Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Salford vs Bolton at 06 February 2021
Tranmere vs Port Vale at 06 February 2021
Stevenage vs Morecambe at 06 February 2021
Scunthorpe vs Oldham at 06 February 2021
Newport County vs Grimsby at 06 February 2021
Leyton Orient vs Colchester at 06 February 2021
Exeter vs Bradford at 06 February 2021
Crawley Town vs Harrogate at 06 February 2021
Cheltenham vs Carlisle at 06 February 2021
Barrow vs Cambridge at 06 February 2021
Southend vs Walsall at 06 February 2021
Mansfield vs Forest Green at 06 February 2021
Salford vs Bolton at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Salford and Bolton for League Two (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Salford |
2.35 |
2.26 |
1.7 |
|
Draw |
3.36 |
3.69 |
-2.7 |
|
Bolton |
3.00 |
3.48 |
-4.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.14 |
-2.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.88 |
-2.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Salford (1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Salford in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salford in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance at home.
Salford, at home, had 5 wins, 7 draws, no defeats and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Salford scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salford was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Jan |
Harrogate |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Jan |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Bolton in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance as a guest.
Bolton, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salford and the red line for guest team, Bolton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Salford |
24% |
33% |
26% |
17% |
|
Bolton |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salford to score 1.32 goals and Bolton to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salford to score 1.36 goals and Bolton to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.62 |
|
1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
2.00 |
|
2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.48 |
|
3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |
|
4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.62 |
|
5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
|
6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |
|
Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |
|
NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.56 |
3.49 |
3.10 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.11 |
4.07 |
3.57 |
|
4+ goals |
2.32 |
3.23 |
3.84 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.17 |
3.77 |
3.65 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.56 |
3.49 |
3.10 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.75 |
3.13 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.76 |
2.64 |
3.86 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.32 |
3.23 |
3.84 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.25 |
3.84 |
3.39 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.64 |
2.66 |
4.08 |
|
No Goal |
1.97 |
6.19 |
3.02 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
5.61 |
3.10 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.19 |
2.97 |
Go to Top
Tranmere vs Port Vale at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Tranmere and Port Vale for League Two (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Tranmere |
2.14 |
2.34 |
-4.0 |
|
Draw |
3.42 |
3.65 |
-1.8 |
|
Port Vale |
3.33 |
3.36 |
-0.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.13 |
-5.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.89 |
0.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Tranmere in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tranmere in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance at home.
Tranmere, at home, had 7 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tranmere scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Harrogate |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Bolton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Forest Green |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Bolton |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
Port Vale in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Port Vale in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance as a guest.
Port Vale, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Southend |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Forest Green |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Mansfield |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Barrow |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tranmere and the red line for guest team, Port Vale.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Tranmere |
23% |
37% |
22% |
18% |
|
Port Vale |
32% |
37% |
21% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.47 goals and Port Vale to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Tranmere to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tranmere to score 1.34 goals and Port Vale to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.64 |
|
1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.35 |
|
3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |
|
4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.64 |
|
5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
|
6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |
|
Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |
|
NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.77 |
3.24 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.36 |
3.66 |
3.29 |
|
4+ goals |
2.30 |
3.48 |
3.59 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.34 |
3.60 |
3.38 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.77 |
3.24 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
7.12 |
2.83 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.81 |
2.54 |
3.98 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.48 |
3.59 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.70 |
3.27 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.88 |
2.61 |
3.72 |
|
No Goal |
1.95 |
6.51 |
3.01 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
5.89 |
2.76 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
6.51 |
2.96 |
Go to Top
Stevenage vs Morecambe at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Stevenage and Morecambe for League Two (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Stevenage |
2.92 |
2.75 |
2.1 |
|
Draw |
3.20 |
3.65 |
-3.9 |
|
Morecambe |
2.47 |
2.75 |
-4.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.17 |
-3.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.86 |
-1.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Stevenage (2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Stevenage in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stevenage in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance at home.
Stevenage, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Stevenage scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Feb |
Exeter |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Grimsby |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Morecambe in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Morecambe in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance as a guest.
Morecambe, as a guest, had 6 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Colchester |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stevenage and the red line for guest team, Morecambe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Stevenage |
30% |
32% |
25% |
13% |
|
Morecambe |
29% |
35% |
23% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.14 goals and Morecambe to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stevenage to score 1.21 goals and Morecambe to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.63 |
0-1 |
3.51 |
|
1 |
5.03 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.48 |
|
3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.51 |
|
5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |
|
NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.06 |
3.31 |
2.69 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.51 |
4.31 |
2.71 |
|
4+ goals |
3.01 |
3.05 |
2.93 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.64 |
3.82 |
2.78 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.06 |
3.31 |
2.69 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
6.32 |
2.44 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.28 |
2.69 |
3.09 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.01 |
3.05 |
2.93 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.69 |
3.88 |
2.70 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.07 |
2.66 |
3.34 |
|
No Goal |
2.49 |
5.83 |
2.34 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |
5.26 |
2.58 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.59 |
5.83 |
2.44 |
Go to Top
Scunthorpe vs Oldham at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Scunthorpe and Oldham for League Two (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Scunthorpe |
2.65 |
2.27 |
6.3 |
|
Draw |
3.13 |
3.62 |
-4.3 |
|
Oldham |
2.75 |
3.52 |
-8.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
2.16 |
-6.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.92 |
1.87 |
1.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Scunthorpe, Under 2.5 (6.3 %, 1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Scunthorpe in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance at home.
Scunthorpe, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Jan |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Jan |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
Oldham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oldham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance as a guest.
Oldham, as a guest, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oldham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Jan |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Newport County |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Scunthorpe and the red line for guest team, Oldham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Scunthorpe |
22% |
38% |
21% |
18% |
|
Oldham |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.29 goals and Oldham to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.03 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Scunthorpe to score 1.36 goals and Oldham to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.57 |
|
1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.44 |
|
3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.57 |
|
5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.44 |
|
NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.22 |
3.89 |
3.41 |
|
2-3 goals |