2021 02 09 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Venezia vs Cremonese at 09 February 2021
Spal vs Pordenone at 09 February 2021
Pisa vs Salernitana at 09 February 2021
Lecce vs Brescia at 09 February 2021
Cittadella vs Cosenza at 09 February 2021
Ascoli vs Frosinone at 09 February 2021
Empoli vs Pescara at 09 February 2021
Chievo vs Reggiana at 10 February 2021


Venezia vs Cremonese at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Venezia and Cremonese for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Venezia

2.26

2.16

2.0

Draw

2.89

3.61

-6.9

Cremonese

3.59

3.86

-1.9

Over 2.5

2.27

2.31

-0.8

Under 2.5

1.64

1.76

-4.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Venezia (2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Venezia in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance at home.
Venezia, at home, had 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Frosinone

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Jan

Vicenza

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Pordenone

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Jan

Pisa

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Dec

Chievo

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Dec

Salernitana

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Dec

Cosenza

A

0

0

D

U

N


Cremonese in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cremonese in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Cremonese’s performance as a guest.
Cremonese, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Cremonese scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cremonese was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Pisa

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Cittadella

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Spal

H

1

1

D

U

G

17 Jan

Pescara

A

2

0

W

U

N

04 Jan

Chievo

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Dec

Reggina

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Dec

Monza

H

0

2

L

U

N

22 Dec

Pordenone

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Venezia and the red line for guest team, Cremonese.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Venezia

21%

40%

21%

17%

Cremonese

37%

36%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.29 goals and Cremonese to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team Venezia to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Venezia to score 1.34 goals and Cremonese to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and the home team Venezia to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.27

1

4.42

2-3

2.03

2

3.83

4+

5.00

3

4.31

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.41

Un 1.5

3.27

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.31

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.76

Gg

2.03

Ov 3.5

5.00

NoG

1.98

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.05

3.82

3.97

2-3 goals

2.24

3.42

3.82

4+ goals

2.15

3.77

3.70

Ov 1.5

2.21

3.52

3.79

Un 1.5

2.05

3.82

3.97

Ov 2.5

1.85

8.15

2.98

Un 2.5

2.49

2.53

4.93

Ov 3.5

2.15

3.77

3.70

Un 3.5

2.17

3.57

3.88

Goal-Goal

2.90

2.50

3.91

No Goal

1.73

6.32

3.78

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.05

6.58

2.77

NG+Un 2.5

1.86

6.32

3.68


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Spal vs Pordenone at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Spal and Pordenone for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spal

2.25

2.19

1.2

Draw

3.05

3.41

-3.5

Pordenone

3.48

3.97

-3.5

Over 2.5

2.17

2.48

-5.8

Under 2.5

1.70

1.68

0.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spal, Under 2.5 (1.2 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spal in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spal in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Spal’s performance at home.
Spal, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 21 points, 70.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Cosenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Monza

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Cremonese

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Jan

Reggiana

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Jan

Frosinone

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Dec

Brescia

H

2

3

L

O

G

27 Dec

Ascoli

A

0

2

L

U

N

22 Dec

Lecce

H

1

0

W

U

N


Pordenone in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pordenone in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pordenone’s performance as a guest.
Pordenone, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pordenone scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pordenone was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Vicenza

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Lecce

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Jan

Cosenza

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

Venezia

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Jan

Salernitana

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Reggiana

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Dec

Frosinone

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Cremonese

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spal and the red line for guest team, Pordenone.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spal

22%

41%

20%

16%

Pordenone

36%

41%

16%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spal to score 1.32 goals and Pordenone to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and the home team Spal to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spal to score 1.3 goals and Pordenone to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Spal to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.13

