2021 02 05 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Alaves vs Valladolid at 05 February 2021
Elche vs Villarreal at 06 February 2021
Sevilla vs Getafe at 06 February 2021
Huesca vs Real Madrid at 06 February 2021
Levante vs Granada at 06 February 2021
Sociedad vs Cadiz at 07 February 2021
Osasuna vs Eibar at 07 February 2021
Ath Bilbao vs Valencia at 07 February 2021
Betis vs Barcelona at 07 February 2021
Ath Madrid vs Celta at 08 February 2021


Alaves vs Valladolid at 05 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Alaves and Valladolid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 05 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Alaves

2.58

2.10

8.9

Draw

3.03

3.85

-7.0

Valladolid

3.11

3.79

-5.8

Over 2.5

2.48

1.98

10.2

Under 2.5

1.56

2.02

-14.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Alaves, Over 2.5 (8.9 %, 10.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Alaves in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alaves in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance at home.
Alaves, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alaves was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Getafe

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Real Madrid

H

1

4

L

O

G

19 Jan

Sevilla

H

1

2

L

O

G

10 Jan

Cadiz

A

1

3

L

O

G

03 Jan

Ath Madrid

H

1

2

L

O

G

31 Dec

Osasuna

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Eibar

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Celta

A

0

2

L

U

N


Valladolid in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance as a guest.
Valladolid, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Jan

Huesca

H

1

3

L

O

G

22 Jan

Levante

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Jan

Elche

H

2

2

D

O

G

10 Jan

Valencia

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Getafe

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Cadiz

A

0

0

D

U

N

22 Dec

Barcelona

H

0

3

L

O

N

19 Dec

Sevilla

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Alaves and the red line for guest team, Valladolid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Alaves

22%

31%

26%

22%

Valladolid

32%

38%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Alaves to score 1.12 goals and Valladolid to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Alaves to score 1.48 goals and Valladolid to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Alaves to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.95

1

5.46

2-3

2.03

2

4.13

4+

3.92

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.10

Un 1.5

3.95

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

3.92

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

3.61

3.09

2-3 goals

1.96

4.17

4.00

4+ goals

2.04

3.54

4.40

Ov 1.5

1.99

3.93

4.13

Un 1.5

2.50

3.61

3.09

Ov 2.5

1.72

7.01

3.61

Un 2.5

2.69

2.63

4.02

Ov 3.5

2.04

3.54

4.40

Un 3.5

2.12

3.96

3.63

Goal-Goal

2.38

2.78

4.52

No Goal

1.85

6.73

3.23

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.85

5.71

3.51

NG+Un 2.5

2.05

6.73

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Elche vs Villarreal at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Elche and Villarreal for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Elche

6.51

2.44

25.6

Draw

3.90

3.57

2.4

Villarreal

1.60

3.23

-31.5

Over 2.5

2.21

2.02

4.3

Under 2.5

1.70

1.98

-8.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Elche, Draw, Over 2.5 (25.6 %, 2.4 %, 4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Elche in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance at home.
Elche, at home, had one win, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Valencia

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Jan

Barcelona

H

0

2

L

U

N

19 Jan

Valladolid

A

2

2

D

O

G

11 Jan

Getafe

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Jan

Ath Bilbao

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Dec

Real Madrid

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Osasuna

H

2

2

D

O

G

19 Dec

Ath Madrid

A

1

3

L

O

G


Villarreal in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Villarreal in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Villarreal’s performance as a guest.
Villarreal, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Villarreal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Sociedad

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Jan

Huesca

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Jan

Granada

H

2

2

D

O

G

08 Jan

Celta

A

4

0

W

O

N

02 Jan

Levante

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Dec

Sevilla

A

0

2

L

U

N

22 Dec

Ath Bilbao

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Osasuna

A

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Elche and the red line for guest team, Villarreal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Elche

23%

37%

20%

20%

Villarreal

25%

43%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Elche to score 0.62 goals and Villarreal to score 1.67 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the guest team Villarreal to win by 1.05 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Elche to score 1.38 goals and Villarreal to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.54

0-1

4.03

1

5.24

2-3

2.03

2

3.92

4+

3.86

3

4.22

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.85

Un 1.5

4.03

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.99

Gg

1.73

Ov 3.5

3.86

NoG

2.38

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

4.35

2.53

2-3 goals

2.63

3.09

3.37

4+ goals

2.01

4.05

3.92

Ov 1.5

2.38

3.37

3.54

Un 1.5

2.67

4.35

2.53

Ov 2.5

1.86

7.75

2.99

Un 2.5

3.52

2.33

3.49

Ov 3.5

2.01

4.05

3.92

Un 3.5

2.64

3.43

3.03

Goal-Goal

2.69

2.59

4.13

No Goal

2.17

7.39

2.48

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

6.55

2.99

NG+Un 2.5

2.41

7.39

2.39


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Sevilla vs Getafe at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sevilla and Getafe for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sevilla

1.69

1.80

-3.6

Draw

3.62

4.12

-3.4

Getafe

5.73

4.98

2.6

Over 2.5

2.41

1.99

8.8

Under 2.5

1.59

2.01

-13.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Getafe, Over 2.5 (2.6 %, 8.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sevilla in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance at home.
Sevilla, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 70.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Eibar

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Cadiz

H

3

0

W

O

N

19 Jan

Alaves

A

2

1

W

O

G

12 Jan

Ath Madrid

A

0

2

L

U

N

09 Jan

Sociedad

H

3

2

W

O

G

02 Jan

Betis

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Villarreal

H

2

0

W

U

N

22 Dec

Valencia

A

1

0

W

U

N


Getafe in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Getafe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Getafe’s performance as a guest.
Getafe, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Getafe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Alaves

H

0

0

D

U

N

25 Jan

Ath Bilbao

A

1

5

L

O

G

20 Jan

Huesca

H

1

0

W

U

N

11 Jan

Elche

A

3

1

W

O

G

02 Jan

Valladolid

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Dec

Ath Madrid

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Dec

Celta

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Cadiz

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sevilla and the red line for guest team, Getafe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sevilla

18%

32%

20%

29%

Getafe

41%

35%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.51 goals and Getafe to score 0.65 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.86 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.6 goals and Getafe to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.68

1

5.10

2-3

2.08

2

4.44

4+

4.05

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.68

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

2.08

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

1.93

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.06

3.58

4.25

2-3 goals

1.76

4.29

5.01

4+ goals

1.65

4.41

6.02

Ov 1.5

1.72

4.33

5.31

Un 1.5

2.06

3.58

4.25

Ov 2.5

1.48

8.98

4.70

Un 2.5

2.31

2.64

5.29

Ov 3.5

1.65

4.41

6.02

Un 3.5

1.86

4.01

4.71

Goal-Goal

2.19

2.86

5.17

No Goal

1.55

6.83

4.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.68

6.59

3.97

NG+Un 2.5

1.79

6.83

4.10


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Huesca vs Real Madrid at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Huesca and Real Madrid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Huesca

7.14

2.52

25.7

Draw

4.67

3.60

6.4

Real Madrid

1.44

3.08

-37.0

Over 2.5

1.74

1.92

-5.4

Under 2.5

2.12

2.08

0.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Huesca, Draw, Under 2.5 (25.7 %, 6.4 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Huesca in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huesca in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance at home.
Huesca, at home, had one win, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huesca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Jan

Valladolid

A

3

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Villarreal

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Jan

Getafe

A

0

1

L

U

N

11 Jan

Betis

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Jan

Barcelona

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Dec

Celta

A

1

2

L

O

G

22 Dec

Levante

H

1

1

D

U

G

18 Dec

Ath Bilbao

A

0

2

L

U

N


Real Madrid in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Real Madrid in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance as a guest.
Real Madrid, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Levante

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

Alaves

A

4

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Osasuna

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Jan

Celta

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Elche

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Granada

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Eibar

A

3

1

W

O

G

15 Dec

Ath Bilbao

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Huesca and the red line for guest team, Real Madrid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Huesca

23%

34%

23%

20%

Real Madrid

20%

47%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huesca to score 0.65 goals and Real Madrid to score 2.1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the guest team Real Madrid to win by 1.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.39 goals and Real Madrid to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

21.28

0-1

4.44

1

5.62

2-3

2.00

2

3.92

4+

3.65

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.49

Un 1.5

4.44

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

1.63

Ov 3.5

3.65

NoG

2.58

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.26