# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** RB Leipzig vs Augsburg at 12 February 2021**** Dortmund vs Hoffenheim at 13 February 2021**** Leverkusen vs Mainz at 13 February 2021**** Stuttgart vs Hertha at 13 February 2021**** Union Berlin vs Schalke 04 at 13 February 2021**** Werder Bremen vs Freiburg at 13 February 2021**** Ein Frankfurt vs FC Koln at 14 February 2021**** Wolfsburg vs M’gladbach at 14 February 2021**** Bayern Munich vs Bielefeld at 15 February 2021**

###
RB Leipzig vs Augsburg at 12 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **RB Leipzig** and **Augsburg** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **12 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

RB Leipzig |
1.27 |
1.68 |
-19.2 |

Draw |
5.98 |
4.33 |
6.4 |

Augsburg |
11.43 |
5.71 |
8.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.61 |
1.77 |
-5.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.39 |
2.30 |
1.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Augsburg, Under 2.5 (6.4 %, 8.8 %, 1.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**RB Leipzig** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, RB Leipzig** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **RB Leipzig** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, RB Leipzig** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at RB Leipzig’s performance** at home**.

RB Leipzig,** at home**, had 8 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 25 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, RB Leipzig scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of RB Leipzig was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Schalke 04 |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Leverkusen |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Mainz |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Union Berlin |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Dortmund |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Stuttgart |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
FC Koln |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Augsburg** in the **last six** matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Augsburg scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Augsburg** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Augsburg scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Augsburg’s performance** as a guest**.

Augsburg,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 40.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Augsburg scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Augsburg was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Wolfsburg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Dortmund |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Union Berlin |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Stuttgart |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
FC Koln |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **RB Leipzig** and the red line for guest team, **Augsburg. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

RB Leipzig |
13% |
27% |
33% |
28% |

Augsburg |
34% |
42% |
17% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **RB Leipzig** to score **2.48 ** goals and **Augsburg** to score **0.49 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.97** goals in the game and the home team **RB Leipzig ** to win by **1.99** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **RB Leipzig** to score **1.75 ** goals and **Augsburg** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.73** goals in the game and the home team **RB Leipzig ** to win by **0.77** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
22.73 |
0-1 |
5.29 |

1 |
6.90 |
2-3 |
1.88 |

2 |
4.07 |
4+ |
3.57 |

3 |
3.51 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.23 |

4 |
5.26 |
Un 1.5 |
5.29 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.30 |

Gg |
1.74 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.57 |

NoG |
2.35 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.08 |
4.30 |
3.50 |

2-3 goals |
1.55 |
4.74 |
6.90 |

4+ goals |
1.74 |
3.73 |
6.36 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.61 |
4.34 |
6.70 |

Un 1.5 |
2.08 |
4.30 |
3.50 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.45 |
7.53 |
5.71 |

Un 2.5 |
2.14 |
2.79 |
5.72 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.74 |
3.73 |
6.36 |

Un 3.5 |
1.66 |
4.62 |
5.50 |

Goal-Goal |
1.93 |
3.07 |
6.45 |

No Goal |
1.44 |
9.68 |
4.95 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.55 |
6.16 |
5.19 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.59 |
9.68 |
4.25 |

####
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###
Dortmund vs Hoffenheim at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Dortmund** and **Hoffenheim** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Dortmund |
1.50 |
1.78 |
-10.5 |

Draw |
4.65 |
4.33 |
1.6 |

Hoffenheim |
6.22 |
4.83 |
4.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.39 |
1.71 |
-13.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.99 |
2.42 |
7.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Hoffenheim, Under 2.5 (1.6 %, 4.6 %, 7.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Dortmund** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

More recently, **Dortmund** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Dortmund’s performance** at home**.

Dortmund,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 59.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Dortmund** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dortmund was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Augsburg |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
M’gladbach |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Leverkusen |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Mainz |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

18 Dec |
Union Berlin |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Hoffenheim** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hoffenheim** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hoffenheim’s performance** as a guest**.

Hoffenheim,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Hoffenheim scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hoffenheim was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Feb |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
FC Koln |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

19 Jan |
Hertha |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
Bielefeld |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Freiburg |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
M’gladbach |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Dortmund** and the red line for guest team, **Hoffenheim. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Dortmund |
16% |
30% |
16% |
38% |

Hoffenheim |
36% |
34% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Dortmund** to score **2.55 ** goals and **Hoffenheim** to score **0.88 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.44** goals in the game and the home team **Dortmund ** to win by **1.67** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Dortmund** to score **1.76 ** goals and **Hoffenheim** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.79** goals in the game and the home team **Dortmund ** to win by **0.73** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.95 |
0-1 |
4.48 |

1 |
6.10 |
2-3 |
2.19 |

2 |
5.26 |
4+ |
3.13 |

3 |
3.76 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
5.21 |
Un 1.5 |
4.48 |