1

4.18

2-3

1.99

2

3.60

4+

5.62

3

4.46

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

7.87

Un 1.5

3.13

5

25.00

Ov 2.5

2.49

6+

90.91

Un 2.5

1.68

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

5.62

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.16

3.99

3.51

2-3 goals

2.32

2.99

4.25

4+ goals

1.93

4.05

4.24

Ov 1.5

2.21

3.21

4.25

Un 1.5

2.16

3.99

3.51

Ov 2.5

1.72

9.14

3.24

Un 2.5

2.69

2.41

4.70

Ov 3.5

1.93

4.05

4.24

Un 3.5

2.26

3.31

3.93

Goal-Goal

2.82

2.34

4.56

No Goal

1.79

6.28

3.54

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.87

7.48

3.02

NG+Un 2.5

1.93

6.28

3.38


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Pisa vs Salernitana at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pisa and Salernitana for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pisa

2.41

2.11

5.9

Draw

2.98

3.77

-7.0

Salernitana

3.13

3.85

-6.0

Over 2.5

2.10

2.16

-1.3

Under 2.5

1.74

1.86

-3.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pisa (5.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pisa in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pisa in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance at home.
Pisa, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 17 points, 56.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Cremonese

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Feb

Frosinone

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Reggiana

H

1

0

W

U

N

22 Jan

Virtus Entella

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Brescia

H

1

0

W

U

N

04 Jan

Venezia

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Dec

Cosenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Chievo

H

2

2

D

O

G


Salernitana in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salernitana in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance as a guest.
Salernitana, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 40.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Chievo

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Feb

Reggina

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Pescara

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Empoli

A

0

5

L

O

N

04 Jan

Pordenone

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Dec

Monza

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Dec

Venezia

A

2

1

W

O

G

21 Dec

Virtus Entella

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pisa and the red line for guest team, Salernitana.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pisa

22%

32%

30%

16%

Salernitana

36%

36%

18%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pisa to score 1.28 goals and Salernitana to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pisa to score 1.4 goals and Salernitana to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Pisa to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.64

1

5.13

2-3

1.97

2

3.80

4+

4.63

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.99

Un 1.5

3.64

5

17.24

Ov 2.5

2.17

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.63

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.39

3.44

3.44

2-3 goals

1.87

4.42

4.20

4+ goals

2.45

3.09

3.72

Ov 1.5

2.01

3.91

4.04

Un 1.5

2.39

3.44

3.44

Ov 2.5

1.82

6.59

3.34

Un 2.5

2.42

2.76

4.45

Ov 3.5

2.45

3.09

3.72

Un 3.5

2.02

4.02

3.90

Goal-Goal

2.55

2.69

4.25

No Goal

1.79

6.28

3.54

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.96

5.46

3.26

NG+Un 2.5

1.91

6.28

3.50


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Lecce vs Brescia at 09 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lecce and Brescia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 09 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lecce

1.73

2.29

-14.1

Draw

3.68

3.82

-1.0

Brescia

4.68

3.32

8.8

Over 2.5

1.67

2.08

-11.8

Under 2.5

2.22

1.92

7.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Brescia, Under 2.5 (8.8 %, 7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lecce in the last six matches had one win, 4 draws,one defeat and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lecce in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Lecce’s performance at home.
Lecce, at home, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Lecce scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lecce was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Feb

Ascoli

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Pordenone

A

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Empoli

H

2

2

D

O

G

16 Jan

Reggina

A

1

0

W

U

N

04 Jan

Monza

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Dec

Cittadella

A

2

2

D

O

G

27 Dec

Vicenza

H

2

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Spal

A

0

1

L

U

N


Brescia in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brescia in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brescia’s performance as a guest.
Brescia, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Brescia scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brescia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Cittadella

H

3

3

D

O

G

30 Jan

Ascoli

A

1

2

L

O

G

25 Jan

Monza

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Pisa

A

0

1

L

U

N

04 Jan

Vicenza

H

0

3

L

O

N

30 Dec

Spal

A

3

2

W

O

G

27 Dec

Empoli

H

1

3

L

O

G

22 Dec

Pescara

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lecce and the red line for guest team, Brescia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lecce

22%

36%

26%

16%

Brescia

36%

29%

21%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.91 goals and Brescia to score 0.94 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.84 goals in the game and the home team Lecce to win by 0.97 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.36 goals and Brescia to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.64

1

5.13

2-3

2.06

2

4.08

4+

4.17

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.67

Un 1.5

3.64

5

14.71

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.17

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.13

3.44