2021 02 02 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Pisa vs Frosinone at 02 February 2021


Pisa vs Frosinone at 02 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pisa and Frosinone for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 02 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pisa

2.69

2.33

5.7

Draw

3.10

3.61

-4.6

Frosinone

2.69

3.41

-7.8

Over 2.5

2.06

2.24

-3.9

Under 2.5

1.76

1.81

-1.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pisa (5.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pisa in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pisa in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance at home.
Pisa, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Reggiana

H

1

0

W

U

N

22 Jan

Virtus Entella

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Brescia

H

1

0

W

U

N

04 Jan

Venezia

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Dec

Cosenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Chievo

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Dec

Lecce

A

3

0

W

O

N

15 Dec

Pescara

H

0

0

D

U

N


Frosinone in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Frosinone in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance as a guest.
Frosinone, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Empoli

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Reggina

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Jan

Vicenza

A

0

0

D

U

N

04 Jan

Spal

H

1

2

L

O

G

27 Dec

Pordenone

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Cittadella

A

0

1

L

U

N

18 Dec

Salernitana

H

0

0

D

U

N

15 Dec

Reggiana

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pisa and the red line for guest team, Frosinone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pisa

24%

37%

25%

15%

Frosinone

34%

36%

19%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pisa to score 1.19 goals and Frosinone to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pisa to score 1.3 goals and Frosinone to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.45

1

4.76

2-3

2.00

2

3.80

4+

4.76

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

7.19

Un 1.5

3.45

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.76

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.32

3.62

3.41

2-3 goals

2.23

3.78

3.49

4+ goals

2.62

3.28

3.18

Ov 1.5

2.33

3.62

3.39

Un 1.5

2.32

3.62

3.41

Ov 2.5

2.04

6.97

2.74

Un 2.5

2.63

2.61

4.22

Ov 3.5

2.62

3.28

3.18

Un 3.5

2.26

3.72

3.46

Goal-Goal

2.98

2.57

3.64

No Goal

1.91

6.20

3.18

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.20

5.80

2.69

NG+Un 2.5

2.00

6.20

3.21


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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