2021 02 05 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

For Sittard vs Heracles at 05 February 2021
Zwolle vs Waalwijk at 06 February 2021
PSV Eindhoven vs Twente at 06 February 2021
FC Emmen vs AZ Alkmaar at 06 February 2021
Heerenveen vs Vitesse at 06 February 2021
Willem II vs Den Haag at 07 February 2021
VVV Venlo vs Sparta Rotterdam at 07 February 2021
Ajax vs Utrecht at 07 February 2021
Groningen vs Feyenoord at 07 February 2021


For Sittard vs Heracles at 05 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between For Sittard and Heracles for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 05 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

For Sittard

2.94

2.14

12.7

Draw

3.22

3.97

-5.9

Heracles

2.45

3.57

-12.8

Over 2.5

1.87

1.82

1.5

Under 2.5

1.96

2.22

-6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at For Sittard, Over 2.5 (12.7 %, 1.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

For Sittard in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, For Sittard in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance at home.
For Sittard, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 9 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

VVV Venlo

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Jan

Waalwijk

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Ajax

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Zwolle

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Heerenveen

A

3

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Waalwijk

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Utrecht

A

1

1

D

U

G


Heracles in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Heracles in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Heracles’s performance as a guest.
Heracles, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Heracles scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Heracles was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Groningen

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Zwolle

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Jan

Heerenveen

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Utrecht

A

0

2

L

U

N

12 Jan

FC Emmen

H

4

0

W

O

N

09 Jan

Vitesse

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Dec

Groningen

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Heerenveen

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, For Sittard and the red line for guest team, Heracles.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

For Sittard

22%

28%

26%

24%

Heracles

29%

38%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) For Sittard to score 1.21 goals and Heracles to score 1.38 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.59 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) For Sittard to score 1.53 goals and Heracles to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team For Sittard to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.87

0-1

4.44

1

6.17

2-3

2.09

2

4.46

4+

3.38

3

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.52

Un 1.5

4.44

5

12.05

Ov 2.5

1.81

6+

31.25

Un 2.5

2.23

Gg

1.80

Ov 3.5

3.38

NoG

2.25

Un 3.5

1.42

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.85

3.57

2.71

2-3 goals

1.94

4.56

3.77

4+ goals

2.08

3.52

4.23

Ov 1.5

1.99

4.10

3.93

Un 1.5

2.85

3.57

2.71

Ov 2.5

1.76

6.56

3.58

Un 2.5

2.90

2.67

3.56

Ov 3.5

2.08

3.52

4.23

Un 3.5

2.16

4.19

3.35

Goal-Goal

2.30

2.94

4.45

No Goal

1.96

7.05

2.86

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.86

5.37

3.61

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

7.05

2.73


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Zwolle vs Waalwijk at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zwolle and Waalwijk for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Zwolle

1.97

2.02

-1.3

Draw

3.69

4.15

-3.0

Waalwijk

3.59

3.76

-1.3

Over 2.5

1.78

1.55

8.3

Under 2.5

2.08

2.82

-12.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (8.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Zwolle in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance at home.
Zwolle, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Utrecht

A

3

3

D

O

G

26 Jan

Heracles

H

2

2

D

O

G

22 Jan

Willem II

A

3

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

For Sittard

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Jan

Feyenoord

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Den Haag

A

2

0

W

U

N

18 Dec

FC Emmen

H

0

0

D

U

N


Waalwijk in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance as a guest.
Waalwijk, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Vitesse

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Jan

For Sittard

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Jan

Willem II

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Jan

Heerenveen

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Den Haag

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Dec

For Sittard

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

PSV Eindhoven

H

1

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Zwolle and the red line for guest team, Waalwijk.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Zwolle

17%

20%

32%

30%

Waalwijk

29%

29%

24%

18%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.64 goals and Waalwijk to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the home team Zwolle to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Zwolle to score 1.75 goals and Waalwijk to score 1.31 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3.06 goals in the game and the home team Zwolle to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

20.00

0-1

6.25

1

9.09

2-3

2.20

2

5.15

4+

2.60

3

3.83

Ov 1.5

1.19

4

4.95

Un 1.5

6.25

5

7.75

Ov 2.5

1.55

6+

18.52

Un 2.5

2.82

Gg

1.70

Ov 3.5

2.60

NoG

2.43

Un 3.5

1.63

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.71

3.20

3.14

2-3 goals

1.67

7.58

3.70

4+ goals

2.38

2.94

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.94

4.40

3.91

Un 1.5

2.71

3.20

3.14

Ov 2.5

1.89

4.93

3.73

Un 2.5

2.34

3.22

3.81

Ov 3.5

2.38

2.94

4.18

Un 3.5

1.86

5.59

3.53

Goal-Goal

2.31

3.08

4.14

No Goal

1.73

8.24

3.32

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.07

4.03

3.72

NG+Un 2.5

1.95

8.24

3.16


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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PSV Eindhoven vs Twente at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between PSV Eindhoven and Twente for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

