2021 02 12 Eredivisie (Holland)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Waalwijk vs FC Emmen at 12 February 2021
Sparta Rotterdam vs For Sittard at 13 February 2021
Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven at 13 February 2021
Groningen vs Zwolle at 13 February 2021
Heracles vs Ajax at 13 February 2021
Feyenoord vs Willem II at 14 February 2021
Vitesse vs Twente at 14 February 2021
Utrecht vs VVV Venlo at 14 February 2021
AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen at 14 February 2021


Waalwijk vs FC Emmen at 12 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Waalwijk and FC Emmen for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 12 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Waalwijk

2.17

2.01

3.7

Draw

3.61

4.17

-3.7

FC Emmen

3.14

3.82

-5.7

Over 2.5

1.75

1.66

3.1

Under 2.5

2.12

2.52

-7.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Waalwijk, Over 2.5 (3.7 %, 3.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Waalwijk in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Waalwijk in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Waalwijk’s performance at home.
Waalwijk, at home, had one win, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 23.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Waalwijk scored in 7 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Waalwijk was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Zwolle

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Vitesse

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Jan

For Sittard

H

1

2

L

O

G

23 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Jan

Willem II

H

1

1

D

U

G

14 Jan

Heerenveen

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Den Haag

H

0

1

L

U

N

22 Dec

For Sittard

A

1

2

L

O

G


FC Emmen in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, FC Emmen in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at FC Emmen’s performance as a guest.
FC Emmen, as a guest, had no wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 10.0% of the total available.
In these matches, FC Emmen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of FC Emmen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

AZ Alkmaar

H

0

1

L

U

N

31 Jan

Willem II

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Jan

Den Haag

A

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

Vitesse

H

1

4

L

O

G

12 Jan

Heracles

A

0

4

L

O

N

09 Jan

Twente

H

1

4

L

O

G

22 Dec

Utrecht

H

2

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Waalwijk and the red line for guest team, FC Emmen.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Waalwijk

19%

22%

30%

28%

FC Emmen

30%

34%

22%

15%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.55 goals and FC Emmen to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Waalwijk to win by 0.36 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Waalwijk to score 1.67 goals and FC Emmen to score 1.21 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.88 goals in the game and the home team Waalwijk to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.24

0-1

5.26

1

7.58

2-3

2.12

2

4.81

4+

2.94

3

3.80

Ov 1.5

1.23

4

5.18

Un 1.5

5.26

5

9.52

Ov 2.5

1.66

6+

23.81

Un 2.5

2.51

Gg

1.77

Ov 3.5

2.94

NoG

2.29

Un 3.5

1.51

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.84

3.28

2.92

2-3 goals

1.70

6.28

3.96

4+ goals

2.21

3.15

4.36

Ov 1.5

1.88

4.43

4.12

Un 1.5

2.84

3.28

2.92

Ov 2.5

1.77

5.58

3.89

Un 2.5

2.52

2.99

3.72

Ov 3.5

2.21

3.15

4.36

Un 3.5

1.92

4.97

3.59

Goal-Goal

2.21

3.09

4.48

No Goal

1.80

7.52

3.21

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.91

4.54

3.89

NG+Un 2.5

2.04

7.52

3.02


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sparta Rotterdam vs For Sittard at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sparta Rotterdam and For Sittard for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sparta Rotterdam

1.86

2.26

-9.5

Draw

3.73

3.83

-0.7

For Sittard

3.89

3.38

3.9

Over 2.5

1.74

1.88

-4.3

Under 2.5

2.12

2.13

-0.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at For Sittard (3.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sparta Rotterdam in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sparta Rotterdam in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sparta Rotterdam’s performance at home.
Sparta Rotterdam, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sparta Rotterdam scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sparta Rotterdam was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Den Haag

A

1

1

D

U

G

28 Jan

Twente

H

0

0

D

U

N

24 Jan

Utrecht

A

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

PSV Eindhoven

H

3

5

L

O

G

13 Jan

For Sittard

A

1

0

W

U

N

10 Jan

Feyenoord

H

0

2

L

U

N

22 Dec

Twente

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Dec

Groningen

H

2

3

L

O

G


For Sittard in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, For Sittard in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at For Sittard’s performance as a guest.
For Sittard, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, For Sittard scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of For Sittard was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

05 Feb

Heracles

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

VVV Venlo

H

3

2

W

O

G

27 Jan

Waalwijk

A

2

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Ajax

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Zwolle

A

2

0

W

U

N

13 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Heerenveen

A

3

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Waalwijk

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sparta Rotterdam and the red line for guest team, For Sittard.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sparta Rotterdam

23%

30%

24%

23%

For Sittard

27%

41%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.74 goals and For Sittard to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Sparta Rotterdam to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sparta Rotterdam to score 1.47 goals and For Sittard to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.65 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

16.39

0-1

4.24

1

5.71

2-3

2.08

2

4.29

4+

3.53

3

4.03

Ov 1.5

1.31

4

5.62

Un 1.5

4.24

5

13.16

Ov 2.5

1.88

6+

34.48

Un 2.5

2.13

Gg

1.77

Ov 3.5

3.53

NoG

2.29

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.88

3.87

2.54

2-3 goals

2.15

3.91

3.59

4+ goals

2.07

3.72

4.04

Ov 1.5

2.12

3.84

3.75

Un 1.5

2.88

3.87

2.54

Ov 2.5

1.79

6.99

3.34

Un 2.5

3.19

2.55

3.40

Ov 3.5

2.07

3.72

4.04

Un 3.5

2.34

3.90

3.16

Goal-Goal

2.40

2.83

4.34

No Goal

2.10

7.15

2.61

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.88

5.80

3.39

NG+Un 2.5

2.35

7.15

2.51


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Den Haag

10.33

3.25

21.1

Draw

5.99

3.79

9.7

PSV Eindhoven

1.25

2.34

-37.3

Over 2.5

1.41

1.58

-7.6

Under 2.5

2.80

2.72

1.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Den Haag, Draw, Under 2.5 (21.1 %, 9.7 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Den Haag in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Den Haag in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Den Haag’s performance at home.
Den Haag, at home, had no wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Den Haag scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Den Haag was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

31 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Jan

Groningen

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Jan

FC Emmen

H

0

0

D

U

N

16 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

A

1

2

L

O

G

13 Jan

VVV Venlo

H

1

4

L

O

G

09 Jan

Waalwijk

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Dec

Zwolle

H

0

2

L

U

N

20 Dec

Ajax

H

2

4

L

O

G


PSV Eindhoven in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, PSV Eindhoven in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at PSV Eindhoven’s performance as a guest.
PSV Eindhoven, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, PSV Eindhoven scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of PSV Eindhoven was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Twente

H

3

0

W

O

N

31 Jan

Feyenoord

A

1

3

L

O

G

26 Jan

FC Emmen

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Waalwijk

H

2

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Sparta Rotterdam

A

5

3

W

O

G

13 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

3

L

O

G

10 Jan

Ajax

A

2

2

D

O

G

22 Dec

VVV Venlo

H

4

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Den Haag and the red line for guest team, PSV Eindhoven.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Den Haag

23%

34%

23%

20%

PSV Eindhoven

12%

37%

27%

24%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Den Haag to score 0.57 goals and PSV Eindhoven to score 2.78 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.34 goals in the game and the guest team PSV Eindhoven to win by 2.21 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Den Haag to score 1.41 goals and PSV Eindhoven to score 1.63 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3.04 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

37.04

0-1

6.58

1

8.00

2-3

2.12

2

4.65

4+

2.65

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.18

4

4.57

Un 1.5

6.58

5

9.09

Ov 2.5

1.58

6+

20.83

Un 2.5

2.72

Gg

1.47

Ov 3.5

2.65

NoG

3.13

Un 3.5

1.61

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.90

5.63

1.77

2-3 goals

3.44

3.74

2.26

4+ goals

2.86

3.40

2.81

Ov 1.5

3.15

3.58

2.48

Un 1.5

3.90

5.63

1.77

Ov 2.5

2.62

5.70

2.26

Un 2.5

5.56

2.40

2.48

Ov 3.5

2.86

3.40

2.81

Un 3.5

3.54

4.07

2.12

Goal-Goal

3.12

2.87

3.01

No Goal

3.54

11.81

1.58

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.55

5.00

2.46

NG+Un 2.5

3.65

11.81

1.63


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Groningen vs Zwolle at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Groningen and Zwolle for Eredivisie (Holland), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Groningen

2.05

1.89

4.1

Draw

3.47

4.26

-5.3

Zwolle

3.53

4.24

-4.7

Over 2.5

1.96

1.69

8.2

Under 2.5

1.88

2.44

-12.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Groningen, Over 2.5 (4.1 %, 8.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -8%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Groningen in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Groningen in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Groningen’s performance at home.
Groningen, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Groningen scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Groningen was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Heracles

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Den Haag

H

3

0

W

O

N

23 Jan

Vitesse

A

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

Twente

H

2

2

D

O

G

14 Jan

Willem II

A

3

2

W

O

G

09 Jan

Utrecht

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Dec

Heracles

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Dec

Sparta Rotterdam

A

3

2

W

O

G


Zwolle in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zwolle in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Zwolle’s performance as a guest.
Zwolle, as a guest, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 36.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Zwolle scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zwolle was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Waalwijk

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Utrecht

A

3

3

D

O

G

26 Jan

Heracles

H

2

2

D

O

G

22 Jan

Willem II

A

3

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

For Sittard

H

0

2

L

U

N

13 Jan

Feyenoord

A

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

AZ Alkmaar

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Den Haag

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Groningen and the red line for guest team, Zwolle.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Groningen

18%

22%

30%

29%

Zwolle

34%

32%

20%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.49 goals and Zwolle to score 1.01 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Groningen to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.7 goals and Zwolle to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.83 goals in the game and the home team Groningen to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

15.87

0-1

5.05

1

7.41

2-3

2.09

2

4.72

4+

3.09

3

3.75

Ov 1.5

1.25

4

5.41

Un 1.5

5.05

5

10.00

Ov 2.5

1.69

6+

25.64

Un 2.5

2.44

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.09

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.48

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-