Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Lecce vs Ascoli at 05 February 2021
Frosinone vs Venezia at 06 February 2021
Salernitana vs Chievo at 06 February 2021
Pordenone vs Vicenza at 06 February 2021
Pescara vs Reggina at 06 February 2021
Cremonese vs Pisa at 06 February 2021
Cosenza vs Spal at 06 February 2021
Brescia vs Cittadella at 06 February 2021
Monza vs Empoli at 06 February 2021
Reggiana vs Virtus Entella at 07 February 2021
Lecce vs Ascoli at 05 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Lecce and Ascoli for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 05 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Lecce |
1.45 |
2.15 |
-22.5 |
|
Draw |
4.31 |
3.82 |
3.0 |
|
Ascoli |
6.82 |
3.66 |
12.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.75 |
2.16 |
-10.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.09 |
1.87 |
5.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Ascoli, Under 2.5 (3 %, 12.7 %, 5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Lecce in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lecce in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance at home.
Lecce, at home, had 3 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lecce was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Pordenone |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
24 Jan |
Empoli |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Reggina |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Monza |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Cittadella |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
27 Dec |
Vicenza |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Spal |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Pisa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
Ascoli in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ascoli in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance as a guest.
Ascoli, as a guest, had no wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 10.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Ascoli scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Brescia |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Chievo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Cittadella |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Reggina |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Dec |
Empoli |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Dec |
Spal |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
Monza |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Vicenza |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lecce and the red line for guest team, Ascoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Lecce |
20% |
39% |
22% |
18% |
|
Ascoli |
38% |
30% |
20% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lecce to score 2.06 goals and Ascoli to score 0.67 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.73 goals in the game and the home team Lecce to win by 1.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.38 goals and Ascoli to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Lecce to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.42 |
|
1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
2.07 |
|
2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.41 |
|
3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.42 |
|
5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
|
6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |
|
NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.93 |
3.70 |
4.71 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.17 |
4.07 |
3.41 |
|
4+ goals |
2.44 |
3.49 |
3.29 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.25 |
3.86 |
3.37 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.93 |
3.70 |
4.71 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
7.17 |
2.74 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.71 |
5.21 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.49 |
3.29 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.07 |
3.92 |
3.80 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.07 |
2.67 |
3.34 |
|
No Goal |
1.67 |
6.48 |
4.06 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
5.72 |
2.53 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.77 |
6.48 |
4.06 |
Go to Top
Frosinone vs Venezia at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Frosinone and Venezia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Frosinone |
2.57 |
2.49 |
1.3 |
|
Draw |
2.90 |
3.28 |
-4.0 |
|
Venezia |
3.02 |
3.41 |
-3.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.54 |
-2.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.65 |
-2.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Frosinone (1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Frosinone in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Frosinone in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance at home.
Frosinone, at home, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Frosinone scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Feb |
Pisa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Empoli |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Reggina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Jan |
Vicenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Spal |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Dec |
Pordenone |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Cittadella |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
18 Dec |
Salernitana |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Venezia in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance as a guest.
Venezia, as a guest, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Jan |
Vicenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Pordenone |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Pisa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Dec |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Dec |
Salernitana |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Cosenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Spal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Frosinone and the red line for guest team, Venezia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Frosinone |
26% |
40% |
23% |
12% |
|
Venezia |
30% |
45% |
17% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.14 goals and Venezia to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Frosinone to score 1.21 goals and Venezia to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.17 |
|
1 |
4.22 |
2-3 |
1.93 |
|
2 |
3.42 |
4+ |
5.95 |
|
3 |
4.44 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |
|
4 |
8.20 |
Un 1.5 |
3.17 |
|
5 |
27.03 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.54 |
|
6+ |
111.11 |
Un 2.5 |
1.65 |
|
Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.95 |
|
NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.62 |
4.04 |
2.69 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.49 |
2.89 |
3.98 |
|
4+ goals |
2.27 |
3.57 |
3.57 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.03 |
3.87 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.62 |
4.04 |
2.69 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
8.36 |
2.95 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.21 |
2.36 |
3.77 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.57 |
3.57 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.54 |
3.24 |
3.37 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.92 |
2.29 |
4.54 |
|
No Goal |
2.15 |
6.19 |
2.68 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
7.19 |
2.96 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.26 |
6.19 |
2.66 |
Go to Top
Salernitana vs Chievo at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Salernitana and Chievo for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Salernitana |
3.36 |
2.47 |
10.7 |
|
Draw |
3.08 |
3.44 |
-3.4 |
|
Chievo |
2.24 |
3.29 |
-14.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.38 |
-3.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.73 |
-1.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Salernitana (10.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Salernitana in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salernitana in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance at home.
Salernitana, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 23 points, 76.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
01 Feb |
Reggina |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Pescara |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Empoli |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Pordenone |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Monza |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Venezia |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
18 Dec |
Frosinone |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Chievo in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Chievo in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance as a guest.
Chievo, as a guest, had 3 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Chievo scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Chievo was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
31 Jan |
Pescara |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Jan |
Cittadella |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Ascoli |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Vicenza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Jan |
Virtus Entella |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
04 Jan |
Cremonese |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Venezia |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Pisa |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salernitana and the red line for guest team, Chievo.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Salernitana |
25% |
39% |
23% |
13% |
|
Chievo |
32% |
40% |
19% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salernitana to score 0.98 goals and Chievo to score 1.3 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the guest team Chievo to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salernitana to score 1.24 goals and Chievo to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.30 |
|
1 |
4.46 |
2-3 |
1.97 |
|
2 |
3.61 |
4+ |
5.26 |
|
3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |
|
4 |
7.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.30 |
|
5 |
21.74 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.38 |
|
6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.26 |
|
NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.48 |
3.84 |
2.97 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.44 |
3.25 |
3.55 |
|
4+ goals |
2.53 |
3.39 |
3.22 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.46 |
3.29 |
3.45 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.84 |
2.97 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
7.50 |
2.71 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.96 |
2.47 |
3.89 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.39 |
3.22 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.45 |
3.45 |
3.31 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.03 |
2.42 |
3.91 |
|
No Goal |
2.07 |
6.18 |
2.82 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
6.36 |
2.72 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
6.18 |
2.85 |
Go to Top
Pordenone vs Vicenza at 06 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Pordenone and Vicenza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Pordenone |
2.08 |
2.25 |
-3.6 |
|
Draw |
3.27 |
3.72 |
-3.7 |
|
Vicenza |
4.05 |
3.48 |
4.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.18 |
-0.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.85 |
-3.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Vicenza (4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Pordenone in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pordenone in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance at home.
Pordenone, at home, had 2 wins, 7 draws, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Lecce |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Cosenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Venezia |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Salernitana |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Reggiana |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Frosinone |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Cremonese |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
18 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Vicenza in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vicenza in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Vicenza’s performance as a guest.
Vicenza, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vicenza was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Jan |
Venezia |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Reggiana |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
15 Jan |
Frosinone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Brescia |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Lecce |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Reggina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pordenone and the red line for guest team, Vicenza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Pordenone |
22% |
37% |
24% |
16% |
|
Vicenza |
36% |
33% |
20% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.44 goals and Vicenza to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Pordenone to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pordenone to score 1.34 goals and Vicenza to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.47 |
|
1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.52 |
|
3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |
|
5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |
|
Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |
|
NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |