Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Hertha vs Bayern Munich at 05 February 2021
Freiburg vs Dortmund at 06 February 2021
Leverkusen vs Stuttgart at 06 February 2021
<a href=‘#M’gladbach’> M’gladbach vs FC Koln at 06 February 2021
Mainz vs Union Berlin at 06 February 2021
Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig at 06 February 2021
Augsburg vs Wolfsburg at 06 February 2021
Bielefeld vs Werder Bremen at 07 February 2021
Hoffenheim vs Ein Frankfurt at 07 February 2021
Hertha vs Bayern Munich at 05 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Hertha and Bayern Munich for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 05 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Hertha |
8.84 |
3.13 |
20.6 |
|
Draw |
6.03 |
3.98 |
8.5 |
|
Bayern Munich |
1.32 |
2.33 |
-32.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.32 |
1.84 |
-21.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
3.33 |
2.19 |
15.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Hertha, Draw, Under 2.5 (20.6 %, 8.5 %, 15.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Hertha in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hertha in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance at home.
Hertha, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hertha was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
FC Koln |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Mainz |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Bayern Munich in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bayern Munich in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Bayern Munich’s performance as a guest.
Bayern Munich, as a guest, had 7 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 73.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bayern Munich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bayern Munich was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
20 Jan |
Augsburg |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Freiburg |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
08 Jan |
M’gladbach |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Mainz |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Leverkusen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Hertha and the red line for guest team, Bayern Munich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Hertha |
30% |
36% |
14% |
19% |
|
Bayern Munich |
28% |
23% |
24% |
25% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Hertha to score 0.69 goals and Bayern Munich to score 2.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.65 goals in the game and the guest team Bayern Munich to win by 2.27 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Hertha to score 1.21 goals and Bayern Munich to score 1.45 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.24 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.83 |
|
1 |
5.75 |
2-3 |
2.25 |
|
2 |
5.13 |
4+ |
3.40 |
|
3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |
|
5 |
12.66 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.84 |
|
6+ |
21.28 |
Un 2.5 |
2.19 |
|
Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.40 |
|
NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.51 |
3.00 |
3.73 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.55 |
5.29 |
1.89 |
|
4+ goals |
3.30 |
3.67 |
2.35 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.45 |
4.50 |
2.05 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.51 |
3.00 |
3.73 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
3.10 |
6.79 |
1.89 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.19 |
2.67 |
3.21 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.30 |
3.67 |
2.35 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.08 |
4.12 |
2.31 |
|
Goal-Goal |
4.11 |
3.03 |
2.34 |
|
No Goal |
2.55 |
5.77 |
2.30 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.41 |
5.16 |
1.95 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.60 |
5.77 |
2.62 |
Go to Top
Freiburg vs Dortmund at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Freiburg and Dortmund for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Freiburg |
5.09 |
2.25 |
24.8 |
|
Draw |
4.24 |
3.98 |
1.5 |
|
Dortmund |
1.63 |
3.28 |
-30.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.51 |
1.82 |
-11.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.53 |
2.22 |
5.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Freiburg, Draw, Under 2.5 (24.8 %, 1.5 %, 5.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Freiburg in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Freiburg in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Freiburg’s performance at home.
Freiburg, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Freiburg scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Freiburg was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
31 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Stuttgart |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
FC Koln |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Hertha |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Schalke 04 |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Dortmund in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dortmund in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance as a guest.
Dortmund, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dortmund was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Augsburg |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Jan |
M’gladbach |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Mainz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
18 Dec |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Werder Bremen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Freiburg and the red line for guest team, Dortmund.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Freiburg |
23% |
33% |
15% |
29% |
|
Dortmund |
34% |
28% |
22% |
16% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Freiburg to score 0.94 goals and Dortmund to score 2.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.12 goals in the game and the guest team Dortmund to win by 1.24 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Freiburg to score 1.49 goals and Dortmund to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.89 |
|
1 |
5.62 |
2-3 |
2.26 |
|
2 |
5.13 |
4+ |
3.33 |
|
3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
5.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.89 |
|
5 |
11.63 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
6+ |
21.28 |
Un 2.5 |
2.21 |
|
Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.33 |
|
NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.27 |
3.25 |
3.95 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.34 |
4.76 |
2.75 |
|
4+ goals |
2.11 |
3.80 |
3.80 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.24 |
4.32 |
3.10 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.27 |
3.25 |
3.95 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
6.94 |
2.90 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.76 |
2.63 |
3.90 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.80 |
3.80 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.32 |
4.07 |
3.10 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.77 |
2.94 |
3.35 |
|
No Goal |
1.89 |
6.25 |
3.21 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
5.23 |
2.74 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.19 |
6.25 |
3.09 |
Go to Top
Leverkusen vs Stuttgart at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Leverkusen and Stuttgart for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Leverkusen |
2.00 |
2.30 |
-6.5 |
|
Draw |
3.78 |
3.94 |
-1.1 |
|
Stuttgart |
3.61 |
3.21 |
3.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.52 |
1.83 |
-11.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.48 |
2.20 |
5.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Stuttgart, Under 2.5 (3.5 %, 5.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Leverkusen in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leverkusen in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance at home.
Leverkusen, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Dortmund |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Jan |
Union Berlin |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
FC Koln |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
Stuttgart in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stuttgart in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance as a guest.
Stuttgart, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Jan |
Mainz |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
M’gladbach |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Augsburg |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Union Berlin |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leverkusen and the red line for guest team, Stuttgart.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Leverkusen |
23% |
33% |
16% |
27% |
|
Stuttgart |
32% |
30% |
22% |
16% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 1.88 goals and Stuttgart to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.09 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 1.47 goals and Stuttgart to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.97 |
|
1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.23 |
|
2 |
4.93 |
4+ |
3.31 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
5.81 |
Un 1.5 |
3.97 |
|
5 |
11.63 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.83 |
|
6+ |
22.73 |
Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
|
Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.31 |
|
NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.43 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.36 |
3.36 |
3.60 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.38 |
4.53 |
2.78 |
|
4+ goals |
2.16 |
3.78 |
3.68 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.29 |
4.19 |
3.09 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.36 |
3.36 |
3.60 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
6.84 |
2.85 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.84 |
2.61 |
3.76 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.16 |
3.78 |
3.68 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.37 |
4.02 |
3.03 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.76 |
2.92 |
3.39 |
|
No Goal |
1.95 |
6.40 |
3.02 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
5.29 |
2.75 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.40 |
2.94 |
Go to Top
<a id=‘M’gladbach’>
M’gladbach vs FC Koln at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between M’gladbach and FC Koln for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
M’gladbach |
1.50 |
1.76 |
-9.8 |
|
Draw |
4.44 |
4.27 |
0.9 |
|
FC Koln |
6.60 |
5.03 |
4.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.71 |
1.74 |
-1.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.21 |
2.35 |
-2.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, FC Koln (0.9 %, 4.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
M’gladbach in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, M’gladbach in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at M’gladbach’s performance at home.
M’gladbach, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, M’gladbach scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of M’gladbach was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Jan |
Dortmund |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Stuttgart |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
08 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Hoffenheim |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
FC Koln in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Koln in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at FC Koln’s performance as a guest.
FC Koln, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Koln scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Koln was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
31 Jan |
Bielefeld |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
20 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Hertha |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Freiburg |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Augsburg |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Leverkusen |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, M’gladbach and the red line for guest team, FC Koln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
M’gladbach |
15% |
29% |
23% |
33% |
|
FC Koln |
35% |
38% |
18% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 2.1 goals and FC Koln to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and the home team M’gladbach to win by 1.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) M’gladbach to score 1.74 goals and FC Koln to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.76 goals in the game and the home team M’gladbach to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
18.87 |
0-1 |
4.76 |
|
1 |
6.37 |
2-3 |
2.07 |
|
2 |
4.65 |
4+ |
3.28 |
|
3 |
3.72 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.27 |
|
4 |
5.18 |
Un 1.5 |
4.76 |
|
5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.74 |
|
6+ |
32.26 |
Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
|
Gg |
1.81 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.28 |
|
NoG |
2.24 |
Un 3.5 |
1.44 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |