2021 02 12 Ligue One (France)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Lyon vs Montpellier at 13 February 2021
Paris SG vs Nice at 13 February 2021
Reims vs Lens at 13 February 2021
Metz vs Strasbourg at 14 February 2021
Angers vs Nantes at 14 February 2021
Bordeaux vs Marseille at 14 February 2021
Dijon vs Nimes at 14 February 2021
Monaco vs Lorient at 14 February 2021
Rennes vs St Etienne at 14 February 2021
Lille vs Brest at 14 February 2021


Lyon vs Montpellier at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Lyon and Montpellier for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Lyon

1.39

1.75

-14.8

Draw

5.17

4.24

4.2

Montpellier

7.33

5.24

5.4

Over 2.5

1.48

2.19

-21.9

Under 2.5

2.60

1.84

15.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Montpellier, Under 2.5 (4.2 %, 5.4 %, 15.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Lyon in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lyon in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lyon’s performance at home.
Lyon, at home, had 8 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 27 points, 75.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lyon scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lyon was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Strasbourg

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Feb

Dijon

A

1

0

W

U

N

29 Jan

Bordeaux

H

2

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

St Etienne

A

5

0

W

O

N

17 Jan

Metz

H

0

1

L

U

N

09 Jan

Rennes

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Jan

Lens

H

3

2

W

O

G

23 Dec

Nantes

H

3

0

W

O

N


Montpellier in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Montpellier in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Montpellier’s performance as a guest.
Montpellier, as a guest, had 4 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Montpellier scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Montpellier was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Feb

Dijon

H

4

2

W

O

G

03 Feb

Metz

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Lens

H

1

2

L

O

G

22 Jan

Paris SG

A

0

4

L

O

N

15 Jan

Monaco

H

2

3

L

O

G

09 Jan

Nantes

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Jan

Marseille

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Dec

Lille

H

2

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Lyon and the red line for guest team, Montpellier.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Lyon

22%

18%

41%

18%

Montpellier

47%

31%

15%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lyon to score 2.48 goals and Montpellier to score 0.71 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.18 goals in the game and the home team Lyon to win by 1.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lyon to score 1.55 goals and Montpellier to score 0.83 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Lyon to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.52

0-1

3.83

1

6.41

2-3

1.86

2

3.53

4+

5.00

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

7.69

Un 1.5

3.83

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.19

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.84

Gg

2.43

Ov 3.5

5.00

NoG

1.70

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.00

2.49

3.78

2-3 goals

1.33

9.46

7.00

4+ goals

2.47

2.70

4.44

Ov 1.5

1.52

5.64

6.06

Un 1.5

3.00

2.49

3.78

Ov 2.5

1.56

6.16

5.12

Un 2.5

1.94

3.36

5.33

Ov 3.5

2.47

2.70

4.44

Un 3.5

1.63

4.94

5.48

Goal-Goal

1.97

3.15

5.72

No Goal

1.62

5.60

4.94

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.70

4.80

4.93

NG+Un 2.5

1.74

5.60

4.77


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Paris SG vs Nice at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Paris SG and Nice for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Paris SG

1.21

1.86

-28.9

Draw

7.28

3.95

11.6

Nice

13.27

4.78

13.4

Over 2.5

1.37

2.11

-25.6

Under 2.5

3.01

1.90

19.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Nice, Under 2.5 (11.6 %, 13.4 %, 19.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Paris SG in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Paris SG in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Paris SG’s performance at home.
Paris SG, at home, had 9 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 28 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Paris SG scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Paris SG was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Feb

Marseille

A

2

0

W

U

N

03 Feb

Nimes

H

3

0

W

O

N

31 Jan

Lorient

A

2

3

L

O

G

22 Jan

Montpellier

H

4

0

W

O

N

16 Jan

Angers

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Brest

H

3

0

W

O

N

06 Jan

St Etienne

A

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Strasbourg

H

4

0

W

O

N


Nice in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nice in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nice’s performance as a guest.
Nice, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 54.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Nice scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nice was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Feb

Angers

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Feb

Monaco

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

St Etienne

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Lens

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Bordeaux

H

0

3

L

O

N

09 Jan

Metz

A

1

1

D

U

G

06 Jan

Brest

A

0

2

L

U

N

23 Dec

Lorient

H

2

2

D

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Paris SG and the red line for guest team, Nice.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Paris SG

18%

35%

22%

25%

Nice

40%

36%

19%

6%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Paris SG to score 2.99 goals and Nice to score 0.48 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.47 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 2.51 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Paris SG to score 1.53 goals and Nice to score 0.9 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Paris SG to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.70

0-1

3.58

1

4.85

2-3

2.00

2

4.07

4+

4.50

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.71

Un 1.5

3.58

5

16.95

Ov 2.5

2.11

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.90

Gg

2.04

Ov 3.5

4.50

NoG

1.96

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

1.98

3.82

4.29

2-3 goals

1.90

3.99

4.46

4+ goals

1.64

4.04

6.94

Ov 1.5

1.82

4.01

5.01

Un 1.5

1.98

3.82

4.29

Ov 2.5

1.53

8.64

4.36

Un 2.5

2.31

2.65

5.25

Ov 3.5

1.64

4.04

6.94

Un 3.5

1.93

3.93

4.40

Goal-Goal

2.32

2.73

4.96

No Goal

1.56

6.97

4.63

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.73

6.65

3.70

NG+Un 2.5

1.76

6.97

4.00


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Reims vs Lens at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Reims and Lens for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Reims

3.00

2.50

6.7

Draw

3.06

3.50

-4.1

Lens

2.57

3.18

-7.5

Over 2.5

2.36

2.53

-2.8

Under 2.5

1.61

1.65

-1.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Reims (6.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Reims in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Reims in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Reims’s performance at home.
Reims, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Reims scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Reims was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Lorient

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Feb

Angers

H

0

0

D

U

N

31 Jan

Strasbourg

A

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Brest

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Lille

A

1

2

L

O

G

09 Jan

St Etienne

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Dijon

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Dec

Bordeaux

A

3

1

W

O

G


Lens in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lens in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Lens’s performance as a guest.
Lens, as a guest, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lens scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lens was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Rennes

H

0

0

D

U

N

03 Feb

Marseille

H

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Montpellier

A

2

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Nice

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Jan

Marseille

A

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Nantes

A

1

1

D

U

G

09 Jan

Strasbourg

H

0

1

L

U

N

06 Jan

Lyon

A

2

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Reims and the red line for guest team, Lens.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Reims

29%

37%

24%

10%

Lens

36%

36%

14%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Reims to score 1.03 goals and Lens to score 1.15 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.12 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Reims to score 1.16 goals and Lens to score 1.04 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.12 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.62

0-1

2.93

1

4.22

2-3

2.09

2

3.79

4+

5.59

3

4.65

Ov 1.5

1.52

4

8.33

Un 1.5

2.93

5

21.74

Ov 2.5

2.54

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.65

Gg

2.20

Ov 3.5

5.59

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.22

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.54

3.28

3.31

2-3 goals

2.23

3.57

3.68

4+ goals

3.51

3.73

2.24

Ov 1.5

2.47

3.62

3.13

Un 1.5

2.54

3.28

3.31

Ov 2.5

2.23

8.21

2.33

Un 2.5

2.71

2.54

4.20

Ov 3.5

3.51

3.73

2.24

Un 3.5

2.35

3.45

3.52

Goal-Goal

3.24

2.49

3.44

No Goal

2.10

5.24

3.01

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.29

6.67

2.42

NG+Un 2.5

2.11

5.24

3.27


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Metz vs Strasbourg at 14 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Metz and Strasbourg for Ligue One (France), which will take place on 14 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Metz

3.01

2.16

13.1

Draw

3.00

3.66

-6.0

Strasbourg

2.63

3.77

-11.5

Over 2.5

2.38

2.31

1.3

Under 2.5

1.62

1.76

-4.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Metz, Over 2.5 (13.1 %, 1.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage increases slightly, 2%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Metz in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Metz in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Metz’s performance at home.
Metz, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Metz scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Metz was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Feb

St Etienne

A

0

1

L

U

N

03 Feb

Montpellier

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Brest

A

4

2

W

O

G

24 Jan

Nantes

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Lyon

A

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Nice

H

1

1

D

U

G

06 Jan

Bordeaux

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Dec

Rennes

A

0

1

L

U

N


Strasbourg in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Strasbourg in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Strasbourg’s performance as a guest.
Strasbourg, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 36.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Strasbourg scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Strasbourg was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Lyon

A

0

3

L

O

N

03 Feb

Brest

H

2

2

D

O

G

31 Jan

Reims

H

0

1

L

U

N

24 Jan

Dijon

A

1

1

D

U

G

17 Jan

St Etienne

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Lens

A

1

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Nimes

H

5

0

W

O

N

23 Dec

Paris SG

A

0

4

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Metz and the red line for guest team, Strasbourg.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Metz

24%

33%

28%

15%

Strasbourg

37%

36%

18%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Metz to score 1.04 goals and Strasbourg to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Metz to score 1.33 goals and Strasbourg to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Metz to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

11.11

0-1

3.33

1

4.76

2-3

1.99

2

3.76

4+

5.13

3

4.24

Ov 1.5

1.43

4

7.58

Un 1.5

3.33

5

20.00

Ov 2.5

2.32

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.77

Gg

2.11

Ov 3.5

5.13

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.46