2021 02 06 Spain’s Liga ACB



BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Gran Canaria vs Manresa at 06 February 2021
Bilbao vs Barcelona at 06 February 2021
Valencia vs Real Betis at 06 February 2021
Zaragoza vs Obradoiro at 06 February 2021
Murcia vs Joventut Badalona at 07 February 2021
Tenerife vs Baskonia at 07 February 2021
Estudiantes vs Real Madrid at 07 February 2021
Fuenlabrada vs Unicaja Malaga at 07 February 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.



Gran Canaria vs Manresa at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gran Canaria and Manresa for Liga ACB, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Gran Canaria

1.47

3.03

Manresa

2.7

1.49

Gran Canaria HC

-4.5

5.00

Manresa HC

+4.5

-5.00

Point Line

165.5

161.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gran Canaria are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 31

A

Real Madrid

L

80

81

7

14

L 3

86

76

Jan 23

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

L

81

102

7

13

L 2

80

102

Jan 16

H

Iberostar Tenerife

L

87

108

7

12

L 1

90

100

Jan 10

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

96

85

7

11

W 1

94

83

Jan 2

A

Valencia Basket

L

85

101

6

11

L 1

88

96

Dec 27

A

Manresa

W

71

64

6

10

W 4

69

64

Dec 22

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

78

54

5

10

W 3

76

58

Dec 19

A

Acunsa GBC

W

79

65

4

10

W 2

74

72

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Manresa are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 31

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

87

101

10

11

L 1

90

93

Jan 26

A

UCAM Murcia

W

103

93

10

10

W 1

100

94

Jan 24

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

70

85

9

10

L 1

72

78

Jan 16

H

Unicaja

W

90

83

9

9

W 1

89

80

Jan 9

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

76

99

8

9

L 1

84

93

Dec 29

A

Acunsa GBC

W

78

71

8

8

W 1

73

79

Dec 27

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

64

71

7

8

L 2

62

75

Dec 19

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

80

91

7

7

L 1

82

84

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gran Canaria and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Manresa.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Manresa and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gran Canaria.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gran Canaria (in the first graph) and by Manresa in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gran Canaria will expected to score 81 points and the Manresa 83 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Gran Canaria

Manresa

FG%

0.52

0.56

ASS

15.10

15.30

DRB

20.40

22.00

AST-TO

1.23

1.06

TRB

29.00

29.70

FTM

11.50

17.00

BL

2.50

3.20

FTA

16.00

22.30

PF-Fewer

19.20

20.80

ST

7.40

9.10

TO-Fewer

12.30

14.40

Ftper

0.72

0.76

ORBper

0.42

0.35

ORB

8.60

7.80


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Bilbao vs Barcelona at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bilbao and Barcelona for Liga ACB, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Bilbao

7

3.23

Barcelona

1.1

1.45

Bilbao HC

+13.5

5.50

Barcelona HC

-13.5

-5.50

Point Line

156.5

160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bilbao are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 30

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

72

80

4

17

L 4

71

82

Jan 23

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

73

96

4

16

L 3

68

98

Jan 17

A

MoraBanc Andorra

L

70

72

4

15

L 2

72

75

Jan 9

H

Valencia Basket

L

73

106

4

14

L 1

75

100

Jan 2

H

Acunsa GBC

W

81

80

4

13

W 1

76

89

Dec 29

A

San Pablo Burgos

L

86

96

3

13

L 2

88

89

Dec 27

H

Unicaja

L

75

91

3

12

L 1

74

87

Dec 20

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

74

70

3

11

W 1

73

70

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Barcelona are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 31

H

UCAM Murcia

W

92

63

17

3

W 8

90

63

Jan 24

A

Acunsa GBC

W

110

68

16

3

W 7

103

76

Jan 9

A

Manresa

W

99

76

15

3

W 6

96

76

Jan 3

A

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

83

67

14

3

W 5

82

67

Dec 27

A

Real Madrid

W

87

82

13

3

W 4

93

78

Dec 20

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

88

74

12

3

W 3

86

72

Dec 13

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

W

78

75

11

3

W 2

77

77

Dec 6

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

91

63

10

3

W 1

89

66

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bilbao and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Barcelona.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Barcelona and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bilbao.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bilbao (in the first graph) and by Barcelona in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bilbao will expected to score 75 points and the Barcelona 86 points. The total points line estimated to be at 161.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Bilbao

Barcelona

FG%

0.52

0.48

ASS

14.90

15.70

DRB

20.90

18.90

AST-TO

1.03

1.15

TRB

29.40

28.30

FTM

13.40

13.50

BL

2.20

2.50

FTA

17.40

18.00

PF-Fewer

21.60

20.70

ST

6.00

8.30

TO-Fewer

14.50

13.70

Ftper

0.77

0.75

ORBper

0.41

0.50

ORB

8.60

9.40


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Valencia vs Real Betis at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Valencia and Real Betis for Liga ACB, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Valencia

1.13

1.65

Real Betis

6.25

2.53

Valencia HC

-11.5

-3.50

Real Betis HC

+11.5

3.50

Point Line

163.5

159.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Valencia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 31

A

Unicaja

W

89

85

15

6

W 11

88

81

Jan 24

H

Baskonia

W

83

61

14

6

W 10

89

60

Jan 17

A

San Pablo Burgos

W

83

78

13

6

W 9

85

72

Jan 9

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

106

73

12

6

W 8

100

76

Jan 4

A

Divina Seguros Joventut

W

91

80

11

6

W 7

89

78

Jan 2

H

Herbalife Gran Canaria

W

101

85

10

6

W 6

98

90

Dec 27

H

Acunsa GBC

W

101

75

9

6

W 5

95

83

Dec 20

H

UCAM Murcia

W

89

78

8

6

W 4

87

78

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Real Betis are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 23

H

Unicaja

W

78

75

5

15

W 1

77

72

Jan 17

A

Baskonia

L

76

103

4

15

L 3

81

102

Jan 9

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

76

85

4

14

L 2

78

79

Jan 2

A

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

L

95

96

4

13

L 1

88

98

Dec 29

A

Unicaja

W

114

111

4

12

W 2

112

106

Dec 27

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

86

79

3

12

W 1

85

79

Dec 22

A

Herbalife Gran Canaria

L

54

78

2

12

L 6

53

82

Dec 12

H

Baskonia

L

73

77

2

11

L 5

78

76

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Valencia and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Real Betis.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Real Betis and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Valencia.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Valencia (in the first graph) and by Real Betis in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Valencia will expected to score 85 points and the Real Betis 78 points. The total points line estimated to be at 163.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Valencia

Real Betis

FG%

0.59

0.49

ASS

19.50

13.50

DRB

22.60

19.90

AST-TO

1.50

0.97

TRB

29.70

30.50

FTM

14.90

14.70

BL

1.60

2.70

FTA

18.00

20.30

PF-Fewer

16.50

20.40

ST

6.60

8.60

TO-Fewer

13.00

13.90

Ftper

0.83

0.72

ORBper

0.31

0.53

ORB

7.10

10.60


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Zaragoza vs Obradoiro at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Zaragoza and Obradoiro for Liga ACB, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Zaragoza

1.36

1.52

Obradoiro

3.2

2.94

Zaragoza HC

-5.5

-5.00

Obradoiro HC

+5.5

5.00

Point Line

170.5

165.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Zaragoza are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 3

A

Movistar Estudiantes

W

79

73

8

13

W 1

77

76

Jan 31

A

Baskonia

L

61

89

7

13

L 1

65

88

Jan 23

A

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

96

73

7

12

W 3

90

76

Jan 16

H

Montakit Fuenlabrada

W

105

85

6

12

W 2

103

85

Jan 2

H

Coosur Real Betis

W

96

95

5

12

W 1

94

102

Dec 27

H

Baskonia

L

89

92

4

12

L 2

95

91

Dec 20

A

Rio Natura Monbus Obradoiro

L

91

102

4

11

L 1

89

104

Dec 13

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

105

76

4

10

W 2

99

80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Obradoiro are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Jan 30

H

RETAbet Bilbao Basket

W

80

72

7

10

W 1

75

75

Dec 27

A

UCAM Murcia

L

76

93

6

10

L 1

74

94

Dec 20

H

Tecnyconta Zaragoza

W

102

91

6

9

W 1

95

93

Dec 17

H

Divina Seguros Joventut

L

83

87

5

9

L 7

81

85

Dec 13

H

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

75

78

5

8

L 6

83

73

Dec 5

A

Iberostar Tenerife

L

62

107

5

7

L 5

64

99

Nov 21

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

63

78

5

6

L 4

65

72

Nov 15

A

Baskonia

L

74

80

5

5

L 3

79

79

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Zaragoza and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Obradoiro.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Obradoiro and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Zaragoza.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Zaragoza (in the first graph) and by Obradoiro in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Zaragoza will expected to score 85 points and the Obradoiro 84 points. The total points line estimated to be at 169.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var

Zaragoza

Obradoiro

FG%

0.54

0.56

ASS

16.10

15.40

DRB

23.00

20.20

AST-TO

1.23

1.11

TRB

30.30

29.20

FTM

14.50

13.60

BL

2.60

2.20

FTA

20.20

17.30

PF-Fewer

20.50

19.50

ST

6.70

6.20

TO-Fewer

13.10

13.90

Ftper

0.72

0.79

ORBper

0.32

0.44

ORB

7.30

8.90


Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.


Go to Top


Murcia vs Joventut Badalona at 07 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Murcia and Joventut Badalona for Liga ACB, which will take place on 07 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome

Books

Ours

Murcia

2.05

2.40

Joventut Badalona

1.78

1.71

Murcia HC

+1.5

3.00

Joventut Badalona HC

-1.5

-3.00

Point Line

172.5

164.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Murcia are:

gDate

At

Opponent

WL

Tm

Opp

W

L

Str

aOff

aDef

Feb 2

A

Real Madrid

L

87

98

8

12

L 4

93

93

Jan 31

A

FC Barcelona Lassa

L

63

92

8

11

L 3

70

87

Jan 26

H

Manresa

L

93

103

8

10

L 2

90

102

Jan 23

H

San Pablo Burgos

L

75

81

8

9

L 1

77