2021 02 12 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Blackburn vs Preston at 12 February 2021
Huddersfield vs Wycombe at 13 February 2021
Watford vs Bristol City at 13 February 2021
Sheffield Weds vs Swansea at 13 February 2021
Rotherham vs QPR at 13 February 2021
Reading vs Millwall at 13 February 2021
Birmingham vs Luton at 13 February 2021
Norwich vs Stoke at 13 February 2021
Derby vs Middlesbrough at 13 February 2021
Cardiff vs Coventry at 13 February 2021
<a href=‘#Nott’m Forest’> Nott’m Forest vs Bournemouth at 13 February 2021
Brentford vs Barnsley at 14 February 2021


Blackburn vs Preston at 12 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Blackburn and Preston for Championship (England), which will take place on 12 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Blackburn

1.95

2.18

-5.4

Draw

3.52

3.65

-1.0

Preston

3.94

3.73

1.4

Over 2.5

2.05

2.10

-1.2

Under 2.5

1.79

1.91

-3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Preston (1.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Blackburn in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Blackburn in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Blackburn’s performance at home.
Blackburn, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Blackburn scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Blackburn was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

QPR

A

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Luton

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Middlesbrough

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Stoke

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Birmingham

A

2

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Huddersfield

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Sheffield Weds

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Stoke

A

0

1

L

U

N


Preston in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Preston in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance as a guest.
Preston, as a guest, had 7 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Rotherham

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Sheffield Weds

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Jan

Reading

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Jan

Birmingham

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Bristol City

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Jan

Nott’m Forest

H

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Coventry

H

2

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Derby

A

1

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Blackburn and the red line for guest team, Preston.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Blackburn

20%

36%

26%

18%

Preston

32%

39%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.5 goals and Preston to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.41 goals and Preston to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Blackburn to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.38

0-1

3.85

1

5.13

2-3

1.96

2

3.79

4+

4.35

3

4.05

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.85

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.10

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

1.84

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.19

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.26

4.00

3.25

2-3 goals

2.14

3.60

3.93

4+ goals

2.19

3.43

3.97

Ov 1.5

2.15

3.55

3.94

Un 1.5

2.26

4.00

3.25

Ov 2.5

1.82

7.12

3.22

Un 2.5

2.66

2.53

4.37

Ov 3.5

2.19

3.43

3.97

Un 3.5

2.18

3.72

3.67

Goal-Goal

2.64

2.60

4.22

No Goal

1.81

7.03

3.29

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

6.00

3.12

NG+Un 2.5

1.94

7.03

3.18


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Huddersfield vs Wycombe at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Huddersfield and Wycombe for Championship (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Huddersfield

1.72

1.83

-3.5

Draw

3.78

4.02

-1.6

Wycombe

4.78

4.88

-0.4

Over 2.5

1.99

1.97

0.5

Under 2.5

1.85

2.03

-4.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Over 2.5 (0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Huddersfield in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huddersfield in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance at home.
Huddersfield, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 54.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Luton

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Stoke

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Jan

Bristol City

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Jan

Millwall

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Watford

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Jan

Reading

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Dec

Blackburn

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Barnsley

A

1

2

L

O

G


Wycombe in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance as a guest.
Wycombe, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 10 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 12.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Sheffield Weds

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Nott’m Forest

H

0

3

L

O

N

02 Feb

Birmingham

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Brentford

A

2

7

L

O

G

02 Jan

Middlesbrough

H

1

3

L

O

G

29 Dec

Cardiff

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Bristol City

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Dec

QPR

H

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Huddersfield and the red line for guest team, Wycombe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Huddersfield

17%

29%

32%

22%

Wycombe

35%

41%

16%

8%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 1.67 goals and Wycombe to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Huddersfield to win by 0.87 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Huddersfield to score 1.58 goals and Wycombe to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Huddersfield to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.95

0-1

4.31

1

5.78

2-3

1.90

2

3.85

4+

4.18

3

3.75

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.31

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

2.03

Gg

1.85

Ov 3.5

4.18

NoG

2.18

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.25

3.93

3.31

2-3 goals

1.66

4.32

6.06

4+ goals

1.94

3.51

4.98

Ov 1.5

1.74

4.03

5.67

Un 1.5

2.25

3.93

3.31

Ov 2.5

1.53

7.44

4.69

Un 2.5

2.30

2.72

5.07

Ov 3.5

1.94

3.51

4.98

Un 3.5

1.80

4.19

4.83

Goal-Goal

2.12

2.84

5.68

No Goal

1.58

7.76

4.16

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.64

6.15

4.40

NG+Un 2.5

1.73

7.76

3.81


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Watford vs Bristol City at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Watford and Bristol City for Championship (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Watford