5 |
11.36 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.71 |

6+ |
25.64 |
Un 2.5 |
2.42 |

Gg |
1.88 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.13 |

NoG |
2.15 |
Un 3.5 |
1.47 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.06 |
3.78 |
3.98 |

2-3 goals |
1.83 |
4.43 |
4.38 |

4+ goals |
1.56 |
4.69 |
6.79 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.71 |
4.53 |
5.13 |

Un 1.5 |
2.06 |
3.78 |
3.98 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.47 |
8.60 |
4.88 |

Un 2.5 |
2.52 |
2.55 |
4.75 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.56 |
4.69 |
6.79 |

Un 3.5 |
1.90 |
4.19 |
4.24 |

Goal-Goal |
2.06 |
3.11 |
5.17 |

No Goal |
1.54 |
7.90 |
4.48 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
6.31 |
4.17 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.89 |
7.90 |
3.56 |

####
Go to Top

###
Leverkusen vs Mainz at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leverkusen** and **Mainz** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leverkusen |
1.45 |
1.75 |
-11.8 |

Draw |
4.74 |
4.29 |
2.2 |

Mainz |
6.94 |
5.05 |
5.4 |

Over 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.76 |
-6.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.41 |
2.31 |
1.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Mainz, Under 2.5 (2.2 %, 5.4 %, 1.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leverkusen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 3 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leverkusen** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leverkusen’s performance** at home**.

Leverkusen,** at home**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Leverkusen scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leverkusen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Stuttgart |
H |
5 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Dortmund |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

15 Jan |
Union Berlin |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Bayern Munich |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Mainz** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mainz** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Mainz’s performance** as a guest**.

Mainz,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 18.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Mainz scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mainz was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Union Berlin |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Jan |
Stuttgart |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Wolfsburg |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Dortmund |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Bayern Munich |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Dec |
Werder Bremen |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leverkusen** and the red line for guest team, **Mainz. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leverkusen |
15% |
29% |
24% |
32% |

Mainz |
36% |
36% |
18% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leverkusen** to score **2.28 ** goals and **Mainz** to score **0.72 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.99** goals in the game and the home team **Leverkusen ** to win by **1.56** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leverkusen** to score **1.73 ** goals and **Mainz** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and the home team **Leverkusen ** to win by **0.72** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
18.18 |
0-1 |
4.65 |

1 |
6.25 |
2-3 |
2.05 |

2 |
4.61 |
4+ |
3.34 |

3 |
3.70 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.27 |

4 |
5.32 |
Un 1.5 |
4.65 |

5 |
12.35 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |

6+ |
33.33 |
Un 2.5 |
2.31 |

Gg |
1.84 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.34 |

NoG |
2.18 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.05 |
3.91 |
3.91 |

2-3 goals |
1.69 |
4.64 |
5.18 |

4+ goals |
1.69 |
4.10 |
6.10 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.69 |
4.42 |
5.50 |

Un 1.5 |
2.05 |
3.91 |
3.91 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.50 |
7.79 |
4.91 |

Un 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.70 |
5.27 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.69 |
4.10 |
6.10 |

Un 3.5 |
1.79 |
4.39 |
4.71 |

Goal-Goal |
2.06 |
3.05 |
5.32 |

No Goal |
1.49 |
8.33 |
4.77 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.67 |
6.00 |
4.29 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.72 |
8.33 |
3.99 |

####
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###
Stuttgart vs Hertha at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stuttgart** and **Hertha** for **Bundesliga (Germany)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stuttgart |
2.31 |
2.11 |
4.1 |

Draw |
3.53 |
4.02 |
-3.5 |

Hertha |
3.07 |
3.60 |
-4.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.62 |
1.85 |
-7.7 |

Under 2.5 |
2.32 |
2.17 |
3.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Stuttgart, Under 2.5 (4.1 %, 3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -4%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stuttgart** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stuttgart** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stuttgart’s performance** at home**.

Stuttgart,** at home**, had one win, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 29.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Stuttgart scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stuttgart was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Leverkusen |
A |
2 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Jan |
Mainz |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
M’gladbach |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Augsburg |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
RB Leipzig |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Wolfsburg |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Hertha** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Hertha** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Hertha’s performance** as a guest**.

Hertha,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Hertha scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Hertha was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Feb |
Bayern Munich |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Ein Frankfurt |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Werder Bremen |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Hoffenheim |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

16 Jan |
FC Koln |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Bielefeld |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Schalke 04 |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Dec |
Freiburg |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stuttgart** and the red line for guest team, **Hertha. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stuttgart |
21% |
32% |
19% |
27% |

Hertha |
36% |
29% |
21% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stuttgart** to score **1.62 ** goals and **Hertha** to score **1.31 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.93** goals in the game and the home team **Stuttgart ** to win by **0.31** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stuttgart** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Hertha** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.66** goals in the game and the home team **Stuttgart ** to win by **0.38** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.95 |

1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.19 |

2 |
4.85 |
4+ |
3.45 |

3 |
3.98 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.02 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |

5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.85 |

6+ |
25.64 |
Un 2.5 |
2.18 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.45 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.41 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |