# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Rochdale vs Milton Keynes Dons at 09 February 2021**** Accrington vs Plymouth at 09 February 2021**** Shrewsbury vs Sunderland at 09 February 2021**** Portsmouth vs Swindon at 09 February 2021**** Peterboro vs Ipswich at 09 February 2021**** Northampton vs Wigan at 09 February 2021**** Hull vs Lincoln at 09 February 2021**** Fleetwood Town vs Doncaster at 09 February 2021**** Bristol Rvs vs Oxford at 09 February 2021**** Blackpool vs Burton at 09 February 2021**

###
Rochdale vs Milton Keynes Dons at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rochdale** and **Milton Keynes Dons** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **09 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rochdale |
3.84 |
2.72 |
10.7 |

Draw |
3.72 |
3.64 |
0.6 |

Milton Keynes Dons |
1.89 |
2.80 |
-17.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.77 |
2.08 |
-8.4 |

Under 2.5 |
2.07 |
1.92 |
3.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Rochdale, Draw, Under 2.5 (10.7 %, 0.6 %, 3.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rochdale** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rochdale** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance** at home**.

Rochdale,** at home**, had one win, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 23.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Rochdale scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Bristol Rvs |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Oxford |
H |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Gillingham |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Doncaster |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Wigan |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Charlton |
A |
4 |
4 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Crewe |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

**Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Milton Keynes Dons** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance** as a guest**.

Milton Keynes Dons,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Sunderland |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Charlton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Peterboro |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

29 Dec |
Swindon |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Plymouth |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rochdale** and the red line for guest team, **Milton Keynes Dons. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rochdale |
28% |
34% |
23% |
15% |

Milton Keynes Dons |
26% |
37% |
26% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **1.01 ** goals and **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.69 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.7** goals in the game and the guest team **Milton Keynes Dons ** to win by **0.68** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rochdale** to score **1.26 ** goals and **Milton Keynes Dons** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.04** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.82 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.26 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.82 |

5 |
15.38 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
1.87 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.26 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.98 |
3.69 |
2.54 |

2-3 goals |
2.73 |
3.94 |
2.63 |

4+ goals |
2.47 |
3.09 |
3.67 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.64 |
3.62 |
2.89 |

Un 1.5 |
2.98 |
3.69 |
2.54 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
6.29 |
2.61 |

Un 2.5 |
3.53 |
2.62 |
2.98 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.47 |
3.09 |
3.67 |

Un 3.5 |
2.81 |
3.85 |
2.60 |

Goal-Goal |
2.97 |
2.64 |
3.52 |

No Goal |
2.48 |
6.51 |
2.25 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.27 |
5.37 |
2.68 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.67 |
6.51 |
2.25 |

####
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###
Accrington vs Plymouth at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Accrington** and **Plymouth** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **09 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Accrington |
2.28 |
1.96 |
7.2 |

Draw |
3.37 |
3.88 |
-3.9 |

Plymouth |
3.11 |
4.31 |
-9.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.69 |
2.13 |
-12.2 |

Under 2.5 |
2.19 |
1.89 |
7.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Accrington, Under 2.5 (7.2 %, 7.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Accrington** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Accrington** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance** at home**.

Accrington,** at home**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Accrington scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Northampton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Bristol Rvs |
H |
6 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Plymouth |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Hull |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Hull |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Gillingham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Jan |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Blackpool |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Plymouth** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Plymouth** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance** as a guest**.

Plymouth,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Plymouth scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Portsmouth |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Accrington |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Swindon |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Sunderland |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Crewe |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Gillingham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Oxford |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Accrington** and the red line for guest team, **Plymouth. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Accrington |
18% |
35% |
28% |
19% |

Plymouth |
38% |
35% |
17% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Accrington** to score **1.56 ** goals and **Plymouth** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.82** goals in the game and the home team **Accrington ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Accrington** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Plymouth** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Accrington ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.70 |

1 |
5.00 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.85 |
4+ |
4.46 |

3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.70 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.89 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |

NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.99 |
3.86 |
4.22 |

2-3 goals |
1.84 |
4.09 |
4.74 |

4+ goals |
2.26 |
3.50 |
3.67 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.95 |
3.89 |
4.35 |

Un 1.5 |
1.99 |
3.86 |
4.22 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.75 |
7.36 |
3.41 |

Un 2.5 |
2.19 |
2.73 |
5.64 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.50 |
3.67 |

Un 3.5 |
1.89 |
4.01 |
4.54 |

Goal-Goal |
2.57 |
2.68 |
4.20 |

No Goal |
1.58 |
7.10 |
4.44 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
5.94 |
3.17 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.68 |
7.10 |
4.32 |

####
Go to Top

###
Shrewsbury vs Sunderland at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Shrewsbury** and **Sunderland** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **09 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Shrewsbury |
3.63 |
2.87 |
7.3 |

Draw |
3.13 |
3.86 |
-6.0 |

Sunderland |
2.16 |
2.54 |
-6.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.43 |
1.93 |
10.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.57 |
2.08 |
-15.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (7.3 %, 10.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Shrewsbury** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Shrewsbury** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance** at home**.

Shrewsbury,** at home**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Swindon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Crewe |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Peterboro |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Sunderland |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Blackpool |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Wigan |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Dec |
Doncaster |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Lincoln |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Sunderland** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sunderland** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance** as a guest**.

Sunderland,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 6 draws, no defeats and gathered 24 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sunderland scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Milton Keynes Dons |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Gillingham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Ipswich |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Shrewsbury |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Plymouth |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Hull |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Northampton |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Shrewsbury** and the red line for guest team, **Sunderland. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Shrewsbury |
31% |
28% |
24% |
17% |

Sunderland |
22% |
38% |
25% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **0.88 ** goals and **Sunderland** to score **1.25 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.13** goals in the game and the guest team **Sunderland ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Shrewsbury** to score **1.27 ** goals and **Sunderland** to score **1.34 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
4.07 |

1 |
5.62 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
3.65 |

3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |

4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |

5 |
12.66 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |

6+ |
37.04 |
Un 2.5 |
2.08 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.65 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.38 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.03 |
3.62 |
2.10 |

2-3 goals |
2.64 |
4.57 |
2.49 |

4+ goals |
2.61 |
3.15 |
3.34 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.63 |
3.93 |
2.74 |

Un 1.5 |
4.03 |
3.62 |
2.10 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
5.98 |
2.61 |

Un 2.5 |
4.21 |
2.77 |
2.49 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.61 |
3.15 |
3.34 |

Un 3.5 |
2.99 |
4.20 |
2.34 |

Goal-Goal |
2.74 |
2.81 |
3.59 |

No Goal |
3.05 |
6.78 |
1.90 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
4.99 |
2.89 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.29 |
6.78 |
1.94 |

####
Go to Top

###
Portsmouth vs Swindon at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Portsmouth** and **Swindon** for **League One (England)**, which will take place on **09 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Portsmouth |
1.46 |
2.05 |
-19.7 |

Draw |
4.49 |
3.76 |
4.3 |

Swindon |
6.62 |
4.07 |
9.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
2.18 |
-11.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.11 |
1.85 |
6.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Swindon, Under 2.5 (4.3 %, 9.5 %, 6.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Portsmouth** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portsmouth** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance** at home**.

Portsmouth,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Plymouth |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Charlton |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Lincoln |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Hull |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

19 Jan |
AFC Wimbledon |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Fleetwood Town |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Dec |
Hull |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Fleetwood Town |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Swindon** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Swindon** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance** as a guest**.

Swindon,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Swindon scored in 9 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Shrewsbury |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Wigan |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Hull |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Plymouth |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Charlton |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Doncaster |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Ipswich |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Milton Keynes Dons |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Portsmouth** and the red line for guest team, **Swindon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Portsmouth |
19% |
37% |
26% |
18% |

Swindon |
37% |
35% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Portsmouth** to score **2.06 ** goals and **Swindon** to score **0.68 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and the home team **Portsmouth ** to win by **1.38** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Portsmouth** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Swindon** to score **0.99 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and the home team **Portsmouth ** to win by **0.43** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.58 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.82 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.58 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.85 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |