# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Gillingham vs Lincoln at 05 February 2021**** Peterboro vs Crewe at 06 February 2021**** Burton vs Hull at 06 February 2021**** Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon at 06 February 2021**** Swindon vs Shrewsbury at 06 February 2021**** Rochdale vs Charlton at 06 February 2021**** Portsmouth vs Plymouth at 06 February 2021**** Ipswich vs Blackpool at 06 February 2021**** Accrington vs Northampton at 06 February 2021**** Doncaster vs Oxford at 06 February 2021**** Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rvs at 06 February 2021**** Milton Keynes Dons vs Sunderland at 06 February 2021**

###
Gillingham vs Lincoln at 05 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Gillingham** and **Lincoln** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **05 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Gillingham |
3.66 |
2.92 |
6.9 |

Draw |
3.46 |
3.98 |
-3.8 |

Lincoln |
2.02 |
2.46 |
-8.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
1.86 |
5.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
2.16 |
-9.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Gillingham, Over 2.5 (6.9 %, 5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Gillingham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Gillingham** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Gillingham’s performance** at home**.

Gillingham,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Gillingham scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Gillingham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Sunderland |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Crewe |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Rochdale |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Accrington |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Burton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Plymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Northampton |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Rochdale |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Lincoln** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lincoln** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lincoln’s performance** as a guest**.

Lincoln,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 78.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lincoln scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lincoln was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Doncaster |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Portsmouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Northampton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Peterboro |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Burton |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Northampton |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Gillingham** and the red line for guest team, **Lincoln. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Gillingham |
33% |
25% |
25% |
18% |

Lincoln |
21% |
38% |
23% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Gillingham** to score **0.95 ** goals and **Lincoln** to score **1.46 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the guest team **Lincoln ** to win by **0.51** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Gillingham** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Lincoln** to score **1.39 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.67** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
4.12 |

1 |
5.71 |
2-3 |
2.13 |

2 |
4.55 |
4+ |
3.46 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.92 |
Un 1.5 |
4.12 |

5 |
11.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |

6+ |
30.30 |
Un 2.5 |
2.16 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.46 |

NoG |
2.14 |
Un 3.5 |
1.40 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.67 |
3.57 |
1.98 |

2-3 goals |
2.54 |
5.04 |
2.46 |

4+ goals |
2.73 |
3.21 |
3.11 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.60 |
4.14 |
2.67 |

Un 1.5 |
4.67 |
3.57 |
1.98 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
5.98 |
2.56 |

Un 2.5 |
4.41 |
2.88 |
2.35 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.73 |
3.21 |
3.11 |

Un 3.5 |
3.00 |
4.42 |
2.27 |

Goal-Goal |
2.65 |
2.91 |
3.58 |

No Goal |
3.30 |
6.88 |
1.81 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
4.89 |
2.95 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.52 |
6.88 |
1.88 |

####
Go to Top

###
Peterboro vs Crewe at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Peterboro** and **Crewe** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Peterboro |
2.05 |
2.01 |
1.0 |

Draw |
3.47 |
3.80 |
-2.5 |

Crewe |
3.54 |
4.18 |
-4.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.80 |
2.16 |
-9.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
1.86 |
4.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Peterboro, Under 2.5 (1 %, 4.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Peterboro** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Peterboro** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Peterboro’s performance** at home**.

Peterboro,** at home**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 78.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Peterboro scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Peterboro was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Shrewsbury |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Charlton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Rochdale |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Crewe** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crewe** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crewe’s performance** as a guest**.

Crewe,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Crewe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crewe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Feb |
Shrewsbury |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Ipswich |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Jan |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Plymouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Peterboro** and the red line for guest team, **Crewe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Peterboro |
19% |
36% |
26% |
18% |

Crewe |
38% |
35% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **1.59 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.66** goals in the game and the home team **Peterboro ** to win by **0.52** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Peterboro** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Crewe** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Peterboro ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.64 |

1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.83 |
4+ |
4.59 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.64 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.87 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.59 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.99 |
3.87 |
4.17 |

2-3 goals |
1.93 |
3.95 |
4.39 |

4+ goals |
2.27 |
3.46 |
3.69 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.02 |
3.79 |
4.16 |

Un 1.5 |
1.99 |
3.87 |
4.17 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |
7.33 |
3.28 |

Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
2.69 |
5.41 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.46 |
3.69 |

Un 3.5 |
1.95 |
3.92 |
4.31 |

Goal-Goal |
2.66 |
2.63 |
4.09 |

No Goal |
1.61 |
6.97 |
4.23 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
5.95 |
3.05 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.71 |
6.97 |
4.12 |

####
Go to Top

###
Burton vs Hull at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Burton** and **Hull** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Burton |
4.70 |
3.25 |
9.5 |

Draw |
3.87 |
3.65 |
1.6 |

Hull |
1.70 |
2.39 |
-17.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.80 |
2.11 |
-8.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.03 |
1.90 |
3.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Burton, Draw, Under 2.5 (9.5 %, 1.6 %, 3.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Burton** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burton** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance** at home**.

Burton,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Burton scored in 10 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

16 Jan |
Ipswich |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Gillingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Oxford |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Wigan |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Doncaster |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Hull** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Hull scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hull** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Hull scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Hull’s performance** as a guest**.

Hull,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 59.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Hull scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hull was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Swindon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Accrington |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Portsmouth |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Jan |
Accrington |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Blackpool |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Sunderland |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Charlton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Dec |
Portsmouth |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Burton** and the red line for guest team, **Hull. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Burton |
32% |
33% |
23% |
11% |

Hull |
21% |
38% |
29% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Burton** to score **0.86 ** goals and **Hull** to score **1.8 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.66** goals in the game and the guest team **Hull ** to win by **0.94** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Burton** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Hull** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.86 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
1.94 |

2 |
3.75 |
4+ |
4.42 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |

5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.42 |

NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.70 |
3.81 |
2.14 |

2-3 goals |
3.16 |
4.12 |
2.27 |

4+ goals |
3.01 |
2.79 |
3.23 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.11 |
3.60 |
2.49 |

Un 1.5 |
3.70 |
3.81 |
2.14 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.52 |
5.85 |
2.31 |

Un 2.5 |
4.38 |
2.73 |
2.47 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.01 |
2.79 |
3.23 |

Un 3.5 |
3.32 |
4.01 |
2.22 |

Goal-Goal |
3.26 |
2.60 |
3.24 |

No Goal |
3.23 |
6.84 |
1.84 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.50 |
5.06 |
2.48 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.34 |
6.84 |
1.88 |

####
Go to Top

###
Wigan vs AFC Wimbledon at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wigan** and **AFC Wimbledon** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wigan |
2.74 |
2.51 |
3.3 |

Draw |
3.35 |
3.70 |
-2.8 |

AFC Wimbledon |
2.52 |
3.02 |
-6.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.04 |
-3.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.96 |
-1.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wigan (3.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wigan** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wigan** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Wigan’s performance** at home**.

Wigan,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Wigan scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wigan was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Feb |
Swindon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Rochdale |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Burton |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Dec |
Rochdale |
H |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

**AFC Wimbledon** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **AFC Wimbledon** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AFC Wimbledon’s performance** as a guest**.

AFC Wimbledon,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, AFC Wimbledon scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of AFC Wimbledon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Doncaster |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Crewe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Jan |
Portsmouth |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Sunderland |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Lincoln |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Oxford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wigan** and the red line for guest team, **AFC Wimbledon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wigan |
26% |
32% |
24% |
17% |

AFC Wimbledon |
28% |
37% |
24% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wigan** to score **1.23 ** goals and **AFC Wimbledon** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.08** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wigan** to score **1.32 ** goals and **AFC Wimbledon** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.51** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.13** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.85 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.05 |

3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.05 |

NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.86 |
3.56 |