Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Swansea vs Norwich at 05 February 2021
Middlesbrough vs Brentford at 06 February 2021
Wycombe vs Nott’m Forest at 06 February 2021
Stoke vs Reading at 06 February 2021
QPR vs Blackburn at 06 February 2021
Barnsley vs Derby at 06 February 2021
Millwall vs Sheffield Weds at 06 February 2021
Luton vs Huddersfield at 06 February 2021
Coventry vs Watford at 06 February 2021
Bristol City vs Cardiff at 06 February 2021
Bournemouth vs Birmingham at 06 February 2021
Preston vs Rotherham at 06 February 2021
Swansea vs Norwich at 05 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Swansea and Norwich for Championship (England), which will take place on 05 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Swansea |
2.93 |
1.96 |
16.9 |
|
Draw |
3.11 |
3.83 |
-6.0 |
|
Norwich |
2.58 |
4.37 |
-15.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.14 |
1.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.69 |
1.88 |
-6.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Swansea, Over 2.5 (16.9 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Swansea in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swansea in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance at home.
Swansea, at home, had 7 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swansea was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Rotherham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Jan |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Barnsley |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Watford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Dec |
Reading |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
QPR |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Barnsley |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Dec |
Derby |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Norwich in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Norwich in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 1 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Norwich’s performance as a guest.
Norwich, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 26 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Norwich scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Norwich was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Feb |
Millwall |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Middlesbrough |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Jan |
Bristol City |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Cardiff |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
QPR |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Watford |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Cardiff |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Swansea and the red line for guest team, Norwich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Swansea |
22% |
31% |
26% |
22% |
|
Norwich |
37% |
42% |
12% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.09 goals and Norwich to score 1.2 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Swansea to score 1.47 goals and Norwich to score 0.95 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Swansea to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.53 |
|
1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.46 |
|
3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.53 |
|
5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |
|
Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |
|
NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.48 |
3.58 |
3.14 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.75 |
3.79 |
6.01 |
|
4+ goals |
1.93 |
4.31 |
4.00 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.81 |
3.94 |
5.20 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.58 |
3.14 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.54 |
9.00 |
4.14 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.56 |
2.55 |
4.63 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.93 |
4.31 |
4.00 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.96 |
3.71 |
4.51 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.23 |
2.73 |
5.40 |
|
No Goal |
1.75 |
6.37 |
3.70 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.65 |
7.06 |
3.99 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.93 |
6.37 |
3.50 |
Go to Top
Middlesbrough vs Brentford at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Middlesbrough and Brentford for Championship (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Middlesbrough |
3.38 |
2.62 |
8.6 |
|
Draw |
3.04 |
3.64 |
-5.4 |
|
Brentford |
2.33 |
2.92 |
-8.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.25 |
2.22 |
0.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.82 |
-5.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Middlesbrough, Over 2.5 (8.6 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Middlesbrough in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Middlesbrough in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance at home.
Middlesbrough, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Jan |
Rotherham |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Blackburn |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Jan |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Birmingham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Wycombe |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Birmingham |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Brentford in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance as a guest.
Brentford, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
03 Feb |
Bristol City |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Wycombe |
H |
7 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Jan |
Swansea |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Jan |
Luton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Bournemouth |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Cardiff |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Reading |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Watford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Middlesbrough and the red line for guest team, Brentford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Middlesbrough |
29% |
35% |
19% |
17% |
|
Brentford |
33% |
33% |
20% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 0.98 goals and Brentford to score 1.27 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.22 goals and Brentford to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.31 |
0-1 |
3.22 |
|
1 |
4.67 |
2-3 |
2.14 |
|
2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
4.50 |
|
3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |
|
4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
3.22 |
|
5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
Gg |
2.11 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |
|
NoG |
1.90 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.68 |
3.21 |
3.17 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.64 |
3.96 |
2.72 |
|
4+ goals |
2.49 |
3.70 |
3.04 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.59 |
3.87 |
2.81 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.68 |
3.21 |
3.17 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
7.50 |
2.43 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.11 |
2.56 |
3.48 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.49 |
3.70 |
3.04 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.66 |
3.62 |
2.88 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.14 |
2.66 |
3.27 |
|
No Goal |
2.28 |
5.42 |
2.66 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.36 |
5.93 |
2.46 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
5.42 |
2.73 |
Go to Top
Wycombe vs Nott’m Forest at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Wycombe and Nott’m Forest for Championship (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Wycombe |
3.82 |
2.36 |
16.2 |
|
Draw |
3.43 |
3.62 |
-1.5 |
|
Nott’m Forest |
1.99 |
3.33 |
-20.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.23 |
-1.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.72 |
1.81 |
-2.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Wycombe (16.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Wycombe in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance at home.
Wycombe, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 28.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Feb |
Birmingham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Brentford |
A |
2 |
7 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Middlesbrough |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Cardiff |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Bristol City |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
QPR |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Bournemouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Coventry |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Nott’m Forest in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nott’m Forest in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Nott’m Forest’s performance as a guest.
Nott’m Forest, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 30.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nott’m Forest scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nott’m Forest was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Feb |
Coventry |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Barnsley |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Jan |
Middlesbrough |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Millwall |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Preston |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Stoke |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Birmingham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wycombe and the red line for guest team, Nott’m Forest.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Wycombe |
28% |
33% |
19% |
20% |
|
Nott’m Forest |
35% |
37% |
15% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wycombe to score 0.9 goals and Nott’m Forest to score 1.43 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the guest team Nott’m Forest to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.3 goals and Nott’m Forest to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.10 |
0-1 |
3.12 |
|
1 |
4.52 |
2-3 |
2.20 |
|
2 |
4.33 |
4+ |
4.46 |
|
3 |
4.46 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |
|
4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.12 |
|
5 |
18.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |
|
6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |
|
Gg |
2.15 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |
|
NoG |
1.88 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.74 |
3.23 |
3.08 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.23 |
3.70 |
3.55 |
|
4+ goals |
2.17 |
4.15 |
3.34 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.21 |
3.84 |
3.48 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.74 |
3.23 |
3.08 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
8.30 |
2.93 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.01 |
2.48 |
3.77 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.17 |
4.15 |
3.34 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.49 |
3.34 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.71 |
2.63 |
3.98 |
|
No Goal |
2.12 |
5.38 |
2.93 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
6.35 |
2.93 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
5.38 |
2.93 |
Go to Top
Stoke vs Reading at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Stoke and Reading for Championship (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Stoke |
2.48 |
2.49 |
-0.2 |
|
Draw |
3.14 |
3.60 |
-4.1 |
|
Reading |
3.02 |
3.12 |
-1.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.42 |
2.20 |
4.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.83 |
-8.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (4.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Stoke in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stoke in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance at home.
Stoke, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 46.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stoke was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Huddersfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Jan |
Watford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Rotherham |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Bournemouth |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Blackburn |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Reading in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reading in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance as a guest.
Reading, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 51.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reading was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Jan |
Bournemouth |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Jan |
Preston |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Coventry |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Huddersfield |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Dec |
Swansea |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Luton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Brentford |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Dec |
Norwich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stoke and the red line for guest team, Reading.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Stoke |
26% |
37% |
22% |
15% |
|
Reading |
31% |
37% |
20% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.14 goals and Reading to score 1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.27 goals and Reading to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.47 |
|
1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.55 |
|
3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |
|
5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |
|
NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.53 |
3.60 |
3.06 |
|
2-3 goals |