2021 02 05 Segunda Division (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Albacete vs Mallorca at 05 February 2021
Logrones vs Sp Gijon at 06 February 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Almeria at 06 February 2021
Cartagena vs Oviedo at 06 February 2021
Castellon vs Mirandes at 07 February 2021
Malaga vs Zaragoza at 07 February 2021
Las Palmas vs Sabadell at 07 February 2021
Vallecano vs Tenerife at 07 February 2021
Girona vs Leganes at 07 February 2021
Ponferradina vs Alcorcon at 08 February 2021
Lugo vs Espanol at 08 February 2021


Albacete vs Mallorca at 05 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Albacete and Mallorca for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 05 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Albacete

4.41

3.22

8.4

Draw

2.99

3.65

-6.0

Mallorca

2.00

2.41

-8.5

Over 2.5

2.56

2.09

8.8

Under 2.5

1.49

1.92

-15.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Albacete, Over 2.5 (8.4 %, 8.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Albacete in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Albacete in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Albacete’s performance at home.
Albacete, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Albacete scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Albacete was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Oviedo

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Alcorcon

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Jan

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Malaga

H

1

1

D

U

G

21 Dec

Mirandes

A

2

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Castellon

A

0

3

L

O

N

06 Dec

Girona

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Dec

Sp Gijon

A

0

0

D

U

N


Mallorca in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mallorca in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mallorca’s performance as a guest.
Mallorca, as a guest, had 7 wins, 4 draws, no defeats and gathered 25 points, 75.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Mallorca scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mallorca was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Girona

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Vallecano

A

3

1

W

O

G

10 Jan

Las Palmas

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Jan

Oviedo

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Dec

Fuenlabrada

H

2

3

L

O

G

12 Dec

Leganes

A

1

0

W

U

N

07 Dec

Castellon

H

3

1

W

O

G

03 Dec

Almeria

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Albacete and the red line for guest team, Mallorca.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Albacete

26%

43%

23%

8%

Mallorca

26%

28%

32%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Albacete to score 0.76 goals and Mallorca to score 1.28 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.04 goals in the game and the guest team Mallorca to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Albacete to score 1.14 goals and Mallorca to score 1.32 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.49

0-1

3.91

1

5.35

2-3

1.91

2

3.76

4+

4.57

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.91

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.10

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

2.19

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.27

3.71

3.46

2-3 goals

3.59

4.33

2.04

4+ goals

4.29

2.61

2.61

Ov 1.5

3.77

3.62

2.18

Un 1.5

2.27

3.71

3.46

Ov 2.5

3.48

5.68

1.86

Un 2.5

3.02

2.75

3.28

Ov 3.5

4.29

2.61

2.61

Un 3.5

3.01

4.11

2.36

Goal-Goal

4.71

2.64

2.44

No Goal

2.34

6.62

2.37

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.66

5.01

1.90

NG+Un 2.5

2.32

6.62

2.52


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Logrones vs Sp Gijon at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Logrones and Sp Gijon for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Logrones

3.17

2.17

14.5

Draw

2.84

3.62

-7.6

Sp Gijon

2.48

3.77

-13.8

Over 2.5

2.83

2.31

8.0

Under 2.5

1.43

1.76

-13.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Logrones, Over 2.5 (14.5 %, 8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Logrones in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Logrones in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Logrones’s performance at home.
Logrones, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Logrones scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Logrones was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

01 Feb

Sabadell

A

0

0

D

U

N

24 Jan

Oviedo

H

0

0

D

U

N

08 Jan

Zaragoza

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Jan

Mirandes

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Malaga

A

0

0

D

U

N

13 Dec

Espanol

H

0

3

L

O

N

10 Dec

Girona

A

0

2

L

U

N

05 Dec

Vallecano

A

1

2

L

O

G


Sp Gijon in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Gijon in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sp Gijon’s performance as a guest.
Sp Gijon, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Gijon scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Gijon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Cartagena

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Jan

Castellon

A

0

2

L

U

N

11 Jan

Fuenlabrada

H

2

1

W

O

G

04 Jan

Lugo

A

0

0

D

U

N

21 Dec

Leganes

H

1

1

D

U

G

13 Dec

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Espanol

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Dec

Albacete

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Logrones and the red line for guest team, Sp Gijon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Logrones

24%

35%

26%

16%

Sp Gijon

36%

37%

19%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Logrones to score 0.88 goals and Sp Gijon to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 1.93 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Logrones to score 1.33 goals and Sp Gijon to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Logrones to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.32

