Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Barnet vs Halifax at 09 February 2021
Bromley vs King’s Lynn at 09 February 2021
Dover Athletic vs Maidenhead at 09 February 2021
Eastleigh vs Yeovil at 09 February 2021
Hartlepool vs Solihull at 09 February 2021
Notts County vs Dag and Red at 09 February 2021
Sutton vs Woking at 09 February 2021
Torquay vs Wealdstone at 09 February 2021
Weymouth vs Boreham Wood at 09 February 2021
Altrincham vs Wrexham at 09 February 2021
Aldershot vs Chesterfield at 09 February 2021
Barnet vs Halifax at 09 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Barnet and Halifax for Conference (England), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Barnet |
3.15 |
3.42 |
-2.5 |
|
Draw |
3.36 |
3.65 |
-2.4 |
|
Halifax |
2.14 |
2.30 |
-3.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.95 |
1.98 |
-0.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
2.02 |
-5.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Barnet in the last six matches had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barnet in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Barnet’s performance at home.
Barnet, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Barnet scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barnet was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
02 Feb |
Aldershot |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Dover Athletic |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Altrincham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Boreham Wood |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Chesterfield |
A |
0 |
6 |
L |
O |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Wealdstone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Halifax in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance as a guest.
Halifax, as a guest, had 3 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 39.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Maidenhead |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
King’s Lynn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Altrincham |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Hartlepool |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Eastleigh |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barnet and the red line for guest team, Halifax.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Barnet |
25% |
45% |
20% |
10% |
|
Halifax |
22% |
33% |
26% |
19% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnet to score 1.06 goals and Halifax to score 1.41 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the guest team Halifax to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnet to score 1.15 goals and Halifax to score 1.42 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.27 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
17.86 |
0-1 |
4.20 |
|
1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
1.97 |
|
2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
3.94 |
|
3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |
|
4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
4.20 |
|
5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
Gg |
1.72 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |
|
NoG |
2.40 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.40 |
4.25 |
2.87 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.90 |
3.43 |
2.21 |
|
4+ goals |
4.16 |
3.63 |
2.07 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.98 |
3.49 |
2.16 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.40 |
4.25 |
2.87 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
3.41 |
7.21 |
1.76 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.48 |
2.42 |
3.34 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
4.16 |
3.63 |
2.07 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.25 |
3.65 |
2.39 |
|
Goal-Goal |
4.66 |
2.67 |
2.44 |
|
No Goal |
2.53 |
7.45 |
2.13 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.47 |
6.20 |
1.82 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
7.45 |
2.34 |
Go to Top
Bromley vs King’s Lynn at 09 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Bromley and King’s Lynn for Conference (England), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Bromley |
1.85 |
2.20 |
-8.6 |
|
Draw |
3.40 |
3.88 |
-3.6 |
|
King’s Lynn |
4.23 |
3.47 |
5.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.65 |
2.00 |
-10.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.18 |
2.00 |
4.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at King’s Lynn, Under 2.5 (5.2 %, 4.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Bromley in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance at home.
Bromley, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 36.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bromley was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Aldershot |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Woking |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
King’s Lynn |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
King’s Lynn in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, King’s Lynn in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at King’s Lynn’s performance as a guest.
King’s Lynn, as a guest, had 3 wins, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, King’s Lynn scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of King’s Lynn was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Wrexham |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Dag and Red |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Hartlepool |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Dec |
Bromley |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
21 Nov |
Dover Athletic |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bromley and the red line for guest team, King’s Lynn.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Bromley |
26% |
28% |
25% |
22% |
|
King’s Lynn |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bromley to score 1.82 goals and King’s Lynn to score 1.02 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.84 goals in the game and the home team Bromley to win by 0.8 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bromley to score 1.42 goals and King’s Lynn to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Bromley to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.77 |
|
1 |
5.49 |
2-3 |
2.08 |
|
2 |
4.26 |
4+ |
3.92 |
|
3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |
|
4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.77 |
|
5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |
|
NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.94 |
3.19 |
2.88 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.99 |
4.81 |
3.46 |
|
4+ goals |
2.07 |
3.36 |
4.55 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.02 |
4.18 |
3.77 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.94 |
3.19 |
2.88 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
6.59 |
3.55 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.92 |
2.73 |
3.42 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.07 |
3.36 |
4.55 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.25 |
4.08 |
3.23 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.36 |
2.86 |
4.42 |
|
No Goal |
2.06 |
5.99 |
2.87 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |
5.32 |
3.54 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
5.99 |
2.74 |
Go to Top
Dover Athletic vs Maidenhead at 09 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Dover Athletic and Maidenhead for Conference (England), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Dover Athletic |
2.91 |
3.33 |
-4.3 |
|
Draw |
3.53 |
3.65 |
-0.9 |
|
Maidenhead |
2.17 |
2.35 |
-3.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.68 |
1.98 |
-9.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.02 |
2.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (2.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Dover Athletic in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dover Athletic in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Dover Athletic’s performance at home.
Dover Athletic, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dover Athletic was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Yeovil |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Barnet |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Solihull |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Wrexham |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Dag and Red |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
King’s Lynn |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Nov |
Woking |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
Maidenhead in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance as a guest.
Maidenhead, as a guest, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Boreham Wood |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Halifax |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Jan |
Yeovil |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Woking |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Wealdstone |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dover Athletic and the red line for guest team, Maidenhead.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Dover Athletic |
25% |
44% |
20% |
11% |
|
Maidenhead |
23% |
33% |
26% |
19% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dover Athletic to score 1.25 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.55 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.8 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dover Athletic to score 1.17 goals and Maidenhead to score 1.4 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
17.54 |
0-1 |
4.15 |
|
1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
3.94 |
|
3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
4.15 |
|
5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
Gg |
1.72 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |
|
NoG |
2.38 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.39 |
4.23 |
2.90 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.75 |
3.44 |
2.26 |
|
4+ goals |
4.03 |
3.58 |
2.12 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.84 |
3.49 |
2.21 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.39 |
4.23 |
2.90 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
3.29 |
7.10 |
1.80 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.40 |
2.44 |
3.38 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
4.03 |
3.58 |
2.12 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.17 |
3.66 |
2.43 |
|
Goal-Goal |
4.50 |
2.66 |
2.49 |
|
No Goal |
2.48 |
7.39 |
2.17 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.36 |
6.10 |
1.86 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.40 |
7.39 |
2.38 |
Go to Top
Eastleigh vs Yeovil at 09 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Eastleigh and Yeovil for Conference (England), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Eastleigh |
2.60 |
2.23 |
6.4 |
|
Draw |
3.37 |
3.83 |
-3.6 |
|
Yeovil |
2.48 |
3.45 |
-11.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.99 |
-5.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.99 |
2.01 |
-0.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Eastleigh (6.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Eastleigh in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eastleigh in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Eastleigh’s performance at home.
Eastleigh, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Eastleigh scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eastleigh was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Solihull |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Feb |
Wrexham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Boreham Wood |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Dag and Red |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Sutton |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
19 Jan |
King’s Lynn |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Woking |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Yeovil in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance as a guest.
Yeovil, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Dover Athletic |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Jan |
Maidenhead |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Torquay |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Aldershot |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |
|
08 Dec |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Eastleigh and the red line for guest team, Yeovil.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Eastleigh |
24% |
30% |
25% |
21% |
|
Yeovil |
32% |
36% |
21% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.3 goals and Yeovil to score 1.35 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.05 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Eastleigh to score 1.42 goals and Yeovil to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and the home team Eastleigh to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.83 |
|
1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.20 |
4+ |
3.92 |
|
3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.83 |
|
5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
Gg |
1.94 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.92 |
|
NoG |
2.06 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |