Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Gillingham vs Lincoln at 05 February 2021
Peterboro vs Crewe at 06 February 2021
Burton vs Hull at 06 February 2021
Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon at 06 February 2021
Swindon vs Shrewsbury at 06 February 2021
Rochdale vs Charlton at 06 February 2021
Portsmouth vs Plymouth at 06 February 2021
Ipswich vs Blackpool at 06 February 2021
Accrington vs Northampton at 06 February 2021
Doncaster vs Oxford at 06 February 2021
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rvs at 06 February 2021
Milton Keynes Dons vs Sunderland at 06 February 2021
Gillingham vs Lincoln at 05 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Gillingham and Lincoln for League One (England), which will take place on 05 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Gillingham |
3.66 |
2.92 |
6.9 |
|
Draw |
3.46 |
3.98 |
-3.8 |
|
Lincoln |
2.02 |
2.46 |
-8.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
1.86 |
5.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.16 |
-9.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Gillingham, Over 2.5 (6.9 %, 5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Gillingham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gillingham in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance at home.
Gillingham, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Gillingham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Sunderland |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Crewe |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Burton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Plymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Rochdale |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Lincoln in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lincoln in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance as a guest.
Lincoln, as a guest, had 8 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 78.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lincoln scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Doncaster |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Peterboro |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Burton |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Northampton |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Gillingham and the red line for guest team, Lincoln.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Gillingham |
33% |
25% |
25% |
18% |
|
Lincoln |
21% |
38% |
23% |
19% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gillingham to score 0.95 goals and Lincoln to score 1.46 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the guest team Lincoln to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gillingham to score 1.28 goals and Lincoln to score 1.39 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.67 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
4.12 |
|
1 |
5.71 |
2-3 |
2.13 |
|
2 |
4.55 |
4+ |
3.46 |
|
3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
5.92 |
Un 1.5 |
4.12 |
|
5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
6+ |
30.30 |
Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
|
Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.46 |
|
NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
4.67 |
3.57 |
1.98 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.54 |
5.04 |
2.46 |
|
4+ goals |
2.73 |
3.21 |
3.11 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.60 |
4.14 |
2.67 |
|
Un 1.5 |
4.67 |
3.57 |
1.98 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
5.98 |
2.56 |
|
Un 2.5 |
4.41 |
2.88 |
2.35 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.73 |
3.21 |
3.11 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.00 |
4.42 |
2.27 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.65 |
2.91 |
3.58 |
|
No Goal |
3.30 |
6.88 |
1.81 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
4.89 |
2.95 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.52 |
6.88 |
1.88 |
Go to Top
Peterboro vs Crewe at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Peterboro and Crewe for League One (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Peterboro |
2.05 |
2.01 |
1.0 |
|
Draw |
3.47 |
3.80 |
-2.5 |
|
Crewe |
3.54 |
4.18 |
-4.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.80 |
2.16 |
-9.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
1.86 |
4.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Peterboro, Under 2.5 (1 %, 4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Peterboro in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Peterboro in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance at home.
Peterboro, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 78.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Peterboro scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Shrewsbury |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Charlton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Rochdale |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Crewe in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crewe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance as a guest.
Crewe, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Crewe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crewe was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Feb |
Shrewsbury |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Ipswich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Plymouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Peterboro and the red line for guest team, Crewe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Peterboro |
19% |
36% |
26% |
18% |
|
Crewe |
38% |
35% |
18% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.59 goals and Crewe to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.44 goals and Crewe to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Peterboro to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.64 |
|
1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
3.83 |
4+ |
4.59 |
|
3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |
|
4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.64 |
|
5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
|
Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.59 |
|
NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.99 |
3.87 |
4.17 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.93 |
3.95 |
4.39 |
|
4+ goals |
2.27 |
3.46 |
3.69 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.02 |
3.79 |
4.16 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.99 |
3.87 |
4.17 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |
7.33 |
3.28 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
2.69 |
5.41 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.46 |
3.69 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.95 |
3.92 |
4.31 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.66 |
2.63 |
4.09 |
|
No Goal |
1.61 |
6.97 |
4.23 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
5.95 |
3.05 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.71 |
6.97 |
4.12 |
Go to Top
Burton vs Hull at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Burton and Hull for League One (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Burton |
4.70 |
3.25 |
9.5 |
|
Draw |
3.87 |
3.65 |
1.6 |
|
Hull |
1.70 |
2.39 |
-17.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.80 |
2.11 |
-8.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
1.90 |
3.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Burton, Draw, Under 2.5 (9.5 %, 1.6 %, 3.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Burton in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burton in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance at home.
Burton, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 10 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
16 Jan |
Ipswich |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Wigan |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Doncaster |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Hull in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Hull scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hull in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Hull scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Hull’s performance as a guest.
Hull, as a guest, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hull scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hull was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Swindon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Portsmouth |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Accrington |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Blackpool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Charlton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
18 Dec |
Portsmouth |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Burton and the red line for guest team, Hull.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Burton |
32% |
33% |
23% |
11% |
|
Hull |
21% |
38% |
29% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Burton to score 0.86 goals and Hull to score 1.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the guest team Hull to win by 0.94 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Burton to score 1.14 goals and Hull to score 1.32 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.86 |
|
1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
1.94 |
|
2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
4.42 |
|
3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |
|
5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
|
Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.42 |
|
NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.70 |
3.81 |
2.14 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.16 |
4.12 |
2.27 |
|
4+ goals |
3.01 |
2.79 |
3.23 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.11 |
3.60 |
2.49 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.70 |
3.81 |
2.14 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.52 |
5.85 |
2.31 |
|
Un 2.5 |
4.38 |
2.73 |
2.47 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.01 |
2.79 |
3.23 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.32 |
4.01 |
2.22 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.26 |
2.60 |
3.24 |
|
No Goal |
3.23 |
6.84 |
1.84 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.50 |
5.06 |
2.48 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.34 |
6.84 |
1.88 |
Go to Top
Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Wigan and AFC Wimbledon for League One (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Wigan |
2.74 |
2.51 |
3.3 |
|
Draw |
3.35 |
3.70 |
-2.8 |
|
AFC Wimbledon |
2.52 |
3.02 |
-6.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.04 |
-3.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.96 |
-1.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Wigan (3.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Wigan in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wigan in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance at home.
Wigan, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wigan scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wigan was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Feb |
Swindon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Burton |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Rochdale |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
AFC Wimbledon in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AFC Wimbledon in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance as a guest.
AFC Wimbledon, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Doncaster |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Portsmouth |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Lincoln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wigan and the red line for guest team, AFC Wimbledon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Wigan |
26% |
32% |
24% |
17% |
|
AFC Wimbledon |
28% |
37% |
24% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.23 goals and AFC Wimbledon to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wigan to score 1.32 goals and AFC Wimbledon to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.85 |
|
1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.05 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |
|
5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |
|
Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.05 |
|
NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.86 |
3.56 |