Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Waalwijk vs FC Emmen at 12 February 2021
Sparta Rotterdam vs For Sittard at 13 February 2021
Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven at 13 February 2021
Groningen vs Zwolle at 13 February 2021
Heracles vs Ajax at 13 February 2021
Feyenoord vs Willem II at 14 February 2021
Vitesse vs Twente at 14 February 2021
Utrecht vs VVV Venlo at 14 February 2021
AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen at 14 February 2021
Waalwijk vs FC Emmen at 12 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Waalwijk and FC Emmen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 12 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Waalwijk |
2.17 |
2.01 |
3.7 |
|
Draw |
3.61 |
4.17 |
-3.7 |
|
FC Emmen |
3.14 |
3.82 |
-5.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.66 |
3.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.52 |
-7.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Waalwijk, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Waalwijk in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance at home.
Waalwijk, at home, had one win, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 23.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Zwolle |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
27 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Willem II |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Den Haag |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
For Sittard |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
FC Emmen in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Emmen in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance as a guest.
FC Emmen, as a guest, had no wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 10.0% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Vitesse |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Twente |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Utrecht |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Waalwijk and the red line for guest team, FC Emmen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Waalwijk |
19% |
22% |
30% |
28% |
|
FC Emmen |
30% |
34% |
22% |
15% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.55 goals and FC Emmen to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Waalwijk to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.67 goals and FC Emmen to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and the home team Waalwijk to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
17.24 |
0-1 |
5.26 |
|
1 |
7.58 |
2-3 |
2.12 |
|
2 |
4.81 |
4+ |
2.94 |
|
3 |
3.80 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.23 |
|
4 |
5.18 |
Un 1.5 |
5.26 |
|
5 |
9.52 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.66 |
|
6+ |
23.81 |
Un 2.5 |
2.51 |
|
Gg |
1.77 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.94 |
|
NoG |
2.29 |
Un 3.5 |
1.51 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.84 |
3.28 |
2.92 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.70 |
6.28 |
3.96 |
|
4+ goals |
2.21 |
3.15 |
4.36 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.88 |
4.43 |
4.12 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.84 |
3.28 |
2.92 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
5.58 |
3.89 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.52 |
2.99 |
3.72 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.21 |
3.15 |
4.36 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.92 |
4.97 |
3.59 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.21 |
3.09 |
4.48 |
|
No Goal |
1.80 |
7.52 |
3.21 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.91 |
4.54 |
3.89 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
7.52 |
3.02 |
Go to Top
Sparta Rotterdam vs For Sittard at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Sparta Rotterdam and For Sittard for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Sparta Rotterdam |
1.86 |
2.26 |
-9.5 |
|
Draw |
3.73 |
3.83 |
-0.7 |
|
For Sittard |
3.89 |
3.38 |
3.9 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
1.88 |
-4.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.13 |
-0.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at For Sittard (3.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Sparta Rotterdam in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sparta Rotterdam in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance at home.
Sparta Rotterdam, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
31 Jan |
Den Haag |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
28 Jan |
Twente |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
PSV Eindhoven |
H |
3 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Jan |
For Sittard |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Feyenoord |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
Twente |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Groningen |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
For Sittard in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, For Sittard in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance as a guest.
For Sittard, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
05 Feb |
Heracles |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Jan |
Waalwijk |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Jan |
Ajax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Zwolle |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Heerenveen |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sparta Rotterdam and the red line for guest team, For Sittard.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Sparta Rotterdam |
23% |
30% |
24% |
23% |
|
For Sittard |
27% |
41% |
20% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.74 goals and For Sittard to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Sparta Rotterdam to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.47 goals and For Sittard to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
16.39 |
0-1 |
4.24 |
|
1 |
5.71 |
2-3 |
2.08 |
|
2 |
4.29 |
4+ |
3.53 |
|
3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |
|
4 |
5.62 |
Un 1.5 |
4.24 |
|
5 |
13.16 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
|
6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
|
Gg |
1.77 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.53 |
|
NoG |
2.29 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.88 |
3.87 |
2.54 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.15 |
3.91 |
3.59 |
|
4+ goals |
2.07 |
3.72 |
4.04 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.12 |
3.84 |
3.75 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.88 |
3.87 |
2.54 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |
6.99 |
3.34 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.19 |
2.55 |
3.40 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.07 |
3.72 |
4.04 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.34 |
3.90 |
3.16 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.40 |
2.83 |
4.34 |
|
No Goal |
2.10 |
7.15 |
2.61 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.88 |
5.80 |
3.39 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.35 |
7.15 |
2.51 |
Go to Top
Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Den Haag |
10.33 |
3.25 |
21.1 |
|
Draw |
5.99 |
3.79 |
9.7 |
|
PSV Eindhoven |
1.25 |
2.34 |
-37.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.41 |
1.58 |
-7.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.80 |
2.72 |
1.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Den Haag, Draw, Under 2.5 (21.1 %, 9.7 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Den Haag in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Den Haag in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance at home.
Den Haag, at home, had no wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
31 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Groningen |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
23 Jan |
FC Emmen |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Jan |
VVV Venlo |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Waalwijk |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Dec |
Zwolle |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
20 Dec |
Ajax |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
PSV Eindhoven in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PSV Eindhoven in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance as a guest.
PSV Eindhoven, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Twente |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
FC Emmen |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Waalwijk |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
5 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Ajax |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
VVV Venlo |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Den Haag and the red line for guest team, PSV Eindhoven.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Den Haag |
23% |
34% |
23% |
20% |
|
PSV Eindhoven |
12% |
37% |
27% |
24% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Den Haag to score 0.57 goals and PSV Eindhoven to score 2.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.34 goals in the game and the guest team PSV Eindhoven to win by 2.21 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Den Haag to score 1.41 goals and PSV Eindhoven to score 1.63 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3.04 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.22 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
37.04 |
0-1 |
6.58 |
|
1 |
8.00 |
2-3 |
2.12 |
|
2 |
4.65 |
4+ |
2.65 |
|
3 |
3.91 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.18 |
|
4 |
4.57 |
Un 1.5 |
6.58 |
|
5 |
9.09 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
|
6+ |
20.83 |
Un 2.5 |
2.72 |
|
Gg |
1.47 |
Ov 3.5 |
2.65 |
|
NoG |
3.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.61 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.90 |
5.63 |
1.77 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.44 |
3.74 |
2.26 |
|
4+ goals |
2.86 |
3.40 |
2.81 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.15 |
3.58 |
2.48 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.90 |
5.63 |
1.77 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.62 |
5.70 |
2.26 |
|
Un 2.5 |
5.56 |
2.40 |
2.48 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.86 |
3.40 |
2.81 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.54 |
4.07 |
2.12 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.12 |
2.87 |
3.01 |
|
No Goal |
3.54 |
11.81 |
1.58 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.55 |
5.00 |
2.46 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.65 |
11.81 |
1.63 |
Go to Top
Groningen vs Zwolle at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Groningen and Zwolle for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Groningen |
2.05 |
1.89 |
4.1 |
|
Draw |
3.47 |
4.26 |
-5.3 |
|
Zwolle |
3.53 |
4.24 |
-4.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.96 |
1.69 |
8.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.88 |
2.44 |
-12.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Groningen, Over 2.5 (4.1 %, 8.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Groningen in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Groningen in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance at home.
Groningen, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Groningen was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Heracles |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Den Haag |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Vitesse |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Twente |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
14 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Heracles |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Sparta Rotterdam |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
Zwolle in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance as a guest.
Zwolle, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Waalwijk |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Utrecht |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Heracles |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
22 Jan |
Willem II |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
For Sittard |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
13 Jan |
Feyenoord |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
AZ Alkmaar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Den Haag |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Groningen and the red line for guest team, Zwolle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Groningen |
18% |
22% |
30% |
29% |
|
Zwolle |
34% |
32% |
20% |
13% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.49 goals and Zwolle to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Groningen to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.7 goals and Zwolle to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the home team Groningen to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.87 |
0-1 |
5.05 |
|
1 |
7.41 |
2-3 |
2.09 |
|
2 |
4.72 |
4+ |
3.09 |
|
3 |
3.75 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.25 |
|
4 |
5.41 |
Un 1.5 |
5.05 |
|
5 |
10.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.69 |
|
6+ |
25.64 |
Un 2.5 |
2.44 |
|
Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.09 |
|
NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.48 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |