Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Oldham vs Exeter at 13 February 2021
Port Vale vs Newport County at 13 February 2021
Morecambe vs Scunthorpe at 13 February 2021
Harrogate vs Leyton Orient at 13 February 2021
Grimsby vs Tranmere at 13 February 2021
Colchester vs Mansfield at 13 February 2021
Carlisle vs Crawley Town at 13 February 2021
Cambridge vs Southend at 13 February 2021
Bradford vs Salford at 13 February 2021
Bolton vs Stevenage at 13 February 2021
Forest Green vs Barrow at 13 February 2021
Walsall vs Cheltenham at 13 February 2021
Oldham vs Exeter at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Oldham and Exeter for League Two (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Oldham |
3.09 |
2.36 |
10.0 |
|
Draw |
3.25 |
3.56 |
-2.7 |
|
Exeter |
2.34 |
3.38 |
-13.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.76 |
2.21 |
-11.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.06 |
1.82 |
6.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Oldham, Under 2.5 (10 %, 6.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Oldham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Oldham in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Oldham’s performance at home.
Oldham, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 9 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 31.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Oldham scored in 11 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 10 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 11 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Oldham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Salford |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Cheltenham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Walsall |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Jan |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Grimsby |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Harrogate |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Newport County |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
Exeter in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Exeter in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Exeter’s performance as a guest.
Exeter, as a guest, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Exeter scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Exeter was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Bradford |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Feb |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Carlisle |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Morecambe |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Stevenage |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Harrogate |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
12 Jan |
Bolton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Forest Green |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Oldham and the red line for guest team, Exeter.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Oldham |
22% |
41% |
18% |
18% |
|
Exeter |
32% |
37% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Oldham to score 1.22 goals and Exeter to score 1.48 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.7 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Oldham to score 1.32 goals and Exeter to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.24 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.70 |
0-1 |
3.44 |
|
1 |
4.59 |
2-3 |
2.03 |
|
2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.57 |
|
3 |
4.27 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.44 |
|
5 |
18.18 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.21 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
Gg |
1.91 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |
|
NoG |
2.09 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.17 |
3.99 |
3.46 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.65 |
3.22 |
3.22 |
|
4+ goals |
2.11 |
3.98 |
3.65 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.45 |
3.42 |
3.34 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.17 |
3.99 |
3.46 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.96 |
8.24 |
2.71 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.84 |
2.43 |
4.22 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.98 |
3.65 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.45 |
3.46 |
3.30 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.05 |
2.52 |
3.64 |
|
No Goal |
1.90 |
6.55 |
3.12 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
6.75 |
2.58 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.05 |
6.55 |
3.05 |
Go to Top
Port Vale vs Newport County at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Port Vale and Newport County for League Two (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Port Vale |
2.68 |
2.51 |
2.5 |
|
Draw |
3.02 |
3.58 |
-5.2 |
|
Newport County |
2.81 |
3.10 |
-3.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.05 |
2.22 |
-3.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.82 |
-1.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Port Vale (2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Port Vale in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Port Vale in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Port Vale’s performance at home.
Port Vale, at home, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 42.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Port Vale scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Port Vale was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Tranmere |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Southend |
H |
5 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Scunthorpe |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Forest Green |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
09 Jan |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Mansfield |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Bradford |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Newport County in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Newport County in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Newport County’s performance as a guest.
Newport County, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 40.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Newport County scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 10 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Newport County was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Feb |
Southend |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Grimsby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Harrogate |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Cheltenham |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Salford |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Crawley Town |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Oldham |
H |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Port Vale and the red line for guest team, Newport County.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Port Vale |
26% |
38% |
21% |
15% |
|
Newport County |
31% |
36% |
21% |
11% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.22 goals and Newport County to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.04 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Port Vale to score 1.26 goals and Newport County to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.41 |
|
1 |
4.72 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
3.89 |
4+ |
4.61 |
|
3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.41 |
|
5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
Gg |
1.96 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.61 |
|
NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.48 |
3.62 |
3.12 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.55 |
3.60 |
3.02 |
|
4+ goals |
2.47 |
3.50 |
3.24 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.52 |
3.57 |
3.09 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.48 |
3.62 |
3.12 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
7.26 |
2.57 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.97 |
2.53 |
3.72 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.47 |
3.50 |
3.24 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.53 |
3.61 |
3.06 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.08 |
2.57 |
3.49 |
|
No Goal |
2.11 |
6.06 |
2.77 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.26 |
6.02 |
2.55 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.06 |
2.80 |
Go to Top
Morecambe vs Scunthorpe at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Morecambe and Scunthorpe for League Two (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Morecambe |
2.11 |
2.34 |
-4.7 |
|
Draw |
3.40 |
3.65 |
-2.0 |
|
Scunthorpe |
3.42 |
3.34 |
0.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.19 |
-2.4 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.84 |
-2.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Scunthorpe (0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Morecambe in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Morecambe in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Morecambe’s performance at home.
Morecambe, at home, had 6 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 22 points, 56.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Morecambe scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Morecambe was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Feb |
Bolton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Stevenage |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Tranmere |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Exeter |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Colchester |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Walsall |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Leyton Orient |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Scunthorpe in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Scunthorpe in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Scunthorpe’s performance as a guest.
Scunthorpe, as a guest, had 5 wins, no draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Scunthorpe scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Scunthorpe was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
29 Jan |
Colchester |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Port Vale |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Grimsby |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Barrow |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Jan |
Salford |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Stevenage |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Walsall |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Mansfield |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Morecambe and the red line for guest team, Scunthorpe.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Morecambe |
26% |
33% |
26% |
16% |
|
Scunthorpe |
32% |
37% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.39 goals and Scunthorpe to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Morecambe to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.31 goals and Scunthorpe to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.05 |
0-1 |
3.51 |
|
1 |
4.95 |
2-3 |
2.01 |
|
2 |
3.88 |
4+ |
4.59 |
|
3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.51 |
|
5 |
17.24 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.19 |
|
6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.84 |
|
Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.59 |
|
NoG |
2.01 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.66 |
3.43 |
3.00 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.16 |
4.07 |
3.43 |
|
4+ goals |
2.42 |
3.16 |
3.69 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.23 |
3.74 |
3.50 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.66 |
3.43 |
3.00 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
6.62 |
3.01 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.84 |
2.65 |
3.69 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.42 |
3.16 |
3.69 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.32 |
3.81 |
3.26 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.70 |
2.63 |
3.99 |
|
No Goal |
2.06 |
5.99 |
2.87 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.05 |
5.52 |
3.02 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.20 |
5.99 |
2.86 |
Go to Top
Harrogate vs Leyton Orient at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Harrogate and Leyton Orient for League Two (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Harrogate |
2.32 |
2.81 |
-7.5 |
|
Draw |
3.34 |
3.64 |
-2.5 |
|
Leyton Orient |
3.06 |
2.71 |
4.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.17 |
-2.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.75 |
1.85 |
-3.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Leyton Orient (4.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Harrogate in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Harrogate in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Harrogate’s performance at home.
Harrogate, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Harrogate scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Harrogate was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Feb |
Cheltenham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Crawley Town |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Newport County |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Tranmere |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
22 Jan |
Salford |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Exeter |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Oldham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Leyton Orient in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, Leyton Orient in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Leyton Orient’s performance as a guest.
Leyton Orient, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 35.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Leyton Orient scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leyton Orient was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Colchester |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Feb |
Crawley Town |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Bolton |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Forest Green |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Morecambe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Salford |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Southend |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Cambridge |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Harrogate and the red line for guest team, Leyton Orient.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Harrogate |
30% |
34% |
23% |
13% |
|
Leyton Orient |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.3 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Harrogate to score 1.19 goals and Leyton Orient to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.90 |
0-1 |
3.51 |
|
1 |
4.98 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
3.94 |
4+ |
4.48 |
|
3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.40 |
|
4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.51 |
|
5 |
16.39 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.18 |
|
6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
Gg |
1.99 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.48 |
|
NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.00 |
3.39 |
2.69 |
|
2-3 goals |