2021 02 09 La Liga (Spain)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Real Madrid vs Getafe at 09 February 2021


Real Madrid vs Getafe at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Real Madrid and Getafe for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Real Madrid

1.57

1.75

-6.6

Draw

3.99

4.24

-1.5

Getafe

6.59

5.15

4.2

Over 2.5

2.04

2.00

1.0

Under 2.5

1.81

2.00

-5.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Getafe, Over 2.5 (4.2 %, 1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Real Madrid in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Real Madrid in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Real Madrid’s performance at home.
Real Madrid, at home, had 6 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Real Madrid scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Real Madrid was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Huesca

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Levante

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

Alaves

A

4

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Osasuna

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Jan

Celta

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Elche

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Granada

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Eibar

A

3

1

W

O

G


Getafe in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Getafe in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Getafe’s performance as a guest.
Getafe, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Getafe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Getafe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Sevilla

A

0

3

L

O

N

31 Jan

Alaves

H

0

0

D

U

N

25 Jan

Ath Bilbao

A

1

5

L

O

G

20 Jan

Huesca

H

1

0

W

U

N

11 Jan

Elche

A

3

1

W

O

G

02 Jan

Valladolid

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Dec

Ath Madrid

A

0

1

L

U

N

23 Dec

Celta

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Real Madrid and the red line for guest team, Getafe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Real Madrid

18%

30%

23%

29%

Getafe

45%

31%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 1.78 goals and Getafe to score 0.65 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Real Madrid to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Real Madrid to score 1.62 goals and Getafe to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Real Madrid to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.05

0-1

3.66

1

5.26

2-3

2.05

2

4.44

4+

4.18

3

3.80

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.66

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

1.99

6+

43.48

Un 2.5

2.01

Gg

2.22

Ov 3.5

4.18

NoG

1.82

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.05

3.29

4.79

2-3 goals

1.62

5.30

5.19

4+ goals

1.77

3.92

5.56

Ov 1.5

1.66

4.75

5.31

Un 1.5

2.05

3.29

4.79

Ov 2.5

1.50

8.23

4.69

Un 2.5

2.11

2.85

5.72

Ov 3.5

1.77

3.92

5.56

Un 3.5

1.75

4.35

5.04

Goal-Goal

2.19

2.95

4.90

No Goal

1.51

6.61

5.38

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.74

5.89

3.90

NG+Un 2.5

1.72

6.61

4.67


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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