2021 02 05 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Eastleigh vs Solihull at 06 February 2021
Wrexham vs Dag and Red at 06 February 2021
Maidenhead vs Boreham Wood at 06 February 2021
Dover Athletic vs Hartlepool at 06 February 2021
Stockport vs Yeovil at 06 February 2021


Eastleigh vs Solihull at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Eastleigh and Solihull for Conference (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Eastleigh

2.49

2.24

4.5

Draw

3.29

3.79

-4.0

Solihull

2.64

3.45

-8.9

Over 2.5

1.95

1.98

-0.8

Under 2.5

1.84

2.02

-4.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Eastleigh (4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Eastleigh in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance at home.
Eastleigh, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Feb

Wrexham

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Boreham Wood

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Dag and Red

H

3

0

W

O

N

23 Jan

Sutton

A

0

3

L

O

N

19 Jan

King’s Lynn

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Weymouth

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Dec

Woking

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Weymouth

H

0

0

D

U

N


Solihull in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Solihull in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Solihull’s performance as a guest.
Solihull, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Solihull scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Solihull was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

27 Jan

Notts County

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Dover Athletic

A

2

0

W

U

N

05 Jan

Chesterfield

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Jan

Chesterfield

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Halifax

H

2

1

W

O

G

12 Dec

Bromley

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Sutton

A

1

4

L

O

G

01 Dec

Hartlepool

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Eastleigh and the red line for guest team, Solihull.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Eastleigh

22%

33%

25%

20%

Solihull

31%

36%

22%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.27 goals and Solihull to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.43 goals and Solihull to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.98

1

5.49

2-3

2.04

2

4.12

4+

3.89

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.98

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.89

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.44

3.64

3.18

2-3 goals

2.15

4.15

3.40

4+ goals

2.23

3.38

3.89

Ov 1.5

2.18

3.85

3.56

Un 1.5

2.44

3.64

3.18

Ov 2.5

1.89

6.63

3.11

Un 2.5

2.74

2.64

3.89

Ov 3.5

2.23

3.38

3.89

Un 3.5

2.24

3.96

3.32

Goal-Goal

2.63

2.75

3.90

No Goal

1.91

6.72

3.05

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

5.47

3.04

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

6.72

2.96


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Wrexham vs Dag and Red at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and Dag and Red for Conference (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wrexham

2.24

2.04

4.4

Draw

3.20

3.91

-5.7

Dag and Red

3.12

3.92

-6.5

Over 2.5

1.99

1.95

1.0

Under 2.5

1.80

2.05

-6.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wrexham, Over 2.5 (4.4 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wrexham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Feb

Eastleigh

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

King’s Lynn

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Halifax

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Chesterfield

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Dover Athletic

H

3

1

W

O

G

28 Dec

Stockport

A

0

2

L

U

N

15 Dec

Weymouth

A

3

2

W

O

G

05 Dec

Torquay

A

1

3

L

O

G


Dag and Red in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dag and Red in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance as a guest.
Dag and Red, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dag and Red was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Chesterfield

H

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Eastleigh

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Jan

King’s Lynn

H

3

2

W

O

G

19 Jan

Stockport

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Dec

Dover Athletic

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Torquay

A

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Altrincham

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Dec

Weymouth

A

3

2

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, Dag and Red.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wrexham

20%

31%

26%

23%

Dag and Red

34%

36%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.36 goals and Dag and Red to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.51 goals and Dag and Red to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

4.07

1

5.62

2-3

2.03

2

4.17

4+

3.83

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

6.02

Un 1.5

4.07

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.06

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.83

NoG

2.13

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.37

3.62

3.32

2-3 goals

1.93

4.36

3.94

4+ goals

2.01

3.48

4.66

Ov 1.5

1.96

4.01

4.17

Un 1.5

2.37

3.62

3.32

Ov 2.5

1.71

6.85

3.70

Un 2.5

2.57

2.69

4.19

Ov 3.5

2.01

3.48

4.66

Un 3.5

2.06

4.08

3.71

Goal-Goal

2.38

2.82

4.45

No Goal

1.77

6.91

3.46

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.87

5.56

3.50

NG+Un 2.5

1.97

6.91

3.22


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Maidenhead vs Boreham Wood at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maidenhead and Boreham Wood for Conference (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Maidenhead

2.79

2.67

1.6

Draw

3.38

3.68

-2.4

Boreham Wood

2.34

2.82

-7.3

Over 2.5

1.93

2.02

-2.3

Under 2.5

1.84

1.98

-3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Maidenhead (1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Maidenhead in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance at home.
Maidenhead, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 61.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Halifax

A

3

2

W

O

G

27 Jan

Yeovil

H

4

2

W

O

G

23 Jan

Woking

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Wealdstone

H

4

0

W

O

N

08 Dec

Torquay

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Eastleigh

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Altrincham

A

0

2

L

U

N

21 Nov

Bromley

H

2

2

D

O

G


Boreham Wood in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boreham Wood in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boreham Wood’s performance as a guest.
Boreham Wood, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Boreham Wood scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boreham Wood was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Feb

Weymouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Eastleigh

H

1

2

L

O

G

26 Jan

Chesterfield

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Stockport

A

1

1

D

U

G

12 Jan

Dover Athletic

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Barnet

A

3

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Aldershot

H

3

2

W

O

G

08 Dec

Notts County

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maidenhead and the red line for guest team, Boreham Wood.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Maidenhead

25%

36%

23%

15%

Boreham Wood

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.17 goals and Boreham Wood to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.28 goals and Boreham Wood to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.89

1

5.35

2-3

2.03

2

4.03

4+

3.98

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.89

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.18

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.57

3.67

2.95

2-3 goals

2.66

3.90

2.72

4+ goals

2.82

3.30

2.92

Ov 1.5

2.71

3.68

2.78

Un 1.5

2.57

3.67

2.95

Ov 2.5

2.35

6.51

2.38

Un 2.5

3.10

2.58

3.46

Ov 3.5

2.82

3.30

2.92

Un 3.5

2.63

3.82

2.79

Goal-Goal

3.21

2.68

3.17

No Goal

2.23

6.54

2.50

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.46

5.47

2.43

NG+Un 2.5

2.33

6.54

2.60


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Dover Athletic vs Hartlepool at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Dover Athletic and Hartlepool for Conference (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Dover Athletic

3.88

3.41

3.6

Draw

3.68

3.64

0.3

Hartlepool

1.79

2.31

-12.6

Over 2.5

1.74

1.97

-6.7

Under 2.5

2.05

2.03

0.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Dover Athletic, Draw, Under 2.5 (3.6 %, 0.3 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Dover Athletic in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dover Athletic in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dover Athletic’s performance at home.
Dover Athletic, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dover Athletic was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Yeovil

A

1

3

L

O

G

26 Jan

Barnet

H

3

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Solihull

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Wrexham

A

1

3

L

O

G

12 Jan

Boreham Wood

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Dag and Red

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

King’s Lynn

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Nov

Woking

H

1

5

L

O

G


Hartlepool in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hartlepool in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hartlepool’s performance as a guest.
Hartlepool, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Hartlepool scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hartlepool was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Sutton

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Weymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

Wealdstone

H

3

1

W

O

G

28 Dec

Notts County

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Halifax

H

3

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Stockport

H

4

0

W

O

N

12 Dec

Woking

A

0

3

L

O

N

08 Dec

King’s Lynn

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dover Athletic and the red line for guest team, Hartlepool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Dover Athletic

24%

46%

20%

10%

Hartlepool

22%

33%

26%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dover Athletic to score 0.98 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the guest team Hartlepool to win by 0.75 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dover Athletic to score 1.16 goals and Hartlepool to score 1.42 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

18.52

0-1

4.24

1

5.49

2-3

1.97

2

3.91

4+

3.92

3

3.98

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.85

Un 1.5

4.24

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.71

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.43

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.34