# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Man City vs Tottenham at 13 February 2021**** Leicester vs Liverpool at 13 February 2021**** Crystal Palace vs Burnley at 13 February 2021**** Brighton vs Aston Villa at 13 February 2021**** West Brom vs Man United at 14 February 2021**** Southampton vs Wolves at 14 February 2021**** Arsenal vs Leeds at 14 February 2021**** Everton vs Fulham at 14 February 2021**** West Ham vs Sheffield United at 15 February 2021**** Chelsea vs Newcastle at 15 February 2021**

###
Man City vs Tottenham at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Man City** and **Tottenham** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Man City |
1.34 |
1.86 |
-20.9 |

Draw |
5.68 |
3.83 |
8.5 |

Tottenham |
8.67 |
5.00 |
8.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.63 |
2.16 |
-15.1 |

Under 2.5 |
2.35 |
1.86 |
11.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Draw, Tottenham, Under 2.5 (8.5 %, 8.5 %, 11.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Man City** in the **last six** matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Man City** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance** at home**.

Man City,** at home**, had 8 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 78.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Man City** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Man City was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Feb |
Liverpool |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Burnley |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
West Brom |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

20 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

13 Jan |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Tottenham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tottenham** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Tottenham’s performance** as a guest**.

Tottenham,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Tottenham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tottenham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Feb |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Feb |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Jan |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Sheffield United |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

13 Jan |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Leeds |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Dec |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Man City** and the red line for guest team, **Tottenham. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Man City |
16% |
42% |
16% |
26% |

Tottenham |
41% |
36% |
16% |
7% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Man City** to score **2.36 ** goals and **Tottenham** to score **0.57 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.93** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **1.79** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Man City** to score **1.53 ** goals and **Tottenham** to score **0.89 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and the home team **Man City ** to win by **0.64** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
15.62 |
0-1 |
3.40 |

1 |
4.35 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
4.55 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.40 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
1.70 |
4.59 |
5.16 |

2-3 goals |
2.11 |
3.16 |
4.76 |

4+ goals |
1.62 |
5.12 |
5.37 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.93 |
3.58 |
4.94 |

Un 1.5 |
1.70 |
4.59 |
5.16 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.53 |
10.74 |
3.92 |

Un 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.47 |
6.56 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.62 |
5.12 |
5.37 |

Un 3.5 |
1.94 |
3.58 |
4.91 |

Goal-Goal |
2.57 |
2.53 |
4.65 |

No Goal |
1.46 |
7.84 |
5.40 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
8.00 |
3.21 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.61 |
7.84 |
4.68 |

####
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###
Leicester vs Liverpool at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Leicester** and **Liverpool** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Leicester |
3.52 |
2.54 |
11.0 |

Draw |
3.50 |
3.76 |
-2.0 |

Liverpool |
2.12 |
2.94 |
-13.2 |

Over 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.99 |
-7.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.01 |
3.2 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Leicester, Under 2.5 (11 %, 3.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Leicester** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Leicester** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance** at home**.

Leicester,** at home**, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Leicester scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Leicester was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Feb |
Wolves |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
Fulham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Everton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Jan |
Chelsea |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Southampton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Jan |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Dec |
Crystal Palace |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Liverpool** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Liverpool** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Liverpool’s performance** as a guest**.

Liverpool,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Liverpool scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Liverpool was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Feb |
Man City |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Brighton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
West Ham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Jan |
Tottenham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Jan |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Man United |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Newcastle |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Leicester** and the red line for guest team, **Liverpool. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Leicester |
27% |
35% |
17% |
22% |

Liverpool |
29% |
34% |
21% |
15% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Leicester** to score **1.13 ** goals and **Liverpool** to score **1.63 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.77** goals in the game and the guest team **Liverpool ** to win by **0.5** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Leicester** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Liverpool** to score **1.22 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.11** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.68 |

1 |
5.15 |
2-3 |
2.17 |

2 |
4.44 |
4+ |
3.75 |

3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.68 |

5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |

6+ |
30.30 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |

Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.75 |

NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.67 |
3.49 |
2.96 |

2-3 goals |
2.67 |
3.87 |
2.72 |

4+ goals |
2.24 |
3.87 |
3.38 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.87 |
2.93 |

Un 1.5 |
2.67 |
3.49 |
2.96 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
7.28 |
2.61 |

Un 2.5 |
3.27 |
2.52 |
3.36 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.24 |
3.87 |
3.38 |

Un 3.5 |
2.67 |
3.72 |
2.80 |

Goal-Goal |
2.91 |
2.76 |
3.41 |

No Goal |
2.24 |
6.17 |
2.56 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
5.78 |
2.62 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.49 |
6.17 |
2.55 |

####
Go to Top

###
Crystal Palace vs Burnley at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Crystal Palace** and **Burnley** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Crystal Palace |
2.40 |
2.01 |
8.1 |

Draw |
3.16 |
3.86 |
-5.7 |

Burnley |
3.25 |
4.12 |
-6.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.41 |
2.11 |
5.9 |

Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.90 |
-10.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Crystal Palace, Over 2.5 (8.1 %, 5.9 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Crystal Palace** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Crystal Palace** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance** at home**.

Crystal Palace,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
West Ham |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

14 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Sheffield United |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Burnley** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Burnley** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance** as a guest**.

Burnley,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Burnley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Burnley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Feb |
Man City |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

21 Jan |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
West Ham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Jan |
Man United |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Crystal Palace** and the red line for guest team, **Burnley. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Crystal Palace |
20% |
31% |
34% |
16% |

Burnley |
36% |
36% |
18% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Crystal Palace** to score **1.19 ** goals and **Burnley** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.15** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Crystal Palace** to score **1.45 ** goals and **Burnley** to score **1.01 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.46** goals in the game and the home team **Crystal Palace ** to win by **0.44** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.91 |

1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
1.91 |

2 |
3.70 |
4+ |
4.52 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.91 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.25 |
3.61 |
3.61 |

2-3 goals |
1.74 |
4.64 |
4.76 |

4+ goals |
2.63 |
2.95 |
3.56 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.94 |
3.96 |
4.33 |

Un 1.5 |
2.25 |
3.61 |
3.61 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |
6.33 |
3.47 |

Un 2.5 |
2.23 |
2.86 |
4.96 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.63 |
2.95 |
3.56 |

Un 3.5 |
1.88 |
4.24 |
4.31 |

Goal-Goal |
2.49 |
2.72 |
4.34 |

No Goal |
1.67 |
6.89 |
3.91 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
5.32 |
3.38 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.75 |
6.89 |
3.90 |

####
Go to Top

###
Brighton vs Aston Villa at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Brighton** and **Aston Villa** for **Premier League (England)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Brighton |
2.79 |
3.41 |
-6.5 |

Draw |
3.38 |
4.02 |
-4.7 |

Aston Villa |
2.57 |
2.18 |
7.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.87 |
-1.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.16 |
-2.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Aston Villa (7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Brighton** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Brighton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance** at home**.

Brighton,** at home**, had one win, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Brighton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Brighton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Feb |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Fulham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Wolves |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

**Aston Villa** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Aston Villa** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance** as a guest**.

Aston Villa,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

03 Feb |
West Ham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Burnley |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Newcastle |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Jan |
Man United |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

28 Dec |
Chelsea |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Brighton** and the red line for guest team, **Aston Villa. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Brighton |
36% |
23% |
31% |
10% |

Aston Villa |
22% |
31% |
25% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Brighton** to score **1.29 ** goals and **Aston Villa** to score **1.37 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.66** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.08** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Brighton** to score **1.16 ** goals and **Aston Villa** to score **1.48 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.64** goals in the game and the guest team **Aston Villa ** to win by **0.32** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
4.22 |

1 |
6.21 |
2-3 |
2.06 |

2 |
4.39 |
4+ |
3.57 |

3 |
3.89 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |

4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.22 |

5 |
10.53 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |

6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.15 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.57 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |