2021 02 12 League One (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Northampton vs Burton at 13 February 2021
Sunderland vs Doncaster at 13 February 2021
Shrewsbury vs Ipswich at 13 February 2021
Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town at 13 February 2021
Oxford vs Wigan at 13 February 2021
Bristol Rvs vs Swindon at 13 February 2021
Hull vs Milton Keynes Dons at 13 February 2021
Charlton vs Gillingham at 13 February 2021
Crewe vs Portsmouth at 13 February 2021
Blackpool vs Peterboro at 13 February 2021
AFC Wimbledon vs Rochdale at 13 February 2021
Lincoln vs Accrington at 13 February 2021


Northampton vs Burton at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Northampton and Burton for League One (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Northampton

2.50

2.57

-1.1

Draw

3.30

3.73

-3.5

Burton

2.79

2.92

-1.6

Over 2.5

1.99

2.00

-0.3

Under 2.5

1.83

2.00

-4.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Northampton in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Northampton in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Northampton’s performance at home.
Northampton, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 30.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Northampton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Northampton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Wigan

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Feb

Accrington

A

0

0

D

U

N

02 Feb

Blackpool

A

0

2

L

U

N

26 Jan

Fleetwood Town

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Lincoln

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Jan

Sunderland

H

0

0

D

U

N

29 Dec

Gillingham

H

3

1

W

O

G

19 Dec

Lincoln

H

0

4

L

O

N


Burton in the last six matches had 2 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burton in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Burton’s performance as a guest.
Burton, as a guest, had one win, 5 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Burton scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Hull

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Ipswich

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

Gillingham

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Oxford

H

1

5

L

O

G

29 Dec

Wigan

H

3

4

L

O

G

26 Dec

Lincoln

A

1

5

L

O

G

19 Dec

Doncaster

H

1

3

L

O

G

15 Dec

Ipswich

A

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Northampton and the red line for guest team, Burton.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Northampton

27%

31%

25%

17%

Burton

26%

37%

24%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.28 goals and Burton to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Northampton to score 1.32 goals and Burton to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.89

0-1

3.92

1

5.46

2-3

2.04

2

4.08

4+

3.95

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.21

Un 1.5

3.92

5

14.08

Ov 2.5

2.01

6+

47.62

Un 2.5

2.00

Gg

1.87

Ov 3.5

3.95

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.07

3.54

2.55

2-3 goals

2.44

4.26

2.82

4+ goals

2.43

3.16

3.67

Ov 1.5

2.44

3.81

3.06

Un 1.5

3.07

3.54

2.55

Ov 2.5

2.08

6.22

2.80

Un 2.5

3.38

2.67

3.03

Ov 3.5

2.43

3.16

3.67

Un 3.5

2.62

3.98

2.72

Goal-Goal

2.74

2.74

3.71

No Goal

2.40

6.44

2.33

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.15

5.24

2.91

NG+Un 2.5

2.60

6.44

2.33


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Sunderland vs Doncaster at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sunderland and Doncaster for League One (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sunderland

2.02

2.60

-11.0

Draw

3.43

3.61

-1.5

Doncaster

3.67

2.95

6.7

Over 2.5

2.13

2.12

0.2

Under 2.5

1.72

1.89

-5.2

As you can see we have positive expected value at Doncaster, Over 2.5 (6.7 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sunderland in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sunderland in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sunderland’s performance at home.
Sunderland, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 43.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sunderland scored in 12 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sunderland was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Shrewsbury

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Milton Keynes Dons

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Gillingham

H

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Ipswich

A

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Shrewsbury

H

1

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Plymouth

H

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

A

3

0

W

O

N

09 Jan

Hull

H

1

1

D

U

G


Doncaster in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Doncaster in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Doncaster’s performance as a guest.
Doncaster, as a guest, had 6 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Doncaster scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Doncaster was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Fleetwood Town

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Oxford

H

3

2

W

O

G

30 Jan

Lincoln

A

1

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

AFC Wimbledon

H

2

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Rochdale

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Swindon

A

2

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Shrewsbury

H

0

1

L

U

N

19 Dec

Burton

A

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sunderland and the red line for guest team, Doncaster.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sunderland

26%

36%

23%

15%

Doncaster

28%

37%

25%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.41 goals and Doncaster to score 0.92 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Sunderland to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sunderland to score 1.27 goals and Doncaster to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.09 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.72

