2021 02 06 Turkey Super League

BASKETBALL DIVISION Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Turk Telekom vs Afyon Belediye at 06 February 2021
Darussafaka vs Karsiyaka at 06 February 2021
Bahcesehir Koleji vs Buyukcekmece at 06 February 2021
Gaziantep vs Galatasaray at 06 February 2021
Anadolu Efes vs Besiktas at 07 February 2021
Fethiye Belediye vs Ormanspor at 07 February 2021
Petkim Spor vs Fenerbahce at 07 February 2021
Tofas vs Bursaspor at 07 February 2021

Before continue, please read the disclaimer.

Turk Telekom vs Afyon Belediye at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Turk Telekom and Afyon Belediye for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Turk Telekom	1.36	1.98
Afyon Belediye	3.05	2.02
Turk Telekom HC	-6.5	-1.00
Afyon Belediye HC	+6.5	1.00
Point Line	165.5	162.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Turk Telekom are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 31	A	Buyukcekmece	W	86	75	11	8	W 2	82	76
Jan 23	H	Bahcesehir	W	101	88	10	8	W 1	99	89
Jan 17	H	Anadolu Efes	L	84	86	9	8	L 3	94	80
Jan 10	A	Darussafaka	L	72	84	9	7	L 2	74	84
Jan 2	A	Tofas	L	64	78	9	6	L 1	63	74
Dec 27	H	Socar Spor	W	89	71	9	5	W 1	89	71
Dec 19	A	Gaziantep	L	66	70	8	5	L 1	71	75
Dec 13	H	Fethiye	W	87	75	8	4	W 1	80	80

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Afyon Belediye are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 30	H	Darussafaka	W	80	79	11	8	W 4	82	79
Jan 24	A	Tofas	W	85	83	10	8	W 3	84	79
Jan 16	H	Socar Spor	W	94	76	9	8	W 2	94	76
Jan 10	A	Gaziantep	W	88	84	8	8	W 1	95	90
Jan 3	A	Fethiye	L	89	100	7	8	L 2	82	107
Dec 27	H	Besiktas	L	73	96	7	7	L 1	74	94
Dec 20	A	Ormanspor	W	101	85	7	6	W 2	93	92
Dec 12	H	Galatasaray	W	97	80	6	6	W 1	92	80

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Turk Telekom and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Afyon Belediye.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Afyon Belediye and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Turk Telekom.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Turk Telekom (in the first graph) and by Afyon Belediye in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Turk Telekom will expected to score 84 points and the Afyon Belediye 82 points. The total points line estimated to be at 166.5 points.

Furthermore, to calculate our handicaps we measure the teams’ performance in fourteen critical aspects of the game, each one with specific weight to the final score.
The following table presents these variables.

Var	Turk Telekom	Afyon Belediye
FG%	0.54	0.54
ASS	18.60	19.70
DRB	24.60	22.20
AST-TO	1.63	1.37
TRB	33.80	32.40
FTM	15.30	12.10
BL	2.10	2.70
FTA	20.40	16.40
PF-Fewer	19.80	18.90
ST	4.70	7.10
TO-Fewer	11.40	14.40
Ftper	0.75	0.74
ORBper	0.37	0.46
ORB	9.20	10.20

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Darussafaka vs Karsiyaka at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Darussafaka and Karsiyaka for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Darussafaka	2.6	2.60
Karsiyaka	1.47	1.62
Darussafaka HC	+4.5	4.00
Karsiyaka HC	-4.5	-4.00
Point Line	158.5	158.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Darussafaka are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Feb 3	A	Socar Spor	L	70	78	9	10	L 2	70	78
Jan 30	A	Afyon	L	79	80	9	9	L 1	76	79
Jan 23	H	Buyukcekmece	W	85	82	9	8	W 3	81	83
Jan 17	A	Bahcesehir	W	85	76	8	8	W 2	83	76
Jan 10	H	Turk Telekom	W	84	72	7	8	W 1	84	70
Jan 2	H	Anadolu Efes	L	70	81	6	8	L 2	78	75
Dec 27	H	Tofas	L	72	85	6	7	L 1	71	81
Dec 13	H	Gaziantep	W	82	75	6	6	W 2	89	81

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Karsiyaka are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 31	H	Tofas	W	90	71	16	3	W 11	89	68
Jan 24	A	Socar Spor	W	85	75	15	3	W 10	85	75
Jan 17	H	Gaziantep	W	72	65	14	3	W 9	78	70
Jan 9	A	Fethiye	W	86	78	13	3	W 8	80	84
Jan 2	A	Besiktas	W	84	72	12	3	W 7	85	70
Dec 27	H	Ormanspor	W	86	57	11	3	W 6	79	61
Dec 19	A	Galatasaray	W	86	74	10	3	W 5	82	74
Dec 16	A	Buyukcekmece	W	90	77	9	3	W 4	85	78

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Darussafaka and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Karsiyaka.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Karsiyaka and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Darussafaka.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Darussafaka (in the first graph) and by Karsiyaka in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Darussafaka will expected to score 77 points and the Karsiyaka 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 158.5 points.

Var	Darussafaka	Karsiyaka
FG%	0.50	0.54
ASS	18.10	19.40
DRB	21.50	24.50
AST-TO	1.60	1.64
TRB	32.70	34.30
FTM	15.90	18.10
BL	3.00	2.00
FTA	20.40	24.60
PF-Fewer	22.50	18.90
ST	7.70	6.50
TO-Fewer	11.30	11.80
Ftper	0.78	0.74
ORBper	0.52	0.40
ORB	11.20	9.80

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Bahcesehir Koleji vs Buyukcekmece at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bahcesehir Koleji and Buyukcekmece for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Bahcesehir Koleji	1.55	2.50
Buyukcekmece	2.4	1.67
Bahcesehir Koleji HC	-3.5	3.50
Buyukcekmece HC	+3.5	-3.50
Point Line	169.5	160.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Bahcesehir Koleji are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 31	H	Anadolu Efes	L	76	100	6	13	L 4	85	92
Jan 23	A	Turk Telekom	L	88	101	6	12	L 3	88	98
Jan 17	H	Darussafaka	L	76	85	6	11	L 2	78	85
Jan 9	A	Tofas	L	80	87	6	10	L 1	79	83
Jan 3	A	Socar Spor	W	77	72	6	9	W 1	77	72
Dec 26	H	Gaziantep	L	76	83	5	9	L 1	82	89
Dec 20	A	Fethiye	W	105	76	5	8	W 1	97	81
Dec 12	H	Besiktas	L	76	86	4	8	L 5	77	84

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Buyukcekmece are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 31	H	Turk Telekom	L	75	86	7	12	L 5	75	83
Jan 23	A	Darussafaka	L	82	85	7	11	L 4	84	85
Jan 16	H	Tofas	L	75	88	7	10	L 3	74	84
Jan 10	A	Socar Spor	L	77	98	7	9	L 2	77	98
Jan 7	A	Bursaspor	L	81	89	7	8	L 1	76	92
Jan 2	A	Gaziantep	W	66	65	7	7	W 2	71	70
Dec 26	H	Fethiye	W	66	59	6	7	W 1	61	63
Dec 20	A	Besiktas	L	77	84	5	7	L 2	78	82

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Bahcesehir Koleji and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Buyukcekmece.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Buyukcekmece and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Bahcesehir Koleji.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Bahcesehir Koleji (in the first graph) and by Buyukcekmece in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Bahcesehir Koleji will expected to score 83 points and the Buyukcekmece 81 points. The total points line estimated to be at 164.5 points.

Var	Bahcesehir Koleji	Buyukcekmece
FG%	0.53	0.49
ASS	17.30	17.60
DRB	22.80	22.80
AST-TO	1.37	1.49
TRB	31.70	32.60
FTM	15.00	14.30
BL	2.00	2.10
FTA	20.10	18.20
PF-Fewer	20.70	21.40
ST	6.40	5.80
TO-Fewer	12.60	11.80
Ftper	0.75	0.78
ORBper	0.39	0.43
ORB	8.90	9.80

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Gaziantep vs Galatasaray at 06 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gaziantep and Galatasaray for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 06 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Gaziantep	1.47	1.57
Galatasaray	2.6	2.75
Gaziantep HC	-5.5	-4.50
Galatasaray HC	+5.5	4.50
Point Line	153.5	153.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Gaziantep are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 31	A	Fenerbahce	W	102	97	9	10	W 2	107	89
Jan 24	H	Bursaspor	W	77	70	8	10	W 1	73	72
Jan 17	A	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	65	72	7	10	L 4	71	70
Jan 10	H	Afyon	L	84	88	7	9	L 3	81	87
Jan 5	H	Anadolu Efes	L	60	68	7	8	L 2	67	63
Jan 2	H	Buyukcekmece	L	65	66	7	7	L 1	62	67
Dec 26	A	Bahcesehir	W	83	76	7	6	W 3	81	76
Dec 19	H	Turk Telekom	W	70	66	6	6	W 2	70	64

The latest results and the adjusted scores of Galatasaray are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 30	H	Fethiye	W	71	68	7	12	W 1	66	73
Jan 23	A	Besiktas	L	64	82	6	12	L 1	65	80
Jan 16	H	Ormanspor	W	89	87	6	11	W 1	82	94
Jan 10	A	Anadolu Efes	L	80	90	5	11	L 2	90	83
Jan 2	H	Fenerbahce	L	73	87	5	10	L 1	77	80
Dec 27	A	Bursaspor	W	92	73	5	9	W 1	87	75
Dec 19	H	Pinar Karsiyaka	L	74	86	4	9	L 3	81	84
Dec 12	A	Afyon	L	80	97	4	8	L 2	77	96

The first graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Gaziantep and the the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Galatasaray.
The second graph shows the moving average of the adjusted points scored by Galatasaray and the moving average of the adjusted points conceded by Gaziantep.
The black line on each graph shows an estimation of the points scored by Gaziantep (in the first graph) and by Galatasaray in the second graph.
This method may produce better long term results regarding point lines.

By applying the findings from the graphs above, Gaziantep will expected to score 80 points and the Galatasaray 77 points. The total points line estimated to be at 157.5 points.

Var	Gaziantep	Galatasaray
FG%	0.51	0.55
ASS	20.20	19.10
DRB	23.40	21.90
AST-TO	1.85	1.53
TRB	32.90	29.30
FTM	12.00	13.40
BL	2.70	2.60
FTA	17.30	17.80
PF-Fewer	21.20	18.50
ST	6.70	6.10
TO-Fewer	10.90	12.50
Ftper	0.69	0.75
ORBper	0.41	0.34
ORB	9.50	7.40

Check my book in Amazon bookstore! It is about football but you can see the logic behind my analysis.

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Anadolu Efes vs Besiktas at 07 February 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Anadolu Efes and Besiktas for Turkey BSL, which will take place on 07 February 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based our calculations are :

Outcome	Books	Ours
Anadolu Efes	1.06	1.53
Besiktas	8.5	2.89
Anadolu Efes HC	-15.5	-5.00
Besiktas HC	+15.5	5.00
Point Line	170.5	156.00

We have adjusted the points scored and points received for the two teams based on their opponents dynamics. The latest results and the adjusted scores of Anadolu Efes are:

gDate	At	Opponent	WL	Tm	Opp	W	L	Str	aOff	aDef
Jan 31	A	Bahcesehir	W	100	76	19	0	W 18	98	76
Jan 23	H	Ormanspor	W	95	75	18	0	W 17	88	81
Jan 19	H	Bursaspor	W	91	58	17	0	W 16	86	60
Jan 17