Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
RB Leipzig vs Augsburg at 12 February 2021
Dortmund vs Hoffenheim at 13 February 2021
Leverkusen vs Mainz at 13 February 2021
Stuttgart vs Hertha at 13 February 2021
Union Berlin vs Schalke 04 at 13 February 2021
Werder Bremen vs Freiburg at 13 February 2021
Ein Frankfurt vs FC Koln at 14 February 2021
Wolfsburg vs M’gladbach at 14 February 2021
Bayern Munich vs Bielefeld at 15 February 2021
RB Leipzig vs Augsburg at 12 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between RB Leipzig and Augsburg for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 12 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
RB Leipzig |
1.27 |
1.68 |
-19.2 |
|
Draw |
5.98 |
4.33 |
6.4 |
|
Augsburg |
11.43 |
5.71 |
8.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.77 |
-5.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.30 |
1.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Augsburg, Under 2.5 (6.4 %, 8.8 %, 1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
RB Leipzig in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, RB Leipzig in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at RB Leipzig’s performance at home.
RB Leipzig, at home, had 8 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 25 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of RB Leipzig was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Schalke 04 |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Leverkusen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Mainz |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Jan |
Union Berlin |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Dortmund |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Stuttgart |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
FC Koln |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Augsburg in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Augsburg in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Augsburg’s performance as a guest.
Augsburg, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Augsburg scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Augsburg was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Wolfsburg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Dortmund |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Union Berlin |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
FC Koln |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, RB Leipzig and the red line for guest team, Augsburg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
RB Leipzig |
13% |
27% |
33% |
28% |
|
Augsburg |
34% |
42% |
17% |
7% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) RB Leipzig to score 2.48 goals and Augsburg to score 0.49 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.97 goals in the game and the home team RB Leipzig to win by 1.99 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) RB Leipzig to score 1.75 goals and Augsburg to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.73 goals in the game and the home team RB Leipzig to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
22.73 |
0-1 |
5.29 |
|
1 |
6.90 |
2-3 |
1.88 |
|
2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
3.57 |
|
3 |
3.51 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.23 |
|
4 |
5.26 |
Un 1.5 |
5.29 |
|
5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.30 |
|
Gg |
1.74 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.57 |
|
NoG |
2.35 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.08 |
4.30 |
3.50 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.55 |
4.74 |
6.90 |
|
4+ goals |
1.74 |
3.73 |
6.36 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.61 |
4.34 |
6.70 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.08 |
4.30 |
3.50 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.45 |
7.53 |
5.71 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.79 |
5.72 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.74 |
3.73 |
6.36 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.66 |
4.62 |
5.50 |
|
Goal-Goal |
1.93 |
3.07 |
6.45 |
|
No Goal |
1.44 |
9.68 |
4.95 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.55 |
6.16 |
5.19 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.59 |
9.68 |
4.25 |
Go to Top
Dortmund vs Hoffenheim at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Dortmund and Hoffenheim for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Dortmund |
1.50 |
1.78 |
-10.5 |
|
Draw |
4.65 |
4.33 |
1.6 |
|
Hoffenheim |
6.22 |
4.83 |
4.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.39 |
1.71 |
-13.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.99 |
2.42 |
7.9 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Hoffenheim, Under 2.5 (1.6 %, 4.6 %, 7.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Dortmund in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
More recently, Dortmund in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance at home.
Dortmund, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dortmund scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dortmund was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Augsburg |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Jan |
M’gladbach |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Mainz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
18 Dec |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Hoffenheim in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hoffenheim in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance as a guest.
Hoffenheim, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
24 Jan |
FC Koln |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Hertha |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Bielefeld |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Freiburg |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
M’gladbach |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dortmund and the red line for guest team, Hoffenheim.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Dortmund |
16% |
30% |
16% |
38% |
|
Hoffenheim |
36% |
34% |
19% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dortmund to score 2.55 goals and Hoffenheim to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.44 goals in the game and the home team Dortmund to win by 1.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dortmund to score 1.76 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.79 goals in the game and the home team Dortmund to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
16.95 |
0-1 |
4.48 |
|
1 |
6.10 |
2-3 |
2.19 |
|
2 |
5.26 |
4+ |
3.13 |
|
3 |
3.76 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |
|
4 |
5.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.48 |
|
5 |
11.36 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.71 |
|
6+ |
25.64 |
Un 2.5 |
2.42 |
|
Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.13 |
|
NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.47 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.06 |
3.78 |
3.98 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.83 |
4.43 |
4.38 |
|
4+ goals |
1.56 |
4.69 |
6.79 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.71 |
4.53 |
5.13 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.06 |
3.78 |
3.98 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.47 |
8.60 |
4.88 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.52 |
2.55 |
4.75 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.56 |
4.69 |
6.79 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.90 |
4.19 |
4.24 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.06 |
3.11 |
5.17 |
|
No Goal |
1.54 |
7.90 |
4.48 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
6.31 |
4.17 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.89 |
7.90 |
3.56 |
Go to Top
Leverkusen vs Mainz at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Leverkusen and Mainz for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Leverkusen |
1.45 |
1.75 |
-11.8 |
|
Draw |
4.74 |
4.29 |
2.2 |
|
Mainz |
6.94 |
5.05 |
5.4 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.76 |
-6.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.41 |
2.31 |
1.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Mainz, Under 2.5 (2.2 %, 5.4 %, 1.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Leverkusen in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leverkusen in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance at home.
Leverkusen, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Stuttgart |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Dortmund |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Jan |
Union Berlin |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Mainz in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mainz in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance as a guest.
Mainz, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Mainz scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mainz was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Union Berlin |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Jan |
Stuttgart |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Dortmund |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Werder Bremen |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leverkusen and the red line for guest team, Mainz.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Leverkusen |
15% |
29% |
24% |
32% |
|
Mainz |
36% |
36% |
18% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 2.28 goals and Mainz to score 0.72 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.99 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 1.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leverkusen to score 1.73 goals and Mainz to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Leverkusen to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
18.18 |
0-1 |
4.65 |
|
1 |
6.25 |
2-3 |
2.05 |
|
2 |
4.61 |
4+ |
3.34 |
|
3 |
3.70 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.27 |
|
4 |
5.32 |
Un 1.5 |
4.65 |
|
5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
|
6+ |
33.33 |
Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
|
Gg |
1.84 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.34 |
|
NoG |
2.18 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.05 |
3.91 |
3.91 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.69 |
4.64 |
5.18 |
|
4+ goals |
1.69 |
4.10 |
6.10 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.69 |
4.42 |
5.50 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.05 |
3.91 |
3.91 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.50 |
7.79 |
4.91 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.70 |
5.27 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.69 |
4.10 |
6.10 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.79 |
4.39 |
4.71 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.06 |
3.05 |
5.32 |
|
No Goal |
1.49 |
8.33 |
4.77 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.67 |
6.00 |
4.29 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.72 |
8.33 |
3.99 |
Go to Top
Stuttgart vs Hertha at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Stuttgart and Hertha for Bundesliga (Germany), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Stuttgart |
2.31 |
2.11 |
4.1 |
|
Draw |
3.53 |
4.02 |
-3.5 |
|
Hertha |
3.07 |
3.60 |
-4.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.85 |
-7.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.32 |
2.17 |
3.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Stuttgart, Under 2.5 (4.1 %, 3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -4%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Stuttgart in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stuttgart in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance at home.
Stuttgart, at home, had one win, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Leverkusen |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Jan |
Mainz |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
20 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
M’gladbach |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Augsburg |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Hertha in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Hertha in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance as a guest.
Hertha, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Hertha scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Hertha was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
05 Feb |
Bayern Munich |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
FC Koln |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stuttgart and the red line for guest team, Hertha.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Stuttgart |
21% |
32% |
19% |
27% |
|
Hertha |
36% |
29% |
21% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.62 goals and Hertha to score 1.31 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.93 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stuttgart to score 1.52 goals and Hertha to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the home team Stuttgart to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.95 |
|
1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.19 |
|
2 |
4.85 |
4+ |
3.45 |
|
3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.02 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |
|
5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |
|
6+ |
25.64 |
Un 2.5 |
2.18 |
|
Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.45 |
|
NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |