# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Boavista vs Nacional at 09 February 2021**** Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense at 09 February 2021**** Rio Ave vs Tondela at 09 February 2021**** Gil Vicente vs Sp Lisbon at 10 February 2021**

###
Boavista vs Nacional at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Boavista** and **Nacional** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **09 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Boavista |
2.30 |
2.43 |
-2.3 |

Draw |
3.10 |
3.61 |
-4.6 |

Nacional |
3.17 |
3.19 |
-0.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.28 |
2.09 |
4.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.92 |
-9.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Over 2.5 (4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Boavista** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Boavista** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance** at home**.

Boavista,** at home**, had one win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Portimonense |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Tondela |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Jan |
Maritimo |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Sp Braga |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Nacional** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Nacional** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance** as a guest**.

Nacional,** as a guest**, had one win, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 25.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Nacional scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Nacional was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Feb |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Famalicao |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

25 Jan |
Benfica |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

21 Jan |
Guimaraes |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Moreirense |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Jan |
Sp Lisbon |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Porto |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Boavista** and the red line for guest team, **Nacional. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Boavista |
25% |
34% |
23% |
18% |

Nacional |
28% |
45% |
12% |
16% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Boavista** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Nacional** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.21** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.25** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Boavista** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Nacional** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.29 |
0-1 |
3.61 |

1 |
4.83 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.08 |
4+ |
4.07 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.61 |

5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
1.85 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.07 |

NoG |
2.17 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.95 |
3.96 |
2.45 |

2-3 goals |
2.22 |
3.17 |
4.27 |

4+ goals |
2.41 |
4.47 |
2.76 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.28 |
3.51 |
3.60 |

Un 1.5 |
2.95 |
3.96 |
2.45 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |
8.71 |
2.82 |

Un 2.5 |
3.32 |
2.36 |
3.62 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.41 |
4.47 |
2.76 |

Un 3.5 |
2.44 |
3.42 |
3.36 |

Goal-Goal |
2.65 |
2.62 |
4.15 |

No Goal |
2.23 |
6.59 |
2.51 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
7.07 |
2.99 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.36 |
6.59 |
2.58 |

####
Go to Top

###
Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Pacos Ferreira** and **Portimonense** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **09 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Pacos Ferreira |
2.09 |
1.54 |
17.1 |

Draw |
3.20 |
4.67 |
-9.8 |

Portimonense |
3.66 |
7.25 |
-13.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.34 |
2.04 |
6.3 |

Under 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.96 |
-11.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Pacos Ferreira, Over 2.5 (17.1 %, 6.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Pacos Ferreira** in the **last six** matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pacos Ferreira** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance** at home**.

Pacos Ferreira,** at home**, had 6 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 79.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Feb |
Tondela |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Gil Vicente |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Maritimo |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Belenenses |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Rio Ave |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Farense |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Boavista |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Portimonense** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Portimonense** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance** as a guest**.

Portimonense,** as a guest**, had one win, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 14.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Portimonense scored in 5 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

04 Feb |
Sp Braga |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Boavista |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Moreirense |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

18 Jan |
Belenenses |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Jan |
Rio Ave |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Jan |
Farense |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Benfica |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Famalicao |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Pacos Ferreira** and the red line for guest team, **Portimonense. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Pacos Ferreira |
14% |
30% |
28% |
29% |

Portimonense |
50% |
30% |
16% |
4% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Portimonense** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.19** goals in the game and the home team **Pacos Ferreira ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Pacos Ferreira** to score **1.72 ** goals and **Portimonense** to score **0.74 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Pacos Ferreira ** to win by **0.98** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.86 |

1 |
5.24 |
2-3 |
1.89 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.74 |

3 |
3.57 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.99 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.96 |

Gg |
2.31 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.74 |

NoG |
1.76 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.73 |
3.81 |
6.32 |

2-3 goals |
1.45 |
5.82 |
7.26 |

4+ goals |
1.59 |
3.84 |
9.17 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.48 |
5.08 |
7.72 |

Un 1.5 |
1.73 |
3.81 |
6.32 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.36 |
8.93 |
6.55 |

Un 2.5 |
1.77 |
3.20 |
8.21 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.59 |
3.84 |
9.17 |

Un 3.5 |
1.53 |
4.96 |
6.92 |

Goal-Goal |
2.00 |
2.97 |
6.19 |

No Goal |
1.31 |
8.34 |
8.46 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
6.22 |
4.89 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.45 |
8.34 |
6.74 |

####
Go to Top

###
Rio Ave vs Tondela at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Rio Ave** and **Tondela** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **09 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Rio Ave |
1.89 |
1.95 |
-1.6 |

Draw |
3.37 |
3.83 |
-3.6 |

Tondela |
4.17 |
4.44 |
-1.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.22 |
2.29 |
-1.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.66 |
1.78 |
-4.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Rio Ave** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Rio Ave** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance** at home**.

Rio Ave,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Feb |
Nacional |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Porto |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Santa Clara |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

15 Jan |
Sp Lisbon |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Jan |
Portimonense |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Jan |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Maritimo |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Tondela** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tondela** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance** as a guest**.

Tondela,** as a guest**, had no wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 4.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Tondela scored in 4 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Farense |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Belenenses |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Boavista |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

08 Jan |
Benfica |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Famalicao |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Nacional |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Moreirense |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Rio Ave** and the red line for guest team, **Tondela. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Rio Ave |
23% |
33% |
24% |
20% |

Tondela |
43% |
34% |
17% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Rio Ave** to score **1.44 ** goals and **Tondela** to score **0.82 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.26** goals in the game and the home team **Rio Ave ** to win by **0.62** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Rio Ave** to score **1.42 ** goals and **Tondela** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and the home team **Rio Ave ** to win by **0.54** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.31 |
0-1 |
3.21 |

1 |
4.65 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
5.05 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.45 |

4 |
7.52 |
Un 1.5 |
3.21 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.29 |

6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.78 |

Gg |
2.25 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.05 |

NoG |
1.80 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.24 |
3.22 |
4.11 |

2-3 goals |
1.81 |
4.45 |
4.50 |

4+ goals |
1.92 |
3.60 |
4.95 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.84 |
4.17 |
4.62 |

Un 1.5 |
2.24 |
3.22 |
4.11 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.61 |
7.95 |
3.94 |

Un 2.5 |
2.33 |
2.72 |
4.94 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.92 |
3.60 |
4.95 |

Un 3.5 |
1.96 |
3.87 |
4.34 |

Goal-Goal |
2.41 |
2.69 |
4.67 |

No Goal |
1.69 |
5.73 |
4.28 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
6.07 |
3.52 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.87 |
5.73 |
3.97 |

####
Go to Top

###
Gil Vicente vs Sp Lisbon at 10 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Gil Vicente** and **Sp Lisbon** for **Primeira Liga (Portugal)**, which will take place on **10 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Gil Vicente |
6.41 |
5.29 |
3.3 |

Draw |
3.78 |
4.10 |
-2.1 |

Sp Lisbon |
1.55 |
1.76 |
-7.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.10 |
2.02 |
1.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.98 |
-6.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Gil Vicente, Over 2.5 (3.3 %, 1.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases slightly, -1.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Gil Vicente** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Gil Vicente** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance** at home**.

Gil Vicente,** at home**, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Feb |
Boavista |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Pacos Ferreira |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Sp Braga |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Maritimo |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Farense |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

04 Jan |
Belenenses |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Famalicao |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Benfica |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Sp Lisbon** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sp Lisbon** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance** as a guest**.

Sp Lisbon,** as a guest**, had 8 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 25 points, 92.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Sp Lisbon** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Feb |
Maritimo |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Benfica |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Boavista |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Jan |
Rio Ave |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

08 Jan |
Nacional |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Sp Braga |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Belenenses |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Farense |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Gil Vicente** and the red line for guest team, **Sp Lisbon. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Gil Vicente |
40% |
38% |
15% |
6% |

Sp Lisbon |
18% |
31% |
21% |
29% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Gil Vicente** to score **0.64 ** goals and **Sp Lisbon** to score **1.72 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and the guest team **Sp Lisbon ** to win by **1.08** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Gil Vicente** to score **0.87 ** goals and **Sp Lisbon** to score **1.61 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the guest team **Sp Lisbon ** to win by **0.74** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.69 |

1 |
5.08 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.29 |
4+ |
4.22 |

3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.69 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
2.06 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.22 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.87 |
3.66 |