# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Sabadell vs Zaragoza at 12 February 2021**** Cartagena vs Vallecano at 13 February 2021**** Mirandes vs Girona at 13 February 2021**** Tenerife vs Ponferradina at 13 February 2021**** Sp Gijon vs Malaga at 14 February 2021**** Mallorca vs Espanol at 14 February 2021**** Almeria vs Las Palmas at 14 February 2021**** Alcorcon vs Logrones at 14 February 2021**** Leganes vs Albacete at 14 February 2021**** Oviedo vs Lugo at 15 February 2021**** Castellon vs Fuenlabrada at 15 February 2021**

###
Sabadell vs Zaragoza at 12 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sabadell** and **Zaragoza** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **12 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sabadell |
2.98 |
2.07 |
14.8 |

Draw |
2.75 |
3.70 |
-9.3 |

Zaragoza |
2.75 |
4.03 |
-11.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.52 |
2.25 |
4.8 |

Under 2.5 |
1.51 |
1.80 |
-10.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Sabadell, Over 2.5 (14.8 %, 4.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sabadell** in the **last six** matches had one win, 5 draws, no defeats.and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sabadell** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sabadell’s performance** at home**.

Sabadell,** at home**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Sabadell scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sabadell was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Feb |
Las Palmas |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
Logrones |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Almeria |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

11 Jan |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Jan |
Girona |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

19 Dec |
Castellon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

13 Dec |
Cartagena |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Dec |
Alcorcon |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Zaragoza** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Zaragoza** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Zaragoza’s performance** as a guest**.

Zaragoza,** as a guest**, had one win, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 13.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Zaragoza scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Zaragoza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Feb |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Jan |
Ponferradina |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Jan |
Albacete |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

08 Jan |
Logrones |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Cartagena |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Dec |
Lugo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

13 Dec |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

09 Dec |
Almeria |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sabadell** and the red line for guest team, **Zaragoza. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sabadell |
22% |
34% |
26% |
17% |

Zaragoza |
37% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sabadell** to score **1 ** goals and **Zaragoza** to score **1.06 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.06** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.06** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sabadell** to score **1.39 ** goals and **Zaragoza** to score **0.97 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and the home team **Sabadell ** to win by **0.42** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.35 |
0-1 |
3.45 |

1 |
4.78 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.77 |
4+ |
4.93 |

3 |
4.13 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.41 |

4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.45 |

5 |
19.23 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.80 |

Gg |
2.04 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.93 |

NoG |
1.96 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.27 |
3.58 |
3.58 |

2-3 goals |
1.97 |
3.99 |
4.16 |

4+ goals |
2.11 |
3.33 |
4.41 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.01 |
3.78 |
4.23 |

Un 1.5 |
2.27 |
3.58 |
3.58 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.73 |
7.30 |
3.50 |

Un 2.5 |
2.47 |
2.67 |
4.55 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.11 |
3.33 |
4.41 |

Un 3.5 |
2.06 |
3.83 |
3.93 |

Goal-Goal |
2.55 |
2.61 |
4.45 |

No Goal |
1.76 |
6.30 |
3.67 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.89 |
5.95 |
3.30 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.90 |
6.30 |
3.51 |

####
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###
Cartagena vs Vallecano at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Cartagena** and **Vallecano** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Cartagena |
3.33 |
2.44 |
11.0 |

Draw |
2.81 |
3.50 |
-7.0 |

Vallecano |
2.52 |
3.28 |
-9.2 |

Over 2.5 |
2.52 |
2.45 |
1.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.55 |
1.69 |
-5.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Cartagena, Over 2.5 (11 %, 1.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Cartagena** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Cartagena scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Cartagena** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Cartagena scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Cartagena’s performance** at home**.

Cartagena,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Cartagena scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Cartagena was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Oviedo |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Sp Gijon |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Mirandes |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Tenerife |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Jan |
Zaragoza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

20 Dec |
Alcorcon |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

13 Dec |
Sabadell |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Vallecano** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Vallecano scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Vallecano** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Vallecano scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vallecano’s performance** as a guest**.

Vallecano,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Vallecano scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Vallecano was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Feb |
Tenerife |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Espanol |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Mallorca |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Mirandes |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Alcorcon |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

20 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

14 Dec |
Girona |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Logrones |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Cartagena** and the red line for guest team, **Vallecano. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Cartagena |
28% |
36% |
24% |
12% |

Vallecano |
35% |
37% |
20% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Cartagena** to score **0.95 ** goals and **Vallecano** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.09** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.19** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Cartagena** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Vallecano** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.18** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.31 |
0-1 |
3.10 |

1 |
4.42 |
2-3 |
2.02 |

2 |
3.72 |
4+ |
5.49 |

3 |
4.42 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.48 |

4 |
8.00 |
Un 1.5 |
3.10 |

5 |
21.74 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.45 |

6+ |
90.91 |
Un 2.5 |
1.69 |

Gg |
2.13 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.49 |

NoG |
1.89 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.60 |
3.33 |
3.17 |

