# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Waalwijk vs FC Emmen at 12 February 2021**** Sparta Rotterdam vs For Sittard at 13 February 2021**** Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven at 13 February 2021**** Groningen vs Zwolle at 13 February 2021**** Heracles vs Ajax at 13 February 2021**** Feyenoord vs Willem II at 14 February 2021**** Vitesse vs Twente at 14 February 2021**** Utrecht vs VVV Venlo at 14 February 2021**** AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen at 14 February 2021**

###
Waalwijk vs FC Emmen at 12 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Waalwijk** and **FC Emmen** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **12 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Waalwijk |
2.17 |
2.01 |
3.7 |

Draw |
3.61 |
4.17 |
-3.7 |

FC Emmen |
3.14 |
3.82 |
-5.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.66 |
3.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.52 |
-7.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Waalwijk, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 3.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Waalwijk** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Waalwijk** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance** at home**.

Waalwijk,** at home**, had one win, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 23.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 7 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

14 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

09 Jan |
Den Haag |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
For Sittard |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**FC Emmen** in the **last six** matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **FC Emmen** in the **last three matches** had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen** didn’t score to any of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance** as a guest**.

FC Emmen,** as a guest**, had no wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 10.0% of the total available.

In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Twente |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Utrecht |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Waalwijk** and the red line for guest team, **FC Emmen. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Waalwijk |
19% |
22% |
30% |
28% |

FC Emmen |
30% |
34% |
22% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Waalwijk** to score **1.55 ** goals and **FC Emmen** to score **1.19 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.74** goals in the game and the home team **Waalwijk ** to win by **0.36** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Waalwijk** to score **1.67 ** goals and **FC Emmen** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.88** goals in the game and the home team **Waalwijk ** to win by **0.46** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
5.26 |

1 |
7.58 |
2-3 |
2.12 |

2 |
4.81 |
4+ |
2.94 |

3 |
3.80 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.23 |

4 |
5.18 |
Un 1.5 |
5.26 |

5 |
9.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |

6+ |
23.81 |
Un 2.5 |
2.51 |

Gg |
1.77 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.94 |

NoG |
2.29 |
Un 3.5 |
1.51 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.84 |
3.28 |
2.92 |

2-3 goals |
1.70 |
6.28 |
3.96 |

4+ goals |
2.21 |
3.15 |
4.36 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.88 |
4.43 |
4.12 |

Un 1.5 |
2.84 |
3.28 |
2.92 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
5.58 |
3.89 |

Un 2.5 |
2.52 |
2.99 |
3.72 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.21 |
3.15 |
4.36 |

Un 3.5 |
1.92 |
4.97 |
3.59 |

Goal-Goal |
2.21 |
3.09 |
4.48 |

No Goal |
1.80 |
7.52 |
3.21 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
4.54 |
3.89 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
7.52 |
3.02 |

####
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###
Sparta Rotterdam vs For Sittard at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sparta Rotterdam** and **For Sittard** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sparta Rotterdam |
1.86 |
2.26 |
-9.5 |

Draw |
3.73 |
3.83 |
-0.7 |

For Sittard |
3.89 |
3.38 |
3.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.88 |
-4.3 |

Under 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.13 |
-0.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **For Sittard (3.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sparta Rotterdam** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance** at home**.

Sparta Rotterdam,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

31 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

28 Jan |
Twente |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Jan |
For Sittard |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Feyenoord |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

22 Dec |
Twente |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Groningen |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

**For Sittard** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **For Sittard** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance** as a guest**.

For Sittard,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, For Sittard scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

05 Feb |
Heracles |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Waalwijk |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Ajax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Zwolle |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sparta Rotterdam** and the red line for guest team, **For Sittard. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sparta Rotterdam |
23% |
30% |
24% |
23% |

For Sittard |
27% |
41% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **1.74 ** goals and **For Sittard** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.75** goals in the game and the home team **Sparta Rotterdam ** to win by **0.73** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sparta Rotterdam** to score **1.47 ** goals and **For Sittard** to score **1.18 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.65** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.29** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
16.39 |
0-1 |
4.24 |

1 |
5.71 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.29 |
4+ |
3.53 |

3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
5.62 |
Un 1.5 |
4.24 |

5 |
13.16 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |

6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.13 |

Gg |
1.77 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.53 |

NoG |
2.29 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.88 |
3.87 |
2.54 |

2-3 goals |
2.15 |
3.91 |
3.59 |

4+ goals |
2.07 |
3.72 |
4.04 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.12 |
3.84 |
3.75 |

Un 1.5 |
2.88 |
3.87 |
2.54 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |
6.99 |
3.34 |

Un 2.5 |
3.19 |
2.55 |
3.40 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.07 |
3.72 |
4.04 |

Un 3.5 |
2.34 |
3.90 |
3.16 |

Goal-Goal |
2.40 |
2.83 |
4.34 |

No Goal |
2.10 |
7.15 |
2.61 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
5.80 |
3.39 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
7.15 |
2.51 |

####
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###
Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Den Haag** and **PSV Eindhoven** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Den Haag |
10.33 |
3.25 |
21.1 |

Draw |
5.99 |
3.79 |
9.7 |

PSV Eindhoven |
1.25 |
2.34 |
-37.3 |

Over 2.5 |
1.41 |
1.58 |
-7.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.80 |
2.72 |
1.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Den Haag, Draw, Under 2.5 (21.1 %, 9.7 %, 1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Den Haag** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Den Haag** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance** at home**.

Den Haag,** at home**, had no wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 13.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Den Haag scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

31 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Jan |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Zwolle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Dec |
Ajax |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

**PSV Eindhoven** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **PSV Eindhoven** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance** as a guest**.

PSV Eindhoven,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.

In these matches, PSV Eindhoven** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Twente |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

31 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
FC Emmen |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

10 Jan |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Den Haag** and the red line for guest team, **PSV Eindhoven. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Den Haag |
23% |
34% |
23% |
20% |

PSV Eindhoven |
12% |
37% |
27% |
24% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Den Haag** to score **0.57 ** goals and **PSV Eindhoven** to score **2.78 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **3.34** goals in the game and the guest team **PSV Eindhoven ** to win by **2.21** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Den Haag** to score **1.41 ** goals and **PSV Eindhoven** to score **1.63 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **3.04** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
37.04 |
0-1 |
6.58 |

1 |
8.00 |
2-3 |
2.12 |

2 |
4.65 |
4+ |
2.65 |

3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.18 |

4 |
4.57 |
Un 1.5 |
6.58 |

5 |
9.09 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |

6+ |
20.83 |
Un 2.5 |
2.72 |

Gg |
1.47 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.65 |

NoG |
3.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.61 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.90 |
5.63 |
1.77 |

2-3 goals |
3.44 |
3.74 |
2.26 |

4+ goals |
2.86 |
3.40 |
2.81 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.15 |
3.58 |
2.48 |

Un 1.5 |
3.90 |
5.63 |
1.77 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.62 |
5.70 |
2.26 |

Un 2.5 |
5.56 |
2.40 |
2.48 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.86 |
3.40 |
2.81 |

Un 3.5 |
3.54 |
4.07 |
2.12 |

Goal-Goal |
3.12 |
2.87 |
3.01 |

No Goal |
3.54 |
11.81 |
1.58 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.55 |
5.00 |
2.46 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
3.65 |
11.81 |
1.63 |

####
Go to Top

###
Groningen vs Zwolle at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Groningen** and **Zwolle** for **Eredivisie (Holland)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Groningen |
2.05 |
1.89 |
4.1 |

Draw |
3.47 |
4.26 |
-5.3 |

Zwolle |
3.53 |
4.24 |
-4.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.69 |
8.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.44 |
-12.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Groningen, Over 2.5 (4.1 %, 8.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -8%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Groningen** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Groningen** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance** at home**.

Groningen,** at home**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Groningen scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Den Haag |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Twente |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

14 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Heracles |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

**Zwolle** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zwolle** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance** as a guest**.

Zwolle,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Zwolle scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Waalwijk |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Heracles |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

22 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

13 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Dec |
Den Haag |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Groningen** and the red line for guest team, **Zwolle. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Groningen |
18% |
22% |
30% |
29% |

Zwolle |
34% |
32% |
20% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Groningen** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Zwolle** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and the home team **Groningen ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Groningen** to score **1.7 ** goals and **Zwolle** to score **1.13 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.83** goals in the game and the home team **Groningen ** to win by **0.57** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.87 |
0-1 |
5.05 |

1 |
7.41 |
2-3 |
2.09 |

2 |
4.72 |
4+ |
3.09 |

3 |
3.75 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.25 |

4 |
5.41 |
Un 1.5 |
5.05 |

5 |
10.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |

6+ |
25.64 |
Un 2.5 |
2.44 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.09 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.48 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |