# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Lecce vs Ascoli at 05 February 2021**** Frosinone vs Venezia at 06 February 2021**** Salernitana vs Chievo at 06 February 2021**** Pordenone vs Vicenza at 06 February 2021**** Pescara vs Reggina at 06 February 2021**** Cremonese vs Pisa at 06 February 2021**** Cosenza vs Spal at 06 February 2021**** Brescia vs Cittadella at 06 February 2021**** Monza vs Empoli at 06 February 2021**** Reggiana vs Virtus Entella at 07 February 2021**

###
Lecce vs Ascoli at 05 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Lecce** and **Ascoli** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **05 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Lecce |
1.45 |
2.15 |
-22.5 |

Draw |
4.31 |
3.82 |
3.0 |

Ascoli |
6.82 |
3.66 |
12.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.75 |
2.16 |
-10.8 |

Under 2.5 |
2.09 |
1.87 |
5.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Ascoli, Under 2.5 (3 %, 12.7 %, 5.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Lecce** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lecce scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Lecce** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Lecce** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance** at home**.

Lecce,** at home**, had 3 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Lecce scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Lecce was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Pordenone |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Jan |
Empoli |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Reggina |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Monza |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Cittadella |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

27 Dec |
Vicenza |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Spal |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Pisa |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Ascoli** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Ascoli scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ascoli** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Ascoli scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ascoli’s performance** as a guest**.

Ascoli,** as a guest**, had no wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 10.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Ascoli scored in 6 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ascoli was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Brescia |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Chievo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Cittadella |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Reggina |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Dec |
Empoli |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Dec |
Spal |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Monza |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Vicenza |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Lecce** and the red line for guest team, **Ascoli. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Lecce |
20% |
39% |
22% |
18% |

Ascoli |
38% |
30% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Lecce** to score **2.06 ** goals and **Ascoli** to score **0.67 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.73** goals in the game and the home team **Lecce ** to win by **1.39** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Lecce** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Ascoli** to score **1.04 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Lecce ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.42 |

1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.41 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.42 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.93 |
3.70 |
4.71 |

2-3 goals |
2.17 |
4.07 |
3.41 |

4+ goals |
2.44 |
3.49 |
3.29 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.25 |
3.86 |
3.37 |

Un 1.5 |
1.93 |
3.70 |
4.71 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
7.17 |
2.74 |

Un 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.71 |
5.21 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.49 |
3.29 |

Un 3.5 |
2.07 |
3.92 |
3.80 |

Goal-Goal |
3.07 |
2.67 |
3.34 |

No Goal |
1.67 |
6.48 |
4.06 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |
5.72 |
2.53 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.77 |
6.48 |
4.06 |

####
Go to Top

###
Frosinone vs Venezia at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Frosinone** and **Venezia** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Frosinone |
2.57 |
2.49 |
1.3 |

Draw |
2.90 |
3.28 |
-4.0 |

Venezia |
3.02 |
3.41 |
-3.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.38 |
2.54 |
-2.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.65 |
-2.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Frosinone (1.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Frosinone** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Frosinone** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Frosinone’s performance** at home**.

Frosinone,** at home**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Frosinone scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Frosinone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Feb |
Pisa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Empoli |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Reggina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Jan |
Vicenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Spal |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Dec |
Pordenone |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Dec |
Cittadella |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

18 Dec |
Salernitana |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Venezia** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Venezia** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance** as a guest**.

Venezia,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Jan |
Vicenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Pordenone |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Pisa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Dec |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Dec |
Salernitana |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Cosenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Spal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Frosinone** and the red line for guest team, **Venezia. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Frosinone |
26% |
40% |
23% |
12% |

Venezia |
30% |
45% |
17% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Frosinone** to score **1.14 ** goals and **Venezia** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.15** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.12** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Frosinone** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Venezia** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.17 |

1 |
4.22 |
2-3 |
1.93 |

2 |
3.42 |
4+ |
5.95 |

3 |
4.44 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.46 |

4 |
8.20 |
Un 1.5 |
3.17 |

5 |
27.03 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.54 |

6+ |
111.11 |
Un 2.5 |
1.65 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.95 |

