2021 02 09 League Two (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bolton vs Morecambe at 09 February 2021
Carlisle vs Leyton Orient at 09 February 2021
Harrogate vs Cheltenham at 09 February 2021
Newport County vs Southend at 09 February 2021
Salford vs Cambridge at 09 February 2021
Scunthorpe vs Bradford at 09 February 2021
Tranmere vs Stevenage at 09 February 2021
Walsall vs Mansfield at 09 February 2021
Barrow vs Exeter at 09 February 2021


Bolton vs Morecambe at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bolton and Morecambe for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bolton

2.11

2.42

-6.1

Draw

3.38

3.60

-1.8

Morecambe

3.44

3.25

1.7

Over 2.5

1.87

2.21

-8.2

Under 2.5

1.93

1.83

2.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Morecambe, Under 2.5 (1.7 %, 2.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bolton in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bolton in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bolton’s performance at home.
Bolton, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Bolton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bolton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Leyton Orient

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Tranmere

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Cheltenham

H

1

1

D

U

G

12 Jan

Exeter

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Crawley Town

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Dec

Carlisle

A

3

3

D

O

G

19 Dec

Tranmere

H

0

3

L

O

N

15 Dec

Cheltenham

A

1

0

W

U

N


Morecambe in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Morecambe in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance as a guest.
Morecambe, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 51.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Stevenage

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Tranmere

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Exeter

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Colchester

H

3

0

W

O

N

19 Jan

Walsall

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Jan

Leyton Orient

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Dec

Grimsby

H

3

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Colchester

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bolton and the red line for guest team, Morecambe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bolton

25%

37%

22%

16%

Morecambe

32%

37%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bolton to score 1.51 goals and Morecambe to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Bolton to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bolton to score 1.29 goals and Morecambe to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.66

0-1

3.46

1

4.76

2-3

2.03

2

3.88

4+

4.61

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.41

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.46

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.21

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.83

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.61

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.43

3.66

3.18

2-3 goals

2.44

3.60

3.20

4+ goals

2.36

3.50

3.44

Ov 1.5

2.41

3.57

3.27

Un 1.5

2.43

3.66

3.18

Ov 2.5

2.02

7.29

2.72

Un 2.5

2.89

2.53

3.85

Ov 3.5

2.36

3.50

3.44

Un 3.5

2.44

3.62

3.19

Goal-Goal

2.97

2.57

3.65

No Goal

2.02

6.18

2.90

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.17

6.03

2.67

NG+Un 2.5

2.17

6.18

2.89


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Carlisle vs Leyton Orient at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Carlisle and Leyton Orient for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Carlisle

1.78

2.25

-11.7

Draw

3.78

3.66

0.9

Leyton Orient

4.44

3.55

5.6

Over 2.5

1.90

2.14

-5.9

Under 2.5

1.90

1.88

0.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Leyton Orient, Under 2.5 (0.9 %, 5.6 %, 0.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Carlisle in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Carlisle in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Carlisle’s performance at home.
Carlisle, at home, had 9 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Carlisle scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Carlisle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

02 Feb

Forest Green

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Exeter

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Walsall

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Bolton

H

3

3

D

O

G

19 Dec

Forest Green

A

0

1

L

U

N

15 Dec

Mansfield

H

1

0

W

U

N

12 Dec

Stevenage

H

4

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Bradford

A

1

0

W

U

N


Leyton Orient in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Leyton Orient in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance as a guest.
Leyton Orient, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Colchester

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Feb

Crawley Town

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Bolton

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Forest Green

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Morecambe

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Salford

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Southend

H

2

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Cambridge

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Carlisle and the red line for guest team, Leyton Orient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Carlisle

22%

36%

23%

18%

Leyton Orient

33%

37%

20%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.68 goals and Leyton Orient to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Carlisle to win by 0.82 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Carlisle to score 1.37 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.44 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.64

1

4.95

2-3

2.01

2

3.91

4+

4.41

3

4.13

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.64

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.31

3.77

3.31

2-3 goals

2.24

3.69

3.53

4+ goals

2.16

3.49

3.98

Ov 1.5

2.22

3.63

3.66

Un 1.5

2.31

3.77

3.31

Ov 2.5

1.87

7.22

3.07

Un 2.5

2.72

2.55

4.15

Ov 3.5

2.16

3.49

3.98

Un 3.5

2.27

3.72

3.45

Goal-Goal

2.73

2.61

3.98

No Goal

1.87

6.55

3.19

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.03

5.95

2.95

NG+Un 2.5

2.03

6.55

3.09


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Harrogate vs Cheltenham at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Harrogate and Cheltenham for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Harrogate

2.98

3.01

-0.3

Draw

3.23

3.66

-3.6

Cheltenham

2.40

2.54

-2.3

Over 2.5

2.00

2.14

-3.3

Under 2.5

1.82

1.88

-1.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Harrogate in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance at home.
Harrogate, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Crawley Town

A

3

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Newport County

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Tranmere

A

2

3

L

O

G

22 Jan

Salford

A

2

2

D

O

G

19 Jan

Exeter

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Cambridge

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Oldham

A

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Salford

H

0

1

L

U

N


Cheltenham in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cheltenham in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Cheltenham’s performance as a guest.
Cheltenham, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cheltenham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cheltenham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Forest Green

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Jan

Oldham

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Newport County

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Jan

Bolton

A

1

1

D

U

G

29 Dec

Colchester

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Stevenage

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Barrow

A

0

3

L

O

N

15 Dec

Bolton

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Harrogate and the red line for guest team, Cheltenham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Harrogate

31%

33%

23%

12%

Cheltenham

26%

36%

24%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.13 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.16 goals and Cheltenham to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.35

0-1

3.58

1

5.05

2-3

2.03

2

3.94

4+

4.41

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.58

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.15

6+

55.56

Un 2.5

1.88

Gg

1.96

Ov 3.5

4.41

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.24

3.44

2.49

2-3 goals

2.85

4.11

2.46

4+ goals

3.11

3.11

2.80

Ov 1.5

2.93

3.73

2.56

Un 1.5

3.24

3.44

2.49

Ov 2.5

2.49

6.38

2.26

Un 2.5

3.68

2.65

2.85

Ov 3.5

3.11

3.11

2.80

Un 3.5

2.98

3.84

2.47

Goal-Goal

3.27

2.64

3.17

No Goal

2.78

6.04

2.11

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.50

5.34

2.42

NG+Un 2.5

2.85

6.04

2.21


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Newport County vs Southend at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Newport County and Southend for League Two (England), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Newport County

1.63

1.98

-10.8

Draw

3.76

3.95

-1.3

Southend

5.69

4.15

6.5

Over 2.5

2.15

1.92

5.6

Under 2.5

1.71

2.09

-10.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Southend, Over 2.5 (6.5 %, 5.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Newport County in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newport County in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance at home.
Newport County, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 78.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newport County was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Grimsby

H

1

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Harrogate

A

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

Oldham

A

2

3

L

O

G

19 Jan

Cheltenham

A

1

1

D

U

G

16 Jan

Salford

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Crawley Town

A

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Oldham

H

2

4

L

O

G

15 Dec

Salford

A

1

1

D

U

G


Southend in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Southend in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Southend’s performance as a guest.
Southend, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 19.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Southend scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Southend was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Port Vale

A

1

5

L

O

G

26 Jan

Bradford

H

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Mansfield

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Jan

Cambridge

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Grimsby

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Barrow

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Leyton Orient

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Dec

Colchester

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Newport County and the red line for guest team, Southend.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Newport County

19%

30%

30%

22%

Southend

33%

37%

21%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.64 goals and Southend to score 0.68 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Newport County to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Newport County to score 1.55 goals and Southend to score 1.06 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.61 goals in the game and the home team Newport County to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.87

0-1

4.33

1

5.95

2-3

1.97

2

4.05

4+

3.85

3

3.85

Ov 1.5

1.30

4

5.95

Un 1.5

4.33

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.92

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.09

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.85

NoG

2.18

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.33

3.67

3.35

2-3 goals