# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** For Sittard vs Heracles at 05 February 2021**** Zwolle vs Waalwijk at 06 February 2021**** PSV Eindhoven vs Twente at 06 February 2021**** FC Emmen vs AZ Alkmaar at 06 February 2021**** Heerenveen vs Vitesse at 06 February 2021**** Willem II vs Den Haag at 07 February 2021**** VVV Venlo vs Sparta Rotterdam at 07 February 2021**** Ajax vs Utrecht at 07 February 2021**** Groningen vs Feyenoord at 07 February 2021**

###
For Sittard vs Heracles at 05 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **For Sittard** and **Heracles** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **05 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

For Sittard |
2.94 |
2.14 |
12.7 |

Draw |
3.22 |
3.97 |
-5.9 |

Heracles |
2.45 |
3.57 |
-12.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.87 |
1.82 |
1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.96 |
2.22 |
-6.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **For Sittard, Over 2.5 (12.7 %, 1.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**For Sittard** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **For Sittard** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance** at home**.

For Sittard,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 9 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Waalwijk |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Ajax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Zwolle |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Utrecht |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Heracles** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Heracles** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance** as a guest**.

Heracles,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Heracles scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Heracles was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Groningen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Zwolle |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Groningen |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Heerenveen |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **For Sittard** and the red line for guest team, **Heracles. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

For Sittard |
22% |
28% |
26% |
24% |

Heracles |
29% |
38% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **For Sittard** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Heracles** to score **1.38 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.59** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.17** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **For Sittard** to score **1.53 ** goals and **Heracles** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the home team **For Sittard ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.87 |
0-1 |
4.44 |

1 |
6.17 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.46 |
4+ |
3.38 |

3 |
3.92 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
5.52 |
Un 1.5 |
4.44 |

5 |
12.05 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |

6+ |
31.25 |
Un 2.5 |
2.23 |

Gg |
1.80 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.38 |

NoG |
2.25 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.85 |
3.57 |
2.71 |

2-3 goals |
1.94 |
4.56 |
3.77 |

4+ goals |
2.08 |
3.52 |
4.23 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.99 |
4.10 |
3.93 |

Un 1.5 |
2.85 |
3.57 |
2.71 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
6.56 |
3.58 |

Un 2.5 |
2.90 |
2.67 |
3.56 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.08 |
3.52 |
4.23 |

Un 3.5 |
2.16 |
4.19 |
3.35 |

Goal-Goal |
2.30 |
2.94 |
4.45 |

No Goal |
1.96 |
7.05 |
2.86 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
5.37 |
3.61 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
7.05 |
2.73 |

####
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###
Zwolle vs Waalwijk at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Zwolle** and **Waalwijk** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Zwolle |
1.97 |
2.02 |
-1.3 |

Draw |
3.69 |
4.15 |
-3.0 |

Waalwijk |
3.59 |
3.76 |
-1.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.55 |
8.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.82 |
-12.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (8.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Zwolle** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zwolle** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance** at home**.

Zwolle,** at home**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Heracles |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Dec |
Den Haag |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Dec |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Waalwijk** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Waalwijk** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance** as a guest**.

Waalwijk,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Den Haag |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
For Sittard |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Zwolle** and the red line for guest team, **Waalwijk. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Zwolle |
17% |
20% |
32% |
30% |

Waalwijk |
29% |
29% |
24% |
18% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Zwolle** to score **1.64 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the home team **Zwolle ** to win by **0.58** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Zwolle** to score **1.75 ** goals and **Waalwijk** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **3.06** goals in the game and the home team **Zwolle ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
20.00 |
0-1 |
6.25 |

1 |
9.09 |
2-3 |
2.20 |

2 |
5.15 |
4+ |
2.60 |

3 |
3.83 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.19 |

4 |
4.95 |
Un 1.5 |
6.25 |

5 |
7.75 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.55 |

6+ |
18.52 |
Un 2.5 |
2.82 |

Gg |
1.70 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.60 |

NoG |
2.43 |
Un 3.5 |
1.63 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.71 |
3.20 |
3.14 |

2-3 goals |
1.67 |
7.58 |
3.70 |

4+ goals |
2.38 |
2.94 |
4.18 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.94 |
4.40 |
3.91 |

Un 1.5 |
2.71 |
3.20 |
3.14 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |
4.93 |
3.73 |

Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
3.22 |
3.81 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.38 |
2.94 |
4.18 |

Un 3.5 |
1.86 |
5.59 |
3.53 |

Goal-Goal |
2.31 |
3.08 |
4.14 |

No Goal |
1.73 |
8.24 |
3.32 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
4.03 |
3.72 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.95 |
8.24 |
3.16 |

####
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###
PSV Eindhoven vs Twente at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **PSV Eindhoven** and **Twente** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

PSV Eindhoven |
1.42 |
1.94 |
-18.9 |

Draw |
4.79 |
4.08 |
3.6 |

Twente |
6.73 |
4.17 |
9.1 |

Over 2.5 |
1.52 |
1.92 |
-13.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.49 |
2.08 |
7.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Twente, Under 2.5 (3.6 %, 9.1 %, 7.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**PSV Eindhoven** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **PSV Eindhoven** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance** at home**.

PSV Eindhoven,** at home**, had 8 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 24 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

31 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
FC Emmen |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Waalwijk |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Twente** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Twente** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance** as a guest**.

Twente,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Twente scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

31 Jan |
Heerenveen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Groningen |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Jan |
Ajax |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
FC Emmen |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **PSV Eindhoven** and the red line for guest team, **Twente. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

PSV Eindhoven |
22% |
25% |
29% |
24% |

Twente |
34% |
39% |
17% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **PSV Eindhoven** to score **2.36 ** goals and **Twente** to score **0.74 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.1** goals in the game and the home team **PSV Eindhoven ** to win by **1.62** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **PSV Eindhoven** to score **1.55 ** goals and **Twente** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and the home team **PSV Eindhoven ** to win by **0.53** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
4.07 |

1 |
5.85 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
3.82 |

3 |
3.85 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.92 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.82 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.89 |
3.28 |
2.86 |

2-3 goals |
1.68 |
5.04 |
4.84 |

4+ goals |
1.91 |
3.59 |
5.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.75 |
4.42 |
4.91 |

Un 1.5 |
2.89 |
3.28 |
2.86 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.57 |
7.15 |
4.50 |

Un 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.77 |
3.87 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.91 |
3.59 |
5.04 |

Un 3.5 |
1.95 |
4.28 |
3.94 |

Goal-Goal |
2.06 |
3.02 |
5.43 |

No Goal |
1.83 |
6.48 |
3.35 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.67 |
5.73 |
4.40 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.48 |
3.08 |

####
Go to Top

###
FC Emmen vs AZ Alkmaar at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **FC Emmen** and **AZ Alkmaar** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

FC Emmen |
6.67 |
2.68 |
22.3 |

Draw |
4.68 |
3.57 |
6.6 |

AZ Alkmaar |
1.43 |
2.88 |
-35.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.55 |
1.69 |
-5.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.49 |
2.45 |
0.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **FC Emmen, Draw, Under 2.5 (22.3 %, 6.6 %, 0.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**FC Emmen** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Emmen** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance** at home**.

FC Emmen,** at home**, had no wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 10.0% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 8 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

31 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Twente |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Utrecht |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Zwolle |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**AZ Alkmaar** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **AZ Alkmaar** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AZ Alkmaar’s performance** as a guest**.

AZ Alkmaar,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 20 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, AZ Alkmaar** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of AZ Alkmaar was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

31 Jan |
Ajax |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Jan |
Utrecht |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Den Haag |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Dec |
Utrecht |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Vitesse |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **FC Emmen** and the red line for guest team, **AZ Alkmaar. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

FC Emmen |
20% |
35% |
26% |
20% |

AZ Alkmaar |
14% |
46% |
23% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **FC Emmen** to score **0.74 ** goals and **AZ Alkmaar** to score **2.32 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.06** goals in the game and the guest team **AZ Alkmaar ** to win by **1.58** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **FC Emmen** to score **1.46 ** goals and **AZ Alkmaar** to score **1.42 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.88** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
35.71 |
0-1 |
5.99 |

1 |
7.19 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
3.01 |

3 |
3.85 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.20 |

4 |
4.76 |
Un 1.5 |
5.99 |

5 |
11.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |

6+ |
30.30 |
Un 2.5 |
2.45 |

Gg |
1.45 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.01 |

NoG |
3.23 |
Un 3.5 |
1.50 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |