Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Man City vs Tottenham at 13 February 2021
Leicester vs Liverpool at 13 February 2021
Crystal Palace vs Burnley at 13 February 2021
Brighton vs Aston Villa at 13 February 2021
West Brom vs Man United at 14 February 2021
Southampton vs Wolves at 14 February 2021
Arsenal vs Leeds at 14 February 2021
Everton vs Fulham at 14 February 2021
West Ham vs Sheffield United at 15 February 2021
Chelsea vs Newcastle at 15 February 2021
Man City vs Tottenham at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Man City and Tottenham for Premier League (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Man City |
1.34 |
1.86 |
-20.9 |
|
Draw |
5.68 |
3.83 |
8.5 |
|
Tottenham |
8.67 |
5.00 |
8.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.63 |
2.16 |
-15.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.35 |
1.86 |
11.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Tottenham, Under 2.5 (8.5 %, 8.5 %, 11.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Man City in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Man City in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Man City’s performance at home.
Man City, at home, had 8 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 26 points, 78.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Man City scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Man City was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
Liverpool |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
03 Feb |
Burnley |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
West Brom |
A |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
20 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Crystal Palace |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
13 Jan |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Tottenham in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tottenham in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Tottenham’s performance as a guest.
Tottenham, as a guest, had 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 18 points, 60.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Tottenham scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tottenham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
West Brom |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
04 Feb |
Chelsea |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Brighton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Jan |
Liverpool |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
Sheffield United |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
13 Jan |
Fulham |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Leeds |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
27 Dec |
Wolves |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Man City and the red line for guest team, Tottenham.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Man City |
16% |
42% |
16% |
26% |
|
Tottenham |
41% |
36% |
16% |
7% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Man City to score 2.36 goals and Tottenham to score 0.57 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.93 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 1.79 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Man City to score 1.53 goals and Tottenham to score 0.89 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Man City to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.62 |
0-1 |
3.40 |
|
1 |
4.35 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.10 |
4+ |
4.55 |
|
3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |
|
4 |
6.67 |
Un 1.5 |
3.40 |
|
5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |
|
6+ |
55.56 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.55 |
|
NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
1.70 |
4.59 |
5.16 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.11 |
3.16 |
4.76 |
|
4+ goals |
1.62 |
5.12 |
5.37 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.93 |
3.58 |
4.94 |
|
Un 1.5 |
1.70 |
4.59 |
5.16 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.53 |
10.74 |
3.92 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.47 |
6.56 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.62 |
5.12 |
5.37 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.94 |
3.58 |
4.91 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.57 |
2.53 |
4.65 |
|
No Goal |
1.46 |
7.84 |
5.40 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
8.00 |
3.21 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.61 |
7.84 |
4.68 |
Go to Top
Leicester vs Liverpool at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Leicester and Liverpool for Premier League (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Leicester |
3.52 |
2.54 |
11.0 |
|
Draw |
3.50 |
3.76 |
-2.0 |
|
Liverpool |
2.12 |
2.94 |
-13.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.99 |
-7.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.01 |
3.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Leicester, Under 2.5 (11 %, 3.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Leicester in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Leicester in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Leicester’s performance at home.
Leicester, at home, had 5 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 48.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Leicester scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Leicester was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
Wolves |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
03 Feb |
Fulham |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Leeds |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Jan |
Everton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Chelsea |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Southampton |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Crystal Palace |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Liverpool in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Liverpool in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Liverpool’s performance as a guest.
Liverpool, as a guest, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Liverpool scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Liverpool was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
Man City |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
03 Feb |
Brighton |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
31 Jan |
West Ham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Jan |
Tottenham |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Jan |
Burnley |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Man United |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Southampton |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Dec |
Newcastle |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Leicester and the red line for guest team, Liverpool.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Leicester |
27% |
35% |
17% |
22% |
|
Liverpool |
29% |
34% |
21% |
15% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leicester to score 1.13 goals and Liverpool to score 1.63 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the guest team Liverpool to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leicester to score 1.33 goals and Liverpool to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.82 |
0-1 |
3.68 |
|
1 |
5.15 |
2-3 |
2.17 |
|
2 |
4.44 |
4+ |
3.75 |
|
3 |
4.26 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |
|
4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
3.68 |
|
5 |
14.08 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.99 |
|
6+ |
30.30 |
Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
|
Gg |
1.93 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.75 |
|
NoG |
2.08 |
Un 3.5 |
1.37 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.67 |
3.49 |
2.96 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.67 |
3.87 |
2.72 |
|
4+ goals |
2.24 |
3.87 |
3.38 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.50 |
3.87 |
2.93 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.67 |
3.49 |
2.96 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |
7.28 |
2.61 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.27 |
2.52 |
3.36 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.24 |
3.87 |
3.38 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.67 |
3.72 |
2.80 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.91 |
2.76 |
3.41 |
|
No Goal |
2.24 |
6.17 |
2.56 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
5.78 |
2.62 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.49 |
6.17 |
2.55 |
Go to Top
Crystal Palace vs Burnley at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Crystal Palace and Burnley for Premier League (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Crystal Palace |
2.40 |
2.01 |
8.1 |
|
Draw |
3.16 |
3.86 |
-5.7 |
|
Burnley |
3.25 |
4.12 |
-6.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.41 |
2.11 |
5.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.59 |
1.90 |
-10.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Crystal Palace, Over 2.5 (8.1 %, 5.9 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Crystal Palace in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Crystal Palace in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Crystal Palace’s performance at home.
Crystal Palace, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Crystal Palace scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Crystal Palace was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Feb |
Leeds |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Feb |
Newcastle |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Wolves |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
West Ham |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
17 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
14 Jan |
Arsenal |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Sheffield United |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Dec |
Leicester |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Burnley in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Burnley in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Burnley’s performance as a guest.
Burnley, as a guest, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Burnley scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Burnley was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Brighton |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Feb |
Man City |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Chelsea |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
27 Jan |
Aston Villa |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Jan |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
West Ham |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Jan |
Man United |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
29 Dec |
Sheffield United |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Crystal Palace and the red line for guest team, Burnley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Crystal Palace |
20% |
31% |
34% |
16% |
|
Burnley |
36% |
36% |
18% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 1.19 goals and Burnley to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.15 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crystal Palace to score 1.45 goals and Burnley to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Crystal Palace to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.91 |
|
1 |
5.41 |
2-3 |
1.91 |
|
2 |
3.70 |
4+ |
4.52 |
|
3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.85 |
Un 1.5 |
3.91 |
|
5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.11 |
|
6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.52 |
|
NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.25 |
3.61 |
3.61 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.74 |
4.64 |
4.76 |
|
4+ goals |
2.63 |
2.95 |
3.56 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.94 |
3.96 |
4.33 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.25 |
3.61 |
3.61 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.81 |
6.33 |
3.47 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.23 |
2.86 |
4.96 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.63 |
2.95 |
3.56 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.88 |
4.24 |
4.31 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.49 |
2.72 |
4.34 |
|
No Goal |
1.67 |
6.89 |
3.91 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.94 |
5.32 |
3.38 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.75 |
6.89 |
3.90 |
Go to Top
Brighton vs Aston Villa at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Brighton and Aston Villa for Premier League (England), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Brighton |
2.79 |
3.41 |
-6.5 |
|
Draw |
3.38 |
4.02 |
-4.7 |
|
Aston Villa |
2.57 |
2.18 |
7.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.82 |
1.87 |
-1.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.04 |
2.16 |
-2.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Aston Villa (7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Brighton in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Brighton in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Brighton’s performance at home.
Brighton, at home, had one win, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Brighton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Brighton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Burnley |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Feb |
Liverpool |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Tottenham |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Jan |
Fulham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Leeds |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Wolves |
H |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Arsenal |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
Aston Villa in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aston Villa in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Aston Villa’s performance as a guest.
Aston Villa, as a guest, had 6 wins, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 57.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Aston Villa scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aston Villa was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Arsenal |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Feb |
West Ham |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Southampton |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
27 Jan |
Burnley |
A |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Newcastle |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
20 Jan |
Man City |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
01 Jan |
Man United |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Chelsea |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Brighton and the red line for guest team, Aston Villa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Brighton |
36% |
23% |
31% |
10% |
|
Aston Villa |
22% |
31% |
25% |
22% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brighton to score 1.29 goals and Aston Villa to score 1.37 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.08 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brighton to score 1.16 goals and Aston Villa to score 1.48 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the guest team Aston Villa to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
4.22 |
|
1 |
6.21 |
2-3 |
2.06 |
|
2 |
4.39 |
4+ |
3.57 |
|
3 |
3.89 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.31 |
|
4 |
6.17 |
Un 1.5 |
4.22 |
|
5 |
10.53 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
6+ |
43.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.15 |
|
Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.57 |
|
NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |