2021 02 05 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Fiorentina vs Inter at 05 February 2021
Genoa vs Napoli at 06 February 2021
Atalanta vs Torino at 06 February 2021
Juventus vs Roma at 06 February 2021
Sassuolo vs Spezia at 06 February 2021
Milan vs Crotone at 07 February 2021
Udinese vs Verona at 07 February 2021
Parma vs Bologna at 07 February 2021
Lazio vs Cagliari at 07 February 2021
Benevento vs Sampdoria at 07 February 2021


Fiorentina vs Inter at 05 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fiorentina and Inter for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 05 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Fiorentina

6.44

2.92

18.7

Draw

4.18

3.85

2.1

Inter

1.55

2.52

-24.8

Over 2.5

1.74

1.96

-6.5

Under 2.5

2.16

2.04

2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Fiorentina, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.7 %, 2.1 %, 2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Fiorentina in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fiorentina in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fiorentina’s performance at home.
Fiorentina, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fiorentina was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Jan

Torino

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Jan

Crotone

H

2

1

W

O

G

17 Jan

Napoli

A

0

6

L

O

N

10 Jan

Cagliari

H

1

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Lazio

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Jan

Bologna

H

0

0

D

U

N

22 Dec

Juventus

A

3

0

W

O

N

19 Dec

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G


Inter in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Inter in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Inter’s performance as a guest.
Inter, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Inter scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Inter was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Benevento

H

4

0

W

O

N

23 Jan

Udinese

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Jan

Juventus

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Roma

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Jan

Sampdoria

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Jan

Crotone

H

6

2

W

O

G

23 Dec

Verona

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Spezia

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Fiorentina and the red line for guest team, Inter.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Fiorentina

31%

28%

28%

13%

Inter

29%

28%

24%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fiorentina to score 0.73 goals and Inter to score 2.03 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the guest team Inter to win by 1.3 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fiorentina to score 1.23 goals and Inter to score 1.34 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.91

1

6.02

2-3

2.10

2

4.27

4+

3.76

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.37

Un 1.5

3.91

5

11.76

Ov 2.5

1.96

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

2.05

Ov 3.5

3.76

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.24

2.84

2.94

2-3 goals

2.43

6.28

2.33

4+ goals

4.03

2.86

2.49

Ov 1.5

2.84

4.40

2.38

Un 1.5

3.24

2.84

2.94

Ov 2.5

2.81

5.47

2.17

Un 2.5

3.06

2.95

2.99

Ov 3.5

4.03

2.86

2.49

Un 3.5

2.67

4.42

2.51

Goal-Goal

3.39

2.89

2.79

No Goal

2.59

5.68

2.28

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.86

4.43

2.35

NG+Un 2.5

2.59

5.68

2.52


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Genoa vs Napoli at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Genoa and Napoli for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Genoa

5.26

2.81

16.6

Draw

3.81

3.76

0.3

Napoli

1.68

2.65

-21.8

Over 2.5

1.77

2.06

-8.0

Under 2.5

2.08

1.94

3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Genoa, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.6 %, 0.3 %, 3.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Genoa in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Genoa in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance at home.
Genoa, at home, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Crotone

A

3

0

W

O

N

24 Jan

Cagliari

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Atalanta

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Bologna

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Sassuolo

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Jan

Lazio

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Spezia

A

2

1

W

O

G

20 Dec

Benevento

A

0

2

L

U

N


Napoli in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Napoli in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance as a guest.
Napoli, as a guest, had 6 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Napoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Parma

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Verona

A

1

3

L

O

G

17 Jan

Fiorentina

H

6

0

W

O

N

10 Jan

Udinese

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Spezia

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Jan

Cagliari

A

4

1

W

O

G

23 Dec

Torino

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Lazio

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Genoa and the red line for guest team, Napoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Genoa

29%

35%

21%

15%

Napoli

30%

29%

25%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Genoa to score 0.83 goals and Napoli to score 1.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the guest team Napoli to win by 1.05 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Genoa to score 1.22 goals and Napoli to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.49

0-1

3.60

1

5.24

2-3

2.10

2

4.22

4+

4.07

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.58

Un 1.5

3.60

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.06

6+

41.67

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.07

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.60

3.20

3.31

2-3 goals

2.82

4.62

2.33

4+ goals

3.11

3.24

2.70

Ov 1.5

2.91

4.03

2.45

Un 1.5

2.60

3.20

3.31

Ov 2.5

2.62

6.38

2.17

Un 2.5

3.03

2.71

3.32

Ov 3.5

3.11

3.24

2.70

Un 3.5

2.73

3.97

2.62

Goal-Goal

3.55

2.78

2.79

No Goal

2.34

5.78

2.50

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.81

5.18

2.21

NG+Un 2.5

2.42

5.78

2.66


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Atalanta vs Torino at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Atalanta and Torino for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Atalanta

1.42

2.25

-26.0

Draw

4.94

3.34

9.7

Torino

7.29

3.89

12.0

Over 2.5

1.53

2.31

-22.1

Under 2.5

2.46

1.76

16.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Torino, Under 2.5 (9.7 %, 12 %, 16.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Atalanta in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atalanta in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance at home.
Atalanta, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Atalanta scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atalanta was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Lazio

H

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Milan

A

3

0

W

O

N

20 Jan

Udinese

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Jan

Genoa

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Benevento

A

4

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Parma

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Jan

Sassuolo

H

5

1

W

O

G

23 Dec

Bologna

A

2

2

D

O

G


Torino in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torino in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance as a guest.
Torino, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

29 Jan

Fiorentina

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Jan

Benevento

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Jan

Spezia

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Milan

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Jan

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Jan

Parma

A

3

0

W

O

N

23 Dec

Napoli

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Bologna

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Atalanta and the red line for guest team, Torino.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Atalanta

29%

19%

37%

14%

Torino

50%

8%

33%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atalanta to score 2.37 goals and Torino to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.07 goals in the game and the home team Atalanta to win by 1.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atalanta to score 1.36 goals and Torino to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Atalanta to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

6.76

0-1

3.72

1

8.26

2-3

2.04

2

3.33

4+

4.15

3

5.24

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.72

5

12.82

Ov 2.5

2.31

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.84

Ov 3.5

4.15

NoG

1.54

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.80

1.82

10.76

2-3 goals

1.70

30.69

2.64

4+ goals

4.08

1.79

5.13

Ov 1.5

2.10

4.85

3.14

Un 1.5

2.80

1.82

10.76

Ov 2.5

2.67

3.20

3.20

Un 2.5

2.02

3.47

4.63

Ov 3.5

4.08

1.79

5.13

Un 3.5

1.97

4.63

3.60

Goal-Goal

3.91

2.33

3.17

No Goal

1.83

4.39

4.41

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.73

2.49

3.03

NG+Un 2.5

1.96

4.39

4.50


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Juventus vs Roma at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Juventus and Roma for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Juventus

1.76

2.17

-10.7

Draw

4.07

3.82

1.6

Roma

4.45

3.60

5.3

Over 2.5

1.59

2.23

-18.1

Under 2.5

2.44

1.81

14.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Roma, Under 2.5 (1.6 %, 5.3 %, 14.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Juventus in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance at home.
Juventus, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 23 points, 76.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Sampdoria

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Bologna

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Inter

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Jan

Sassuolo

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Milan

A

3

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Udinese

H

4

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Fiorentina

H

0

3

L

O

N

19 Dec

Parma

A

4

0

W

O

N


Roma in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Roma in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Roma’s performance as a guest.
Roma, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Roma scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Roma was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Verona

H

3

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Spezia

H

4

3

W

O

G

15 Jan

Lazio

A

0

3

L

O

N

10 Jan

Inter

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Jan

Crotone

A

3

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Sampdoria

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Dec

Cagliari

H

3

2

W

O

G

20 Dec

Atalanta

A

1

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Juventus and the red line for guest team, Roma.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Juventus

26%

31%

26%

17%

Roma

45%

18%

29%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Juventus to score 2 goals and Roma to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.01 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 0.99 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Juventus to score 1.34 goals and Roma to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and the home team Juventus to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.55

0-1

3.29

1

5.35

2-3

2.07

2

4.02

4+

4.69

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.63

Un 1.5

3.29

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.24

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.46

Ov 3.5

4.69

NoG

1.69

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-