2021 02 06 Italy’s Lega Basket Serie A



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Fortitudo Bologna vs Sassari at 06 February 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Fortitudo Bologna vs Sassari at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Fortitudo Bologna and Sassari for Serie A, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Fortitudo Bologna

3.2

2.33

Sassari

1.36

1.75

Fortitudo Bologna HC

+6.5

3.00

Sassari HC

-6.5

-3.00

Point Line

167.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Fortitudo Bologna are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 31

A

Dolomiti Energia Trentino

W

78

64

6

10

W 1

79

66

Jan 10

H

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

L

69

82

5

10

L 1

71

81

Jan 2

A

Red October Cantu

W

80

67

5

9

W 3

79

68

Dec 27

H

Umana Reyer Venezia

W

76

72

4

9

W 2

82

72

Dec 20

H

Vanoli Cremona

W

85

71

3

9

W 1

80

68

Dec 16

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

L

69

79

2

9

L 1

70

83

Dec 12

A

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

78

70

2

8

W 1

78

78

Dec 5

A

Germani Basket Brescia

L

85

99

1

8

L 6

83

98

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Sassari are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 24

A

Alma Pallacanestro Trieste

W

103

82

12

5

W 6

106

81

Jan 17

H

Consultinvest Pesaro

W

99

74

11

5

W 5

99

82

Jan 10

H

Red October Cantu

W

98

92

10

5

W 4

97

93

Jan 3

A

Grissin Bon Reggio Emilia

W

85

78

9

5

W 3

86

82

Dec 27

H

Germani Basket Brescia

W

100

87

8

5

W 2

98

86

Dec 23

A

Vanoli Cremona

W

95

75

7

5

W 1

89

72

Dec 20

A

EA7 Emporio Armani Milano

L

86

102

6

5

L 1

94

91

Dec 13

H

Universo Treviso

W

97

93

6

4

W 2

89

88

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Fortitudo Bologna and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Sassari.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Sassari and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Fortitudo Bologna.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Fortitudo Bologna (in the first graph) and by Sassari in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Fortitudo Bologna will expected to score 82 points and the Sassari 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 168.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Fortitudo Bologna

Sassari

FG%

0.51

0.59

ASS

17.10

19.10

DRB

24.40

25.60

AST-TO

1.39

1.35

TRB

32.90

33.40

FTM

12.80

17.60

BL

3.50

1.90

FTA

17.90

22.90

PF-Fewer

18.30

18.60

ST

7.80

7.80

TO-Fewer

12.30

14.10

Ftper

0.71

0.77

ORBper

0.34

0.30

ORB

8.40

7.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top



Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *