Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Alaves vs Valladolid at 05 February 2021
Elche vs Villarreal at 06 February 2021
Sevilla vs Getafe at 06 February 2021
Huesca vs Real Madrid at 06 February 2021
Levante vs Granada at 06 February 2021
Sociedad vs Cadiz at 07 February 2021
Osasuna vs Eibar at 07 February 2021
Ath Bilbao vs Valencia at 07 February 2021
Betis vs Barcelona at 07 February 2021
Ath Madrid vs Celta at 08 February 2021
Alaves vs Valladolid at 05 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Alaves and Valladolid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 05 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Alaves |
2.58 |
2.10 |
8.9 |
|
Draw |
3.03 |
3.85 |
-7.0 |
|
Valladolid |
3.11 |
3.79 |
-5.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.48 |
1.98 |
10.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.56 |
2.02 |
-14.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Alaves, Over 2.5 (8.9 %, 10.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Alaves in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alaves in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance at home.
Alaves, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alaves was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
31 Jan |
Getafe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Real Madrid |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Sevilla |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Cadiz |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Dec |
Osasuna |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Eibar |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Celta |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Valladolid in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance as a guest.
Valladolid, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Jan |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Jan |
Levante |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Elche |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Valencia |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Cadiz |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Sevilla |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Alaves and the red line for guest team, Valladolid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Alaves |
22% |
31% |
26% |
22% |
|
Valladolid |
32% |
38% |
19% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Alaves to score 1.12 goals and Valladolid to score 0.99 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Alaves to score 1.48 goals and Valladolid to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Alaves to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.95 |
|
1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
4.13 |
4+ |
3.92 |
|
3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |
|
5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |
|
NoG |
2.12 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.50 |
3.61 |
3.09 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.96 |
4.17 |
4.00 |
|
4+ goals |
2.04 |
3.54 |
4.40 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.99 |
3.93 |
4.13 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.61 |
3.09 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.72 |
7.01 |
3.61 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.69 |
2.63 |
4.02 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.04 |
3.54 |
4.40 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.12 |
3.96 |
3.63 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.38 |
2.78 |
4.52 |
|
No Goal |
1.85 |
6.73 |
3.23 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
5.71 |
3.51 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.73 |
3.07 |
Go to Top
Elche vs Villarreal at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Elche and Villarreal for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Elche |
6.51 |
2.44 |
25.6 |
|
Draw |
3.90 |
3.57 |
2.4 |
|
Villarreal |
1.60 |
3.23 |
-31.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.21 |
2.02 |
4.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.98 |
-8.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Elche, Draw, Over 2.5 (25.6 %, 2.4 %, 4.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Elche in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance at home.
Elche, at home, had one win, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Valencia |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Valladolid |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
11 Jan |
Getafe |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Real Madrid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Osasuna |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Ath Madrid |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
Villarreal in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Villarreal in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Villarreal’s performance as a guest.
Villarreal, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Villarreal scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Villarreal was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Sociedad |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Huesca |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Jan |
Granada |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
08 Jan |
Celta |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Levante |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Sevilla |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Osasuna |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Elche and the red line for guest team, Villarreal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Elche |
23% |
37% |
20% |
20% |
|
Villarreal |
25% |
43% |
20% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Elche to score 0.62 goals and Villarreal to score 1.67 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the guest team Villarreal to win by 1.05 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Elche to score 1.38 goals and Villarreal to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
17.54 |
0-1 |
4.03 |
|
1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
3.86 |
|
3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
4.03 |
|
5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
Gg |
1.73 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.86 |
|
NoG |
2.38 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.67 |
4.35 |
2.53 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.63 |
3.09 |
3.37 |
|
4+ goals |
2.01 |
4.05 |
3.92 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.38 |
3.37 |
3.54 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.67 |
4.35 |
2.53 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
7.75 |
2.99 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.52 |
2.33 |
3.49 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.01 |
4.05 |
3.92 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.64 |
3.43 |
3.03 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.69 |
2.59 |
4.13 |
|
No Goal |
2.17 |
7.39 |
2.48 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
6.55 |
2.99 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.41 |
7.39 |
2.39 |
Go to Top
Sevilla vs Getafe at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Sevilla and Getafe for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Sevilla |
1.69 |
1.80 |
-3.6 |
|
Draw |
3.62 |
4.12 |
-3.4 |
|
Getafe |
5.73 |
4.98 |
2.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.41 |
1.99 |
8.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
2.01 |
-13.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Getafe, Over 2.5 (2.6 %, 8.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Sevilla in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance at home.
Sevilla, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 70.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Eibar |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Cadiz |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Alaves |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Sociedad |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Betis |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Villarreal |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
Valencia |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Getafe in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Getafe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Getafe’s performance as a guest.
Getafe, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Getafe was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
31 Jan |
Alaves |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
25 Jan |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Jan |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
11 Jan |
Elche |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Valladolid |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Dec |
Celta |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Cadiz |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sevilla and the red line for guest team, Getafe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Sevilla |
18% |
32% |
20% |
29% |
|
Getafe |
41% |
35% |
16% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.51 goals and Getafe to score 0.65 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.86 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.6 goals and Getafe to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.68 |
|
1 |
5.10 |
2-3 |
2.08 |
|
2 |
4.44 |
4+ |
4.05 |
|
3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.68 |
|
5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
Gg |
2.08 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.05 |
|
NoG |
1.93 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.06 |
3.58 |
4.25 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.76 |
4.29 |
5.01 |
|
4+ goals |
1.65 |
4.41 |
6.02 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.72 |
4.33 |
5.31 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.06 |
3.58 |
4.25 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.48 |
8.98 |
4.70 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
2.64 |
5.29 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.65 |
4.41 |
6.02 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.86 |
4.01 |
4.71 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.19 |
2.86 |
5.17 |
|
No Goal |
1.55 |
6.83 |
4.81 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.68 |
6.59 |
3.97 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.79 |
6.83 |
4.10 |
Go to Top
Huesca vs Real Madrid at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Huesca and Real Madrid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Huesca |
7.14 |
2.52 |
25.7 |
|
Draw |
4.67 |
3.60 |
6.4 |
|
Real Madrid |
1.44 |
3.08 |
-37.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.92 |
-5.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.08 |
0.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Huesca, Draw, Under 2.5 (25.7 %, 6.4 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Huesca in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huesca in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance at home.
Huesca, at home, had one win, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huesca was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Jan |
Valladolid |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Villarreal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Jan |
Getafe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
11 Jan |
Betis |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Celta |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Levante |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
18 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Real Madrid in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Real Madrid in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance as a guest.
Real Madrid, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Levante |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Alaves |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Osasuna |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Celta |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Elche |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Granada |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Eibar |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Huesca and the red line for guest team, Real Madrid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Huesca |
23% |
34% |
23% |
20% |
|
Real Madrid |
20% |
47% |
20% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huesca to score 0.65 goals and Real Madrid to score 2.1 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the guest team Real Madrid to win by 1.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huesca to score 1.39 goals and Real Madrid to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
21.28 |
0-1 |
4.44 |
|
1 |
5.62 |
2-3 |
2.00 |
|
2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
3.65 |
|
3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |
|
4 |
5.49 |
Un 1.5 |
4.44 |
|
5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
|
6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
|
Gg |
1.63 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.65 |
|
NoG |
2.58 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.26 |