Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Celta vs Elche at 12 February 2021
Eibar vs Valladolid at 13 February 2021
Sevilla vs Huesca at 13 February 2021
Barcelona vs Alaves at 13 February 2021
Granada vs Ath Madrid at 13 February 2021
Real Madrid vs Valencia at 14 February 2021
Levante vs Osasuna at 14 February 2021
Villarreal vs Betis at 14 February 2021
Getafe vs Sociedad at 14 February 2021
Cadiz vs Ath Bilbao at 15 February 2021
Celta vs Elche at 12 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Celta and Elche for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 12 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Celta |
1.50 |
2.29 |
-23.0 |
|
Draw |
4.05 |
3.76 |
1.9 |
|
Elche |
7.98 |
3.36 |
17.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.10 |
2.01 |
2.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.77 |
1.99 |
-6.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Elche, Over 2.5 (1.9 %, 17.2 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Celta in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Celta in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Celta’s performance at home.
Celta, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 53.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Celta scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Celta was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Feb |
Ath Madrid |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Granada |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Jan |
Betis |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
08 Jan |
Villarreal |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Real Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Huesca |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Elche in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Elche in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Elche’s performance as a guest.
Elche, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Elche scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Elche was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Villarreal |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Valencia |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Valladolid |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
11 Jan |
Getafe |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Real Madrid |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Osasuna |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Celta and the red line for guest team, Elche.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Celta |
23% |
33% |
24% |
20% |
|
Elche |
31% |
36% |
20% |
12% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Celta to score 1.8 goals and Elche to score 0.57 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Celta to win by 1.23 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Celta to score 1.4 goals and Elche to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.89 |
0-1 |
3.85 |
|
1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
3.94 |
|
3 |
4.12 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.21 |
Un 1.5 |
3.85 |
|
5 |
14.49 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
6+ |
41.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
Gg |
1.89 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |
|
NoG |
2.13 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.52 |
3.61 |
3.06 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.21 |
3.98 |
3.37 |
|
4+ goals |
2.27 |
3.53 |
3.63 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.23 |
3.81 |
3.46 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.61 |
3.06 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.92 |
6.90 |
2.99 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.86 |
2.59 |
3.78 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.27 |
3.53 |
3.63 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.31 |
3.85 |
3.26 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.68 |
2.73 |
3.84 |
|
No Goal |
1.98 |
6.53 |
2.92 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.06 |
5.67 |
2.96 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
6.53 |
2.86 |
Go to Top
Eibar vs Valladolid at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Eibar and Valladolid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Eibar |
2.06 |
1.99 |
1.7 |
|
Draw |
3.27 |
3.85 |
-4.6 |
|
Valladolid |
3.96 |
4.22 |
-1.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.50 |
1.97 |
10.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.56 |
2.03 |
-14.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Eibar, Over 2.5 (1.7 %, 10.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Eibar in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Eibar in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Eibar’s performance at home.
Eibar, at home, had one win, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 21.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Eibar scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Eibar was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
Osasuna |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Sevilla |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Celta |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
21 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Levante |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Granada |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Barcelona |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Alaves |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Valladolid in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Valladolid in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Valladolid’s performance as a guest.
Valladolid, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Valladolid scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Valladolid was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
05 Feb |
Alaves |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Jan |
Huesca |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Jan |
Levante |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Elche |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Valencia |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Getafe |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Cadiz |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
22 Dec |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Eibar and the red line for guest team, Valladolid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Eibar |
19% |
33% |
22% |
26% |
|
Valladolid |
33% |
41% |
17% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Eibar to score 1.29 goals and Valladolid to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.1 goals in the game and the home team Eibar to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Eibar to score 1.53 goals and Valladolid to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Eibar to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.62 |
0-1 |
3.95 |
|
1 |
5.29 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
3.88 |
|
3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
5.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |
|
5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.88 |
|
NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.30 |
3.95 |
3.20 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.99 |
3.65 |
4.49 |
|
4+ goals |
1.76 |
4.23 |
5.16 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.90 |
3.83 |
4.70 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.30 |
3.95 |
3.20 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.58 |
8.30 |
4.05 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.70 |
2.49 |
4.37 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.76 |
4.23 |
5.16 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.08 |
3.75 |
3.95 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.28 |
2.76 |
5.03 |
|
No Goal |
1.73 |
7.22 |
3.53 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.71 |
6.62 |
3.78 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
7.22 |
3.19 |
Go to Top
Sevilla vs Huesca at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Sevilla and Huesca for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Sevilla |
1.54 |
1.82 |
-10.0 |
|
Draw |
3.97 |
4.15 |
-1.1 |
|
Huesca |
6.88 |
4.74 |
6.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.01 |
3.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.99 |
-7.6 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Huesca, Over 2.5 (6.6 %, 3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Sevilla in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sevilla in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Sevilla’s performance at home.
Sevilla, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 73.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Sevilla scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sevilla was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Getafe |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Eibar |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Cadiz |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Alaves |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Sociedad |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Betis |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Villarreal |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Huesca in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huesca in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Huesca’s performance as a guest.
Huesca, as a guest, had one win, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 24.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huesca scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huesca was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Real Madrid |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Jan |
Valladolid |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Villarreal |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
20 Jan |
Getafe |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
11 Jan |
Betis |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Barcelona |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Celta |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Levante |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sevilla and the red line for guest team, Huesca.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Sevilla |
19% |
29% |
26% |
26% |
|
Huesca |
43% |
31% |
17% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.73 goals and Huesca to score 0.6 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sevilla to score 1.57 goals and Huesca to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Sevilla to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.73 |
|
1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.29 |
4+ |
4.17 |
|
3 |
3.88 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |
|
4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.73 |
|
5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.00 |
|
Gg |
2.17 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.17 |
|
NoG |
1.86 |
Un 3.5 |
1.32 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.14 |
3.23 |
4.47 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.64 |
5.46 |
4.86 |
|
4+ goals |
1.95 |
3.58 |
4.80 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.73 |
4.66 |
4.84 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.14 |
3.23 |
4.47 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.59 |
7.43 |
4.22 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.90 |
5.39 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.95 |
3.58 |
4.80 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.79 |
4.39 |
4.71 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.27 |
2.93 |
4.60 |
|
No Goal |
1.56 |
6.49 |
4.86 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
5.52 |
3.70 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.75 |
6.49 |
4.42 |
Go to Top
Barcelona vs Alaves at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Barcelona and Alaves for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Barcelona |
1.31 |
1.96 |
-25.3 |
|
Draw |
5.77 |
3.98 |
7.8 |
|
Alaves |
9.59 |
4.17 |
13.6 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.48 |
2.07 |
-19.3 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.59 |
1.93 |
13.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Alaves, Under 2.5 (7.8 %, 13.6 %, 13.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Barcelona in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Barcelona in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Barcelona’s performance at home.
Barcelona, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 21 points, 70.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Barcelona scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Barcelona was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
Betis |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Ath Bilbao |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Jan |
Elche |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Granada |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Ath Bilbao |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Huesca |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Eibar |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
22 Dec |
Valladolid |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
Alaves in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Alaves in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Alaves’s performance as a guest.
Alaves, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 30.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Alaves scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Alaves was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
05 Feb |
Valladolid |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Getafe |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Real Madrid |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Sevilla |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Cadiz |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Ath Madrid |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Dec |
Osasuna |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Dec |
Eibar |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Barcelona and the red line for guest team, Alaves.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Barcelona |
21% |
32% |
25% |
22% |
|
Alaves |
41% |
30% |
19% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barcelona to score 2.6 goals and Alaves to score 0.58 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.18 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 2.02 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barcelona to score 1.49 goals and Alaves to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Barcelona to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.56 |
|
1 |
5.15 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.22 |
4+ |
4.24 |
|
3 |
4.03 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.56 |
|
5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |
|
Gg |
2.15 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.24 |
|
NoG |
1.86 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.16 |
3.23 |
4.39 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.80 |