2021 02 12 Primeira Liga (Portugal)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Famalicao vs Belenenses at 12 February 2021
Nacional vs Farense at 13 February 2021
Guimaraes vs Rio Ave at 13 February 2021
Porto vs Boavista at 13 February 2021
Santa Clara vs Sp Braga at 14 February 2021
Portimonense vs Gil Vicente at 14 February 2021
Moreirense vs Benfica at 14 February 2021
Sp Lisbon vs Pacos Ferreira at 15 February 2021


Famalicao vs Belenenses at 12 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Famalicao and Belenenses for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 12 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Famalicao

2.48

3.24

-9.5

Draw

2.96

3.68

-6.6

Belenenses

3.15

2.39

10.1

Over 2.5

2.56

2.26

5.2

Under 2.5

1.52

1.79

-9.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Belenenses, Over 2.5 (10.1 %, 5.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Famalicao in the last six matches had one win, no draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Famalicao in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Famalicao’s performance at home.
Famalicao, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Famalicao scored in 6 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Famalicao was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Feb

Benfica

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Feb

Moreirense

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Nacional

A

1

2

L

O

G

24 Jan

Guimaraes

H

0

1

L

U

N

17 Jan

Santa Clara

A

2

1

W

O

G

08 Jan

Porto

H

1

4

L

O

G

03 Jan

Tondela

A

0

1

L

U

N

27 Dec

Gil Vicente

H

0

1

L

U

N


Belenenses in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Belenenses in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Belenenses’s performance as a guest.
Belenenses, as a guest, had one win, 3 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 25.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Belenenses scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
The latest 8 results of Belenenses was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Feb

Guimaraes

H

1

1

D

U

G

04 Feb

Porto

H

0

0

D

U

N

01 Feb

Santa Clara

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Jan

Tondela

H

2

0

W

U

N

18 Jan

Portimonense

A

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Pacos Ferreira

H

0

2

L

U

N

04 Jan

Gil Vicente

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Dec

Sp Lisbon

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Famalicao and the red line for guest team, Belenenses.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Famalicao

34%

37%

18%

11%

Belenenses

29%

29%

27%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Famalicao to score 1.11 goals and Belenenses to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Famalicao to score 1.07 goals and Belenenses to score 1.27 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.34 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.10

0-1

3.28

1

4.85

2-3

2.05

2

3.95

4+

4.83

3

4.26

Ov 1.5

1.44

4

7.41

Un 1.5

3.28

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.26

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

2.14

Ov 3.5

4.83

NoG

1.88

Un 3.5

1.26

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.80

3.08

3.14

2-3 goals

3.51

4.56

2.02

4+ goals

3.34

3.14

2.62

Ov 1.5

3.46

4.02

2.17

Un 1.5

2.80

3.08

3.14

Ov 2.5

3.01

6.70

1.93

Un 2.5

3.42

2.71

2.95

Ov 3.5

3.34

3.14

2.62

Un 3.5

3.20

3.85

2.34

Goal-Goal

4.07

2.71

2.60

No Goal

2.73

5.37

2.24

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.14

5.47

2.01

NG+Un 2.5

2.77

5.37

2.39


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Nacional vs Farense at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Nacional and Farense for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Nacional

2.54

2.06

9.2

Draw

2.98

3.75

-6.9

Farense

2.93

4.05

-9.4

Over 2.5

2.21

2.33

-2.3

Under 2.5

1.67

1.75

-2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Nacional (9.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Nacional in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Nacional in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Nacional’s performance at home.
Nacional, at home, had 3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Nacional scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Nacional was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Boavista

A

1

0

W

U

N

05 Feb

Rio Ave

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Famalicao

H

2

1

W

O

G

25 Jan

Benfica

A

1

1

D

U

G

21 Jan

Guimaraes

A

1

3

L

O

G

17 Jan

Moreirense

H

0

1

L

U

N

08 Jan

Sp Lisbon

H

0

2

L

U

N

27 Dec

Tondela

H

2

0

W

U

N


Farense in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 3 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Farense in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Farense’s performance as a guest.
Farense, as a guest, had no wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 4.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Farense scored in 2 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Farense was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Feb

Moreirense

H

1

2

L

O

G

04 Feb

Santa Clara

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Tondela

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Jan

Porto

H

0

1

L

U

N

10 Jan

Gil Vicente

H

3

1

W

O

G

04 Jan

Portimonense

A

0

2

L

U

N

27 Dec

Pacos Ferreira

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Dec

Sp Lisbon

A

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Nacional and the red line for guest team, Farense.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Nacional

24%

33%

23%

19%

Farense

42%

32%

19%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nacional to score 1.19 goals and Farense to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.27 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nacional to score 1.37 goals and Farense to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Nacional to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.80

0-1

3.12

1

4.59

2-3

2.06

2

3.98

4+

5.10

3

4.27

Ov 1.5

1.47

4

7.69

Un 1.5

3.12

5

19.23

Ov 2.5

2.33

6+

71.43

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

2.27

Ov 3.5

5.10

NoG

1.79

Un 3.5

1.24

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.30

3.14

4.05

2-3 goals

1.93

4.49

3.85

4+ goals

2.04

3.38

4.67

Ov 1.5

1.96

4.10

4.05

Un 1.5

2.30

3.14

4.05

Ov 2.5

1.72

7.41

3.52

Un 2.5

2.42

2.72

4.57

Ov 3.5

2.04

3.38

4.67

Un 3.5

2.06

3.83

3.93

Goal-Goal

2.58

2.66

4.24

No Goal

1.78

5.49

3.92

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.95

5.74

3.20

NG+Un 2.5

1.96

5.49

3.70


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Guimaraes vs Rio Ave at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Guimaraes and Rio Ave for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Guimaraes

2.20

1.75

11.7

Draw

3.29

4.08

-5.9

Rio Ave

3.30

5.46

-12.0

Over 2.5

2.25

2.13

2.5

Under 2.5

1.64

1.89

-8.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at Guimaraes, Over 2.5 (11.7 %, 2.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Guimaraes in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Guimaraes in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Guimaraes’s performance at home.
Guimaraes, at home, had 4 wins, no draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Guimaraes scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Guimaraes was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

08 Feb

Belenenses

A

1

1

D

U

G

05 Feb

Benfica

A

0

0

D

U

N

31 Jan

Maritimo

H

1

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Famalicao

A

1

0

W

U

N

21 Jan

Nacional

H

3

1

W

O

G

09 Jan

Moreirense

A

2

2

D

O

G

29 Dec

Porto

H

2

3

L

O

G

21 Dec

Santa Clara

A

4

0

W

O

N


Rio Ave in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Rio Ave in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Rio Ave’s performance as a guest.
Rio Ave, as a guest, had one win, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 25.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Rio Ave scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Rio Ave was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Tondela

H

2

1

W

O

G

05 Feb

Nacional

H

0

0

D

U

N

01 Feb

Porto

A

0

2

L

U

N

25 Jan

Santa Clara

H

1

2

L

O

G

15 Jan

Sp Lisbon

A

1

1

D

U

G

08 Jan

Portimonense

H

3

0

W

O

N

03 Jan

Pacos Ferreira

A

0

2

L

U

N

28 Dec

Maritimo

H

1

3

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Guimaraes and the red line for guest team, Rio Ave.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Guimaraes

18%

31%

26%

25%

Rio Ave

43%

38%

13%

7%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 1.28 goals and Rio Ave to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the home team Guimaraes to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Guimaraes to score 1.57 goals and Rio Ave to score 0.84 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Guimaraes to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.61

1

5.00

2-3

1.97

2

3.97

4+

4.67

3

3.91

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.61

5

20.41

Ov 2.5

2.13

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.89

Gg

2.13

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

1.89

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.10

3.60

4.07

2-3 goals

1.61

4.34

6.77

4+ goals

1.73

4.28

5.35

Ov 1.5

1.64

4.32

6.28

Un 1.5

2.10

3.60

4.07

Ov 2.5

1.43

9.40

5.11

Un 2.5

2.17

2.73

5.81

Ov 3.5

1.73

4.28

5.35

Un 3.5

1.75

4.05

5.49

Goal-Goal

2.10

2.81

5.94

No Goal

1.52

6.88

5.10

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.58

7.04

4.46

NG+Un 2.5

1.69

6.88

4.53


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Porto vs Boavista at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Porto and Boavista for Primeira Liga (Portugal), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Porto

1.23

2.26

-37.1

Draw

5.83

3.69

9.9

Boavista

12.76

3.50

20.7

Over 2.5

1.72

2.56

-19.1

Under 2.5

2.13

1.64

14.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Boavista, Under 2.5 (9.9 %, 20.7 %, 14 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -1.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Porto in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Porto in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Porto’s performance at home.
Porto, at home, had 7 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 22 points, 81.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Porto scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Porto was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Feb

Sp Braga

A

2

2

D

O

G

04 Feb

Belenenses

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Feb

Rio Ave

H

2

0

W

U

N

25 Jan

Farense

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Jan

Benfica

H

1

1

D

U

G

08 Jan

Famalicao

A

4

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Moreirense

H

3

0

W

O

N

29 Dec

Guimaraes

A

3

2

W

O

G


Boavista in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Boavista in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Boavista’s performance as a guest.
Boavista, as a guest, had one win, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Boavista scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Boavista was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Nacional

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Feb

Gil Vicente

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Portimonense

A

2

1

W

O

G

26 Jan

Sp Lisbon

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Tondela

A

1

3

L

O

G

09 Jan

Santa Clara

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Jan

Maritimo

A

0

0

D

U

N

28 Dec

Sp Braga

H

1

4

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Porto and the red line for guest team, Boavista.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Porto

29%

36%

21%

15%

Boavista

47%

18%

29%

5%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Porto to score 2.34 goals and Boavista to score 0.43 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Porto to win by 1.91 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Porto to score 1.21 goals and Boavista to score 0.92 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.13 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

7.25

0-1

2.78

1

4.50

2-3

2.11

2

4.02

4+

6.06

3

4.44

Ov 1.5

1.56

4

9.52

Un 1.5

2.78

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.56

6+

142.86

Un 2.5

1.64

Gg

2.69

Ov 3.5

6.06

NoG

1.59

Un 3.5

1.20

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.14

2.61

6.67

2-3 goals

2.31