# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Newcastle vs Southampton at 06 February 2021**** Man United vs Everton at 06 February 2021**** Fulham vs West Ham at 06 February 2021**** Aston Villa vs Arsenal at 06 February 2021**** Burnley vs Brighton at 06 February 2021**** Tottenham vs West Brom at 07 February 2021**** Wolves vs Leicester at 07 February 2021**** Sheffield United vs Chelsea at 07 February 2021**** Liverpool vs Man City at 07 February 2021**** Leeds vs Crystal Palace at 08 February 2021**

###
Newcastle vs Southampton at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newcastle** and **Southampton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newcastle |
3.00 |
2.49 |
6.8 |

Draw |
3.27 |
3.66 |
-3.3 |

Southampton |
2.47 |
3.08 |
-8.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
2.09 |
-2.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.85 |
1.92 |
-2.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Newcastle (6.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newcastle** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newcastle** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance** at home**.

Newcastle,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newcastle scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Feb |
Crystal Palace |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Everton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Aston Villa |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Jan |
Sheffield United |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Dec |
Liverpool |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Southampton** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southampton** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance** as a guest**.

Southampton,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Southampton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Feb |
Man United |
A |
0 |
9 |
L |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Leicester |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Fulham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Man City |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newcastle** and the red line for guest team, **Southampton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newcastle |
25% |
38% |
19% |
19% |

Southampton |
31% |
35% |
20% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.17** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newcastle** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Southampton** to score **1.17 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.14** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.56 |

1 |
4.90 |
2-3 |
2.11 |

2 |
4.17 |
4+ |
4.07 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.41 |
Un 1.5 |
3.56 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
38.46 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.40 |
3.65 |
3.23 |

2-3 goals |
2.61 |
3.58 |
2.96 |

4+ goals |
2.37 |
3.84 |
3.15 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.67 |
3.02 |

Un 1.5 |
2.40 |
3.65 |
3.23 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
7.48 |
2.55 |

Un 2.5 |
2.98 |
2.49 |
3.80 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.37 |
3.84 |
3.15 |

Un 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.61 |
3.05 |

Goal-Goal |
3.07 |
2.65 |
3.37 |

No Goal |
2.06 |
6.25 |
2.81 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |
6.05 |
2.51 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
6.25 |
2.84 |

####
Go to Top

###
Man United vs Everton at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Man United** and **Everton** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Man United |
1.53 |
2.46 |
-24.7 |

Draw |
4.40 |
3.61 |
5.0 |

Everton |
6.24 |
3.15 |
15.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.68 |
2.12 |
-12.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.25 |
1.89 |
8.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Everton, Under 2.5 (5 %, 15.7 %, 8.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Man United** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man United** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance** at home**.

Man United,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Man United scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Feb |
Southampton |
H |
9 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Fulham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Liverpool |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Everton** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Everton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance** as a guest**.

Everton,** as a guest**, had 7 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 73.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Everton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Newcastle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Jan |
Wolves |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

01 Jan |
West Ham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Sheffield United |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Arsenal |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Dec |
Leicester |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Man United** and the red line for guest team, **Everton. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Man United |
24% |
43% |
10% |
23% |

Everton |
32% |
35% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Man United** to score **2.1 ** goals and **Everton** to score **0.75 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.85** goals in the game and the home team **Man United ** to win by **1.35** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Man United** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Everton** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.34 |

1 |
4.50 |
2-3 |
2.20 |

2 |
4.35 |
4+ |
4.05 |

3 |
4.44 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.34 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
33.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.05 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.18 |
3.88 |
3.52 |

2-3 goals |
3.25 |
3.01 |
2.77 |

4+ goals |
1.90 |
5.04 |
3.63 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.51 |
3.03 |

Un 1.5 |
2.18 |
3.88 |
3.52 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
9.63 |
2.57 |

Un 2.5 |
3.15 |
2.32 |
3.98 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.90 |
5.04 |
3.63 |

Un 3.5 |
2.72 |
3.31 |
3.03 |

Goal-Goal |
3.15 |
2.58 |
3.38 |

No Goal |
1.99 |
6.29 |
2.95 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.23 |
7.47 |
2.39 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.25 |
6.29 |
2.84 |

####
Go to Top

###
Fulham vs West Ham at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Fulham** and **West Ham** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Fulham |
3.56 |
3.83 |
-2.0 |

Draw |
3.52 |
4.05 |
-3.7 |

West Ham |
2.10 |
2.03 |
1.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.89 |
1.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.12 |
-6.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **West Ham, Over 2.5 (1.6 %, 1.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Fulham** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fulham** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance** at home**.

Fulham,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 18.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Fulham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Feb |
Leicester |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
West Brom |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Man United |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Jan |
Tottenham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Southampton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Newcastle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**West Ham** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **West Ham** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance** as a guest**.

West Ham,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 60.6% of the total available.

In these matches, West Ham scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Feb |
Aston Villa |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Burnley |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Jan |
Everton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Brighton |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Fulham** and the red line for guest team, **West Ham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Fulham |
37% |
25% |
30% |
8% |

West Ham |
20% |
31% |
26% |
24% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Fulham** to score **1.01 ** goals and **West Ham** to score **1.48 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the guest team **West Ham ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Fulham** to score **1.08 ** goals and **West Ham** to score **1.53 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and the guest team **West Ham ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
4.20 |

1 |
6.10 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
4.31 |
4+ |
3.72 |

3 |
3.85 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
4.20 |

5 |
10.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
2.13 |

Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.72 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.76 |
3.22 |
2.09 |

2-3 goals |
2.95 |
6.39 |
1.98 |

4+ goals |
6.26 |
2.83 |
2.05 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.62 |
4.42 |
2.01 |

Un 1.5 |
4.76 |
3.22 |
2.09 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.53 |
5.57 |
1.86 |

Un 2.5 |
4.27 |
3.11 |
2.25 |

Ov 3.5 |
6.26 |
2.83 |
2.05 |

Un 3.5 |
3.36 |
4.83 |
2.02 |

Goal-Goal |
3.73 |
2.92 |
2.57 |

No Goal |
3.97 |
6.70 |
1.67 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.16 |
4.48 |
2.17 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.57 |
6.70 |
1.88 |

####
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###
Aston Villa vs Arsenal at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Aston Villa** and **Arsenal** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Aston Villa |
2.66 |
2.24 |
7.0 |

Draw |
3.56 |
3.80 |
-1.8 |

Arsenal |
2.62 |
3.46 |
-9.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.68 |
2.03 |
-10.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.23 |
1.97 |
5.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Aston Villa, Under 2.5 (7 %, 5.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Aston Villa** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aston Villa** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance** at home**.

Aston Villa,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

03 Feb |
West Ham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Burnley |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Newcastle |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Jan |
Man United |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Dec |
Chelsea |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Crystal Palace |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Arsenal** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Arsenal** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance** as a guest**.

Arsenal,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Arsenal scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Feb |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Man United |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Southampton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Jan |
Newcastle |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

14 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
West Brom |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
Brighton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Chelsea |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Aston Villa** and the red line for guest team, **Arsenal. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Aston Villa |
23% |
32% |
26% |
19% |

Arsenal |
33% |
36% |
19% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Aston Villa** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Arsenal** to score **1.43 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.84** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.02** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Aston Villa** to score **1.41 ** goals and **Arsenal** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.79 |

1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
4.02 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.33 |
Un 1.5 |
3.79 |

5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.97 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.02 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.49 |