2021 02 05 Premier League (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Newcastle vs Southampton at 06 February 2021
Man United vs Everton at 06 February 2021
Fulham vs West Ham at 06 February 2021
Aston Villa vs Arsenal at 06 February 2021
Burnley vs Brighton at 06 February 2021
Tottenham vs West Brom at 07 February 2021
Wolves vs Leicester at 07 February 2021
Sheffield United vs Chelsea at 07 February 2021
Liverpool vs Man City at 07 February 2021
Leeds vs Crystal Palace at 08 February 2021


Newcastle vs Southampton at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Newcastle and Southampton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Newcastle

3.00

2.49

6.8

Draw

3.27

3.66

-3.3

Southampton

2.47

3.08

-8.0

Over 2.5

2.00

2.09

-2.2

Under 2.5

1.85

1.92

-2.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Newcastle (6.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Newcastle in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newcastle in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newcastle’s performance at home.
Newcastle, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newcastle scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newcastle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Feb

Crystal Palace

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Everton

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Leeds

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

Aston Villa

A

0

2

L

U

N

18 Jan

Arsenal

A

0

3

L

O

N

12 Jan

Sheffield United

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Jan

Leicester

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Dec

Liverpool

H

0

0

D

U

N


Southampton in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southampton in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southampton’s performance as a guest.
Southampton, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Southampton scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Feb

Man United

A

0

9

L

O

N

30 Jan

Aston Villa

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Arsenal

H

1

3

L

O

G

16 Jan

Leicester

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Jan

Liverpool

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

West Ham

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Fulham

A

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Man City

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newcastle and the red line for guest team, Southampton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Newcastle

25%

38%

19%

19%

Southampton

31%

35%

20%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.15 goals and Southampton to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newcastle to score 1.31 goals and Southampton to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.56

1

4.90

2-3

2.11

2

4.17

4+

4.07

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.56

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

38.46

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.07

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.40

3.65

3.23

2-3 goals

2.61

3.58

2.96

4+ goals

2.37

3.84

3.15

Ov 1.5

2.52

3.67

3.02

Un 1.5

2.40

3.65

3.23

Ov 2.5

2.11

7.48

2.55

Un 2.5

2.98

2.49

3.80

Ov 3.5

2.37

3.84

3.15

Un 3.5

2.53

3.61

3.05

Goal-Goal

3.07

2.65

3.37

No Goal

2.06

6.25

2.81

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.29

6.05

2.51

NG+Un 2.5

2.22

6.25

2.84


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Man United vs Everton at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Man United and Everton for Premier League (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Man United

1.53

2.46

-24.7

Draw

4.40

3.61

5.0

Everton

6.24

3.15

15.7

Over 2.5

1.68

2.12

-12.4

Under 2.5

2.25

1.89

8.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Everton, Under 2.5 (5 %, 15.7 %, 8.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Man United in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man United in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man United’s performance at home.
Man United, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Man United scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man United was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Feb

Southampton

H

9

0

W

O

N

30 Jan

Arsenal

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Jan

Sheffield United

H

1

2

L

O

G

20 Jan

Fulham

A

2

1

W

O

G

17 Jan

Liverpool

A

0

0

D

U

N

12 Jan

Burnley

A

1

0

W

U

N

01 Jan

Aston Villa

H

2

1

W

O

G

29 Dec

Wolves

H

1

0

W

U

N


Everton in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Everton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Everton’s performance as a guest.
Everton, as a guest, had 7 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 73.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Everton scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Everton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Feb

Leeds

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Newcastle

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Jan

Leicester

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Jan

Wolves

A

2

1

W

O

G

01 Jan

West Ham

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Dec

Sheffield United

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Arsenal

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Dec

Leicester

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man United and the red line for guest team, Everton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Man United

24%

43%

10%

23%

Everton

32%

35%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man United to score 2.1 goals and Everton to score 0.75 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the home team Man United to win by 1.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man United to score 1.33 goals and Everton to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.34

1

4.50

2-3

2.20

2

4.35

4+

4.05

3

4.44

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.34

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

33.33

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.18

3.88

3.52

2-3 goals

3.25

3.01

2.77

4+ goals

1.90

5.04

3.63

Ov 1.5

2.60

3.51

3.03

Un 1.5

2.18

3.88

3.52

Ov 2.5

1.97

9.63

2.57

Un 2.5

3.15

2.32

3.98

Ov 3.5

1.90

5.04

3.63

Un 3.5

2.72

3.31

3.03

Goal-Goal

3.15

2.58

3.38

No Goal

1.99

6.29

2.95

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.23

7.47

2.39

NG+Un 2.5

2.25

6.29

2.84


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Fulham vs West Ham at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fulham and West Ham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fulham

3.56

3.83

-2.0

Draw

3.52

4.05

-3.7

West Ham

2.10

2.03

1.6

Over 2.5

1.96

1.89

1.9

Under 2.5

1.88

2.12

-6.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at West Ham, Over 2.5 (1.6 %, 1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Fulham in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fulham in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fulham’s performance at home.
Fulham, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 18.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fulham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fulham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Feb

Leicester

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

West Brom

A

2

2

D

O

G

27 Jan

Brighton

A

0

0

D

U

N

20 Jan

Man United

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Chelsea

H

0

1

L

U

N

13 Jan

Tottenham

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Southampton

H

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Newcastle

A

1

1

D

U

G


West Ham in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, West Ham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at West Ham’s performance as a guest.
West Ham, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 60.6% of the total available.
In these matches, West Ham scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of West Ham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Feb

Aston Villa

A

3

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Liverpool

H

1

3

L

O

G

26 Jan

Crystal Palace

A

3

2

W

O

G

19 Jan

West Brom

H

2

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Burnley

H

1

0

W

U

N

01 Jan

Everton

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Southampton

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Dec

Brighton

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fulham and the red line for guest team, West Ham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fulham

37%

25%

30%

8%

West Ham

20%

31%

26%

24%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fulham to score 1.01 goals and West Ham to score 1.48 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the guest team West Ham to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fulham to score 1.08 goals and West Ham to score 1.53 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the guest team West Ham to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

4.20

1

6.10

2-3

2.03

2

4.31

4+

3.72

3

3.85

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.25

Un 1.5

4.20

5

10.99

Ov 2.5

1.89

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

2.13

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

3.72

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.37

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.76

3.22

2.09

2-3 goals

2.95

6.39

1.98

4+ goals

6.26

2.83

2.05

Ov 1.5

3.62

4.42

2.01

Un 1.5

4.76

3.22

2.09

Ov 2.5

3.53

5.57

1.86

Un 2.5

4.27

3.11

2.25

Ov 3.5

6.26

2.83

2.05

Un 3.5

3.36

4.83

2.02

Goal-Goal

3.73

2.92

2.57

No Goal

3.97

6.70

1.67

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.16

4.48

2.17

NG+Un 2.5

3.57

6.70

1.88


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Aston Villa vs Arsenal at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aston Villa and Arsenal for Premier League (England), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Aston Villa

2.66

2.24

7.0

Draw

3.56

3.80

-1.8

Arsenal

2.62

3.46

-9.3

Over 2.5

1.68

2.03

-10.3

Under 2.5

2.23

1.97

5.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aston Villa, Under 2.5 (7 %, 5.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Aston Villa in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance at home.
Aston Villa, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 48.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

03 Feb

West Ham

H

1

3

L

O

G

30 Jan

Southampton

A

1

0

W

U

N

27 Jan

Burnley

A

2

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Newcastle

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Jan

Man City

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Jan

Man United

A

1

2

L

O

G

28 Dec

Chelsea

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Crystal Palace

H

3

0

W

O

N


Arsenal in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Arsenal in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Arsenal’s performance as a guest.
Arsenal, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Arsenal scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Arsenal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Feb

Wolves

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Man United

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Jan

Southampton

A

3

1

W

O

G

18 Jan

Newcastle

H

3

0

W

O

N

14 Jan

Crystal Palace

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Jan

West Brom

A

4

0

W

O

N

29 Dec

Brighton

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Chelsea

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aston Villa and the red line for guest team, Arsenal.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Aston Villa

23%

32%

26%

19%

Arsenal

33%

36%

19%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.41 goals and Arsenal to score 1.43 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.84 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aston Villa to score 1.41 goals and Arsenal to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.79

1

5.32

2-3

2.05

2

4.10

4+

4.02

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.79

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.02

NoG

2.07

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.49