2021 02 06 Greek Basket League



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Aris vs GS Lavrio at 06 February 2021
Promitheas vs Larissa BC at 06 February 2021
Ionikos Nikaias vs Mesologgi BC at 06 February 2021
Kolossos Rhodes vs Iraklis at 06 February 2021
AEK Athens vs Peristeri at 06 February 2021
PAOK vs Panathinaikos at 07 February 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Aris vs GS Lavrio at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and GS Lavrio for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Aris

2.55

1.53

GS Lavrio

1.53

2.89

Aris HC

+3.5

-5.00

GS Lavrio HC

-3.5

5.00

Point Line

153.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Aris are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 23

H

Messolonghi

W

77

48

4

8

W 1

75

51

Jan 17

H

Panathinaikos

L

75

93

3

8

L 5

81

82

Jan 9

H

Peristeri

L

71

84

3

7

L 4

73

86

Jan 3

A

Ionikos Nikaias

L

64

68

3

6

L 3

60

69

Dec 26

H

Kolossos Rodou

L

74

84

3

5

L 2

74

83

Dec 20

A

AEK Athens

L

67

84

3

4

L 1

72

80

Dec 16

A

Larisa

W

88

84

3

3

W 1

83

84

Dec 13

A

P.A.O.K.

L

64

75

2

3

L 2

60

74

The latest results and the adjusted scores of GS Lavrio are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 30

H

P.A.O.K.

W

84

77

9

4

W 1

79

76

Jan 23

A

Promitheas Patras

L

88

90

8

4

L 1

86

94

Jan 20

H

Promitheas Patras

W

75

72

8

3

W 8

74

75

Jan 11

A

Larisa

W

66

58

7

3

W 7

62

58

Jan 3

H

Panathinaikos

W

92

82

6

3

W 6

100

72

Dec 27

H

AEK Athens

W

78

70

5

3

W 5

84

67

Dec 19

A

Iraklis B.C.

W

77

60

4

3

W 4

78

64

Dec 12

H

Messolonghi

W

87

70

3

3

W 3

85

74

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Aris and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by GS Lavrio.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by GS Lavrio and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Aris.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Aris (in the first graph) and by GS Lavrio in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Aris will expected to score 75 points and the GS Lavrio 79 points. The total points line estimated to be at 154.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Aris

GS Lavrio

FG%

0.52

0.54

ASS

13.20

17.20

DRB

21.40

21.10

AST-TO

0.99

1.29

TRB

30.20

28.50

FTM

16.90

14.40

BL

1.90

2.30

FTA

22.60

20.30

PF-Fewer

21.30

22.50

ST

8.30

8.00

TO-Fewer

13.30

13.30

Ftper

0.75

0.71

ORBper

0.41

0.35

ORB

8.80

7.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Promitheas vs Larissa BC at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Promitheas and Larissa BC for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Promitheas

1.12

1.74

Larissa BC

6.5

2.35

Promitheas HC

-12.5

-3.00

Larissa BC HC

+12.5

3.00

Point Line

158.5

150.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Promitheas are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 31

A

Panathinaikos

W

80

78

8

4

W 2

87

69

Jan 23

H

Lavrio B.C.

W

90

88

7

4

W 1

94

85

Jan 20

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

72

75

6

4

L 1

75

72

Jan 16

A

AEK Athens

W

82

75

6

3

W 2

88

72

Jan 10

H

Iraklis B.C.

W

85

61

5

3

W 1

86

65

Jan 6

A

Larisa

L

81

85

4

3

L 1

76

85

Jan 3

A

Messolonghi

W

88

82

4

2

W 2

86

86

Dec 26

H

Peristeri

W

75

58

3

2

W 1

77

60

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Larissa BC are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 30

H

AEK Athens

W

76

75

4

9

W 1

81

72

Jan 24

H

Panathinaikos

L

89

98

3

9

L 2

96

86

Jan 11

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

58

66

3

8

L 1

60

64

Jan 6

H

Promitheas Patras

W

85

81

3

7

W 1

84

84

Jan 2

A

Iraklis B.C.

L

69

73

2

7

L 1

70

78

Dec 27

H

Messolonghi

W

84

58

2

6

W 1

82

61

Dec 19

A

Peristeri

L

78

82

1

6

L 3

80

84

Dec 16

H

Aris

L

84

88

1

5

L 2

81

90

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Promitheas and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Larissa BC.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Larissa BC and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Promitheas.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Promitheas (in the first graph) and by Larissa BC in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Promitheas will expected to score 81 points and the Larissa BC 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Promitheas

Larissa BC

FG%

0.53

0.55

ASS

16.20

13.90

DRB

22.20

22.40

AST-TO

1.22

0.88

TRB

28.30

31.30

FTM

14.60

13.00

BL

3.50

1.60

FTA

20.80

17.50

PF-Fewer

18.50

22.20

ST

7.20

6.30

TO-Fewer

13.30

15.80

Ftper

0.70

0.74

ORBper

0.27

0.40

ORB

6.10

8.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Ionikos Nikaias vs Mesologgi BC at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Ionikos Nikaias and Mesologgi BC for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Ionikos Nikaias

1.37

2.14

Mesologgi BC

3.15

1.88

Ionikos Nikaias HC

-5.5

2.00

Mesologgi BC HC

+5.5

-2.00

Point Line

154.5

152.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Ionikos Nikaias are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 30

A

Peristeri

L

70

86

4

9

L 3

72

88

Jan 23

A

AEK Athens

L

74

81

4

8

L 2

79

78

Jan 9

A

Kolossos Rodou

L

74

94

4

7

L 1

74

92

Jan 3

H

Aris

W

68

64

4

6

W 1

66

65

Dec 27

A

P.A.O.K.

L

84

86

3

6

L 1

79

84

Dec 19

H

Promitheas Patras

W

86

77

3

5

W 2

84

80

Dec 12

A

Larisa

W

97

76

2

5

W 1

91

76

Dec 6

H

Panathinaikos

L

53

79

1

5

L 1

57

70

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Mesologgi BC are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 30

H

Kolossos Rodou

W

87

77

4

9

W 1

87

76

Jan 23

A

Aris

L

48

77

3

9

L 9

46

78

Jan 9

A

P.A.O.K.

L

87

96

3

8

L 8

82

94

Jan 3

H

Promitheas Patras

L

82

88

3

7

L 7

80

92

Dec 27

A

Larisa

L

58

84

3

6

L 6

55

84

Dec 20

H

Panathinaikos

L

66

73

3

5

L 5

71

64

Dec 12

A

Lavrio B.C.

L

70

87

3

4

L 4

73

84

Dec 5

H

Iraklis B.C.

L

68

71

3

3

L 3

69

76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Ionikos Nikaias and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Mesologgi BC.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Mesologgi BC and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Ionikos Nikaias.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Ionikos Nikaias (in the first graph) and by Mesologgi BC in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Ionikos Nikaias will expected to score 77 points and the Mesologgi BC 76 points. The total points line estimated to be at 153.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Ionikos Nikaias

Mesologgi BC

FG%

0.50

0.52

ASS

14.50

15.20

DRB

21.80

23.10

AST-TO

1.04

1.02

TRB

30.50

29.50

FTM

11.80

14.20

BL

1.40

1.50

FTA

15.80

19.70

PF-Fewer

20.80

19.20

ST

7.60

5.70

TO-Fewer

13.90

14.90

Ftper

0.75

0.72

ORBper

0.40

0.28

ORB

8.70

6.50


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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Kolossos Rhodes vs Iraklis at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Kolossos Rhodes and Iraklis for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Kolossos Rhodes

1.47

1.65

Iraklis

2.7

2.55

Kolossos Rhodes HC

-4.5

-3.50

Iraklis HC

+4.5

3.50

Point Line

151.5

148.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Kolossos Rhodes are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 30

A

Messolonghi

L

77

87

5

8

L 1

75

92

Jan 23

H

Peristeri

W

80

65

5

7

W 2

82

67

Jan 9

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

94

74

4

7

W 1

89

75

Jan 2

A

AEK Athens

L

72

89

3

7

L 1

77

85

Dec 26

A

Aris

W

84

74

3

6

W 1

81

75

Dec 19

H

P.A.O.K.

L

84

85

2

6

L 2

79

84

Dec 13

A

Promitheas Patras

L

67

69

2

5

L 1

66

72

Dec 5

H

Larisa

W

90

64

2

4

W 1

85

64

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Iraklis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 23

A

P.A.O.K.

L

72

79

5

7

L 2

68

78

Jan 10

A

Promitheas Patras

L

61

85

5

6

L 1

60

89

Jan 2

H

Larisa

W

73

69

5

5

W 1

69

69

Dec 27

A

Panathinaikos

L

74

106

4

5

L 3

80

94

Dec 19

H

Lavrio B.C.

L

60

77

4

4

L 2

62

74

Dec 12

H

AEK Athens

L

72

79

4

3

L 1

77

76

Dec 5

A

Messolonghi

W

71

68

4

2

W 1

69

72

Nov 22

H

Peristeri

L

71

75

3

2

L 1

73

77

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Kolossos Rhodes and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Iraklis.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Iraklis and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Kolossos Rhodes.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Kolossos Rhodes (in the first graph) and by Iraklis in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Kolossos Rhodes will expected to score 76 points and the Iraklis 73 points. The total points line estimated to be at 149.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Kolossos Rhodes

Iraklis

FG%

0.54

0.50

ASS

16.90

14.10

DRB

25.10

24.40

AST-TO

1.19

1.02

TRB

31.50

32.00

FTM

13.70

13.30

BL

1.40

2.30

FTA

18.70

18.40

PF-Fewer

22.90

21.80

ST

5.90

5.40

TO-Fewer

14.20

13.80

Ftper

0.73

0.72

ORBper

0.26

0.31

ORB

6.50

7.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


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AEK Athens vs Peristeri at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between AEK Athens and Peristeri for Greek Basket League, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

AEK Athens

1.41

1.40

Peristeri

3.39

3.48

AEK Athens HC

-5.5

-6.00

Peristeri HC

+5.5

6.00

Point Line

148.5

146.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of AEK Athens are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 30

A

Larisa

L

75

76

10

4

L 1

71

76

Jan 27

H

P.A.O.K.

W

76

56

10

3

W 2

72

55

Jan 23

H

Ionikos Nikaias

W

81

74

9

3

W 1

77

75

Jan 16

H

Promitheas Patras

L

75

82

8

3

L 2

74

85