1

5.10

2-3

1.99

2

3.85

4+

4.37

3

4.12

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.72

5

16.13

Ov 2.5

2.12

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

1.88

Ov 3.5

4.37

NoG

2.14

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.69

3.68

2.80

2-3 goals

2.65

3.84

2.76

4+ goals

2.44

3.14

3.69

Ov 1.5

2.58

3.59

3.00

Un 1.5

2.69

3.68

2.80

Ov 2.5

2.15

6.47

2.64

Un 2.5

3.23

2.59

3.29

Ov 3.5

2.44

3.14

3.69

Un 3.5

2.66

3.78

2.78

Goal-Goal

2.99

2.61

3.53

No Goal

2.27

6.41

2.48

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.26

5.51

2.66

NG+Un 2.5

2.43

6.41

2.47


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Shrewsbury vs Ipswich at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Shrewsbury and Ipswich for League One (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Shrewsbury

2.52

2.45

1.1

Draw

3.13

3.72

-5.1

Ipswich

2.90

3.10

-2.2

Over 2.5

2.35

2.03

6.7

Under 2.5

1.60

1.97

-11.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Shrewsbury, Over 2.5 (1.1 %, 6.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Shrewsbury in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Shrewsbury in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Shrewsbury’s performance at home.
Shrewsbury, at home, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Shrewsbury scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Shrewsbury was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Sunderland

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Swindon

A

1

0

W

U

N

02 Feb

Crewe

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Peterboro

H

2

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

Sunderland

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Blackpool

H

1

0

W

U

N

26 Dec

Wigan

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Dec

Doncaster

A

1

0

W

U

N


Ipswich in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ipswich in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Ipswich’s performance as a guest.
Ipswich, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Ipswich scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ipswich was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Peterboro

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Blackpool

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Crewe

A

1

1

D

U

G

26 Jan

Sunderland

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Peterboro

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Burton

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Swindon

H

2

3

L

O

G

15 Dec

Burton

H

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Shrewsbury and the red line for guest team, Ipswich.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Shrewsbury

26%

32%

25%

17%

Ipswich

29%

37%

23%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.14 goals and Ipswich to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Shrewsbury to score 1.34 goals and Ipswich to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.83

1

5.35

2-3

2.03

2

4.03

4+

4.05

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.33

Un 1.5

3.83

5

14.49

Ov 2.5

2.03

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.96

Gg

1.89

Ov 3.5

4.05

NoG

2.12

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.81

3.53

2.78

2-3 goals

2.33

4.18

3.02

4+ goals

2.40

3.21

3.69

Ov 1.5

2.35

3.79

3.22

Un 1.5

2.81

3.53

2.78

Ov 2.5

2.02

6.39

2.88

Un 2.5

3.10

2.65

3.33

Ov 3.5

2.40

3.21

3.69

Un 3.5

2.47

3.93

2.93

Goal-Goal

2.73

2.72

3.76

No Goal

2.20

6.36

2.57

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.12

5.35

2.92

NG+Un 2.5

2.38

6.36

2.56


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Plymouth vs Fleetwood Town at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Plymouth and Fleetwood Town for League One (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Plymouth

2.52

2.29

4.0

Draw

3.37

3.73

-2.9

Fleetwood Town

2.71

3.39

-7.4

Over 2.5

1.93

2.06

-3.3

Under 2.5

1.88

1.94

-1.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Plymouth (4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Plymouth in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Plymouth in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Plymouth’s performance at home.
Plymouth, at home, had 7 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 25 points, 59.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Plymouth scored in 13 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Plymouth was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Accrington

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Portsmouth

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Accrington

H

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Swindon

A

2

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Sunderland

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Crewe

H

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Gillingham

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Oxford

H

2

3

L

O

G


Fleetwood Town in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Fleetwood Town in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Fleetwood Town’s performance as a guest.
Fleetwood Town, as a guest, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 30.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Fleetwood Town scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Fleetwood Town was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Doncaster

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Bristol Rvs

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Oxford

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Northampton

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Wigan

A

0

0

D

U

N

19 Jan

Milton Keynes Dons

A

1

3

L

O

G

16 Jan

Portsmouth

H

0

1

L

U

N

26 Dec

Crewe

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Plymouth and the red line for guest team, Fleetwood Town.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Plymouth

23%

33%

26%

18%

Fleetwood Town

32%

36%

21%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Plymouth to score 1.29 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.22 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.51 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Plymouth to score 1.38 goals and Fleetwood Town to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.77

1

5.26

2-3

2.02

2

4.00

4+

4.18

3

4.08

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.49

Un 1.5

3.77

5

15.15

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

1.92

Ov 3.5

4.18

NoG

2.09

Un 3.5

1.32

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.52

3.53

3.12

2-3 goals