Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Man United vs Southampton at 02 February 2021
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace at 02 February 2021
Sheffield United vs West Brom at 02 February 2021
Wolves vs Arsenal at 02 February 2021
Burnley vs Man City at 03 February 2021
Fulham vs Leicester at 03 February 2021
Leeds vs Everton at 03 February 2021
Liverpool vs Brighton at 03 February 2021
Aston Villa vs West Ham at 03 February 2021
Tottenham vs Chelsea at 04 February 2021
Man United vs Southampton at 02 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Man United and Southampton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Man United |
1.47 |
2.29 |
-24.4 |
|
Draw |
4.52 |
3.57 |
5.9 |
|
Southampton |
7.29 |
3.52 |
14.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.63 |
2.21 |
-16.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.34 |
1.82 |
12.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Southampton, Under 2.5 (5.9 %, 14.7 %, 12.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Man United in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man United in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance at home.
Man United, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man United was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Jan |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Jan |
Fulham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
Liverpool |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Jan |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
01 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
Southampton in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance as a guest.
Southampton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Man City |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Arsenal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man United and the red line for guest team, Southampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Man United |
21% |
43% |
16% |
20% |
|
Southampton |
34% |
36% |
19% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man United to score 2.23 goals and Southampton to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.93 goals in the game and the home team Man United to win by 1.53 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man United to score 1.34 goals and Southampton to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.33 |
|
1 |
4.42 |
2-3 |
2.10 |
|
2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.48 |
|
3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |
|
4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.33 |
|
5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |
|
NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.01 |
4.05 |
3.90 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.66 |
3.08 |
3.34 |
|
4+ goals |
2.06 |
4.37 |
3.48 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.40 |
3.38 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.01 |
4.05 |
3.90 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
8.84 |
2.70 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.70 |
2.40 |
4.69 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.06 |
4.37 |
3.48 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.37 |
3.39 |
3.53 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.13 |
2.50 |
3.57 |
|
No Goal |
1.79 |
6.57 |
3.47 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
7.04 |
2.49 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.94 |
6.57 |
3.37 |
Go to Top
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace at 02 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Newcastle and Crystal Palace for Premier League (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Newcastle |
2.88 |
2.16 |
11.6 |
|
Draw |
3.20 |
3.83 |
-5.1 |
|
Crystal Palace |
2.65 |
3.64 |
-10.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.01 |
5.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.99 |
-10.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Newcastle, Over 2.5 (11.6 %, 5.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Newcastle in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance at home.
Newcastle, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Everton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
18 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
12 Jan |
Sheffield United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Man City |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Crystal Palace in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crystal Palace in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance as a guest.
Crystal Palace, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
West Ham |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
14 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Sheffield United |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Dec |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
7 |
L |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newcastle and the red line for guest team, Crystal Palace.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Newcastle |
22% |
33% |
24% |
21% |
|
Crystal Palace |
34% |
36% |
19% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.09 goals and Crystal Palace to score 1.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.44 goals and Crystal Palace to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Newcastle to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.79 |
|
1 |
5.29 |
2-3 |
2.07 |
|
2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
3.97 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.79 |
|
5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |
|
NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.40 |
3.52 |
3.34 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.04 |
4.14 |
3.72 |
|
4+ goals |
2.17 |
3.60 |
3.82 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.08 |
3.94 |
3.76 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.40 |
3.52 |
3.34 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
7.10 |
3.23 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.65 |
2.62 |
4.16 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.60 |
3.82 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.16 |
3.90 |
3.58 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.57 |
2.76 |
4.03 |
|
No Goal |
1.85 |
6.45 |
3.29 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
5.70 |
3.12 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
6.45 |
3.19 |
Go to Top
Sheffield United vs West Brom at 02 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Sheffield United and West Brom for Premier League (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Sheffield United |
2.00 |
2.35 |
-7.4 |
|
Draw |
3.36 |
3.80 |
-3.4 |
|
West Brom |
4.12 |
3.21 |
6.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.33 |
2.00 |
7.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.63 |
2.00 |
-11.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at West Brom, Over 2.5 (6.9 %, 7.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Sheffield United in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield United in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sheffield United’s performance at home.
Sheffield United, at home, had one win, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield United scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield United was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Jan |
Man United |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Newcastle |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Everton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
West Brom in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Brom in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at West Brom’s performance as a guest.
West Brom, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, West Brom scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Brom was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Fulham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Man City |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
19 Jan |
West Ham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Wolves |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Leeds |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sheffield United and the red line for guest team, West Brom.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Sheffield United |
25% |
31% |
25% |
19% |
|
West Brom |
31% |
35% |
20% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sheffield United to score 1.37 goals and West Brom to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Sheffield United to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sheffield United to score 1.38 goals and West Brom to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.83 |
|
1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
2.08 |
|
2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
3.86 |
|
3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |
|
5 |
13.70 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.86 |
|
NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.69 |
3.39 |
3.00 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.14 |
4.40 |
3.27 |
|
4+ goals |
2.49 |
3.36 |
3.32 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.25 |
3.97 |
3.28 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.69 |
3.39 |
3.00 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
6.52 |
2.87 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.85 |
2.68 |
3.64 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.49 |
3.36 |
3.32 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.31 |
3.98 |
3.17 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.70 |
2.79 |
3.68 |
|
No Goal |
2.06 |
6.25 |
2.81 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
5.32 |
2.91 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.25 |
2.84 |
Go to Top
Wolves vs Arsenal at 02 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Wolves and Arsenal for Premier League (England), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Wolves |
3.65 |
2.87 |
7.4 |
|
Draw |
3.34 |
3.91 |
-4.4 |
|
Arsenal |
2.16 |
2.53 |
-6.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.27 |
1.91 |
8.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
2.10 |
-12.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Wolves, Over 2.5 (7.4 %, 8.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Wolves in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wolves in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Wolves’s performance at home.
Wolves, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wolves scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wolves was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Everton |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Brighton |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Man United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
21 Dec |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Arsenal in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Arsenal in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance as a guest.
Arsenal, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Man United |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Southampton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
18 Jan |
Newcastle |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
14 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
West Brom |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Everton |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wolves and the red line for guest team, Arsenal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Wolves |
31% |
24% |
32% |
12% |
|
Arsenal |
25% |
33% |
23% |
19% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wolves to score 0.92 goals and Arsenal to score 1.33 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the guest team Arsenal to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wolves to score 1.25 goals and Arsenal to score 1.35 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
4.13 |
|
1 |
6.13 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.29 |
4+ |
3.66 |
|
3 |
3.97 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.13 |
|
5 |
11.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.90 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.11 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.66 |
|
NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |