Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Benfica vs Guimaraes at 05 February 2021
Maritimo vs Sp Lisbon at 05 February 2021
Rio Ave vs Nacional at 05 February 2021
Boavista vs Gil Vicente at 06 February 2021
Pacos Ferreira vs Tondela at 06 February 2021
Sp Braga vs Porto at 07 February 2021
Benfica vs Guimaraes at 05 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Benfica and Guimaraes for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 05 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Benfica |
1.42 |
2.66 |
-32.8 |
|
Draw |
4.64 |
3.61 |
6.1 |
|
Guimaraes |
7.33 |
2.88 |
21.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.72 |
2.20 |
-12.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.14 |
1.83 |
7.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Guimaraes, Under 2.5 (6.1 %, 21.1 %, 7.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Benfica in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benfica in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Benfica’s performance at home.
Benfica, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 79.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Benfica scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benfica was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
01 Feb |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
25 Jan |
Nacional |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Jan |
Porto |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
08 Jan |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Santa Clara |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Portimonense |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Guimaraes in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Guimaraes in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance as a guest.
Guimaraes, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, no defeats and gathered 17 points, 81.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
31 Jan |
Maritimo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Famalicao |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Jan |
Nacional |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Moreirense |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Porto |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
21 Dec |
Santa Clara |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Portimonense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Nov |
Tondela |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Benfica and the red line for guest team, Guimaraes.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Benfica |
29% |
35% |
21% |
15% |
|
Guimaraes |
30% |
36% |
20% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Benfica to score 2.13 goals and Guimaraes to score 0.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Benfica to win by 1.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Benfica to score 1.22 goals and Guimaraes to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.36 |
|
1 |
4.74 |
2-3 |
2.09 |
|
2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
4.46 |
|
3 |
4.33 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |
|
4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |
|
5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
|
6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |
|
Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |
|
NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.79 |
3.43 |
2.87 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.58 |
3.73 |
2.90 |
|
4+ goals |
2.67 |
3.61 |
2.87 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.61 |
3.69 |
2.89 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.79 |
3.43 |
2.87 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
7.34 |
2.43 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.21 |
2.53 |
3.41 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.67 |
3.61 |
2.87 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.66 |
3.61 |
2.88 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.11 |
2.62 |
3.38 |
|
No Goal |
2.33 |
5.78 |
2.51 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |
5.95 |
2.51 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.45 |
5.78 |
2.61 |
Go to Top
Maritimo vs Sp Lisbon at 05 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Maritimo and Sp Lisbon for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 05 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Maritimo |
7.97 |
6.76 |
2.2 |
|
Draw |
4.05 |
4.31 |
-1.5 |
|
Sp Lisbon |
1.45 |
1.61 |
-6.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.94 |
2.16 |
-5.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.89 |
1.86 |
0.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Maritimo, Under 2.5 (2.2 %, 0.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Maritimo in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maritimo in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Maritimo’s performance at home.
Maritimo, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Maritimo scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maritimo was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
31 Jan |
Guimaraes |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Gil Vicente |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
07 Jan |
Sp Braga |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Boavista |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
28 Dec |
Rio Ave |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Belenenses |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
07 Dec |
Farense |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance as a guest.
Sp Lisbon, as a guest, had 7 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 22 points, 91.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
01 Feb |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Boavista |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Jan |
Rio Ave |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
08 Jan |
Nacional |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Belenenses |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Farense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Famalicao |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maritimo and the red line for guest team, Sp Lisbon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Maritimo |
47% |
38% |
14% |
2% |
|
Sp Lisbon |
18% |
28% |
26% |
28% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maritimo to score 0.59 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.33 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maritimo to score 0.71 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.63 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 0.92 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.63 |
0-1 |
3.50 |
|
1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.92 |
|
2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
5.15 |
|
3 |
3.70 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.50 |
|
5 |
22.73 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
|
6+ |
200.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
Gg |
2.30 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.15 |
|
NoG |
1.77 |
Un 3.5 |
1.24 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
4.09 |
3.33 |
2.20 |
|
2-3 goals |
7.55 |
4.96 |
1.50 |
|
4+ goals |
19.40 |
4.85 |
1.35 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
9.05 |
4.93 |
1.46 |
|
Un 1.5 |
4.09 |
3.33 |
2.20 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
8.75 |
11.60 |
1.25 |
|
Un 2.5 |
5.59 |
2.81 |
2.15 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
19.40 |
4.85 |
1.35 |
|
Un 3.5 |
5.81 |
4.23 |
1.69 |
|
Goal-Goal |
8.88 |
3.00 |
1.80 |
|
No Goal |
5.66 |
6.58 |
1.49 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
6.73 |
8.25 |
1.37 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
4.50 |
6.58 |
1.73 |
Go to Top
Rio Ave vs Nacional at 05 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Rio Ave and Nacional for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 05 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Rio Ave |
1.85 |
1.93 |
-2.2 |
|
Draw |
3.25 |
3.86 |
-4.9 |
|
Nacional |
4.60 |
4.50 |
0.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.06 |
4.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.94 |
-10.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Nacional, Over 2.5 (0.5 %, 4.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Rio Ave in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rio Ave in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance at home.
Rio Ave, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
01 Feb |
Porto |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
25 Jan |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
15 Jan |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
08 Jan |
Portimonense |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Dec |
Maritimo |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Boavista |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Nacional in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nacional in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance as a guest.
Nacional, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nacional was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Famalicao |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
25 Jan |
Benfica |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
21 Jan |
Guimaraes |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
Moreirense |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Jan |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Porto |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Dec |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rio Ave and the red line for guest team, Nacional.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Rio Ave |
20% |
32% |
26% |
23% |
|
Nacional |
35% |
44% |
10% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rio Ave to score 1.44 goals and Nacional to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and the home team Rio Ave to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rio Ave to score 1.52 goals and Nacional to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Rio Ave to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.49 |
0-1 |
3.75 |
|
1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
4.03 |
4+ |
4.20 |
|
3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |
|
5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
|
6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |
|
Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.20 |
|
NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.43 |
3.87 |
3.03 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.75 |
3.54 |
6.89 |
|
4+ goals |
1.89 |
4.76 |
3.84 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.79 |
3.86 |
5.48 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.87 |
3.03 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.51 |
9.72 |
4.23 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.59 |
2.46 |
4.81 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.89 |
4.76 |
3.84 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.94 |
3.65 |
4.77 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.18 |
2.75 |
5.62 |
|
No Goal |
1.71 |
6.93 |
3.71 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.60 |
7.66 |
4.12 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.88 |
6.93 |
3.50 |
Go to Top
Boavista vs Gil Vicente at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Boavista and Gil Vicente for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Boavista |
2.54 |
2.62 |
-1.2 |
|
Draw |
2.88 |
3.61 |
-7.0 |
|
Gil Vicente |
3.07 |
2.93 |
1.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.62 |
2.17 |
7.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.49 |
1.85 |
-13.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Gil Vicente, Over 2.5 (1.6 %, 7.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Boavista in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boavista in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance at home.
Boavista, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boavista was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Tondela |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Maritimo |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
28 Dec |
Sp Braga |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Dec |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Gil Vicente in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gil Vicente in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance as a guest.
Gil Vicente, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Maritimo |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Farense |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
04 Jan |
Belenenses |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Famalicao |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Benfica |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Moreirense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Boavista and the red line for guest team, Gil Vicente.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Boavista |
28% |
35% |
21% |
16% |
|
Gil Vicente |
29% |
38% |
18% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.08 goals and Gil Vicente to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.02 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.24 goals and Gil Vicente to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.40 |
|
1 |
4.74 |
2-3 |
2.10 |
|
2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
4.35 |
|
3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
6.76 |
Un 1.5 |
3.40 |
|
5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |
|
Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.35 |
|
NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |