2021 02 09 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Rotherham vs Cardiff at 09 February 2021
Sheffield Weds vs Wycombe at 09 February 2021
Reading vs Brentford at 10 February 2021


Rotherham vs Cardiff at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rotherham and Cardiff for Championship (England), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rotherham

2.90

2.55

4.7

Draw

3.21

3.60

-3.4

Cardiff

2.54

3.03

-6.4

Over 2.5

2.16

2.17

-0.2

Under 2.5

1.71

1.86

-4.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rotherham (4.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rotherham in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rotherham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rotherham’s performance at home.
Rotherham, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Rotherham scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rotherham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Preston

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Feb

Derby

H

3

0

W

O

N

30 Jan

Swansea

H

1

3

L

O

G

27 Jan

Middlesbrough

A

3

0

W

O

N

19 Jan

Stoke

H

3

3

D

O

G

16 Jan

Derby

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Barnsley

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Dec

Blackburn

A

1

2

L

O

G


Cardiff in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cardiff in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cardiff’s performance as a guest.
Cardiff, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 48.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Cardiff scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cardiff was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Bristol City

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Millwall

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Jan

Barnsley

A

2

2

D

O

G

20 Jan

QPR

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Norwich

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Dec

Wycombe

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Brentford

H

2

3

L

O

G

19 Dec

Norwich

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rotherham and the red line for guest team, Cardiff.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rotherham

26%

38%

21%

16%

Cardiff

30%

36%

22%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.1 goals and Cardiff to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rotherham to score 1.27 goals and Cardiff to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.52

1

4.83

2-3

2.04

2

3.92

4+

4.44

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.40

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.52

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

1.93

Ov 3.5

4.44

NoG

2.08

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.49

3.69

3.05

2-3 goals

2.63

3.60

2.92

4+ goals

2.45

3.46

3.31

Ov 1.5

2.57

3.56

3.03

Un 1.5

2.49

3.69

3.05

Ov 2.5

2.14

7.08

2.56

Un 2.5

3.05

2.53

3.62

Ov 3.5

2.45

3.46

3.31

Un 3.5

2.58

3.63

2.97

Goal-Goal

3.10

2.58

3.45

No Goal

2.14

6.25

2.69

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.29

5.88

2.55

NG+Un 2.5

2.28

6.25

2.70


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sheffield Weds vs Wycombe at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sheffield Weds and Wycombe for Championship (England), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sheffield Weds

1.94

1.81

3.7

Draw

3.52

4.12

-4.1

Wycombe

3.97

4.93

-4.9

Over 2.5

2.14

2.03

2.5

Under 2.5

1.72

1.97

-7.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sheffield Weds, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sheffield Weds in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield Weds in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance at home.
Sheffield Weds, at home, had 5 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 51.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Millwall

A

1

4

L

O

G

02 Feb

Bournemouth

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Preston

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Jan

Coventry

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Jan

Derby

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Middlesbrough

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Blackburn

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Coventry

H

1

0

W

U

N


Wycombe in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance as a guest.
Wycombe, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 13.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Nott’m Forest

H

0

3

L

O

N

02 Feb

Birmingham

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Brentford

A

2

7

L

O

G

02 Jan

Middlesbrough

H

1

3

L

O

G

29 Dec

Cardiff

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Bristol City

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

QPR

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Dec

Bournemouth

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sheffield Weds and the red line for guest team, Wycombe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sheffield Weds

19%

28%

30%

23%

Wycombe

38%

40%

13%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 1.46 goals and Wycombe to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Sheffield Weds to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 1.57 goals and Wycombe to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Sheffield Weds to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.91

1

5.46

2-3

1.96

2

4.02

4+

4.31

3

3.83

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.45

Un 1.5

3.91

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

2.02

Ov 3.5

4.31

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.39

3.51

3.37

2-3 goals

1.58

4.59

6.71

4+ goals

1.87

4.00

4.64

Ov 1.5

1.66

4.39

5.89

Un 1.5

2.39

3.51

3.37

Ov 2.5

1.48

8.50

4.83

Un 2.5

2.29

2.74

5.05

Ov 3.5

1.87

4.00

4.64

Un 3.5

1.78

4.16

5.04

Goal-Goal

2.05

2.93

5.84

No Goal

1.61

6.88

4.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.59

6.64

4.53

NG+Un 2.5

1.78

6.88

3.94


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Reading vs Brentford at 10 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reading and Brentford for Championship (England), which will take place on 10 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reading

3.63

2.65

10.2

Draw

3.37

3.72

-2.8

Brentford

2.09

2.83

-12.5

Over 2.5

2.06

2.09

-0.7

Under 2.5

1.78

1.92

-4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reading (10.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reading in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reading in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Reading’s performance at home.
Reading, at home, had 9 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 27 points, 69.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Reading scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reading was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Stoke

A

0

0

D

U

N

29 Jan

Bournemouth

H

3

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Preston

A

0

0

D

U

N

19 Jan

Coventry

H

3

0

W

O

N

02 Jan

Huddersfield

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Dec

Swansea

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Luton

H

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Brentford

A

1

3

L

O

G


Brentford in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brentford in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Brentford’s performance as a guest.
Brentford, as a guest, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 64.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Brentford scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brentford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Middlesbrough

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Feb

Bristol City

H

3

2

W

O

G

30 Jan

Wycombe

H

7

2

W

O

G

27 Jan

Swansea

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Jan

Luton

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Bournemouth

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Cardiff

A

3

2

W

O

G

19 Dec

Reading

H

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reading and the red line for guest team, Brentford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reading

28%

32%

25%

14%

Brentford

30%

32%

25%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reading to score 0.97 goals and Brentford to score 1.43 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the guest team Brentford to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reading to score 1.26 goals and Brentford to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.05 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.76

0-1

3.68

1

5.35

2-3

2.04

2

4.00

4+

4.18

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.68

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.99

Ov 3.5

4.18

NoG

2.00

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.80

3.20

3.02

2-3 goals

2.47

4.77

2.60

4+ goals

2.91

2.91

3.19

Ov 1.5

2.60

3.95

2.77

Un 1.5

2.80

3.20

3.02

Ov 2.5

2.34

5.85

2.49

Un 2.5

3.02

2.78

3.24

Ov 3.5

2.91

2.91

3.19

Un 3.5

2.58

4.06

2.73

Goal-Goal

3.10

2.72

3.22

No Goal

2.31

5.87

2.52

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.47

4.88

2.56

NG+Un 2.5

2.42

5.87

2.60


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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