2021 02 09 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Rochdale vs Milton Keynes Dons at 09 February 2021
Accrington vs Plymouth at 09 February 2021
Shrewsbury vs Sunderland at 09 February 2021
Portsmouth vs Swindon at 09 February 2021
Peterboro vs Ipswich at 09 February 2021
Northampton vs Wigan at 09 February 2021
Hull vs Lincoln at 09 February 2021
Fleetwood Town vs Doncaster at 09 February 2021
Bristol Rvs vs Oxford at 09 February 2021
Blackpool vs Burton at 09 February 2021


Rochdale vs Milton Keynes Dons at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rochdale and Milton Keynes Dons for League One (England), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rochdale

3.84

2.72

10.7

Draw

3.72

3.64

0.6

Milton Keynes Dons

1.89

2.80

-17.2

Over 2.5

1.77

2.08

-8.4

Under 2.5

2.07

1.92

3.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Rochdale, Draw, Under 2.5 (10.7 %, 0.6 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rochdale in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rochdale in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rochdale’s performance at home.
Rochdale, at home, had one win, 6 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 23.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rochdale scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rochdale was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Charlton

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Bristol Rvs

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Oxford

H

3

4

L

O

G

23 Jan

Gillingham

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Jan

Doncaster

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Wigan

H

3

3

D

O

G

12 Jan

Charlton

A

4

4

D

O

G

09 Jan

Crewe

H

3

3

D

O

G


Milton Keynes Dons in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milton Keynes Dons in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milton Keynes Dons’s performance as a guest.
Milton Keynes Dons, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Milton Keynes Dons scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milton Keynes Dons was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Sunderland

H

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Charlton

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Jan

Fleetwood Town

H

3

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Peterboro

A

0

3

L

O

N

29 Dec

Swindon

A

4

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Bristol Rvs

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Plymouth

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rochdale and the red line for guest team, Milton Keynes Dons.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rochdale

28%

34%

23%

15%

Milton Keynes Dons

26%

37%

26%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.01 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and the guest team Milton Keynes Dons to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rochdale to score 1.26 goals and Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.82

1

5.24

2-3

2.00

2

3.89

4+

4.26

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.82

5

15.38

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

4.26

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.98

3.69

2.54

2-3 goals

2.73

3.94

2.63

4+ goals

2.47

3.09

3.67

Ov 1.5

2.64

3.62

2.89

Un 1.5

2.98

3.69

2.54

Ov 2.5

2.18

6.29

2.61

Un 2.5

3.53

2.62

2.98

Ov 3.5

2.47

3.09

3.67

Un 3.5

2.81

3.85

2.60

Goal-Goal

2.97

2.64

3.52

No Goal

2.48

6.51

2.25

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.27

5.37

2.68

NG+Un 2.5

2.67

6.51

2.25


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Accrington vs Plymouth at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Accrington and Plymouth for League One (England), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Accrington

2.28

1.96

7.2

Draw

3.37

3.88

-3.9

Plymouth

3.11

4.31

-9.0

Over 2.5

1.69

2.13

-12.2

Under 2.5

2.19

1.89

7.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Accrington, Under 2.5 (7.2 %, 7.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Accrington in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Accrington in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Accrington’s performance at home.
Accrington, at home, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Accrington scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Accrington was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Northampton

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Feb

Bristol Rvs

H

6

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Plymouth

A

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Hull

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Hull

A

0

3

L

O

N

16 Jan

Gillingham

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Jan

Charlton

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Blackpool

H

0

0

D

U

N


Plymouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Plymouth in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance as a guest.
Plymouth, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Portsmouth

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Accrington

H

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Swindon

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Sunderland

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Crewe

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Gillingham

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Oxford

H

2

3

L

O

G

26 Dec

Charlton

A

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Accrington and the red line for guest team, Plymouth.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Accrington

18%

35%

28%

19%

Plymouth

38%

35%

17%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.56 goals and Plymouth to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.82 goals in the game and the home team Accrington to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Accrington to score 1.47 goals and Plymouth to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Accrington to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.70

1

5.00

2-3

1.97

2

3.85

4+

4.46

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.70

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

2.01

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.99

3.86

4.22

2-3 goals

1.84

4.09

4.74

4+ goals

2.26

3.50

3.67

Ov 1.5

1.95

3.89

4.35

Un 1.5

1.99

3.86

4.22

Ov 2.5

1.75

7.36

3.41

Un 2.5

2.19

2.73

5.64

Ov 3.5

2.26

3.50

3.67

Un 3.5

1.89

4.01

4.54

Goal-Goal

2.57

2.68

4.20

No Goal

1.58

7.10

4.44

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.94

5.94

3.17

NG+Un 2.5

1.68

7.10

4.32


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Shrewsbury vs Sunderland at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Shrewsbury and Sunderland for League One (England), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Shrewsbury

3.63

2.87

7.3

Draw

3.13

3.86

-6.0

Sunderland

2.16

2.54

-6.9

Over 2.5

2.43

1.93

10.7

Under 2.5

1.57

2.08

-15.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (7.3 %, 10.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Shrewsbury in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance at home.
Shrewsbury, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Swindon

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Feb

Crewe

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Peterboro

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Sunderland

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Blackpool

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Wigan

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Doncaster

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Lincoln

A

1

0

W

U

N


Sunderland in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance as a guest.
Sunderland, as a guest, had 6 wins, 6 draws, no defeats and gathered 24 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Gillingham

H

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Ipswich

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Shrewsbury

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Plymouth

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

A

3

0

W

O

N

09 Jan

Hull

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Northampton

A

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Shrewsbury and the red line for guest team, Sunderland.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Shrewsbury

31%

28%

24%

17%

Sunderland

22%

38%

25%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 0.88 goals and Sunderland to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and the guest team Sunderland to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.27 goals and Sunderland to score 1.34 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

4.07

1

5.62

2-3

2.08

2

4.27

4+

3.65

3

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.33

4

5.95

Un 1.5

4.07

5

12.66

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

37.04

Un 2.5

2.08

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.65

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.38

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.03

3.62

2.10

2-3 goals

2.64

4.57

2.49

4+ goals

2.61

3.15

3.34

Ov 1.5

2.63

3.93

2.74

Un 1.5

4.03

3.62

2.10

Ov 2.5

2.22

5.98

2.61

Un 2.5

4.21

2.77

2.49

Ov 3.5

2.61

3.15

3.34

Un 3.5

2.99

4.20

2.34

Goal-Goal

2.74

2.81

3.59

No Goal

3.05

6.78

1.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.20

4.99

2.89

NG+Un 2.5

3.29

6.78

1.94


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Portsmouth vs Swindon at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Portsmouth and Swindon for League One (England), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Portsmouth

1.46

2.05

-19.7

Draw

4.49

3.76

4.3

Swindon

6.62

4.07

9.5

Over 2.5

1.74

2.18

-11.6

Under 2.5

2.11

1.85

6.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Swindon, Under 2.5 (4.3 %, 9.5 %, 6.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Portsmouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portsmouth in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Portsmouth’s performance at home.
Portsmouth, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Portsmouth scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portsmouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Plymouth

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Feb

Charlton

A

3

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Lincoln

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Hull

H

0

4

L

O

N

19 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

H

4

0

W

O

N

16 Jan

Fleetwood Town

A

1

0

W

U

N

18 Dec

Hull

A

2

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Fleetwood Town

H

0

0

D

U

N


Swindon in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swindon in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Swindon’s performance as a guest.
Swindon, as a guest, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Swindon scored in 9 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swindon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Feb

Wigan

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Hull

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Plymouth

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Charlton

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Jan

Doncaster

H

1

2

L

O

G

09 Jan

Ipswich

A

3

2

W

O

G

29 Dec

Milton Keynes Dons

H

1

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Portsmouth and the red line for guest team, Swindon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Portsmouth

19%

37%

26%

18%

Swindon

37%

35%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 2.06 goals and Swindon to score 0.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 1.38 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Portsmouth to score 1.42 goals and Swindon to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Portsmouth to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.58

1

4.83

2-3

1.98

2

3.82

4+

4.61

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.58

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.85

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals