2021 02 05 Super League (Greece)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Atromitos vs Panathinaikos at 06 February 2021
Lamia vs Larisa at 06 February 2021
AEK vs Aris at 07 February 2021
PAOK vs Apollon at 07 February 2021
Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis at 07 February 2021
Panetolikos vs Giannina at 08 February 2021


Atromitos vs Panathinaikos at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Atromitos and Panathinaikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Atromitos

3.30

2.70

6.7

Draw

3.13

3.57

-3.9

Panathinaikos

2.20

2.87

-10.6

Over 2.5

2.33

2.43

-1.8

Under 2.5

1.60

1.70

-3.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Atromitos (6.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Atromitos in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atromitos in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance at home.
Atromitos, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Giannina

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Jan

Panetolikos

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Olympiakos

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

AEK

A

1

2

L

O

G

14 Jan

Lamia

H

2

1

W

O

G

10 Jan

OFI Crete

H

0

0

D

U

N

07 Jan

PAOK

H

3

2

W

O

G

04 Jan

Volos NFC

A

0

1

L

U

N


Panathinaikos in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 5 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Panathinaikos in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 2 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Panathinaikos’s performance as a guest.
Panathinaikos, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Panathinaikos scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panathinaikos was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Lamia

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Jan

Volos NFC

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

OFI Crete

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Aris

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Larisa

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Apollon

A

1

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Asteras Tripolis

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Dec

PAOK

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Atromitos and the red line for guest team, Panathinaikos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Atromitos

36%

28%

24%

12%

Panathinaikos

35%

33%

18%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Atromitos to score 0.94 goals and Panathinaikos to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and the guest team Panathinaikos to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Atromitos to score 1.13 goals and Panathinaikos to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.22 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.94

0-1

2.90

1

4.57

2-3

2.15

2

4.08

4+

5.24

3

4.52

Ov 1.5

1.52

4

8.26

Un 1.5

2.90

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.43

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.40

Ov 3.5

5.24

NoG

1.71

Un 3.5

1.23

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.45

2.74

2.90

2-3 goals

2.24

4.96

2.84

4+ goals

2.98

3.18

2.85

Ov 1.5

2.42

4.27

2.84

Un 1.5

3.45

2.74

2.90

Ov 2.5

2.20

6.87

2.50

Un 2.5

3.19

2.68

3.19

Ov 3.5

2.98

3.18

2.85

Un 3.5

2.63

3.69

2.87

Goal-Goal

2.90

2.71

3.50

No Goal

2.57

4.64

2.53

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.24

5.38

2.71

NG+Un 2.5

2.68

4.64

2.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Lamia vs Larisa at 06 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lamia and Larisa for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 06 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lamia

2.08

2.21

-2.8

Draw

3.18

3.56

-3.4

Larisa

3.82

3.75

0.5

Over 2.5

2.69

2.53

2.4

Under 2.5

1.48

1.65

-7.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Larisa, Over 2.5 (0.5 %, 2.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lamia in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lamia in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 1 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance at home.
Lamia, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 26.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lamia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Panathinaikos

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Jan

Apollon

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Panetolikos

A

0

0

D

U

N

17 Jan

Volos NFC

A

1

1

D

U

G

14 Jan

Atromitos

A

1

2

L

O

G

11 Jan

AEK

H

0

1

L

U

N

07 Jan

OFI Crete

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Jan

Aris

H

2

0

W

U

N


Larisa in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa didn’t score to any of them. and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Larisa in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Larisa’s performance as a guest.
Larisa, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Larisa scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Larisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Volos NFC

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Jan

Aris

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Asteras Tripolis

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Apollon

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Panathinaikos

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Jan

Giannina

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Jan

PAOK

H

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Olympiakos

A

1

5

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lamia and the red line for guest team, Larisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lamia

32%

29%

21%

18%

Larisa

43%

33%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lamia to score 1.21 goals and Larisa to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2 goals in the game and the home team Lamia to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lamia to score 1.25 goals and Larisa to score 0.89 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and the home team Lamia to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.30

0-1

2.72

1

4.35

2-3

2.19

2

4.20

4+

5.68

3

4.57

Ov 1.5

1.58

4

8.55

Un 1.5

2.72

5

22.22

Ov 2.5

2.53

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.65

Gg

2.57

Ov 3.5

5.68

NoG

1.64

Un 3.5

1.21

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.96

2.68

3.46

2-3 goals

1.90

4.71

3.81

4+ goals

1.98

3.74

4.40

Ov 1.5

1.92

4.40

3.96

Un 1.5

2.96

2.68

3.46

Ov 2.5

1.66

8.40

3.59

Un 2.5

2.81

2.59

3.88

Ov 3.5

1.98

3.74

4.40

Un 3.5

2.26

3.52

3.65

Goal-Goal

2.43

2.70

4.58

No Goal

2.09

4.46

3.38

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.83

6.21

3.44

NG+Un 2.5

2.36

4.46

3.26


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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AEK vs Aris at 07 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AEK and Aris for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 07 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

AEK

1.99

2.72

-13.5

Draw

3.27

3.48

-1.8

Aris

3.65

2.89

7.2

Over 2.5

2.24

2.45

-3.8

Under 2.5

1.62

1.69

-2.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Aris (7.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

AEK in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, AEK in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at AEK’s performance at home.
AEK, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, AEK scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of AEK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

OFI Crete

A

2

0

W

U

N

27 Jan

Giannina

H

0

2

L

U

N

24 Jan

PAOK

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Jan

Atromitos

H

2

1

W

O

G

14 Jan

Aris

A

1

0

W

U

N

11 Jan

Lamia

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Panetolikos

H

1

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Olympiakos

A

0

3

L

O

N


Aris in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aris in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aris’s performance as a guest.
Aris, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aris was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Asteras Tripolis

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Jan

Larisa

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Apollon

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Panathinaikos

H

0

1

L

U

N

14 Jan

AEK

H

0

1

L

U

N

11 Jan

Giannina

A

0

0

D

U

N

07 Jan

Volos NFC

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Jan

Lamia

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, AEK and the red line for guest team, Aris.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

AEK

29%

39%

21%

11%

Aris

33%

33%

24%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) AEK to score 1.35 goals and Aris to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team AEK to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) AEK to score 1.14 goals and Aris to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.31

0-1

3.11

1

4.44

2-3

2.01

2

3.70

4+

5.56

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

8.06

Un 1.5

3.11

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.45

6+

100.00

Un 2.5

1.69

Gg

2.12

Ov 3.5

5.56

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.32

3.32

2-3 goals

2.80

3.89

2.59

4+ goals

2.95

2.90

3.16

Ov 1.5

2.84

3.57

2.72

Un 1.5

2.52

3.32

3.32

Ov 2.5

2.43

6.58

2.29

Un 2.5

2.97

2.63

3.52

Ov 3.5

2.95

2.90

3.16

Un 3.5

2.68

3.64

2.84

Goal-Goal

3.58

2.48

3.15

No Goal

2.25

5.44

2.69

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.61

5.55

2.29

NG+Un 2.5

2.33

5.44

2.76


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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PAOK vs Apollon at 07 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between PAOK and Apollon for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 07 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

PAOK

1.32

1.90

-23.1

Draw

5.20

3.66

8.1

Apollon

7.67

4.98

7.0

Over 2.5

1.54

2.65

-27.2

Under 2.5

2.37

1.61

19.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Apollon, Under 2.5 (8.1 %, 7 %, 19.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

PAOK in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PAOK in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at PAOK’s performance at home.
PAOK, at home, had 7 wins, 3 draws, no defeats and gathered 24 points, 80.0% of the total available.
In these matches, PAOK scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PAOK was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Panetolikos

H

5

0

W

O

N

27 Jan

Olympiakos

A

0

3

L

O

N

24 Jan

AEK

H

2

2

D

O

G

17 Jan

OFI Crete

A

3

0

W

O

N

13 Jan

Olympiakos

H

1

1

D

U

G

10 Jan

Volos NFC

H

3

1

W

O

G

07 Jan

Atromitos

A

2

3

L

O

G

03 Jan

Larisa

A

1

1

D

U

G


Apollon in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance as a guest.
Apollon, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Olympiakos

H

1

3

L

O

G

27 Jan

Lamia

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Aris

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Larisa

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Asteras Tripolis

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Jan

Panathinaikos

H

0

1

L

U

N

03 Jan

Giannina

A

3

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Panetolikos

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, PAOK and the red line for guest team, Apollon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

PAOK

23%

38%

20%

19%

Apollon

47%

33%

16%

3%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) PAOK to score 2.39 goals and Apollon to score 0.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.03 goals in the game and the home team PAOK to win by 1.76 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) PAOK to score 1.36 goals and Apollon to score 0.76 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.12 goals in the game and the home team PAOK to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.43

0-1

2.77

1

3.92

2-3

2.06

2

3.85

4+

6.58

3

4.44

Ov 1.5

1.57

4

9.26

Un 1.5

2.77

5

26.32

Ov 2.5

2.65

6+

166.67

Un 2.5

1.61

Gg

2.44

Ov 3.5

6.58

NoG

1.70

Un 3.5

1.18

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.01

3.41

4.81

2-3 goals

1.93