2021 02 06 Spain’s Liga ACB

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Gran Canaria vs Manresa at 06 February 2021
Bilbao vs Barcelona at 06 February 2021
Valencia vs Real Betis at 06 February 2021
Zaragoza vs Obradoiro at 06 February 2021
Murcia vs Joventut Badalona at 07 February 2021
Tenerife vs Baskonia at 07 February 2021
Estudiantes vs Real Madrid at 07 February 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Unicaja Malaga at 07 February 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Gran Canaria vs Manresa at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gran Canaria and Manresa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Gran Canaria	1.47	3.03
Manresa	2.7	1.49
Gran Canaria HC	-4.5	5.00
Manresa HC	+4.5	-5.00
Point Line	165.5	161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gran Canaria are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 31	A	Real Madrid	L	80	81	7	14	L 3	86	76
Jan 23	A	Montakit Fuenlabrada	L	81	102	7	13	L 2	80	102
Jan 16	H	Iberostar Tenerife	L	87	108	7	12	L 1	90	100
Jan 10	H	Divina Seguros Joventut	W	96	85	7	11	W 1	94	83
Jan 2	A	Valencia Basket	L	85	101	6	11	L 1	88	96
Dec 27	A	Manresa	W	71	64	6	10	W 4	69	64
Dec 22	H	Coosur Real Betis	W	78	54	5	10	W 3	76	58
Dec 19	A	Acunsa GBC	W	79	65	4	10	W 2	74	72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 31	H	San Pablo Burgos	L	87	101	10	11	L 1	90	93
Jan 26	A	UCAM Murcia	W	103	93	10	10	W 1	100	94
Jan 24	A	Iberostar Tenerife	L	70	85	9	10	L 1	72	78
Jan 16	H	Unicaja	W	90	83	9	9	W 1	89	80
Jan 9	H	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	76	99	8	9	L 1	84	93
Dec 29	A	Acunsa GBC	W	78	71	8	8	W 1	73	79
Dec 27	H	Herbalife Gran Canaria	L	64	71	7	8	L 2	62	75
Dec 19	A	San Pablo Burgos	L	80	91	7	7	L 1	82	84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gran Canaria and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gran Canaria.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gran Canaria (in the first graph) and by Manresa in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gran Canaria will expected to score 81 points and the Manresa 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Gran Canaria	Manresa
FG%	0.52	0.56
ASS	15.10	15.30
DRB	20.40	22.00
AST-TO	1.23	1.06
TRB	29.00	29.70
FTM	11.50	17.00
BL	2.50	3.20
FTA	16.00	22.30
PF-Fewer	19.20	20.80
ST	7.40	9.10
TO-Fewer	12.30	14.40
Ftper	0.72	0.76
ORBper	0.42	0.35
ORB	8.60	7.80

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Bilbao vs Barcelona at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bilbao and Barcelona for Liga ACB, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Bilbao	7	3.23
Barcelona	1.1	1.45
Bilbao HC	+13.5	5.50
Barcelona HC	-13.5	-5.50
Point Line	156.5	160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 30	A	Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro	L	72	80	4	17	L 4	71	82
Jan 23	H	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	L	73	96	4	16	L 3	68	98
Jan 17	A	MoraBanc Andorra	L	70	72	4	15	L 2	72	75
Jan 9	H	Valencia Basket	L	73	106	4	14	L 1	75	100
Jan 2	H	Acunsa GBC	W	81	80	4	13	W 1	76	89
Dec 29	A	San Pablo Burgos	L	86	96	3	13	L 2	88	89
Dec 27	H	Unicaja	L	75	91	3	12	L 1	74	87
Dec 20	A	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	74	70	3	11	W 1	73	70

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 31	H	UCAM Murcia	W	92	63	17	3	W 8	90	63
Jan 24	A	Acunsa GBC	W	110	68	16	3	W 7	103	76
Jan 9	A	Manresa	W	99	76	15	3	W 6	96	76
Jan 3	A	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	83	67	14	3	W 5	82	67
Dec 27	A	Real Madrid	W	87	82	13	3	W 4	93	78
Dec 20	H	Divina Seguros Joventut	W	88	74	12	3	W 3	86	72
Dec 13	A	Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro	W	78	75	11	3	W 2	77	77
Dec 6	H	Herbalife Gran Canaria	W	91	63	10	3	W 1	89	66

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bilbao and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bilbao.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bilbao (in the first graph) and by Barcelona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bilbao will expected to score 75 points and the Barcelona 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Var	Bilbao	Barcelona
FG%	0.52	0.48
ASS	14.90	15.70
DRB	20.90	18.90
AST-TO	1.03	1.15
TRB	29.40	28.30
FTM	13.40	13.50
BL	2.20	2.50
FTA	17.40	18.00
PF-Fewer	21.60	20.70
ST	6.00	8.30
TO-Fewer	14.50	13.70
Ftper	0.77	0.75
ORBper	0.41	0.50
ORB	8.60	9.40

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Valencia vs Real Betis at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Real Betis for Liga ACB, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Valencia	1.13	1.65
Real Betis	6.25	2.53
Valencia HC	-11.5	-3.50
Real Betis HC	+11.5	3.50
Point Line	163.5	159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 31	A	Unicaja	W	89	85	15	6	W 11	88	81
Jan 24	H	Baskonia	W	83	61	14	6	W 10	89	60
Jan 17	A	San Pablo Burgos	W	83	78	13	6	W 9	85	72
Jan 9	A	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	106	73	12	6	W 8	100	76
Jan 4	A	Divina Seguros Joventut	W	91	80	11	6	W 7	89	78
Jan 2	H	Herbalife Gran Canaria	W	101	85	10	6	W 6	98	90
Dec 27	H	Acunsa GBC	W	101	75	9	6	W 5	95	83
Dec 20	H	UCAM Murcia	W	89	78	8	6	W 4	87	78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 23	H	Unicaja	W	78	75	5	15	W 1	77	72
Jan 17	A	Baskonia	L	76	103	4	15	L 3	81	102
Jan 9	H	San Pablo Burgos	L	76	85	4	14	L 2	78	79
Jan 2	A	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	L	95	96	4	13	L 1	88	98
Dec 29	A	Unicaja	W	114	111	4	12	W 2	112	106
Dec 27	H	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	86	79	3	12	W 1	85	79
Dec 22	A	Herbalife Gran Canaria	L	54	78	2	12	L 6	53	82
Dec 12	H	Baskonia	L	73	77	2	11	L 5	78	76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Betis.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Betis and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Valencia (in the first graph) and by Real Betis in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Valencia will expected to score 85 points and the Real Betis 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Var	Valencia	Real Betis
FG%	0.59	0.49
ASS	19.50	13.50
DRB	22.60	19.90
AST-TO	1.50	0.97
TRB	29.70	30.50
FTM	14.90	14.70
BL	1.60	2.70
FTA	18.00	20.30
PF-Fewer	16.50	20.40
ST	6.60	8.60
TO-Fewer	13.00	13.90
Ftper	0.83	0.72
ORBper	0.31	0.53
ORB	7.10	10.60

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Zaragoza vs Obradoiro at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Obradoiro for Liga ACB, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Zaragoza	1.36	1.52
Obradoiro	3.2	2.94
Zaragoza HC	-5.5	-5.00
Obradoiro HC	+5.5	5.00
Point Line	170.5	165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Feb 3	A	Movistar Estudiantes	W	79	73	8	13	W 1	77	76
Jan 31	A	Baskonia	L	61	89	7	13	L 1	65	88
Jan 23	A	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	96	73	7	12	W 3	90	76
Jan 16	H	Montakit Fuenlabrada	W	105	85	6	12	W 2	103	85
Jan 2	H	Coosur Real Betis	W	96	95	5	12	W 1	94	102
Dec 27	H	Baskonia	L	89	92	4	12	L 2	95	91
Dec 20	A	Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro	L	91	102	4	11	L 1	89	104
Dec 13	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	105	76	4	10	W 2	99	80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Obradoiro are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 30	H	RETAbet Bilbao Basket	W	80	72	7	10	W 1	75	75
Dec 27	A	UCAM Murcia	L	76	93	6	10	L 1	74	94
Dec 20	H	Tecnyconta Zaragoza	W	102	91	6	9	W 1	95	93
Dec 17	H	Divina Seguros Joventut	L	83	87	5	9	L 7	81	85
Dec 13	H	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	75	78	5	8	L 6	83	73
Dec 5	A	Iberostar Tenerife	L	62	107	5	7	L 5	64	99
Nov 21	H	San Pablo Burgos	L	63	78	5	6	L 4	65	72
Nov 15	A	Baskonia	L	74	80	5	5	L 3	79	79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Obradoiro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Obradoiro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zaragoza (in the first graph) and by Obradoiro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zaragoza will expected to score 85 points and the Obradoiro 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 169.5 points.

Var	Zaragoza	Obradoiro
FG%	0.54	0.56
ASS	16.10	15.40
DRB	23.00	20.20
AST-TO	1.23	1.11
TRB	30.30	29.20
FTM	14.50	13.60
BL	2.60	2.20
FTA	20.20	17.30
PF-Fewer	20.50	19.50
ST	6.70	6.20
TO-Fewer	13.10	13.90
Ftper	0.72	0.79
ORBper	0.32	0.44
ORB	7.30	8.90

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Murcia vs Joventut Badalona at 07 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Murcia and Joventut Badalona for Liga ACB, which will take place on 07 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Murcia	2.05	2.40
Joventut Badalona	1.78	1.71
Murcia HC	+1.5	3.00
Joventut Badalona HC	-1.5	-3.00
Point Line	172.5	164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Murcia are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Feb 2	A	Real Madrid	L	87	98	8	12	L 4	93	93
Jan 31	A	FC Barcelona Lassa	L	63	92	8	11	L 3	70	87
Jan 26	H	Manresa	L	93	103	8	10	L 2	90	102
Jan 23	H	San Pablo Burgos	L	75	81	8	9	L 1	77