# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Barnet vs Halifax at 09 February 2021**** Bromley vs King’s Lynn at 09 February 2021**** Dover Athletic vs Maidenhead at 09 February 2021**** Eastleigh vs Yeovil at 09 February 2021**** Hartlepool vs Solihull at 09 February 2021**** Notts County vs Dag and Red at 09 February 2021**** Sutton vs Woking at 09 February 2021**** Torquay vs Wealdstone at 09 February 2021**** Weymouth vs Boreham Wood at 09 February 2021**** Altrincham vs Wrexham at 09 February 2021**** Aldershot vs Chesterfield at 09 February 2021**

###
Barnet vs Halifax at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Barnet** and **Halifax** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **09 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Barnet |
3.15 |
3.42 |
-2.5 |

Draw |
3.36 |
3.65 |
-2.4 |

Halifax |
2.14 |
2.30 |
-3.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
1.98 |
-0.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
2.02 |
-5.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Barnet** in the **last six** matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnet scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Barnet** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnet scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Barnet’s performance** at home**.

Barnet,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Barnet scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Barnet was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Feb |
Aldershot |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Dover Athletic |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Altrincham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Boreham Wood |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Chesterfield |
A |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Wealdstone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Halifax** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Halifax** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Halifax scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance** as a guest**.

Halifax,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Halifax scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Halifax was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Maidenhead |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
King’s Lynn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Dec |
Altrincham |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Hartlepool |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Eastleigh |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Barnet** and the red line for guest team, **Halifax. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Barnet |
25% |
45% |
20% |
10% |

Halifax |
22% |
33% |
26% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Barnet** to score **1.06 ** goals and **Halifax** to score **1.41 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the guest team **Halifax ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Barnet** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Halifax** to score **1.42 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.27** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.86 |
0-1 |
4.20 |

1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
3.94 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
4.20 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.72 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |

NoG |
2.40 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.40 |
4.25 |
2.87 |

2-3 goals |
3.90 |
3.43 |
2.21 |

4+ goals |
4.16 |
3.63 |
2.07 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.98 |
3.49 |
2.16 |

Un 1.5 |
2.40 |
4.25 |
2.87 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.41 |
7.21 |
1.76 |

Un 2.5 |
3.48 |
2.42 |
3.34 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.16 |
3.63 |
2.07 |

Un 3.5 |
3.25 |
3.65 |
2.39 |

Goal-Goal |
4.66 |
2.67 |
2.44 |

No Goal |
2.53 |
7.45 |
2.13 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.47 |
6.20 |
1.82 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
7.45 |
2.34 |

####
Go to Top

###
Bromley vs King’s Lynn at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bromley** and **King’s Lynn** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **09 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bromley |
1.85 |
2.20 |
-8.6 |

Draw |
3.40 |
3.88 |
-3.6 |

King’s Lynn |
4.23 |
3.47 |
5.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.65 |
2.00 |
-10.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.00 |
4.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **King’s Lynn, Under 2.5 (5.2 %, 4.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bromley** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bromley** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance** at home**.

Bromley,** at home**, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 36.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Aldershot |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Woking |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
King’s Lynn |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**King’s Lynn** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **King’s Lynn** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance** as a guest**.

King’s Lynn,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Wrexham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Dag and Red |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Dec |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Hartlepool |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Dec |
Bromley |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Nov |
Dover Athletic |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bromley** and the red line for guest team, **King’s Lynn. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bromley |
26% |
28% |
25% |
22% |

King’s Lynn |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bromley** to score **1.82 ** goals and **King’s Lynn** to score **1.02 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.84** goals in the game and the home team **Bromley ** to win by **0.8** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bromley** to score **1.42 ** goals and **King’s Lynn** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.52** goals in the game and the home team **Bromley ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.77 |

1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.77 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.94 |
3.19 |
2.88 |

2-3 goals |
1.99 |
4.81 |
3.46 |

4+ goals |
2.07 |
3.36 |
4.55 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.02 |
4.18 |
3.77 |

Un 1.5 |
2.94 |
3.19 |
2.88 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
6.59 |
3.55 |

Un 2.5 |
2.92 |
2.73 |
3.42 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.07 |
3.36 |
4.55 |

Un 3.5 |
2.25 |
4.08 |
3.23 |

Goal-Goal |
2.36 |
2.86 |
4.42 |

No Goal |
2.06 |
5.99 |
2.87 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |
5.32 |
3.54 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
5.99 |
2.74 |

####
Go to Top

###
Dover Athletic vs Maidenhead at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Dover Athletic** and **Maidenhead** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **09 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Dover Athletic |
2.91 |
3.33 |
-4.3 |

Draw |
3.53 |
3.65 |
-0.9 |

Maidenhead |
2.17 |
2.35 |
-3.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.98 |
-9.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.02 |
2.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (2.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Dover Athletic** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dover Athletic** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dover Athletic’s performance** at home**.

Dover Athletic,** at home**, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dover Athletic was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Yeovil |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Barnet |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Solihull |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Wrexham |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Dag and Red |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
King’s Lynn |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Nov |
Woking |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

**Maidenhead** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Maidenhead** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance** as a guest**.

Maidenhead,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Boreham Wood |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Halifax |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Yeovil |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Woking |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Wealdstone |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Dover Athletic** and the red line for guest team, **Maidenhead. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Dover Athletic |
25% |
44% |
20% |
11% |

Maidenhead |
23% |
33% |
26% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Dover Athletic** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Maidenhead** to score **1.55 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.8** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.3** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Dover Athletic** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Maidenhead** to score **1.4 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.54 |
0-1 |
4.15 |

1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
3.94 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
4.15 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.72 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |

NoG |
2.38 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.39 |
4.23 |
2.90 |

2-3 goals |
3.75 |
3.44 |
2.26 |

4+ goals |
4.03 |
3.58 |
2.12 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.84 |
3.49 |
2.21 |

Un 1.5 |
2.39 |
4.23 |
2.90 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.29 |
7.10 |
1.80 |

Un 2.5 |
3.40 |
2.44 |
3.38 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.03 |
3.58 |
2.12 |

Un 3.5 |
3.17 |
3.66 |
2.43 |

Goal-Goal |
4.50 |
2.66 |
2.49 |

No Goal |
2.48 |
7.39 |
2.17 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.36 |
6.10 |
1.86 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.40 |
7.39 |
2.38 |

####
Go to Top

###
Eastleigh vs Yeovil at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Eastleigh** and **Yeovil** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **09 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Eastleigh |
2.60 |
2.23 |
6.4 |

Draw |
3.37 |
3.83 |
-3.6 |

Yeovil |
2.48 |
3.45 |
-11.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.99 |
-5.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.99 |
2.01 |
-0.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Eastleigh (6.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Eastleigh** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Eastleigh** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Eastleigh** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance** at home**.

Eastleigh,** at home**, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Solihull |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Feb |
Wrexham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Boreham Wood |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Dag and Red |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
Sutton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Jan |
King’s Lynn |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Dec |
Woking |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Yeovil** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Yeovil** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance** as a guest**.

Yeovil,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Yeovil scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Dover Athletic |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Maidenhead |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Torquay |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Dec |
Aldershot |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

26 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Eastleigh** and the red line for guest team, **Yeovil. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Eastleigh |
24% |
30% |
25% |
21% |

Yeovil |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Eastleigh** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Yeovil** to score **1.35 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.05** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Eastleigh** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Yeovil** to score **1.11 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and the home team **Eastleigh ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.83 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.20 |
4+ |
3.92 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |

Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |

NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |