Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Mansfield vs Bolton at 02 February 2021
Salford vs Colchester at 02 February 2021
Carlisle vs Forest Green at 02 February 2021
Cheltenham vs Barrow at 02 February 2021
Stevenage vs Exeter at 02 February 2021
Crawley Town vs Leyton Orient at 02 February 2021
Mansfield vs Bolton at 02 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Mansfield and Bolton for League Two (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Mansfield |
2.16 |
2.30 |
-2.8 |
|
Draw |
3.43 |
3.62 |
-1.5 |
|
Bolton |
3.30 |
3.45 |
-1.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.97 |
2.17 |
-4.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
1.86 |
-0.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Mansfield in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mansfield in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Mansfield’s performance at home.
Mansfield, at home, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Mansfield scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mansfield was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
23 Jan |
Southend |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Jan |
Oldham |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
05 Jan |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Southend |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Bolton in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance as a guest.
Bolton, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mansfield and the red line for guest team, Bolton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Mansfield |
23% |
38% |
22% |
18% |
|
Bolton |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.42 goals and Bolton to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Mansfield to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mansfield to score 1.35 goals and Bolton to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.56 |
|
1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.48 |
|
3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.56 |
|
5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |
|
NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.30 |
3.80 |
3.31 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.36 |
3.54 |
3.41 |
|
4+ goals |
2.19 |
3.60 |
3.78 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.30 |
3.55 |
3.52 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.30 |
3.80 |
3.31 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
7.44 |
2.92 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.79 |
2.51 |
4.11 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.19 |
3.60 |
3.78 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.34 |
3.63 |
3.37 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.84 |
2.57 |
3.85 |
|
No Goal |
1.91 |
6.47 |
3.11 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
6.13 |
2.81 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
6.47 |
3.04 |
Go to Top
Salford vs Colchester at 02 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Salford and Colchester for League Two (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Salford |
1.62 |
2.22 |
-16.7 |
|
Draw |
3.90 |
3.73 |
1.2 |
|
Colchester |
5.44 |
3.56 |
9.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
2.10 |
-3.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.91 |
-0.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Colchester (1.2 %, 9.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Salford in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance at home.
Salford, at home, had 5 wins, 7 draws, no defeats and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Jan |
Harrogate |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Jan |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Colchester in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Colchester in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Colchester’s performance as a guest.
Colchester, as a guest, had one win, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 23.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Colchester scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Colchester was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Morecambe |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Southend |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Morecambe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salford and the red line for guest team, Colchester.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Salford |
23% |
32% |
28% |
17% |
|
Colchester |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salford to score 1.76 goals and Colchester to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Salford to win by 1.02 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salford to score 1.38 goals and Colchester to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.73 |
|
1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
1.99 |
|
2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.35 |
|
3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.73 |
|
5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |
|
Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |
|
NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.58 |
3.48 |
3.08 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.02 |
4.25 |
3.69 |
|
4+ goals |
2.32 |
3.15 |
3.97 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.11 |
3.83 |
3.77 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.48 |
3.08 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
6.52 |
3.26 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.70 |
2.69 |
3.88 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.32 |
3.15 |
3.97 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.19 |
3.95 |
3.45 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.56 |
2.70 |
4.19 |
|
No Goal |
1.94 |
6.30 |
3.07 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
5.44 |
3.23 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.30 |
3.01 |
Go to Top
Carlisle vs Forest Green at 02 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Carlisle and Forest Green for League Two (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Carlisle |
1.81 |
2.42 |
-13.9 |
|
Draw |
3.67 |
3.65 |
0.1 |
|
Forest Green |
4.25 |
3.19 |
7.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.99 |
2.21 |
-5.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.83 |
-0.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Forest Green (0.1 %, 7.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Carlisle in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance at home.
Carlisle, at home, had 9 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 28 points, 84.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Exeter |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Dec |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Forest Green in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Forest Green in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Forest Green’s performance as a guest.
Forest Green, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Forest Green scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Forest Green was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Crawley Town |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Carlisle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Carlisle and the red line for guest team, Forest Green.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Carlisle |
27% |
32% |
26% |
14% |
|
Forest Green |
32% |
37% |
21% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.59 goals and Forest Green to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.28 goals and Forest Green to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.46 |
|
1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.65 |
|
3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.46 |
|
5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
|
6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
|
Gg |
2.02 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.65 |
|
NoG |
1.98 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.83 |
3.32 |
2.89 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.18 |
4.24 |
3.28 |
|
4+ goals |
2.59 |
3.07 |
3.47 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.29 |
3.80 |
3.34 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.83 |
3.32 |
2.89 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
6.47 |
2.89 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.93 |
2.68 |
3.51 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.59 |
3.07 |
3.47 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.38 |
3.85 |
3.13 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.75 |
2.65 |
3.87 |
|
No Goal |
2.17 |
5.80 |
2.73 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
5.40 |
2.95 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
5.80 |
2.76 |
Go to Top
Cheltenham vs Barrow at 02 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Cheltenham and Barrow for League Two (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Cheltenham |
1.88 |
2.17 |
-7.1 |
|
Draw |
3.53 |
3.75 |
-1.7 |
|
Barrow |
4.00 |
3.68 |
2.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
2.09 |
-2.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.92 |
-3.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Barrow (2.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Cheltenham in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance at home.
Cheltenham, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Oldham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Colchester |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Barrow in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barrow in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Barrow’s performance as a guest.
Barrow, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 19.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Barrow scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barrow was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Southend |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Port Vale |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Cheltenham |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Crawley Town |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cheltenham and the red line for guest team, Barrow.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Cheltenham |
22% |
33% |
26% |
18% |
|
Barrow |
33% |
37% |
20% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.54 goals and Barrow to score 0.89 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Cheltenham to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cheltenham to score 1.41 goals and Barrow to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Cheltenham to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.76 |
|
1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
1.99 |
|
2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.31 |
|
3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |
|
5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |
|
Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.31 |
|
NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.44 |
3.59 |
3.20 |
|
2-3 goals |