NoG |
2.07 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.62 |
4.04 |
2.69 |

2-3 goals |
2.49 |
2.89 |
3.98 |

4+ goals |
2.27 |
3.57 |
3.57 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.03 |
3.87 |

Un 1.5 |
2.62 |
4.04 |
2.69 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
8.36 |
2.95 |

Un 2.5 |
3.21 |
2.36 |
3.77 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.57 |
3.57 |

Un 3.5 |
2.54 |
3.24 |
3.37 |

Goal-Goal |
2.92 |
2.29 |
4.54 |

No Goal |
2.15 |
6.19 |
2.68 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
7.19 |
2.96 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.26 |
6.19 |
2.66 |

####
Go to Top

###
Salernitana vs Chievo at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Salernitana** and **Chievo** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Salernitana |
3.36 |
2.47 |
10.7 |

Draw |
3.08 |
3.44 |
-3.4 |

Chievo |
2.24 |
3.29 |
-14.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.38 |
-3.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.73 |
-1.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Salernitana (10.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Salernitana** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salernitana** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance** at home**.

Salernitana,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 23 points, 76.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

01 Feb |
Reggina |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Pescara |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Empoli |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Jan |
Pordenone |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Monza |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Dec |
Venezia |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Frosinone |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Chievo** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Chievo** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Chievo’s performance** as a guest**.

Chievo,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 6 draws, one defeat and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Chievo scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Chievo was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

31 Jan |
Pescara |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Cittadella |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Ascoli |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Vicenza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Jan |
Virtus Entella |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

04 Jan |
Cremonese |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Venezia |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Dec |
Pisa |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Salernitana** and the red line for guest team, **Chievo. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Salernitana |
25% |
39% |
23% |
13% |

Chievo |
32% |
40% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Salernitana** to score **0.98 ** goals and **Chievo** to score **1.3 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.29** goals in the game and the guest team **Chievo ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Salernitana** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Chievo** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.30 |

1 |
4.46 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.61 |
4+ |
5.26 |

3 |
4.35 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.58 |
Un 1.5 |
3.30 |

5 |
21.74 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.38 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.26 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.23 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.48 |
3.84 |
2.97 |

2-3 goals |
2.44 |
3.25 |
3.55 |

4+ goals |
2.53 |
3.39 |
3.22 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.46 |
3.29 |
3.45 |

Un 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.84 |
2.97 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
7.50 |
2.71 |

Un 2.5 |
2.96 |
2.47 |
3.89 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.39 |
3.22 |

Un 3.5 |
2.45 |
3.45 |
3.31 |

Goal-Goal |
3.03 |
2.42 |
3.91 |

No Goal |
2.07 |
6.18 |
2.82 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
6.36 |
2.72 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
6.18 |
2.85 |

####
Go to Top

###
Pordenone vs Vicenza at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Pordenone** and **Vicenza** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **06 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Pordenone |
2.08 |
2.25 |
-3.6 |

Draw |
3.27 |
3.72 |
-3.7 |

Vicenza |
4.05 |
3.48 |
4.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.18 |
-0.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.85 |
-3.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Vicenza (4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Pordenone** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pordenone** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance** at home**.

Pordenone,** at home**, had 2 wins, 7 draws, one defeat and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Pordenone scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Lecce |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Jan |
Cosenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Venezia |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Salernitana |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Reggiana |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Dec |
Frosinone |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Dec |
Cremonese |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Vicenza** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Vicenza** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vicenza’s performance** as a guest**.

Vicenza,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Vicenza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

29 Jan |
Venezia |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Reggiana |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Jan |
Frosinone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Brescia |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

30 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Lecce |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Reggina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Pordenone** and the red line for guest team, **Vicenza. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Pordenone |
22% |
37% |
24% |
16% |

Vicenza |
36% |
33% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Pordenone** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Vicenza** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.35** goals in the game and the home team **Pordenone ** to win by **0.53** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Pordenone** to score **1.34 ** goals and **Vicenza** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.47 |

1 |
4.81 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.95 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
4.22 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.47 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |