# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Lens vs Rennes at 06 February 2021**** Lorient vs Reims at 06 February 2021**** Lyon vs Strasbourg at 06 February 2021**** Nantes vs Lille at 07 February 2021**** Brest vs Bordeaux at 07 February 2021**** Montpellier vs Dijon at 07 February 2021**** Nice vs Angers at 07 February 2021**** Nimes vs Monaco at 07 February 2021**** St Etienne vs Metz at 07 February 2021**** Marseille vs Paris SG at 07 February 2021**

###
Lens vs Rennes at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lens** and **Rennes** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lens |
2.74 |
2.30 |
7.0 |

Draw |
3.20 |
3.73 |
-4.4 |

Rennes |
2.70 |
3.36 |
-7.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.31 |
2.40 |
-1.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.72 |
-2.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Lens (7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lens** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lens** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance** at home**.

Lens,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Lens scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Feb |
Marseille |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Montpellier |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Nice |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Nantes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Strasbourg |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Lyon |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Brest |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Rennes** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rennes** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance** as a guest**.

Rennes,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rennes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Feb |
Lorient |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Jan |
Lille |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Brest |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Lyon |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Nantes |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Metz |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Lorient |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Dec |
Marseille |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lens** and the red line for guest team, **Rennes. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lens |
29% |
29% |
32% |
10% |

Rennes |
37% |
36% |
13% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lens** to score **1.1 ** goals and **Rennes** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.22** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.01** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lens** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Rennes** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.26** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.35 |
0-1 |
3.12 |

1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.79 |
4+ |
5.41 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
8.55 |
Un 1.5 |
3.12 |

5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.41 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.71 |

Gg |
2.24 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.41 |

NoG |
1.81 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.94 |
2.99 |
3.08 |

2-3 goals |
1.80 |
4.66 |
4.37 |

4+ goals |
3.70 |
3.36 |
2.31 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.09 |
4.22 |
3.52 |

Un 1.5 |
2.94 |
2.99 |
3.08 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
7.55 |
2.68 |

Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.74 |
4.11 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.70 |
3.36 |
2.31 |

Un 3.5 |
2.12 |
3.82 |
3.75 |

Goal-Goal |
2.67 |
2.77 |
3.78 |

No Goal |
2.07 |
5.17 |
3.09 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
6.18 |
2.88 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.09 |
5.17 |
3.37 |

####
Go to Top

###
Lorient vs Reims at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lorient** and **Reims** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lorient |
2.59 |
2.39 |
3.2 |

Draw |
3.26 |
3.69 |
-3.6 |

Reims |
2.84 |
3.22 |
-4.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.20 |
2.39 |
-3.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
1.72 |
-0.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Lorient (3.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lorient** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lorient** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Lorient** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Lorient** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Lorient’s performance** at home**.

Lorient,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Lorient scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lorient was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Feb |
Rennes |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Jan |
Paris SG |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Dijon |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Bordeaux |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Monaco |
H |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Nice |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Rennes |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Dec |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Reims** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Reims** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance** as a guest**.

Reims,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Reims scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Feb |
Angers |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Strasbourg |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Brest |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Lille |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
St Etienne |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Dijon |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Bordeaux |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Marseille |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lorient** and the red line for guest team, **Reims. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lorient |
29% |
30% |
31% |
10% |

Reims |
36% |
36% |
14% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lorient** to score **1.18 ** goals and **Reims** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lorient** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Reims** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.27** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.52 |
0-1 |
3.12 |

1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
5.32 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.47 |

4 |
8.40 |
Un 1.5 |
3.12 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |

Gg |
2.22 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.32 |

NoG |
1.82 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.91 |
3.05 |
3.05 |

2-3 goals |
1.90 |
4.51 |
3.97 |

4+ goals |
3.84 |
3.36 |
2.27 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.21 |
4.12 |
3.29 |

Un 1.5 |
2.91 |
3.05 |
3.05 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |
7.46 |
2.52 |

Un 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.72 |
3.99 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.84 |
3.36 |
2.27 |

Un 3.5 |
2.20 |
3.79 |
3.55 |

Goal-Goal |
2.82 |
2.73 |
3.58 |

No Goal |
2.13 |
5.23 |
2.95 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
6.11 |
2.71 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
5.23 |
3.24 |

####
Go to Top

###
Lyon vs Strasbourg at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lyon** and **Strasbourg** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lyon |
1.46 |
1.83 |
-13.8 |

Draw |
4.74 |
4.02 |
3.8 |

Strasbourg |
6.64 |
4.90 |
5.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.56 |
2.39 |
-22.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.40 |
1.72 |
16.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Strasbourg, Under 2.5 (3.8 %, 5.3 %, 16.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lyon** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lyon** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lyon’s performance** at home**.

Lyon,** at home**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 24 points, 72.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lyon scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lyon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Feb |
Dijon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Jan |
Bordeaux |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
St Etienne |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

17 Jan |
Metz |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Rennes |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Lens |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Nantes |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Dec |
Nice |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Strasbourg** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Strasbourg** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Strasbourg’s performance** as a guest**.

Strasbourg,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Strasbourg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Feb |
Brest |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Reims |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Dijon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Jan |
St Etienne |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Lens |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Nimes |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Dec |
Paris SG |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Dec |
Bordeaux |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lyon** and the red line for guest team, **Strasbourg. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lyon |
23% |
25% |
35% |
16% |

Strasbourg |
48% |
30% |
14% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lyon** to score **2.28 ** goals and **Strasbourg** to score **0.74 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.02** goals in the game and the home team **Lyon ** to win by **1.54** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lyon** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Strasbourg** to score **0.82 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.26** goals in the game and the home team **Lyon ** to win by **0.62** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.85 |
0-1 |
3.28 |

1 |
5.21 |
2-3 |
1.94 |

2 |
3.61 |
4+ |
5.56 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
8.55 |
Un 1.5 |
3.28 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |

Gg |
2.53 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.56 |

NoG |
1.65 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.50 |
2.70 |
4.36 |

2-3 goals |
1.45 |
6.87 |
6.06 |

4+ goals |
2.54 |
2.95 |
3.75 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.63 |
5.11 |
5.23 |

Un 1.5 |
2.50 |
2.70 |
4.36 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.63 |
6.85 |
4.14 |

Un 2.5 |
1.99 |
3.10 |
5.71 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.54 |
2.95 |
3.75 |

Un 3.5 |
1.72 |
4.36 |
5.29 |

Goal-Goal |
2.23 |
2.90 |
4.82 |

No Goal |
1.63 |
5.35 |
5.00 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |
5.25 |
3.90 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.74 |
5.35 |
4.97 |

####
Go to Top

###
Nantes vs Lille at 07 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Nantes** and **Lille** for **Ligue One (France)**, which will take place on **07 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Nantes |
4.53 |
3.03 |
10.9 |

Draw |
3.49 |
3.47 |
0.2 |

Lille |
1.86 |
2.62 |
-15.6 |

Over 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.45 |
-3.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.69 |
-0.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Nantes, Draw (10.9 %, 0.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 2%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Nantes** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nantes** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nantes’s performance** at home**.

Nantes,** at home**, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 36.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Nantes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nantes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Feb |
St Etienne |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Jan |
Monaco |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Metz |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Lens |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Montpellier |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

06 Jan |
Rennes |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Lyon |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

20 Dec |
Angers |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Lille** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lille** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance** as a guest**.

Lille,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 24 points, 72.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Lille** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Feb |
Bordeaux |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
Dijon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Rennes |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Reims |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Nimes |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Angers |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Montpellier |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Paris SG |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Nantes** and the red line for guest team, **Lille. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Nantes |
36% |
36% |
18% |
10% |

Lille |
36% |
35% |
4% |
25% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Nantes** to score **0.78 ** goals and **Lille** to score **1.47 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.25** goals in the game and the guest team **Lille ** to win by **0.69** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Nantes** to score **1.02 ** goals and **Lille** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.2** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.16** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
7.81 |
0-1 |
2.60 |

1 |
3.91 |
2-3 |
2.44 |

2 |
4.83 |
4+ |
4.88 |

3 |
4.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.63 |

4 |
7.58 |
Un 1.5 |
2.60 |

5 |
20.41 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.46 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.69 |

Gg |
2.43 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.88 |

NoG |
1.71 |
Un 3.5 |
1.26 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.98 |
3.00 |
3.02 |

2-3 goals |
2.52 |
3.17 |
3.47 |