2-3 goals |
2.30 |
3.81 |
3.30 |

4+ goals |
2.56 |
3.08 |
3.50 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.37 |
3.58 |
3.35 |

Un 1.5 |
2.60 |
3.33 |
3.17 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
6.92 |
2.78 |

Un 2.5 |
2.85 |
2.61 |
3.77 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.56 |
3.08 |
3.50 |

Un 3.5 |
2.41 |
3.60 |
3.25 |

Goal-Goal |
2.96 |
2.49 |
3.85 |

No Goal |
2.11 |
5.46 |
2.91 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
5.76 |
2.79 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
5.46 |
2.94 |

####
Go to Top

###
Mirandes vs Girona at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Mirandes** and **Girona** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Mirandes |
2.39 |
2.14 |
4.9 |

Draw |
2.96 |
3.65 |
-6.4 |

Girona |
3.23 |
3.86 |
-5.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.29 |
4.5 |

Under 2.5 |
1.48 |
1.78 |
-11.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Mirandes, Over 2.5 (4.9 %, 4.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Mirandes** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Mirandes** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Mirandes’s performance** at home**.

Mirandes,** at home**, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 47.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Mirandes scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 11 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Mirandes was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Feb |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Las Palmas |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

25 Jan |
Cartagena |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Vallecano |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Logrones |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

21 Dec |
Albacete |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

12 Dec |
Fuenlabrada |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Lugo |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Girona** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Girona scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Girona** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Girona scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Girona’s performance** as a guest**.

Girona,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 41.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Girona scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Girona was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Feb |
Leganes |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Mallorca |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Espanol |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Jan |
Ponferradina |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

04 Jan |
Sabadell |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

21 Dec |
Tenerife |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

14 Dec |
Vallecano |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

10 Dec |
Logrones |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Mirandes** and the red line for guest team, **Girona. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Mirandes |
23% |
35% |
26% |
16% |

Girona |
37% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Mirandes** to score **1.12 ** goals and **Girona** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.03** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Mirandes** to score **1.35 ** goals and **Girona** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and the home team **Mirandes ** to win by **0.37** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.76 |
0-1 |
3.36 |

1 |
4.69 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
5.00 |

3 |
4.20 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.35 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |

5 |
19.61 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.77 |

Gg |
2.05 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.00 |

NoG |
1.95 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.35 |
3.51 |
3.47 |

2-3 goals |
2.02 |
3.94 |
3.97 |

4+ goals |
2.17 |
3.28 |
4.26 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.06 |
3.72 |
4.05 |

Un 1.5 |
2.35 |
3.51 |
3.47 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.77 |
7.18 |
3.37 |

Un 2.5 |
2.55 |
2.65 |
4.34 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.17 |
3.28 |
4.26 |

Un 3.5 |
2.13 |
3.77 |
3.77 |

Goal-Goal |
2.61 |
2.58 |
4.36 |

No Goal |
1.83 |
6.05 |
3.47 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
5.90 |
3.21 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.97 |
6.05 |
3.35 |

####
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###
Tenerife vs Ponferradina at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Tenerife** and **Ponferradina** for **Segunda Division (Spain)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Tenerife |
2.02 |
2.17 |
-3.4 |

Draw |
3.04 |
3.62 |
-5.3 |

Ponferradina |
4.22 |
3.77 |
2.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.69 |
2.31 |
6.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.48 |
1.76 |
-10.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Ponferradina, Over 2.5 (2.8 %, 6.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Tenerife** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Tenerife scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Tenerife** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Tenerife scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Tenerife’s performance** at home**.

Tenerife,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 52.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Tenerife scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Tenerife was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Feb |
Vallecano |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Fuenlabrada |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Jan |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Cartagena |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

03 Jan |
Castellon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

21 Dec |
Girona |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Dec |
Oviedo |
A |
2 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

07 Dec |
Leganes |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

**Ponferradina** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Ponferradina** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Ponferradina’s performance** as a guest**.

Ponferradina,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, one draw, 6 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Ponferradina scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Ponferradina was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

08 Feb |
Alcorcon |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Jan |
Zaragoza |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Malaga |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Jan |
Girona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Jan |
Almeria |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

18 Dec |
Oviedo |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

11 Dec |
Lugo |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Las Palmas |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Tenerife** and the red line for guest team, **Ponferradina. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Tenerife |
24% |
35% |
26% |
16% |

Ponferradina |
36% |
37% |
19% |
8% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Tenerife** to score **1.24 ** goals and **Ponferradina** to score **0.76 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2** goals in the game and the home team **Tenerife ** to win by **0.48** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Tenerife** to score **1.33 ** goals and **Ponferradina** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.31** goals in the game and the home team **Tenerife ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
11.49 |
0-1 |
3.32 |

1 |
4.67 |
2-3 |
1.99 |

2 |
3.76 |
4+ |
5.08 |

3 |
4.24 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.43 |

4 |
7.46 |
Un 1.5 |
3.32 |

5 |
20.00 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.76 |

Gg |
2.07 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.08 |

NoG |
1.94 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.39 |
3.46 |