2021 02 09 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Boavista vs Nacional at 09 February 2021
Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense at 09 February 2021
Rio Ave vs Tondela at 09 February 2021
Gil Vicente vs Sp Lisbon at 10 February 2021


Boavista vs Nacional at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Boavista and Nacional for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Boavista

2.30

2.43

-2.3

Draw

3.10

3.61

-4.6

Nacional

3.17

3.19

-0.2

Over 2.5

2.28

2.09

4.0

Under 2.5

1.62

1.92

-9.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Boavista in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boavista in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance at home.
Boavista, at home, had one win, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 20.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Feb

Gil Vicente

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Portimonense

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Sp Lisbon

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Tondela

A

1

3

L

O

G

09 Jan

Santa Clara

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Jan

Maritimo

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Dec

Sp Braga

H

1

4

L

O

G

20 Dec

Pacos Ferreira

A

1

1

D

U

G


Nacional in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nacional in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance as a guest.
Nacional, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nacional was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Feb

Rio Ave

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Famalicao

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Jan

Benfica

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Jan

Guimaraes

A

1

3

L

O

G

17 Jan

Moreirense

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Jan

Sp Lisbon

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Dec

Tondela

H

2

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Porto

A

0

2

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Boavista and the red line for guest team, Nacional.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Boavista

25%

34%

23%

18%

Nacional

28%

45%

12%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.23 goals and Nacional to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.21 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.33 goals and Nacional to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.61

1

4.83

2-3

2.09

2

4.08

4+

4.07

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.25

Un 1.5

3.61

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

4.07

NoG

2.17

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.95

3.96

2.45

2-3 goals

2.22

3.17

4.27

4+ goals

2.41

4.47

2.76

Ov 1.5

2.28

3.51

3.60

Un 1.5

2.95

3.96

2.45

Ov 2.5

1.89

8.71

2.82

Un 2.5

3.32

2.36

3.62

Ov 3.5

2.41

4.47

2.76

Un 3.5

2.44

3.42

3.36

Goal-Goal

2.65

2.62

4.15

No Goal

2.23

6.59

2.51

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

7.07

2.99

NG+Un 2.5

2.36

6.59

2.58


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pacos Ferreira

2.09

1.54

17.1

Draw

3.20

4.67

-9.8

Portimonense

3.66

7.25

-13.5

Over 2.5

2.34

2.04

6.3

Under 2.5

1.61

1.96

-11.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pacos Ferreira, Over 2.5 (17.1 %, 6.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pacos Ferreira in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pacos Ferreira in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pacos Ferreira’s performance at home.
Pacos Ferreira, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 79.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pacos Ferreira scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pacos Ferreira was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Feb

Tondela

H

2

1

W

O

G

02 Feb

Gil Vicente

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Maritimo

A

3

0

W

O

N

16 Jan

Sp Braga

H

2

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Belenenses

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Jan

Rio Ave

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Dec

Farense

A

1

1

D

U

G

20 Dec

Boavista

H

1

1

D

U

G


Portimonense in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Portimonense in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Portimonense’s performance as a guest.
Portimonense, as a guest, had one win, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 14.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Portimonense scored in 5 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Portimonense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

04 Feb

Sp Braga

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Boavista

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Jan

Moreirense

A

2

2

D

O

G

18 Jan

Belenenses

H

1

0

W

U

N

08 Jan

Rio Ave

A

0

3

L

O

N

04 Jan

Farense

H

2

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Benfica

A

1

2

L

O

G

18 Dec

Famalicao

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pacos Ferreira and the red line for guest team, Portimonense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pacos Ferreira

14%

30%

28%

29%

Portimonense

50%

30%

16%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.3 goals and Portimonense to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and the home team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.72 goals and Portimonense to score 0.74 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Pacos Ferreira to win by 0.98 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.86

1

5.24

2-3

1.89

2

4.00

4+

4.74

3

3.57

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.86

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

2.31

Ov 3.5

4.74

NoG

1.76

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.73

3.81

6.32

2-3 goals

1.45

5.82

7.26

4+ goals

1.59

3.84

9.17

Ov 1.5

1.48

5.08

7.72

Un 1.5

1.73

3.81

6.32

Ov 2.5

1.36

8.93

6.55

Un 2.5

1.77

3.20

8.21

Ov 3.5

1.59

3.84

9.17

Un 3.5

1.53

4.96

6.92

Goal-Goal

2.00

2.97

6.19

No Goal

1.31

8.34

8.46

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.58

6.22

4.89

NG+Un 2.5

1.45

8.34

6.74


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Rio Ave vs Tondela at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Rio Ave and Tondela for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Rio Ave

1.89

1.95

-1.6

Draw

3.37

3.83

-3.6

Tondela

4.17

4.44

-1.5

Over 2.5

2.22

2.29

-1.4

Under 2.5

1.66

1.78

-4.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Rio Ave in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rio Ave in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance at home.
Rio Ave, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Feb

Nacional

H

0

0

D

U

N

01 Feb

Porto

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Jan

Santa Clara

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Jan

Sp Lisbon

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Jan

Portimonense

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Jan

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Dec

Maritimo

H

1

3

L

O

G

22 Dec

Sp Braga

A

0

3

L

O

N


Tondela in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tondela in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tondela’s performance as a guest.
Tondela, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 4.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tondela scored in 4 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tondela was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Farense

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Jan

Belenenses

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Boavista

H

3

1

W

O

G

08 Jan

Benfica

A

0

2

L

U

N

03 Jan

Famalicao

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Dec

Nacional

A

0

2

L

U

N

19 Dec

Moreirense

H

0

0

D

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Rio Ave and the red line for guest team, Tondela.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Rio Ave

23%

33%

24%

20%

Tondela

43%

34%

17%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Rio Ave to score 1.44 goals and Tondela to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Rio Ave to win by 0.62 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Rio Ave to score 1.42 goals and Tondela to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the home team Rio Ave to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.31

0-1

3.21

1

4.65

2-3

2.04

2

3.98

4+

5.05

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.45

4

7.52

Un 1.5

3.21

5

19.61

Ov 2.5

2.29

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.78

Gg

2.25

Ov 3.5

5.05

NoG

1.80

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.24

3.22

4.11

2-3 goals

1.81

4.45

4.50

4+ goals

1.92

3.60

4.95

Ov 1.5

1.84

4.17

4.62

Un 1.5

2.24

3.22

4.11

Ov 2.5

1.61

7.95

3.94

Un 2.5

2.33

2.72

4.94

Ov 3.5

1.92

3.60

4.95

Un 3.5

1.96

3.87

4.34

Goal-Goal

2.41

2.69

4.67

No Goal

1.69

5.73

4.28

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.82

6.07

3.52

NG+Un 2.5

1.87

5.73

3.97


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Gil Vicente vs Sp Lisbon at 10 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Gil Vicente and Sp Lisbon for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 10 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Gil Vicente

6.41

5.29

3.3

Draw

3.78

4.10

-2.1

Sp Lisbon

1.55

1.76

-7.7

Over 2.5

2.10

2.02

1.9

Under 2.5

1.75

1.98

-6.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Gil Vicente, Over 2.5 (3.3 %, 1.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Gil Vicente in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Gil Vicente in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Gil Vicente’s performance at home.
Gil Vicente, at home, had 2 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Gil Vicente scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Gil Vicente was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Feb

Boavista

A

2

1

W

O

G

02 Feb

Pacos Ferreira

H

1

2

L

O

G

26 Jan

Sp Braga

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

Maritimo

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Farense

A

1

3

L

O

G

04 Jan

Belenenses

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Dec

Famalicao

A

1

0

W

U

N

20 Dec

Benfica

H

0

2

L

U

N


Sp Lisbon in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sp Lisbon in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sp Lisbon’s performance as a guest.
Sp Lisbon, as a guest, had 8 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 25 points, 92.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sp Lisbon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sp Lisbon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Feb

Maritimo

A

2

0

W

U

N

01 Feb

Benfica

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Boavista

A

2

0

W

U

N

15 Jan

Rio Ave

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Jan

Nacional

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Sp Braga

H

2

0

W

U

N

27 Dec

Belenenses

A

2

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Farense

H

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Gil Vicente and the red line for guest team, Sp Lisbon.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Gil Vicente

40%

38%

15%

6%

Sp Lisbon

18%

31%

21%

29%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 0.64 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.08 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 0.87 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.61 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 0.74 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.69

1

5.08

2-3

2.04

2

4.29

4+

4.22

3

3.88

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.13

Un 1.5

3.69

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

2.06

Ov 3.5

4.22

NoG

1.95

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.87

3.66