PSV Eindhoven

1.42

1.94

-18.9

Draw

4.79

4.08

3.6

Twente

6.73

4.17

9.1

Over 2.5

1.52

1.92

-13.7

Under 2.5

2.49

2.08

7.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Twente, Under 2.5 (3.6 %, 9.1 %, 7.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

PSV Eindhoven in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PSV Eindhoven in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance at home.
PSV Eindhoven, at home, had 8 wins, no draws, one defeat and gathered 24 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Feyenoord

A

1

3

L

O

G

26 Jan

FC Emmen

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Waalwijk

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

A

5

3

W

O

G

13 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

3

L

O

G

10 Jan

Ajax

A

2

2

D

O

G

22 Dec

VVV Venlo

H

4

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Waalwijk

A

4

1

W

O

G


Twente in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Twente in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Twente’s performance as a guest.
Twente, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 18 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Twente scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Twente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Heerenveen

H

0

0

D

U

N

28 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

A

0

0

D

U

N

24 Jan

VVV Venlo

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

Groningen

A

2

2

D

O

G

14 Jan

Ajax

H

1

3

L

O

G

09 Jan

FC Emmen

A

4

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Sparta Rotterdam

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

VVV Venlo

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, PSV Eindhoven and the red line for guest team, Twente.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

PSV Eindhoven

22%

25%

29%

24%

Twente

34%

39%

17%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) PSV Eindhoven to score 2.36 goals and Twente to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.1 goals in the game and the home team PSV Eindhoven to win by 1.62 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) PSV Eindhoven to score 1.55 goals and Twente to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team PSV Eindhoven to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

4.07

1

5.85

2-3

2.02

2

4.27

4+

3.82

3

3.85

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.92

Un 1.5

4.07

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

1.94

Ov 3.5

3.82

NoG

2.06

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.89

3.28

2.86

2-3 goals

1.68

5.04

4.84

4+ goals

1.91

3.59

5.04

Ov 1.5

1.75

4.42

4.91

Un 1.5

2.89

3.28

2.86

Ov 2.5

1.57

7.15

4.50

Un 2.5

2.62

2.77

3.87

Ov 3.5

1.91

3.59

5.04

Un 3.5

1.95

4.28

3.94

Goal-Goal

2.06

3.02

5.43

No Goal

1.83

6.48

3.35

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.67

5.73

4.40

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

6.48

3.08


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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FC Emmen vs AZ Alkmaar at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between FC Emmen and AZ Alkmaar for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

FC Emmen

6.67

2.68

22.3

Draw

4.68

3.57

6.6

AZ Alkmaar

1.43

2.88

-35.2

Over 2.5

1.55

1.69

-5.3

Under 2.5

2.49

2.45

0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at FC Emmen, Draw, Under 2.5 (22.3 %, 6.6 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

FC Emmen in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Emmen in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance at home.
FC Emmen, at home, had no wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 10.0% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 8 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Willem II

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Den Haag

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

Vitesse

H

1

4

L

O

G

12 Jan

Heracles

A

0

4

L

O

N

09 Jan

Twente

H

1

4

L

O

G

22 Dec

Utrecht

H

2

3

L

O

G

18 Dec

Zwolle

A

0

0

D

U

N


AZ Alkmaar in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AZ Alkmaar in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AZ Alkmaar’s performance as a guest.
AZ Alkmaar, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, no defeats and gathered 20 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, AZ Alkmaar scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AZ Alkmaar was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Ajax

H

0

3

L

O

N

27 Jan

Utrecht

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Jan

Feyenoord

A

3

2

W

O

G

16 Jan

Den Haag

H

2

1

W

O

G

13 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

A

3

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Zwolle

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Dec

Utrecht

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Dec

Vitesse

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, FC Emmen and the red line for guest team, AZ Alkmaar.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

FC Emmen

20%

35%

26%

20%

AZ Alkmaar

14%

46%

23%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 0.74 goals and AZ Alkmaar to score 2.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.06 goals in the game and the guest team AZ Alkmaar to win by 1.58 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) FC Emmen to score 1.46 goals and AZ Alkmaar to score 1.42 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

35.71

0-1

5.99

1

7.19

2-3

2.00

2

4.15

4+

3.01

3

3.85

Ov 1.5

1.20

4

4.76

Un 1.5

5.99

5

11.24

Ov 2.5

1.69

6+

30.30

Un 2.5

2.45

Gg

1.45

Ov 3.5

3.01

NoG

3.23

Un 3.5

1.50

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-