# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Salford vs Bolton at 06 February 2021**** Tranmere vs Port Vale at 06 February 2021**** Stevenage vs Morecambe at 06 February 2021**** Scunthorpe vs Oldham at 06 February 2021**** Newport County vs Grimsby at 06 February 2021**** Leyton Orient vs Colchester at 06 February 2021**** Exeter vs Bradford at 06 February 2021**** Crawley Town vs Harrogate at 06 February 2021**** Cheltenham vs Carlisle at 06 February 2021**** Barrow vs Cambridge at 06 February 2021**** Southend vs Walsall at 06 February 2021**** Mansfield vs Forest Green at 06 February 2021**

###
Salford vs Bolton at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Salford** and **Bolton** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Salford |
2.35 |
2.26 |
1.7 |

Draw |
3.36 |
3.69 |
-2.7 |

Bolton |
3.00 |
3.48 |
-4.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.14 |
-2.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.88 |
-2.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Salford (1.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Salford** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salford** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salford’s performance** at home**.

Salford,** at home**, had 5 wins, 7 draws, no defeats and gathered 22 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Salford scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Oldham |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Harrogate |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Newport County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Jan |
Mansfield |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Walsall |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Bolton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bolton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance** as a guest**.

Bolton,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Salford** and the red line for guest team, **Bolton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Salford |
24% |
33% |
26% |
17% |

Bolton |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Salford** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Bolton** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.62 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.48 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.62 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.56 |
3.49 |
3.10 |

2-3 goals |
2.11 |
4.07 |
3.57 |

4+ goals |
2.32 |
3.23 |
3.84 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.17 |
3.77 |
3.65 |

Un 1.5 |
2.56 |
3.49 |
3.10 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.75 |
3.13 |

Un 2.5 |
2.76 |
2.64 |
3.86 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.32 |
3.23 |
3.84 |

Un 3.5 |
2.25 |
3.84 |
3.39 |

Goal-Goal |
2.64 |
2.66 |
4.08 |

No Goal |
1.97 |
6.19 |
3.02 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
5.61 |
3.10 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.12 |
6.19 |
2.97 |

####
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###
Tranmere vs Port Vale at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Tranmere** and **Port Vale** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Tranmere |
2.14 |
2.34 |
-4.0 |

Draw |
3.42 |
3.65 |
-1.8 |

Port Vale |
3.33 |
3.36 |
-0.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.13 |
-5.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.91 |
1.89 |
0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (0.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Tranmere** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tranmere** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tranmere’s performance** at home**.

Tranmere,** at home**, had 7 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Tranmere scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tranmere was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Morecambe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Harrogate |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Bolton |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Forest Green |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Bradford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Bolton |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Port Vale** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Port Vale** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance** as a guest**.

Port Vale,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Port Vale scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Southend |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Forest Green |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Mansfield |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Barrow |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Tranmere** and the red line for guest team, **Port Vale. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Tranmere |
23% |
37% |
22% |
18% |

Port Vale |
32% |
37% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Tranmere** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Port Vale** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the home team **Tranmere ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Tranmere** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Port Vale** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.24** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.64 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.35 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.64 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |

NoG |
2.11 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.77 |
3.24 |

2-3 goals |
2.36 |
3.66 |
3.29 |

4+ goals |
2.30 |
3.48 |
3.59 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.34 |
3.60 |
3.38 |

Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.77 |
3.24 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
7.12 |
2.83 |

Un 2.5 |
2.81 |
2.54 |
3.98 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.30 |
3.48 |
3.59 |

Un 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.70 |
3.27 |

Goal-Goal |
2.88 |
2.61 |
3.72 |

No Goal |
1.95 |
6.51 |
3.01 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
5.89 |
2.76 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.10 |
6.51 |
2.96 |

####
Go to Top

###
Stevenage vs Morecambe at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stevenage** and **Morecambe** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stevenage |
2.92 |
2.75 |
2.1 |

Draw |
3.20 |
3.65 |
-3.9 |

Morecambe |
2.47 |
2.75 |
-4.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.02 |
2.17 |
-3.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.81 |
1.86 |
-1.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Stevenage (2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stevenage** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stevenage** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stevenage’s performance** at home**.

Stevenage,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 41.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Stevenage scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stevenage was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Feb |
Exeter |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Grimsby |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Morecambe** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Morecambe** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance** as a guest**.

Morecambe,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Colchester |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Jan |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stevenage** and the red line for guest team, **Morecambe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stevenage |
30% |
32% |
25% |
13% |

Morecambe |
29% |
35% |
23% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Morecambe** to score **1.29 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.15** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stevenage** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Morecambe** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.63 |
0-1 |
3.51 |

1 |
5.03 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.48 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.51 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |

NoG |
2.00 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.06 |
3.31 |
2.69 |

2-3 goals |
2.51 |
4.31 |
2.71 |

4+ goals |
3.01 |
3.05 |
2.93 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.64 |
3.82 |
2.78 |

Un 1.5 |
3.06 |
3.31 |
2.69 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
6.32 |
2.44 |

Un 2.5 |
3.28 |
2.69 |
3.09 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.01 |
3.05 |
2.93 |

Un 3.5 |
2.69 |
3.88 |
2.70 |

Goal-Goal |
3.07 |
2.66 |
3.34 |

No Goal |
2.49 |
5.83 |
2.34 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.37 |
5.26 |
2.58 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.59 |
5.83 |
2.44 |

####
Go to Top

###
Scunthorpe vs Oldham at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Scunthorpe** and **Oldham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Scunthorpe |
2.65 |
2.27 |
6.3 |

Draw |
3.13 |
3.62 |
-4.3 |

Oldham |
2.75 |
3.52 |
-8.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.89 |
2.16 |
-6.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.92 |
1.87 |
1.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Scunthorpe, Under 2.5 (6.3 %, 1.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Scunthorpe** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Scunthorpe** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance** at home**.

Scunthorpe,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Jan |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**Oldham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Oldham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance** as a guest**.

Oldham,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 58.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Oldham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Oldham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Jan |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Newport County |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Scunthorpe** and the red line for guest team, **Oldham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Scunthorpe |
22% |
38% |
21% |
18% |

Oldham |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Scunthorpe** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Oldham** to score **1.26 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.56** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.03** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Scunthorpe** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Oldham** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.57 |

1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.44 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.71 |
Un 1.5 |
3.57 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.44 |

NoG |
2.10 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.22 |
3.89 |
3.41 |

2-3 goals |