Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Sabadell vs Zaragoza at 12 February 2021
Cartagena vs Vallecano at 13 February 2021
Mirandes vs Girona at 13 February 2021
Tenerife vs Ponferradina at 13 February 2021
Sp Gijon vs Malaga at 14 February 2021
Mallorca vs Espanol at 14 February 2021
Almeria vs Las Palmas at 14 February 2021
Alcorcon vs Logrones at 14 February 2021
Leganes vs Albacete at 14 February 2021
Oviedo vs Lugo at 15 February 2021
Castellon vs Fuenlabrada at 15 February 2021
Sabadell vs Zaragoza at 12 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Sabadell and Zaragoza for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 12 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Sabadell |
2.98 |
2.07 |
14.8 |
|
Draw |
2.75 |
3.70 |
-9.3 |
|
Zaragoza |
2.75 |
4.03 |
-11.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.52 |
2.25 |
4.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.51 |
1.80 |
-10.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Sabadell, Over 2.5 (14.8 %, 4.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Sabadell in the last six matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sabadell in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Sabadell’s performance at home.
Sabadell, at home, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Sabadell scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sabadell was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
Las Palmas |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
01 Feb |
Logrones |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Almeria |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
11 Jan |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
04 Jan |
Girona |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
19 Dec |
Castellon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Cartagena |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
09 Dec |
Alcorcon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
Zaragoza in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Zaragoza in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance as a guest.
Zaragoza, as a guest, had one win, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 13.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
29 Jan |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
22 Jan |
Albacete |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
08 Jan |
Logrones |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Cartagena |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Dec |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
13 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Dec |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sabadell and the red line for guest team, Zaragoza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Sabadell |
22% |
34% |
26% |
17% |
|
Zaragoza |
37% |
37% |
19% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sabadell to score 1 goals and Zaragoza to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.06 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sabadell to score 1.39 goals and Zaragoza to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Sabadell to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.45 |
|
1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
1.97 |
|
2 |
3.77 |
4+ |
4.93 |
|
3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |
|
4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.45 |
|
5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |
|
Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.93 |
|
NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.27 |
3.58 |
3.58 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.97 |
3.99 |
4.16 |
|
4+ goals |
2.11 |
3.33 |
4.41 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.01 |
3.78 |
4.23 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.27 |
3.58 |
3.58 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
7.30 |
3.50 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.47 |
2.67 |
4.55 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.33 |
4.41 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.06 |
3.83 |
3.93 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.55 |
2.61 |
4.45 |
|
No Goal |
1.76 |
6.30 |
3.67 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |
5.95 |
3.30 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.30 |
3.51 |
Go to Top
Cartagena vs Vallecano at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Cartagena and Vallecano for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Cartagena |
3.33 |
2.44 |
11.0 |
|
Draw |
2.81 |
3.50 |
-7.0 |
|
Vallecano |
2.52 |
3.28 |
-9.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.52 |
2.45 |
1.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.55 |
1.69 |
-5.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Cartagena, Over 2.5 (11 %, 1.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Cartagena in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Cartagena in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Cartagena’s performance at home.
Cartagena, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Cartagena scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Cartagena was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Oviedo |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
25 Jan |
Mirandes |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Tenerife |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Alcorcon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
13 Dec |
Sabadell |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Vallecano in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vallecano in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Vallecano’s performance as a guest.
