2021 02 02 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bordeaux vs Lille at 03 February 2021
Reims vs Angers at 03 February 2021
Strasbourg vs Brest at 03 February 2021
St Etienne vs Nantes at 03 February 2021
Rennes vs Lorient at 03 February 2021
Paris SG vs Nimes at 03 February 2021
Monaco vs Nice at 03 February 2021
Metz vs Montpellier at 03 February 2021
Dijon vs Lyon at 03 February 2021
Lens vs Marseille at 03 February 2021


Bordeaux vs Lille at 03 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bordeaux and Lille for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 03 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bordeaux

3.91

2.72

11.2

Draw

3.19

3.41

-2.0

Lille

2.11

2.93

-13.3

Over 2.5

2.40

2.61

-3.4

Under 2.5

1.59

1.62

-1.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bordeaux (11.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bordeaux in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bordeaux in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bordeaux’s performance at home.
Bordeaux, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Bordeaux scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bordeaux was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Jan

Lyon

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Jan

Angers

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Jan

Nice

A

3

0

W

O

N

09 Jan

Lorient

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Metz

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Dec

Reims

H

1

3

L

O

G

20 Dec

Strasbourg

A

2

0

W

U

N

16 Dec

St Etienne

H

1

2

L

O

G


Lille in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lille in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance as a guest.
Lille, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 21 points, 70.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Dijon

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Rennes

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Reims

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Nimes

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Angers

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Dec

Montpellier

A

3

2

W

O

G

20 Dec

Paris SG

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Dec

Dijon

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bordeaux and the red line for guest team, Lille.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bordeaux

31%

40%

20%

9%

Lille

36%

36%

12%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bordeaux to score 0.85 goals and Lille to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and the guest team Lille to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bordeaux to score 1.08 goals and Lille to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.09

0-1

2.75

1

3.94

2-3

2.19

2

3.95

4+

5.52

3

4.93

Ov 1.5

1.57

4

8.20

Un 1.5

2.75

5

22.73

Ov 2.5

2.60

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.62

Gg

2.25

Ov 3.5

5.52

NoG

1.80

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.53

3.31

3.31

2-3 goals

2.55

3.19

3.40

4+ goals

4.11

4.52

1.87

Ov 1.5

2.86

3.48

2.76

Un 1.5

2.53

3.31

3.31

Ov 2.5

2.56

9.60

1.98

Un 2.5

2.84

2.44

4.20

Ov 3.5

4.11

4.52

1.87

Un 3.5

2.54

3.24

3.36

Goal-Goal

3.80

2.43

3.07

No Goal

2.22

5.05

2.84

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.58

7.55

2.08

NG+Un 2.5

2.18

5.05

3.22


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Reims vs Angers at 03 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reims and Angers for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 03 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reims

2.66

2.19

8.1

Draw

3.08

3.68

-5.3

Angers

2.88

3.69

-7.6

Over 2.5

2.45

2.48

-0.5

Under 2.5

1.57

1.68

-4.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reims (8.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reims in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reims in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance at home.
Reims, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Strasbourg

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Brest

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Lille

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Jan

St Etienne

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Dijon

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Dec

Bordeaux

A

3

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Marseille

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Nantes

H

3

2

W

O

G


Angers in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Angers in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Angers’s performance as a guest.
Angers, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Angers scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Angers was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Nimes

H

3

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Bordeaux

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Paris SG

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

Monaco

A

0

3

L

O

N

06 Jan

Lille

A

2

1

W

O

G

23 Dec

Marseille

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Strasbourg

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reims and the red line for guest team, Angers.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reims

27%

31%

30%

12%

Angers

40%

35%

13%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reims to score 1.09 goals and Angers to score 1.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reims to score 1.26 goals and Angers to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the home team Reims to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.26

0-1

3.04

1

4.52

2-3

2.03

2

3.73

4+

5.62

3

4.44

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.62

Un 1.5

3.04

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.48

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.29

Ov 3.5

5.62

NoG

1.77

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.61

3.05

3.46

2-3 goals

1.79

4.48

4.56

4+ goals

3.18

3.36

2.58

Ov 1.5

2.03

4.12

3.79

Un 1.5

2.61

3.05

3.46

Ov 2.5

1.93

7.60

2.86

Un 2.5

2.41

2.74

4.56

Ov 3.5

3.18

3.36

2.58

Un 3.5

2.05

3.77

4.05

Goal-Goal

2.69

2.67

3.93

No Goal

1.91

5.22

3.50

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.01

6.15

2.94

NG+Un 2.5

1.96

5.22

3.72


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Strasbourg vs Brest at 03 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Strasbourg and Brest for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 03 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Strasbourg

2.17

2.10

1.5

Draw

3.35

3.75

-3.2

Brest

3.45

3.89

-3.3

Over 2.5

1.88

2.35

-10.6

Under 2.5

1.95

1.74

6.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Strasbourg, Under 2.5 (1.5 %, 6.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Strasbourg in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Strasbourg in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Strasbourg’s performance at home.
Strasbourg, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Strasbourg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Reims

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Jan

Dijon

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Jan

St Etienne

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Lens

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Nimes

H

5

0

W

O

N

23 Dec

Paris SG

A

0

4

L

O

N

20 Dec

Bordeaux

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Dec

Angers

A

2

0

W

U

N


Brest in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brest in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brest’s performance as a guest.
Brest, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 21.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brest scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brest was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Metz

H

2

4

L

O

G

24 Jan

Reims

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

Rennes

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Jan

Paris SG

A

0

3

L

O

N

06 Jan

Nice

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Dec

Lens

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Dec

Montpellier

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Lyon

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Strasbourg and the red line for guest team, Brest.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Strasbourg

25%

30%

31%

14%

Brest

39%

36%

16%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 1.5 goals and Brest to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Strasbourg to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Strasbourg to score 1.33 goals and Brest to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and the home team Strasbourg to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.10

0-1

3.27

1

4.83

2-3

1.98

2

3.72

4+

5.26

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.94

Un 1.5

3.27

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.35

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.74

Gg

2.20

Ov 3.5

5.26

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.62

3.09

3.40

2-3 goals

1.75

4.71

4.62

4+ goals

2.71

3.06

3.28

Ov 1.5

1.94

4.11

4.16

Un 1.5

2.62

3.09

3.40

Ov 2.5

1.81

6.85

3.32

Un 2.5

2.40

2.79

4.46

Ov 3.5

2.71

3.06

3.28

Un 3.5

2.00

3.93

4.07

Goal-Goal

2.50

2.69

4.38

No Goal

1.86

5.51

3.56

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

5.61

3.35

NG+Un 2.5

1.95

5.51

3.63


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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St Etienne vs Nantes at 03 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between St Etienne and Nantes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 03 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

St Etienne

2.14

2.24

-2.1

Draw

3.20

3.64

-3.8

Nantes

3.74

3.61

1.0

Over 2.5

2.27

2.41

-2.6

Under 2.5

1.65

1.71

-2.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nantes (1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

St Etienne in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, St Etienne in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at St Etienne’s performance at home.
St Etienne, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, St Etienne scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of St Etienne was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Nice

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Lyon

H

0

5

L

O

N

17 Jan

Strasbourg

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

Reims

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Jan

Paris SG

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Monaco

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Nimes

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Dec

Bordeaux

A

2

1

W

O

G


Nantes in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nantes in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nantes’s performance as a guest.
Nantes, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 18.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nantes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Monaco

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Jan

Metz

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Jan

Lens

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Montpellier

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Jan

Rennes

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Dec

Lyon

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Dec

Angers

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Dec

Reims

A

2

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, St Etienne and the red line for guest team, Nantes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

St Etienne

26%

33%

29%

12%

Nantes

38%

36%

16%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) St Etienne to score 1.33 goals and Nantes to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team St Etienne to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) St Etienne to score 1.27 goals and Nantes to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.20

0-1

3.15

1

4.57

2-3

2.01

2

3.73

4+

5.38

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.46

4

8.06

Un 1.5

3.15

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.40

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

2.17

Ov 3.5

5.38

NoG

1.85

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.56

3.23

3.34

2-3 goals