2021 02 02 Turkish Airlines EuroLeague



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Barcelona vs Anadolu Efes at 04 February 2021
Valencia vs CSKA Moscow at 04 February 2021
Zalgiris vs Crvena Zvezda at 04 February 2021
Bayern Munich vs Alba Berlin at 05 February 2021
Villeurbanne vs Olimpia Milano at 05 February 2021
Real Madrid vs Baskonia at 05 February 2021
Fenerbahce vs Zenit at 05 February 2021
Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos at 05 February 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Barcelona vs Anadolu Efes at 04 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Anadolu Efes for EuroLeague, which will take place on 04 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Barcelona

1.28

2.57

Anadolu Efes

3.9

1.64

Barcelona HC

-7.5

3.50

Anadolu Efes HC

+7.5

-3.50

Point Line

158.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 28

A

Olympiacos

W

76

74

17

6

W 6

74

73

Jan 26

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

85

81

16

6

W 5

90

83

Jan 22

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

72

60

15

6

W 4

72

64

Jan 15

A

CSKA Moscow

W

88

75

14

6

W 3

89

71

Jan 12

A

BC Khimki

W

87

75

13

6

W 2

74

75

Jan 7

H

Valencia Basket

W

89

72

12

6

W 1

86

70

Dec 30

A

Bayern Munich

L

77

90

11

6

L 3

79

91

Dec 22

A

Anadolu Efes

L

79

86

11

5

L 2

81

86

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Anadolu Efes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 26

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

86

72

12

10

W 1

87

77

Jan 21

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

78

85

11

10

L 1

83

87

Jan 14

H

BC Khimki

W

99

60

11

9

W 3

84

60

Jan 12

H

Alba Berlin

W

84

76

10

9

W 2

81

79

Jan 8

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

102

80

9

9

W 1

100

83

Dec 29

H

Real Madrid

L

65

73

8

9

L 1

67

71

Dec 22

H

FC Barcelona

W

86

79

8

8

W 1

92

77

Dec 17

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

69

72

7

8

L 3

70

69

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Anadolu Efes.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Anadolu Efes and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Barcelona (in the first graph) and by Anadolu Efes in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Barcelona will expected to score 79 points and the Anadolu Efes 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 155.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Barcelona

Anadolu Efes

FG%

0.49

0.55

ASS

16.70

17.60

DRB

18.30

20.10

AST-TO

1.37

1.63

TRB

27.30

27.90

FTM

14.00

13.00

BL

2.40

3.00

FTA

17.90

16.90

PF-Fewer

20.80

17.10

ST

7.00

6.90

TO-Fewer

12.20

10.80

Ftper

0.78

0.77

ORBper

0.49

0.39

ORB

9.00

7.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Valencia vs CSKA Moscow at 04 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and CSKA Moscow for EuroLeague, which will take place on 04 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Valencia

2.35

2.17

CSKA Moscow

1.62

1.86

Valencia HC

+3.5

2.00

CSKA Moscow HC

-3.5

-2.00

Point Line

162.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 29

A

Panathinaikos OPAP

L

72

91

11

12

L 3

69

90

Jan 27

H

Zalgiris

L

78

79

11

11

L 2

80

79

Jan 21

A

LDLC ASVEL

L

77

90

11

10

L 1

76

93

Jan 15

H

Crvena zvezda mts

W

91

71

11

9

W 1

92

76

Jan 12

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

80

95

10

9

L 3

81

91

Jan 7

A

FC Barcelona

L

72

89

10

8

L 2

77

87

Dec 29

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

70

71

10

7

L 1

70

71

Dec 23

H

BC Khimki

W

88

82

10

6

W 1

74

82

The latest results and the adjusted scores of CSKA Moscow are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 29

H

Bayern Munich

L

66

69

16

7

L 1

68

70

Jan 27

A

Alba Berlin

W

71

68

16

6

W 1

68

70

Jan 22

H

Fenerbahce

L

83

89

15

6

L 2

84

90

Jan 15

H

FC Barcelona

L

75

88

15

5

L 1

81

86

Jan 13

H

Zalgiris

W

83

73

15

4

W 1

85

73

Jan 7

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

93

95

14

4

L 1

94

95

Dec 30

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

W

91

87

14

3

W 12

92

84

Dec 22

A

LDLC ASVEL

W

87

78

13

3

W 11

86

80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by CSKA Moscow.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by CSKA Moscow and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Valencia (in the first graph) and by CSKA Moscow in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Valencia will expected to score 80 points and the CSKA Moscow 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Valencia

CSKA Moscow

FG%

0.57

0.53

ASS

20.30

16.80

DRB

19.40

20.20

AST-TO

1.65

1.40

TRB

26.40

28.30

FTM

14.30

13.60

BL

1.80

2.70

FTA

17.30

16.30

PF-Fewer

19.60

22.70

ST

5.90

6.00

TO-Fewer

12.30

12.00

Ftper

0.83

0.83

ORBper

0.36

0.40

ORB

7.00

8.10


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Zalgiris vs Crvena Zvezda at 04 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zalgiris and Crvena Zvezda for EuroLeague, which will take place on 04 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zalgiris

1.33

1.85

Crvena Zvezda

3.5

2.18

Zalgiris HC

-6.5

-2.00

Crvena Zvezda HC

+6.5

2.00

Point Line

154.5

153.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zalgiris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 29

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

L

68

81

13

10

L 1

68

81

Jan 27

A

Valencia Basket

W

79

78

13

9

W 2

76

76

Jan 22

H

Olympiacos

W

81

79

12

9

W 1

79

78

Jan 15

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

65

77

11

9

L 2

69

79

Jan 13

A

CSKA Moscow

L

73

83

11

8

L 1

74

79

Jan 8

H

BC Khimki

W

102

75

11

7

W 6

86

75

Dec 29

A

Alba Berlin

W

74

71

10

7

W 5

71

74

Dec 23

H

Bayern Munich

W

74

73

9

7

W 4

76

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Crvena Zvezda are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 29

H

LDLC ASVEL

L

78

81

7

16

L 3

77

84

Jan 26

A

Anadolu Efes

L

72

86

7

15

L 2

74

86

Jan 22

H

FC Barcelona

L

60

72

7

14

L 1

64

70

Jan 18

A

Real Madrid

W

79

77

7

13

W 1

81

75

Jan 15

A

Valencia Basket

L

71

91

6

13

L 2

68

89

Jan 7

H

Fenerbahce

L

71

73

6

12

L 1

72

74

Dec 30

H

Panathinaikos OPAP

W

74

71

6

11

W 1

71

70

Dec 22

A

Zenit Saint Petersburg

L

69

98

5

11

L 1

73

100

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zalgiris and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Crvena Zvezda.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Crvena Zvezda and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zalgiris.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zalgiris (in the first graph) and by Crvena Zvezda in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zalgiris will expected to score 78 points and the Crvena Zvezda 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zalgiris

Crvena Zvezda

FG%

0.57

0.51

ASS

18.70

14.30

DRB

21.40

19.20

AST-TO

1.52

1.17

TRB

29.30

27.50

FTM

12.50

14.40

BL

1.20

2.00

FTA

14.60

17.60

PF-Fewer

19.70

21.80

ST

6.10

6.70

TO-Fewer

12.30

12.20

Ftper

0.86

0.82

ORBper

0.37

0.43

ORB

7.90

8.30


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Bayern Munich vs Alba Berlin at 05 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bayern Munich and Alba Berlin for EuroLeague, which will take place on 05 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bayern Munich

1.36

2.06

Alba Berlin

3.3

1.94

Bayern Munich HC

-6.5

1.50

Alba Berlin HC

+6.5

-1.50

Point Line

158.5

154.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bayern Munich are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 29

A

CSKA Moscow

W

69

66

14

9

W 2

70

63

Jan 26

A

BC Khimki

W

95

93

13

9

W 1

80

93

Jan 21

A

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

51

75

12

9

L 2

52

72

Jan 15

H

Real Madrid

L

76

81

12

8

L 1

78

79

Jan 13

H

Zenit Saint Petersburg

W

82

80

12

7

W 1

87

82

Jan 8

A

Olympiacos

L

82

84

11

7

L 1

80

83

Dec 30

H

FC Barcelona

W

90

77

11

6

W 1

97

75

Dec 23

A

Zalgiris

L

73

74

10

6

L 1

74

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Alba Berlin are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 29

H

Real Madrid

L

63

72

8

15

L 2

65

70

Jan 27

H

CSKA Moscow

L

68

71

8

14

L 1

69

68

Jan 22

A

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

84

77

8

13

W 1

85

77

Jan 14

H

AX Armani Exchange Olimpia

L

70

84

7

13

L 3

71

81

Jan 12

A

Anadolu Efes

L

76

84

7

12

L 2

78

84

Jan 7

H

Maccabi Tel Aviv

L

73

85

7

11

L 1

74

85

Jan 5

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

95

91

7

10

W 1

96

91

Dec 29

H

Zalgiris

L

71

74

6

10

L 3

72

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bayern Munich and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Alba Berlin.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Alba Berlin and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bayern Munich.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bayern Munich (in the first graph) and by Alba Berlin in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bayern Munich will expected to score 80 points and the Alba Berlin 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 156.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bayern Munich

Alba Berlin

FG%

0.52

0.52

ASS

16.50

19.50

DRB

21.60

19.20

AST-TO

1.25

1.41

TRB

28.80

28.00

FTM

16.00

10.30

BL

1.90

1.90

FTA

19.70

12.30

PF-Fewer

20.70

19.00

ST

6.00

6.90

TO-Fewer

13.20

13.80

Ftper

0.81

0.83

ORBper

0.34

0.45

ORB

7.30

8.70


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Villeurbanne vs Olimpia Milano at 05 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Villeurbanne and Olimpia Milano for EuroLeague, which will take place on 05 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Villeurbanne

3.05

2.45

Olimpia Milano

1.4

1.69

Villeurbanne HC

+5.5

3.00

Olimpia Milano HC

-5.5

-3.00

Point Line

159.5

157.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Villeurbanne are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 29

A

Crvena zvezda mts

W

81

78

9

14

W 3

82

83

Jan 27

H

Kirolbet Baskonia

W

83

77

8

14

W 2

84

77

Jan 21

H

Valencia Basket

W

90

77

7

14

W 1

87

75

Jan 19

H

Olympiacos

L

93

101

6

14

L 1