Vallecano, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Vallecano scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vallecano was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
Tenerife |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Espanol |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Mallorca |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Mirandes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Alcorcon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
20 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
14 Dec |
Girona |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Logrones |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Cartagena and the red line for guest team, Vallecano.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Cartagena |
28% |
36% |
24% |
12% |
|
Vallecano |
35% |
37% |
20% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cartagena to score 0.95 goals and Vallecano to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.09 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cartagena to score 1.21 goals and Vallecano to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.31 |
0-1 |
3.10 |
|
1 |
4.42 |
2-3 |
2.02 |
|
2 |
3.72 |
4+ |
5.49 |
|
3 |
4.42 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.48 |
|
4 |
8.00 |
Un 1.5 |
3.10 |
|
5 |
21.74 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.45 |
|
6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.69 |
|
Gg |
2.13 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.49 |
|
NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.60 |
3.33 |
3.17 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.30 |
3.81 |
3.30 |
|
4+ goals |
2.56 |
3.08 |
3.50 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.58 |
3.35 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.33 |
3.17 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.92 |
2.78 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.85 |
2.61 |
3.77 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.56 |
3.08 |
3.50 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.60 |
3.25 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.96 |
2.49 |
3.85 |
|
No Goal |
2.11 |
5.46 |
2.91 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
5.76 |
2.79 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
5.46 |
2.94 |
Go to Top
Mirandes vs Girona at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Mirandes and Girona for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Mirandes |
2.39 |
2.14 |
4.9 |
|
Draw |
2.96 |
3.65 |
-6.4 |
|
Girona |
3.23 |
3.86 |
-5.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.29 |
4.5 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.48 |
1.78 |
-11.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Mirandes, Over 2.5 (4.9 %, 4.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Mirandes in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Mirandes in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance at home.
Mirandes, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 47.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Mirandes scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Las Palmas |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
25 Jan |
Cartagena |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
19 Jan |
Vallecano |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Logrones |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
21 Dec |
Albacete |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Lugo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Girona in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Girona in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Girona’s performance as a guest.
Girona, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Girona scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Girona was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
Leganes |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Mallorca |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Espanol |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
11 Jan |
Ponferradina |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
04 Jan |
Sabadell |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
21 Dec |
Tenerife |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Dec |
Vallecano |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
10 Dec |
Logrones |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Mirandes and the red line for guest team, Girona.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Mirandes |
23% |
35% |
26% |
16% |
|
Girona |
37% |
37% |
19% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mirandes to score 1.12 goals and Girona to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.03 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mirandes to score 1.35 goals and Girona to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and the home team Mirandes to win by 0.37 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.36 |
|
1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
5.00 |
|
3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |
|
4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |
|
5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |
|
Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.00 |
|
NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.51 |
3.47 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.02 |
3.94 |
3.97 |
|
4+ goals |
2.17 |
3.28 |
4.26 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.06 |
3.72 |
4.05 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.51 |
3.47 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
7.18 |
3.37 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.65 |
4.34 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.28 |
4.26 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.77 |
3.77 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.61 |
2.58 |
4.36 |
|
No Goal |
1.83 |
6.05 |
3.47 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
5.90 |
3.21 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.05 |
3.35 |
Go to Top
Tenerife vs Ponferradina at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Tenerife and Ponferradina for Segunda Division (Spain), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Tenerife |
2.02 |
2.17 |
-3.4 |
|
Draw |
3.04 |
3.62 |
-5.3 |
|
Ponferradina |
4.22 |
3.77 |
2.8 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.69 |
2.31 |
6.1 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.48 |
1.76 |
-10.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Ponferradina, Over 2.5 (2.8 %, 6.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Tenerife in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Tenerife in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Tenerife’s performance at home.
Tenerife, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Tenerife scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Tenerife was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
Vallecano |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
31 Jan |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Cartagena |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
21 Dec |
Girona |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
11 Dec |
Oviedo |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Dec |
Leganes |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Ponferradina in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ponferradina in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance as a guest.
Ponferradina, as a guest, had 5 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Feb |
Alcorcon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
29 Jan |
Zaragoza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
11 Jan |
Girona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
03 Jan |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
18 Dec |
Oviedo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
11 Dec |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Tenerife and the red line for guest team, Ponferradina.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Tenerife |
24% |
35% |
26% |
16% |
|
Ponferradina |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Tenerife to score 1.24 goals and Ponferradina to score 0.76 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2 goals in the game and the home team Tenerife to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Tenerife to score 1.33 goals and Ponferradina to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Tenerife to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.32 |
|
1 |
4.67 |
2-3 |
1.99 |
|
2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
5.08 |
|
3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |
|
4 |
7.46 |
Un 1.5 |
3.32 |
|
5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |
|
Gg |
2.07 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.08 |
|
NoG |
1.94 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.39 |
3.46 |