# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Gil Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira at 02 February 2021**** Belenenses vs Porto at 04 February 2021**** Farense vs Santa Clara at 04 February 2021**

###
Gil Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Gil Vicente** and **Pacos Ferreira** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **02 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Gil Vicente |
3.12 |
2.36 |
10.3 |

Draw |
3.01 |
3.62 |
-5.6 |

Pacos Ferreira |
2.45 |
3.33 |
-10.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.65 |
1.90 |
14.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.50 |
2.11 |
-19.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Gil Vicente, Over 2.5 (10.3 %, 14.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Gil Vicente** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Gil Vicente** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance** at home**.

Gil Vicente,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

26 Jan |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Maritimo |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Farense |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Jan |
Belenenses |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Famalicao |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Benfica |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Nov |
Rio Ave |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Pacos Ferreira** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pacos Ferreira** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance** as a guest**.

Pacos Ferreira,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

24 Jan |
Maritimo |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Belenenses |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Rio Ave |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Farense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Boavista |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Dec |
Benfica |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

01 Dec |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Gil Vicente** and the red line for guest team, **Pacos Ferreira. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Gil Vicente |
22% |
32% |
24% |
21% |

Pacos Ferreira |
22% |
56% |
1% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Gil Vicente** to score **0.93 ** goals and **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.09 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.02** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.16** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Gil Vicente** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.67** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
20.83 |
0-1 |
4.17 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
2.13 |

2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
3.44 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.26 |
Un 1.5 |
4.17 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |

6+ |
22.22 |
Un 2.5 |
2.10 |

Gg |
1.64 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.44 |

NoG |
2.57 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.43 |
5.00 |
1.97 |

2-3 goals |
2.00 |
2.61 |
8.53 |

4+ goals |
2.42 |
6.06 |
2.37 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.15 |
3.33 |
4.27 |

Un 1.5 |
3.43 |
5.00 |
1.97 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
10.92 |
2.99 |

Un 2.5 |
3.87 |
2.09 |
3.81 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.42 |
6.06 |
2.37 |

Un 3.5 |
2.33 |
3.11 |
4.01 |

Goal-Goal |
2.39 |
2.68 |
4.81 |

No Goal |
2.32 |
8.10 |
2.25 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
8.98 |
3.39 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.41 |
8.10 |
2.37 |

####
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###
Belenenses vs Porto at 04 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Belenenses** and **Porto** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **04 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Belenenses |
8.02 |
4.78 |
8.5 |

Draw |
4.56 |
3.97 |
3.3 |

Porto |
1.38 |
1.86 |
-18.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.82 |
2.11 |
-7.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
1.90 |
2.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Belenenses, Draw, Under 2.5 (8.5 %, 3.3 %, 2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Belenenses** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Belenenses** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Belenenses’s performance** at home**.

Belenenses,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Belenenses scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Belenenses was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 Feb |
Santa Clara |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Gil Vicente |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Maritimo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Dec |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Porto** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Porto** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance** as a guest**.

Porto,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 76.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Porto** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 Feb |
Rio Ave |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Farense |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Jan |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Jan |
Famalicao |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Moreirense |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
Guimaraes |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Nacional |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Tondela |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Belenenses** and the red line for guest team, **Porto. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Belenenses |
39% |
38% |
16% |
7% |

Porto |
20% |
31% |
26% |
24% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Belenenses** to score **0.58 ** goals and **Porto** to score **2.05 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.63** goals in the game and the guest team **Porto ** to win by **1.47** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Belenenses** to score **0.9 ** goals and **Porto** to score **1.53 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and the guest team **Porto ** to win by **0.63** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.61 |

1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |

5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
2.07 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
1.94 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.60 |
3.51 |
2.29 |

2-3 goals |
5.28 |
4.29 |
1.73 |

4+ goals |
5.82 |
3.95 |
1.74 |

Ov 1.5 |
5.44 |
4.18 |
1.73 |

Un 1.5 |
3.60 |
3.51 |
2.29 |

Ov 2.5 |
4.69 |
8.46 |
1.50 |

Un 2.5 |
4.83 |
2.68 |
2.38 |

Ov 3.5 |
5.82 |
3.95 |
1.74 |

Un 3.5 |
4.53 |
3.97 |
1.90 |

Goal-Goal |
5.56 |
2.80 |
2.16 |

No Goal |
4.20 |
6.53 |
1.64 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
4.22 |
6.55 |
1.64 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.75 |
6.53 |
1.85 |

####
Go to Top

###
Farense vs Santa Clara at 04 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Farense** and **Santa Clara** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **04 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Farense |
2.71 |
2.58 |
1.9 |

Draw |
2.87 |
3.60 |
-7.1 |

Santa Clara |
2.87 |
2.99 |
-1.4 |

Over 2.5 |
2.35 |
2.12 |
4.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.89 |
-10.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Farense, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 4.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Farense** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Farense** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance** at home**.

Farense,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Farense scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Tondela |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Porto |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Gil Vicente |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

07 Dec |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Nov |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Santa Clara** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Santa Clara** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance** as a guest**.

Santa Clara,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 Feb |
Belenenses |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Rio Ave |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Famalicao |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Jan |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Moreirense |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Dec |
Guimaraes |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

06 Dec |
Nacional |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Farense** and the red line for guest team, **Santa Clara. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Farense |
27% |
35% |
22% |
16% |

Santa Clara |
28% |
42% |
15% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Farense** to score **1.11 ** goals and **Santa Clara** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.17** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Farense** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Santa Clara** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.1** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.52 |

1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.18 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.18 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.96 |
3.79 |
2.51 |

2-3 goals |
2.40 |
3.30 |
3.57 |

4+ goals |
2.57 |
4.12 |
2.72 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.45 |
3.53 |
3.23 |

Un 1.5 |
2.96 |
3.79 |
2.51 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
8.09 |
2.59 |

Un 2.5 |
3.37 |
2.42 |
3.46 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.57 |
4.12 |
2.72 |

Un 3.5 |
2.58 |
3.47 |
3.09 |

Goal-Goal |
2.85 |
2.60 |
3.78 |

No Goal |
2.33 |
6.31 |
2.43 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
6.57 |
2.74 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
6.31 |
2.52 |

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