1

4.67

2-3

1.99

2

3.76

4+

5.08

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.46

Un 1.5

3.32

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.31

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.07

Ov 3.5

5.08

NoG

1.94

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.39

3.46

3.42

2-3 goals

2.05

3.92

3.89

4+ goals

2.21

3.23

4.19

Ov 1.5

2.09

3.70

3.97

Un 1.5

2.39

3.46

3.42

Ov 2.5

1.80

7.10

3.31

Un 2.5

2.59

2.64

4.26

Ov 3.5

2.21

3.23

4.19

Un 3.5

2.16

3.73

3.70

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.56

4.32

No Goal

1.86

5.93

3.39

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

5.84

3.18

NG+Un 2.5

2.00

5.93

3.30


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Fuenlabrada vs Almeria at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Almeria for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fuenlabrada

3.24

2.66

6.7

Draw

2.81

3.46

-6.7

Almeria

2.55

2.99

-5.8

Over 2.5

2.40

2.49

-1.5

Under 2.5

1.58

1.67

-3.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Fuenlabrada (6.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Fuenlabrada in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fuenlabrada in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fuenlabrada’s performance at home.
Fuenlabrada, at home, had 2 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fuenlabrada scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fuenlabrada was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Tenerife

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Jan

Alcorcon

H

0

0

D

U

N

11 Jan

Sp Gijon

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Leganes

H

0

0

D

U

N

19 Dec

Mallorca

A

3

2

W

O

G

12 Dec

Mirandes

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Dec

Zaragoza

A

0

1

L

U

N

01 Dec

Malaga

H

0

2

L

U

N


Almeria in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Almeria scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Almeria in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Almeria scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Almeria’s performance as a guest.
Almeria, as a guest, had 7 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 70.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Almeria scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Almeria was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Castellon

H

3

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Sabadell

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Jan

Ponferradina

H

3

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Espanol

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Dec

Malaga

H

3

1

W

O

G

09 Dec

Zaragoza

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Dec

Alcorcon

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Dec

Mallorca

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fuenlabrada and the red line for guest team, Almeria.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fuenlabrada

30%

37%

23%

10%

Almeria

34%

35%

22%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 0.99 goals and Almeria to score 1.16 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.17 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.14 goals and Almeria to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.00

0-1

3.05

1

4.39

2-3

2.02

2

3.69

4+

5.65

3

4.44

Ov 1.5

1.49

4

8.13

Un 1.5

3.05

5

22.73

Ov 2.5

2.49

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.67

Gg

2.14

Ov 3.5

5.65

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.21

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.67

3.28

3.12

2-3 goals

2.56

3.82

2.88

4+ goals

3.00

2.95

3.05

Ov 1.5

2.66

3.54

2.93

Un 1.5

2.67

3.28

3.12

Ov 2.5

2.28

6.70

2.42

Un 2.5

2.99

2.60

3.54

Ov 3.5

3.00

2.95

3.05

Un 3.5

2.60

3.58

2.97

Goal-Goal

3.32

2.46

3.42

No Goal

2.27

5.33

2.69

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.40

5.63

2.47

NG+Un 2.5

2.35

5.33

2.78


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Cartagena vs Oviedo at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Cartagena and Oviedo for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Cartagena

2.86

2.53

4.6

Draw

2.92

3.47

-5.4

Oviedo

2.77

3.15

-4.4

Over 2.5

2.58

2.48

1.6

Under 2.5

1.52

1.68

-6.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Cartagena, Over 2.5 (4.6 %, 1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Cartagena in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cartagena in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cartagena’s performance at home.
Cartagena, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cartagena was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Sp Gijon

A

0

0

D

U

N

25 Jan

Mirandes

H

0

2

L

U

N

10 Jan

Tenerife

A

0

3

L

O

N

02 Jan

Zaragoza

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Alcorcon

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Dec

Sabadell

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Malaga

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Dec

Espanol

H

1

3

L

O

G


Oviedo in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oviedo in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Oviedo’s performance as a guest.
Oviedo, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oviedo scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oviedo was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Albacete

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Jan

Logrones

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Malaga

A

1

1

D

U

G

03 Jan

Mallorca

H

2

2

D

O

G

18 Dec

Ponferradina

A

0

1

L

U

N

11 Dec

Tenerife

H

4

2

W

O

G

06 Dec

Sabadell

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Dec

Alcorcon

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cartagena and the red line for guest team, Oviedo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Cartagena

29%

36%

24%

12%

Oviedo

34%

36%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.02 goals and Oviedo to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.05 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.18 goals and Oviedo to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.10

0-1

3.07

1

4.41

2-3

2.02

2

3.70

4+

5.56

3

4.44

Ov 1.5

1.48

4

8.13

Un 1.5

3.07

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.47

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

5.56

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.65

3.29