Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Halifax vs Dover Athletic at 13 February 2021
Yeovil vs Altrincham at 13 February 2021
Wrexham vs Notts County at 13 February 2021
Woking vs Torquay at 13 February 2021
Wealdstone vs Bromley at 13 February 2021
Stockport vs Aldershot at 13 February 2021
Maidenhead vs Weymouth at 13 February 2021
Dag and Red vs Hartlepool at 13 February 2021
Boreham Wood vs Sutton at 13 February 2021
Solihull vs Barnet at 13 February 2021
Halifax vs Dover Athletic at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Halifax and Dover Athletic for Conference (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Halifax |
1.49 |
1.77 |
-10.6 |
|
Draw |
4.04 |
4.29 |
-1.4 |
|
Dover Athletic |
5.75 |
4.93 |
2.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.97 |
-2.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.03 |
-3.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Dover Athletic (2.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Halifax in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Halifax in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Halifax’s performance at home.
Halifax, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 51.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Halifax scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Halifax was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Maidenhead |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Wrexham |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
King’s Lynn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Altrincham |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Hartlepool |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Eastleigh |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
15 Dec |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Dover Athletic in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dover Athletic in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Dover Athletic’s performance as a guest.
Dover Athletic, as a guest, had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dover Athletic was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Yeovil |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Barnet |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Solihull |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Wrexham |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Dag and Red |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
King’s Lynn |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Nov |
Woking |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Halifax and the red line for guest team, Dover Athletic.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Halifax |
24% |
20% |
27% |
29% |
|
Dover Athletic |
41% |
37% |
16% |
6% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.86 goals and Dover Athletic to score 0.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Halifax to win by 1.17 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Halifax to score 1.61 goals and Dover Athletic to score 0.88 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Halifax to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.31 |
0-1 |
3.72 |
|
1 |
5.81 |
2-3 |
2.05 |
|
2 |
4.48 |
4+ |
4.12 |
|
3 |
3.77 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.72 |
|
5 |
16.13 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
|
Gg |
2.22 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.12 |
|
NoG |
1.82 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.24 |
2.77 |
3.02 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.48 |
6.51 |
5.81 |
|
4+ goals |
1.60 |
3.98 |
8.10 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.52 |
5.38 |
6.41 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.24 |
2.77 |
3.02 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.37 |
8.33 |
6.60 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.54 |
2.86 |
3.90 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.60 |
3.98 |
8.10 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.84 |
4.40 |
4.38 |
|
Goal-Goal |
1.78 |
3.32 |
7.27 |
|
No Goal |
1.77 |
5.66 |
3.89 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.49 |
6.16 |
6.06 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.15 |
5.66 |
3.31 |
Go to Top
Yeovil vs Altrincham at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Yeovil and Altrincham for Conference (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Yeovil |
2.14 |
2.88 |
-12.0 |
|
Draw |
3.47 |
3.66 |
-1.5 |
|
Altrincham |
3.04 |
2.63 |
5.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.93 |
2.02 |
-2.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.86 |
1.98 |
-3.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Altrincham (5.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Yeovil in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Yeovil in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Yeovil’s performance at home.
Yeovil, at home, had 3 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 37.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Yeovil scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Yeovil was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Feb |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Dover Athletic |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Jan |
Maidenhead |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Torquay |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Aldershot |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
6 |
L |
O |
G |
Altrincham in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Altrincham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Altrincham’s performance as a guest.
Altrincham, as a guest, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Altrincham scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Altrincham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Feb |
Wrexham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
02 Feb |
Torquay |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Wealdstone |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Barnet |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Sutton |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Stockport |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Halifax |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Yeovil and the red line for guest team, Altrincham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Yeovil |
26% |
39% |
22% |
14% |
|
Altrincham |
26% |
34% |
24% |
16% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.41 goals and Altrincham to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Yeovil to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Yeovil to score 1.24 goals and Altrincham to score 1.3 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.93 |
0-1 |
3.92 |
|
1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.02 |
|
3 |
4.08 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.92 |
|
5 |
14.71 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
Gg |
1.82 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.02 |
|
NoG |
2.22 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.52 |
3.81 |
2.93 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.97 |
3.76 |
2.52 |
|
4+ goals |
3.15 |
3.36 |
2.59 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.03 |
3.62 |
2.54 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.81 |
2.93 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.61 |
6.68 |
2.14 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.20 |
2.54 |
3.40 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.15 |
3.36 |
2.59 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.80 |
3.77 |
2.64 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.57 |
2.67 |
2.89 |
|
No Goal |
2.33 |
6.72 |
2.37 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.71 |
5.65 |
2.20 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.37 |
6.72 |
2.51 |
Go to Top
Wrexham vs Notts County at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and Notts County for Conference (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Wrexham |
2.96 |
2.37 |
8.4 |
|
Draw |
3.28 |
3.72 |
-3.6 |
|
Notts County |
2.30 |
3.24 |
-12.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.13 |
1.98 |
3.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.70 |
2.02 |
-9.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Wrexham, Over 2.5 (8.4 %, 3.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Wrexham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Feb |
Altrincham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Dag and Red |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
02 Feb |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Jan |
King’s Lynn |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Halifax |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Chesterfield |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Dover Athletic |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Notts County in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Notts County in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Notts County’s performance as a guest.
Notts County, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 52.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Notts County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Notts County was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Feb |
Dag and Red |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Jan |
Solihull |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Torquay |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
28 Dec |
Hartlepool |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Boreham Wood |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Woking |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, Notts County.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Wrexham |
21% |
37% |
24% |
18% |
|
Notts County |
30% |
35% |
22% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.06 goals and Notts County to score 1.26 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.39 goals and Notts County to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.87 |
0-1 |
4.05 |
|
1 |
5.43 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
4.02 |
4+ |
3.89 |
|
3 |
4.05 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
6.10 |
Un 1.5 |
4.05 |
|
5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
Gg |
1.81 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.89 |
|
NoG |
2.24 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.27 |
3.92 |
3.29 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.37 |
3.82 |
3.16 |
|
4+ goals |
2.50 |
3.34 |
3.34 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.41 |
3.64 |
3.22 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.27 |
3.92 |
3.29 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
6.55 |
2.71 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.76 |
2.57 |
4.03 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.50 |
3.34 |
3.34 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.34 |
3.85 |
3.20 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.95 |
2.68 |
3.48 |
|
No Goal |
1.91 |
7.08 |
2.97 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
5.51 |
2.67 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.03 |
7.08 |
2.98 |
Go to Top
Woking vs Torquay at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Woking and Torquay for Conference (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Woking |
3.05 |
2.99 |
0.7 |
|
Draw |
3.34 |
3.64 |
-2.5 |
|
Torquay |
2.19 |
2.56 |
-6.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.85 |
2.00 |
-4.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.93 |
2.00 |
-1.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Woking (0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Woking in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance at home.
Woking, at home, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Maidenhead |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Dec |
Eastleigh |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Aldershot |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Hartlepool |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Torquay in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torquay in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Torquay’s performance as a guest.
Torquay, as a guest, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 69.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Torquay scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torquay was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Feb |
Wealdstone |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Feb |
Altrincham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Barnet |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Sutton |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Yeovil |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Weymouth |
A |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Yeovil |
H |
6 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Woking and the red line for guest team, Torquay.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Woking |
24% |
42% |
21% |
12% |
|
Torquay |
25% |
34% |
25% |
17% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Woking to score 1.14 goals and Torquay to score 1.45 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the guest team Torquay to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Woking to score 1.22 goals and Torquay to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
16.67 |
0-1 |
4.07 |
|
1 |
5.38 |
2-3 |
2.00 |
|
2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
3.95 |
|
3 |
4.07 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.33 |
|
4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
4.07 |
|
5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
6+ |
47.62 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
Gg |
1.75 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.95 |
|
NoG |
2.33 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.34 |
4.10 |
3.04 |
|
2-3 goals |