Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Gil Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira at 02 February 2021
Belenenses vs Porto at 04 February 2021
Farense vs Santa Clara at 04 February 2021
Gil Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira at 02 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Gil Vicente and Pacos Ferreira for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Gil Vicente |
3.12 |
2.36 |
10.3 |
|
Draw |
3.01 |
3.62 |
-5.6 |
|
Pacos Ferreira |
2.45 |
3.33 |
-10.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.65 |
1.90 |
14.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.50 |
2.11 |
-19.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Gil Vicente, Over 2.5 (10.3 %, 14.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Gil Vicente in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gil Vicente in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance at home.
Gil Vicente, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
26 Jan |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Maritimo |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Farense |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
04 Jan |
Belenenses |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Famalicao |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Benfica |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Rio Ave |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Pacos Ferreira in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pacos Ferreira in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance as a guest.
Pacos Ferreira, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
24 Jan |
Maritimo |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Belenenses |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Rio Ave |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Farense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Boavista |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Benfica |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
01 Dec |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Gil Vicente and the red line for guest team, Pacos Ferreira.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Gil Vicente |
22% |
32% |
24% |
21% |
|
Pacos Ferreira |
22% |
56% |
1% |
22% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 0.93 goals and Pacos Ferreira to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 1.44 goals and Pacos Ferreira to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
20.83 |
0-1 |
4.17 |
|
1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
2.13 |
|
2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
3.44 |
|
3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
5.26 |
Un 1.5 |
4.17 |
|
5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
|
6+ |
22.22 |
Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
|
Gg |
1.64 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.44 |
|
NoG |
2.57 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.43 |
5.00 |
1.97 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.00 |
2.61 |
8.53 |
|
4+ goals |
2.42 |
6.06 |
2.37 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.15 |
3.33 |
4.27 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.43 |
5.00 |
1.97 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
10.92 |
2.99 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.87 |
2.09 |
3.81 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.42 |
6.06 |
2.37 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.33 |
3.11 |
4.01 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.39 |
2.68 |
4.81 |
|
No Goal |
2.32 |
8.10 |
2.25 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
8.98 |
3.39 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.41 |
8.10 |
2.37 |
Go to Top
Belenenses vs Porto at 04 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Belenenses and Porto for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 04 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Belenenses |
8.02 |
4.78 |
8.5 |
|
Draw |
4.56 |
3.97 |
3.3 |
|
Porto |
1.38 |
1.86 |
-18.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.82 |
2.11 |
-7.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.98 |
1.90 |
2.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Belenenses, Draw, Under 2.5 (8.5 %, 3.3 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Belenenses in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Belenenses in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Belenenses’s performance at home.
Belenenses, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Belenenses was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
01 Feb |
Santa Clara |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
25 Jan |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
18 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Gil Vicente |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Maritimo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Porto in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Porto in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance as a guest.
Porto, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 76.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Porto was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
01 Feb |
Rio Ave |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
25 Jan |
Farense |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Jan |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
08 Jan |
Famalicao |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Moreirense |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Guimaraes |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Nacional |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Tondela |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Belenenses and the red line for guest team, Porto.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Belenenses |
39% |
38% |
16% |
7% |
|
Porto |
20% |
31% |
26% |
24% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Belenenses to score 0.58 goals and Porto to score 2.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 1.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Belenenses to score 0.9 goals and Porto to score 1.53 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the guest team Porto to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.61 |
|
1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
1.99 |
|
2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.52 |
|
3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |
|
4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |
|
5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
|
6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
|
Gg |
2.07 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |
|
NoG |
1.94 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.60 |
3.51 |
2.29 |
|
2-3 goals |
5.28 |
4.29 |
1.73 |
|
4+ goals |
5.82 |
3.95 |
1.74 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
5.44 |
4.18 |
1.73 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.60 |
3.51 |
2.29 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
4.69 |
8.46 |
1.50 |
|
Un 2.5 |
4.83 |
2.68 |
2.38 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
5.82 |
3.95 |
1.74 |
|
Un 3.5 |
4.53 |
3.97 |
1.90 |
|
Goal-Goal |
5.56 |
2.80 |
2.16 |
|
No Goal |
4.20 |
6.53 |
1.64 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
4.22 |
6.55 |
1.64 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.75 |
6.53 |
1.85 |
Go to Top
Farense vs Santa Clara at 04 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Farense and Santa Clara for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 04 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Farense |
2.71 |
2.58 |
1.9 |
|
Draw |
2.87 |
3.60 |
-7.1 |
|
Santa Clara |
2.87 |
2.99 |
-1.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.35 |
2.12 |
4.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.89 |
-10.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Farense, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 4.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Farense in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Farense in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance at home.
Farense, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 45.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Farense was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Tondela |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
25 Jan |
Porto |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Gil Vicente |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
04 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Dec |
Maritimo |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Nov |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Santa Clara in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Santa Clara in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Santa Clara’s performance as a guest.
Santa Clara, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Santa Clara scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Santa Clara was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
01 Feb |
Belenenses |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
25 Jan |
Rio Ave |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
Famalicao |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Boavista |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Moreirense |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Dec |
Guimaraes |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Nacional |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Farense and the red line for guest team, Santa Clara.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Farense |
27% |
35% |
22% |
16% |
|
Santa Clara |
28% |
42% |
15% |
16% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Farense to score 1.11 goals and Santa Clara to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Farense to score 1.28 goals and Santa Clara to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.52 |
|
1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
2.11 |
|
2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.18 |
|
3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
6.45 |
Un 1.5 |
3.52 |
|
5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
|
6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |
|
Gg |
1.90 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.18 |
|
NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.96 |
3.79 |
2.51 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.40 |
3.30 |
3.57 |
|
4+ goals |
2.57 |
4.12 |
2.72 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.45 |
3.53 |
3.23 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.96 |
3.79 |
2.51 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
8.09 |
2.59 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.37 |
2.42 |
3.46 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.57 |
4.12 |
2.72 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.58 |
3.47 |
3.09 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.85 |
2.60 |
3.78 |
|
No Goal |
2.33 |
6.31 |
2.43 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
6.57 |
2.74 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
6.31 |
2.52 |
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