2021 02 05 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lens vs Rennes at 06 February 2021
Lorient vs Reims at 06 February 2021
Lyon vs Strasbourg at 06 February 2021
Nantes vs Lille at 07 February 2021
Brest vs Bordeaux at 07 February 2021
Montpellier vs Dijon at 07 February 2021
Nice vs Angers at 07 February 2021
Nimes vs Monaco at 07 February 2021
St Etienne vs Metz at 07 February 2021
Marseille vs Paris SG at 07 February 2021


Lens vs Rennes at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lens and Rennes for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lens

2.74

2.30

7.0

Draw

3.20

3.73

-4.4

Rennes

2.70

3.36

-7.3

Over 2.5

2.31

2.40

-1.6

Under 2.5

1.64

1.72

-2.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lens (7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lens in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lens in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance at home.
Lens, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Feb

Marseille

H

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Montpellier

A

2

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Nice

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Jan

Marseille

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Strasbourg

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Jan

Lyon

A

2

3

L

O

G

23 Dec

Brest

H

2

1

W

O

G


Rennes in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rennes in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rennes’s performance as a guest.
Rennes, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rennes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rennes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Feb

Lorient

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Lille

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

Brest

A

2

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Lyon

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Jan

Nantes

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Dec

Metz

H

1

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Lorient

A

3

0

W

O

N

16 Dec

Marseille

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lens and the red line for guest team, Rennes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lens

29%

29%

32%

10%

Rennes

37%

36%

13%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lens to score 1.1 goals and Rennes to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lens to score 1.24 goals and Rennes to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.35

0-1

3.12

1

4.69

2-3

2.02

2

3.79

4+

5.41

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

8.55

Un 1.5

3.12

5

18.18

Ov 2.5

2.41

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.71

Gg

2.24

Ov 3.5

5.41

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.94

2.99

3.08

2-3 goals

1.80

4.66

4.37

4+ goals

3.70

3.36

2.31

Ov 1.5

2.09

4.22

3.52

Un 1.5

2.94

2.99

3.08

Ov 2.5

2.02

7.55

2.68

Un 2.5

2.55

2.74

4.11

Ov 3.5

3.70

3.36

2.31

Un 3.5

2.12

3.82

3.75

Goal-Goal

2.67

2.77

3.78

No Goal

2.07

5.17

3.09

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.04

6.18

2.88

NG+Un 2.5

2.09

5.17

3.37


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Lorient vs Reims at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lorient and Reims for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lorient

2.59

2.39

3.2

Draw

3.26

3.69

-3.6

Reims

2.84

3.22

-4.2

Over 2.5

2.20

2.39

-3.6

Under 2.5

1.70

1.72

-0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Lorient (3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lorient in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Lorient in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lorient’s performance at home.
Lorient, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Lorient scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lorient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Feb

Rennes

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Paris SG

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Jan

Dijon

H

3

2

W

O

G

09 Jan

Bordeaux

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Jan

Monaco

H

2

5

L

O

G

23 Dec

Nice

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Dec

Rennes

H

0

3

L

O

N

16 Dec

Paris SG

A

0

2

L

U

N


Reims in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reims in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance as a guest.
Reims, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Feb

Angers

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Jan

Strasbourg

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Brest

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Lille

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Jan

St Etienne

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Dijon

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Dec

Bordeaux

A

3

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Marseille

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lorient and the red line for guest team, Reims.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lorient

29%

30%

31%

10%

Reims

36%

36%

14%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lorient to score 1.18 goals and Reims to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lorient to score 1.22 goals and Reims to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.52

0-1

3.12

1

4.65

2-3

2.03

2

3.82

4+

5.32

3

4.35

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

8.40

Un 1.5

3.12

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.22

Ov 3.5

5.32

NoG

1.82

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.91

3.05

3.05

2-3 goals

1.90

4.51

3.97

4+ goals

3.84

3.36

2.27

Ov 1.5

2.21

4.12

3.29

Un 1.5

2.91

3.05

3.05

Ov 2.5

2.13

7.46

2.52

Un 2.5

2.62

2.72

3.99

Ov 3.5

3.84

3.36

2.27

Un 3.5

2.20

3.79

3.55

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.73

3.58

No Goal

2.13

5.23

2.95

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.14

6.11

2.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.13

5.23

3.24


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Lyon vs Strasbourg at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lyon and Strasbourg for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lyon

1.46

1.83

-13.8

Draw

4.74

4.02

3.8

Strasbourg

6.64

4.90

5.3

Over 2.5

1.56

2.39

-22.3

Under 2.5

2.40

1.72

16.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Strasbourg, Under 2.5 (3.8 %, 5.3 %, 16.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lyon in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lyon in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lyon’s performance at home.
Lyon, at home, had 7 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 24 points, 72.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lyon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Feb

Dijon

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Jan

Bordeaux

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

St Etienne

A

5

0

W

O

N

17 Jan

Metz

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

Rennes

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Jan

Lens

H

3

2

W

O

G

23 Dec

Nantes

H

3

0

W

O

N

19 Dec

Nice

A

4

1

W

O

G


Strasbourg in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Strasbourg in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Strasbourg’s performance as a guest.
Strasbourg, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Strasbourg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Feb

Brest

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Reims

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Jan

Dijon

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Jan

St Etienne

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Lens

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Nimes

H

5

0

W

O

N

23 Dec

Paris SG

A

0

4

L

O

N

20 Dec

Bordeaux

H

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lyon and the red line for guest team, Strasbourg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lyon

23%

25%

35%

16%

Strasbourg

48%

30%

14%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lyon to score 2.28 goals and Strasbourg to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.02 goals in the game and the home team Lyon to win by 1.54 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lyon to score 1.44 goals and Strasbourg to score 0.82 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Lyon to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.85

0-1

3.28

1

5.21

2-3

1.94

2

3.61

4+

5.56

3

4.20

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

8.55

Un 1.5

3.28

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.39

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.72

Gg

2.53

Ov 3.5

5.56

NoG

1.65

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.50

2.70

4.36

2-3 goals

1.45

6.87

6.06

4+ goals

2.54

2.95

3.75

Ov 1.5

1.63

5.11

5.23

Un 1.5

2.50

2.70

4.36

Ov 2.5

1.63

6.85

4.14

Un 2.5

1.99

3.10

5.71

Ov 3.5

2.54

2.95

3.75

Un 3.5

1.72

4.36

5.29

Goal-Goal

2.23

2.90

4.82

No Goal

1.63

5.35

5.00

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.81

5.25

3.90

NG+Un 2.5

1.74

5.35

4.97


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Nantes vs Lille at 07 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nantes and Lille for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 07 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nantes

4.53

3.03

10.9

Draw

3.49

3.47

0.2

Lille

1.86

2.62

-15.6

Over 2.5

2.27

2.45

-3.2

Under 2.5

1.67

1.69

-0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nantes, Draw (10.9 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nantes in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nantes in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nantes’s performance at home.
Nantes, at home, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 36.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nantes scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nantes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Feb

St Etienne

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Monaco

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Jan

Metz

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Jan

Lens

H

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Montpellier

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Jan

Rennes

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Dec

Lyon

A

0

3

L

O

N

20 Dec

Angers

H

1

1

D

U

G


Lille in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lille in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lille’s performance as a guest.
Lille, as a guest, had 7 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 24 points, 72.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lille scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lille was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Feb

Bordeaux

A

3

0

W

O

N

31 Jan

Dijon

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Rennes

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Reims

H

2

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Nimes

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Angers

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Dec

Montpellier

A

3

2

W

O

G

20 Dec

Paris SG

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nantes and the red line for guest team, Lille.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nantes

36%

36%

18%

10%

Lille

36%

35%

4%

25%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nantes to score 0.78 goals and Lille to score 1.47 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and the guest team Lille to win by 0.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nantes to score 1.02 goals and Lille to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.81

0-1

2.60

1

3.91

2-3

2.44

2

4.83

4+

4.88

3

4.95

Ov 1.5

1.63

4

7.58

Un 1.5

2.60

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.46

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.43

Ov 3.5

4.88

NoG

1.71

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.98

3.00

3.02

2-3 goals

2.52

3.17

3.47