0.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Shrewsbury (5.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Shrewsbury** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Shrewsbury** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance** at home**.

Shrewsbury,** at home**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Sunderland |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Blackpool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Wigan |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Dec |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Hull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Charlton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Crewe** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Crewe** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance** as a guest**.

Crewe,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Ipswich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Jan |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Plymouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Shrewsbury** and the red line for guest team, **Crewe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Shrewsbury |
22% |
38% |
24% |
17% |

Crewe |
34% |
36% |
21% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **1.2 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.57 |

1 |
4.88 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.83 |
4+ |
4.57 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.57 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.20 |
3.73 |
3.59 |

2-3 goals |
2.25 |
3.77 |
3.46 |