1.62

1.85

-7.7

Draw

3.82

4.03

-1.4

Bristol City

5.76

4.76

3.6

Over 2.5

2.07

2.04

0.7

Under 2.5

1.77

1.96

-5.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Bristol City, Over 2.5 (3.6 %, 0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Watford in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance at home.
Watford, at home, had 10 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 32 points, 76.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Coventry

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Feb

QPR

H

1

2

L

O

G

26 Jan

Millwall

A

0

0

D

U

N

22 Jan

Stoke

A

2

1

W

O

G

19 Jan

Barnsley

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Huddersfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Swansea

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Norwich

H

1

0

W

U

N


Bristol City in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bristol City in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bristol City’s performance as a guest.
Bristol City, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 8 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Bristol City scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bristol City was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Cardiff

H

0

2

L

U

N

03 Feb

Brentford

A

2

3

L

O

G

30 Jan

Derby

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Huddersfield

H

2

1

W

O

G

20 Jan

Norwich

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Preston

H

2

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Luton

A

1

2

L

O

G

26 Dec

Wycombe

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Watford and the red line for guest team, Bristol City.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Watford

19%

29%

30%

22%

Bristol City

36%

42%

13%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Watford to score 1.7 goals and Bristol City to score 0.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 1.01 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Watford to score 1.55 goals and Bristol City to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Watford to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.29

0-1

3.91

1

5.38

2-3

1.95

2

3.94

4+

4.35

3

3.85

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.41

Un 1.5

3.91

5

18.52

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

4.35

NoG

2.05

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.44

3.66

3.16

2-3 goals

1.63

4.25

6.59

4+ goals

1.90

3.97

4.51

Ov 1.5

1.71

4.16

5.77

Un 1.5

2.44

3.66

3.16

Ov 2.5

1.50

8.45

4.67

Un 2.5

2.38

2.67

4.86

Ov 3.5

1.90

3.97

4.51

Un 3.5

1.83

4.03

4.84

Goal-Goal

2.09

2.87

5.83

No Goal

1.65

6.96

3.99

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.59

6.76

4.45

NG+Un 2.5

1.82

6.96

3.70


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
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Sheffield Weds vs Swansea at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sheffield Weds and Swansea for Championship (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sheffield Weds

3.82

2.64

11.7

Draw

3.22

3.48

-2.3

Swansea

2.08

2.99

-14.6

Over 2.5

2.42

2.33

1.6

Under 2.5

1.58

1.75

-6.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Sheffield Weds, Over 2.5 (11.7 %, 1.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sheffield Weds in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield Weds in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance at home.
Sheffield Weds, at home, had 6 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 54.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Wycombe

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Millwall

A

1

4

L

O

G

02 Feb

Bournemouth

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Preston

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Jan

Coventry

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Jan

Derby

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Middlesbrough

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Blackburn

A

1

1

D

U

G


Swansea in the last six matches had 4 wins, 2 draws, no defeats.and gathered 14 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Swansea in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Swansea’s performance as a guest.
Swansea, as a guest, had 7 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 24 points, 61.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Swansea scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Swansea was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Feb

Norwich

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Rotherham

A

3

1

W

O

G

27 Jan

Brentford

H

1

1

D

U

G

16 Jan

Barnsley

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Watford

H

2

1

W

O

G

30 Dec

Reading

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

QPR

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Barnsley

H

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sheffield Weds and the red line for guest team, Swansea.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sheffield Weds

34%

34%

13%

20%

Swansea

36%

34%

14%

16%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 0.85 goals and Swansea to score 1.29 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and the guest team Swansea to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sheffield Weds to score 1.18 goals and Swansea to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.13

0-1

2.77

1

4.20

2-3

2.36

2

4.78

4+

4.67

3

4.65

Ov 1.5

1.57

4

7.30

Un 1.5

2.77

5

21.28

Ov 2.5

2.33

6+

33.33

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

2.38

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

1.73

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.96

2.93

3.11

2-3 goals