# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Fiorentina vs Inter at 05 February 2021**** Genoa vs Napoli at 06 February 2021**** Atalanta vs Torino at 06 February 2021**** Juventus vs Roma at 06 February 2021**** Sassuolo vs Spezia at 06 February 2021**** Milan vs Crotone at 07 February 2021**** Udinese vs Verona at 07 February 2021**** Parma vs Bologna at 07 February 2021**** Lazio vs Cagliari at 07 February 2021**** Benevento vs Sampdoria at 07 February 2021**

###
Fiorentina vs Inter at 05 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Fiorentina** and **Inter** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **05 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Fiorentina |
6.44 |
2.92 |
18.7 |

Draw |
4.18 |
3.85 |
2.1 |

Inter |
1.55 |
2.52 |
-24.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.96 |
-6.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.04 |
2.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Fiorentina, Draw, Under 2.5 (18.7 %, 2.1 %, 2.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Fiorentina** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Fiorentina** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fiorentina’s performance** at home**.

Fiorentina,** at home**, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 53.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Fiorentina scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Fiorentina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Jan |
Torino |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Jan |
Crotone |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Napoli |
A |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

10 Jan |
Cagliari |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Lazio |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Bologna |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Juventus |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Dec |
Verona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Inter** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Inter scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Inter** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Inter scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Inter’s performance** as a guest**.

Inter,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Inter scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Inter was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Benevento |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
Udinese |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Juventus |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Roma |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Sampdoria |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Crotone |
H |
6 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Verona |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Spezia |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Fiorentina** and the red line for guest team, **Inter. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Fiorentina |
31% |
28% |
28% |
13% |

Inter |
29% |
28% |
24% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Fiorentina** to score **0.73 ** goals and **Inter** to score **2.03 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.77** goals in the game and the guest team **Inter ** to win by **1.3** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Fiorentina** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Inter** to score **1.34 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.11 |
0-1 |
3.91 |

1 |
6.02 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
3.76 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.37 |
Un 1.5 |
3.91 |

5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.76 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.24 |
2.84 |
2.94 |

2-3 goals |
2.43 |
6.28 |
2.33 |

4+ goals |
4.03 |
2.86 |
2.49 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.84 |
4.40 |
2.38 |

Un 1.5 |
3.24 |
2.84 |
2.94 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.81 |
5.47 |
2.17 |

Un 2.5 |
3.06 |
2.95 |
2.99 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.03 |
2.86 |
2.49 |

Un 3.5 |
2.67 |
4.42 |
2.51 |

Goal-Goal |
3.39 |
2.89 |
2.79 |

No Goal |
2.59 |
5.68 |
2.28 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.86 |
4.43 |
2.35 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.59 |
5.68 |
2.52 |

####
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###
Genoa vs Napoli at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Genoa** and **Napoli** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Genoa |
5.26 |
2.81 |
16.6 |

Draw |
3.81 |
3.76 |
0.3 |

Napoli |
1.68 |
2.65 |
-21.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.77 |
2.06 |
-8.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.08 |
1.94 |
3.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Genoa, Draw, Under 2.5 (16.6 %, 0.3 %, 3.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Genoa** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Genoa** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa scored in 2 of them** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance** at home**.

Genoa,** at home**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

31 Jan |
Crotone |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Jan |
Cagliari |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Atalanta |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Bologna |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Sassuolo |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Lazio |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Dec |
Spezia |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Benevento |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Napoli** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Napoli** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance** as a guest**.

Napoli,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Napoli was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

31 Jan |
Parma |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Verona |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Fiorentina |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

10 Jan |
Udinese |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Spezia |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Cagliari |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Torino |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Lazio |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Genoa** and the red line for guest team, **Napoli. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Genoa |
29% |
35% |
21% |
15% |

Napoli |
30% |
29% |
25% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Genoa** to score **0.83 ** goals and **Napoli** to score **1.88 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and the guest team **Napoli ** to win by **1.05** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Genoa** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Napoli** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.05** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.60 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
2.10 |

2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
4.07 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.60 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |

6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.60 |
3.20 |
3.31 |

2-3 goals |
2.82 |
4.62 |
2.33 |

4+ goals |
3.11 |
3.24 |
2.70 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.91 |
4.03 |
2.45 |

Un 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.20 |
3.31 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.62 |
6.38 |
2.17 |

Un 2.5 |
3.03 |
2.71 |
3.32 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.11 |
3.24 |
2.70 |

Un 3.5 |
2.73 |
3.97 |
2.62 |

Goal-Goal |
3.55 |
2.78 |
2.79 |

No Goal |
2.34 |
5.78 |
2.50 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.81 |
5.18 |
2.21 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.42 |
5.78 |
2.66 |

####
Go to Top

###
Atalanta vs Torino at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Atalanta** and **Torino** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Atalanta |
1.42 |
2.25 |
-26.0 |

Draw |
4.94 |
3.34 |
9.7 |

Torino |
7.29 |
3.89 |
12.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.53 |
2.31 |
-22.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.46 |
1.76 |
16.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Torino, Under 2.5 (9.7 %, 12 %, 16.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Atalanta** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Atalanta** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atalanta’s performance** at home**.

Atalanta,** at home**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Atalanta scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Atalanta was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

31 Jan |
Lazio |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Milan |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Jan |
Udinese |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

17 Jan |
Genoa |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Benevento |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Parma |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Jan |
Sassuolo |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Bologna |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Torino** in the **last six** matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Torino** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance** as a guest**.

Torino,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Jan |
Fiorentina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Jan |
Benevento |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Spezia |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Milan |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Verona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Jan |
Parma |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Dec |
Napoli |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Bologna |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Atalanta** and the red line for guest team, **Torino. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Atalanta |
29% |
19% |
37% |
14% |

Torino |
50% |
8% |
33% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Atalanta** to score **2.37 ** goals and **Torino** to score **0.7 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.07** goals in the game and the home team **Atalanta ** to win by **1.67** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Atalanta** to score **1.36 ** goals and **Torino** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and the home team **Atalanta ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
6.76 |
0-1 |
3.72 |

1 |
8.26 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.33 |
4+ |
4.15 |

3 |
5.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.72 |

5 |
12.82 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |

Gg |
2.84 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.15 |

NoG |
1.54 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.80 |
1.82 |
10.76 |

2-3 goals |
1.70 |
30.69 |
2.64 |

4+ goals |
4.08 |
1.79 |
5.13 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.10 |
4.85 |
3.14 |

Un 1.5 |
2.80 |
1.82 |
10.76 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.67 |
3.20 |
3.20 |

Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
3.47 |
4.63 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.08 |
1.79 |
5.13 |

Un 3.5 |
1.97 |
4.63 |
3.60 |

Goal-Goal |
3.91 |
2.33 |
3.17 |

No Goal |
1.83 |
4.39 |
4.41 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.73 |
2.49 |
3.03 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.96 |
4.39 |
4.50 |

####
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###
Juventus vs Roma at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Juventus** and **Roma** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Juventus |
1.76 |
2.17 |
-10.7 |

Draw |
4.07 |
3.82 |
1.6 |

Roma |
4.45 |
3.60 |
5.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.59 |
2.23 |
-18.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.44 |
1.81 |
14.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Roma, Under 2.5 (1.6 %, 5.3 %, 14.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Juventus** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Juventus** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance** at home**.

Juventus,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 23 points, 76.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Sampdoria |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Bologna |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Inter |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Sassuolo |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Milan |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Udinese |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Fiorentina |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Dec |
Parma |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

**Roma** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Roma scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Roma** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Roma scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Roma’s performance** as a guest**.

Roma,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Roma scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Roma was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

31 Jan |
Verona |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Spezia |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Jan |
Lazio |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

10 Jan |
Inter |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Crotone |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Sampdoria |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Cagliari |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Atalanta |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Juventus** and the red line for guest team, **Roma. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Juventus |
26% |
31% |
26% |
17% |

Roma |
45% |
18% |
29% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Juventus** to score **2 ** goals and **Roma** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.01** goals in the game and the home team **Juventus ** to win by **0.99** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Juventus** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Roma** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.34** goals in the game and the home team **Juventus ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.55 |
0-1 |
3.29 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
4.69 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.44 |

4 |
7.63 |
Un 1.5 |
3.29 |

5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.46 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.69 |

NoG |
1.69 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |