# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Bolton vs Morecambe at 09 February 2021**** Carlisle vs Leyton Orient at 09 February 2021**** Harrogate vs Cheltenham at 09 February 2021**** Newport County vs Southend at 09 February 2021**** Salford vs Cambridge at 09 February 2021**** Scunthorpe vs Bradford at 09 February 2021**** Tranmere vs Stevenage at 09 February 2021**** Walsall vs Mansfield at 09 February 2021**** Barrow vs Exeter at 09 February 2021**

###
Bolton vs Morecambe at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bolton** and **Morecambe** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **09 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bolton |
2.11 |
2.42 |
-6.1 |

Draw |
3.38 |
3.60 |
-1.8 |

Morecambe |
3.44 |
3.25 |
1.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.87 |
2.21 |
-8.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.93 |
1.83 |
2.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Morecambe, Under 2.5 (1.7 %, 2.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bolton** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bolton** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance** at home**.

Bolton,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Bolton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Cheltenham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

12 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Crawley Town |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Carlisle |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Morecambe** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Morecambe** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance** as a guest**.

Morecambe,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 51.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Morecambe scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Stevenage |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Colchester |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Jan |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Colchester |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bolton** and the red line for guest team, **Morecambe. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bolton |
25% |
37% |
22% |
16% |

Morecambe |
32% |
37% |
21% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bolton** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Morecambe** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and the home team **Bolton ** to win by **0.45** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bolton** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Morecambe** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.19** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.66 |
0-1 |
3.46 |

1 |
4.76 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.61 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.46 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.83 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |

NoG |
2.05 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.43 |
3.66 |
3.18 |

2-3 goals |
2.44 |
3.60 |
3.20 |

4+ goals |
2.36 |
3.50 |
3.44 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.41 |
3.57 |
3.27 |

Un 1.5 |
2.43 |
3.66 |
3.18 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
7.29 |
2.72 |

Un 2.5 |
2.89 |
2.53 |
3.85 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.36 |
3.50 |
3.44 |

Un 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.62 |
3.19 |

Goal-Goal |
2.97 |
2.57 |
3.65 |

No Goal |
2.02 |
6.18 |
2.90 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
6.03 |
2.67 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.17 |
6.18 |
2.89 |

####
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###
Carlisle vs Leyton Orient at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Carlisle** and **Leyton Orient** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **09 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Carlisle |
1.78 |
2.25 |
-11.7 |

Draw |
3.78 |
3.66 |
0.9 |

Leyton Orient |
4.44 |
3.55 |
5.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.14 |
-5.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
1.88 |
0.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Leyton Orient, Under 2.5 (0.9 %, 5.6 %, 0.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **increases slightly, 0.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Carlisle** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Carlisle** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance** at home**.

Carlisle,** at home**, had 9 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Carlisle** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

02 Feb |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Exeter |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Leyton Orient** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

More recently, **Leyton Orient** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient** didn’t score to any of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance** as a guest**.

Leyton Orient,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Crawley Town |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Salford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Southend |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Carlisle** and the red line for guest team, **Leyton Orient. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Carlisle |
22% |
36% |
23% |
18% |

Leyton Orient |
33% |
37% |
20% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.68 ** goals and **Leyton Orient** to score **0.86 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.54** goals in the game and the home team **Carlisle ** to win by **0.82** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Carlisle** to score **1.37 ** goals and **Leyton Orient** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.44** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.3** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.64 |

1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.41 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.64 |

5 |
16.95 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.13 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.92 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |

NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.31 |
3.77 |
3.31 |

2-3 goals |
2.24 |
3.69 |
3.53 |

4+ goals |
2.16 |
3.49 |
3.98 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.22 |
3.63 |
3.66 |

Un 1.5 |
2.31 |
3.77 |
3.31 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.87 |
7.22 |
3.07 |

Un 2.5 |
2.72 |
2.55 |
4.15 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.16 |
3.49 |
3.98 |

Un 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.72 |
3.45 |

Goal-Goal |
2.73 |
2.61 |
3.98 |

No Goal |
1.87 |
6.55 |
3.19 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.03 |
5.95 |
2.95 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
6.55 |
3.09 |

####
Go to Top

###
Harrogate vs Cheltenham at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Harrogate** and **Cheltenham** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **09 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Harrogate |
2.98 |
3.01 |
-0.3 |

Draw |
3.23 |
3.66 |
-3.6 |

Cheltenham |
2.40 |
2.54 |
-2.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.00 |
2.14 |
-3.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.88 |
-1.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Harrogate** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Harrogate** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance** at home**.

Harrogate,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Harrogate scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Crawley Town |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Salford |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Exeter |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Cheltenham** in the **last six** matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cheltenham** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance** as a guest**.

Cheltenham,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Forest Green |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Oldham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Jan |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

29 Dec |
Colchester |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Stevenage |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

15 Dec |
Bolton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Harrogate** and the red line for guest team, **Cheltenham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Harrogate |
31% |
33% |
23% |
12% |

Cheltenham |
26% |
36% |
24% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Harrogate** to score **1.13 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Harrogate** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Cheltenham** to score **1.27 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.43** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.58 |

1 |
5.05 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.41 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.58 |

5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.88 |

Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.41 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.24 |
3.44 |
2.49 |

2-3 goals |
2.85 |
4.11 |
2.46 |

4+ goals |
3.11 |
3.11 |
2.80 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.93 |
3.73 |
2.56 |

Un 1.5 |
3.24 |
3.44 |
2.49 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.49 |
6.38 |
2.26 |

Un 2.5 |
3.68 |
2.65 |
2.85 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.11 |
3.11 |
2.80 |

Un 3.5 |
2.98 |
3.84 |
2.47 |

Goal-Goal |
3.27 |
2.64 |
3.17 |

No Goal |
2.78 |
6.04 |
2.11 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.50 |
5.34 |
2.42 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.85 |
6.04 |
2.21 |

####
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###
Newport County vs Southend at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Newport County** and **Southend** for **League Two (England)**, which will take place on **09 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Newport County |
1.63 |
1.98 |
-10.8 |

Draw |
3.76 |
3.95 |
-1.3 |

Southend |
5.69 |
4.15 |
6.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
1.92 |
5.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.71 |
2.09 |
-10.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Southend, Over 2.5 (6.5 %, 5.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Newport County** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Newport County** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance** at home**.

Newport County,** at home**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 78.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Newport County scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

16 Jan |
Salford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Crawley Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Oldham |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Dec |
Salford |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Southend** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Southend** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance** as a guest**.

Southend,** as a guest**, had one win, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 19.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Southend scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Port Vale |
A |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Bradford |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Mansfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Cambridge |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Barrow |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Colchester |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Newport County** and the red line for guest team, **Southend. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Newport County |
19% |
30% |
30% |
22% |

Southend |
33% |
37% |
21% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.64 ** goals and **Southend** to score **0.68 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.32** goals in the game and the home team **Newport County ** to win by **0.96** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Newport County** to score **1.55 ** goals and **Southend** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.61** goals in the game and the home team **Newport County ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.87 |
0-1 |
4.33 |

1 |
5.95 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
3.85 |

3 |
3.85 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.30 |

4 |
5.95 |
Un 1.5 |
4.33 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.09 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.85 |

NoG |
2.18 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.33 |
3.67 |
3.35 |

2-3 goals |