2021 02 12 Serie A (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Bologna vs Benevento at 12 February 2021
Torino vs Genoa at 13 February 2021
Napoli vs Juventus at 13 February 2021
Spezia vs Milan at 13 February 2021
Sampdoria vs Fiorentina at 14 February 2021
Roma vs Udinese at 14 February 2021
Inter vs Lazio at 14 February 2021
Crotone vs Sassuolo at 14 February 2021
Cagliari vs Atalanta at 14 February 2021
Verona vs Parma at 15 February 2021


Bologna vs Benevento at 12 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Bologna and Benevento for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 12 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Bologna

1.85

2.21

-8.8

Draw

3.60

3.65

-0.4

Benevento

4.46

3.65

5.0

Over 2.5

1.73

1.97

-7.0

Under 2.5

2.15

2.03

2.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Benevento, Under 2.5 (5 %, 2.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Bologna in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bologna in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bologna’s performance at home.
Bologna, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bologna scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bologna was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Feb

Parma

A

3

0

W

O

N

30 Jan

Milan

H

1

2

L

O

G

24 Jan

Juventus

A

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Verona

H

1

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Genoa

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Jan

Udinese

H

2

2

D

O

G

03 Jan

Fiorentina

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Dec

Atalanta

H

2

2

D

O

G


Benevento in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Benevento in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Benevento’s performance as a guest.
Benevento, as a guest, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Benevento scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Benevento was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Feb

Sampdoria

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Inter

A

0

4

L

O

N

22 Jan

Torino

H

2

2

D

O

G

17 Jan

Crotone

A

1

4

L

O

G

09 Jan

Atalanta

H

1

4

L

O

G

06 Jan

Cagliari

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Milan

H

0

2

L

U

N

23 Dec

Udinese

A

2

0

W

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Bologna and the red line for guest team, Benevento.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Bologna

28%

14%

42%

16%

Benevento

38%

23%

28%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.8 goals and Benevento to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.77 goals in the game and the home team Bologna to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bologna to score 1.46 goals and Benevento to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Bologna to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.71

0-1

4.52

1

8.47

2-3

2.01

2

3.70

4+

3.57

3

4.39

Ov 1.5

1.29

4

5.81

Un 1.5

4.52

5

10.99

Ov 2.5

1.97

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

2.21

Ov 3.5

3.57

NoG

1.83

Un 3.5

1.39

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

4.17

2.15

3.40

2-3 goals

1.57

15.09

3.36

4+ goals

3.41

2.04

4.59

Ov 1.5

1.95

4.58

3.72

Un 1.5

4.17

2.15

3.40

Ov 2.5

2.12

3.71

3.88

Un 2.5

2.32

3.61

3.43

Ov 3.5

3.41

2.04

4.59

Un 3.5

1.94

5.29

3.38

Goal-Goal

2.50

2.66

4.48

No Goal

2.02

5.31

3.16

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.31

3.06

4.15

NG+Un 2.5

2.16

5.31

3.20


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Torino vs Genoa at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Torino and Genoa for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Torino

2.03

2.42

-7.9

Draw

3.25

3.77

-4.2

Genoa

4.12

3.12

7.8

Over 2.5

2.07

2.10

-0.7

Under 2.5

1.79

1.91

-3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Genoa (7.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Torino in the last six matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Torino in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance at home.
Torino, at home, had no wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Torino scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Atalanta

A

3

3

D

O

G

29 Jan

Fiorentina

H

1

1

D

U

G

22 Jan

Benevento

A

2

2

D

O

G

16 Jan

Spezia

H

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Milan

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Jan

Verona

H

1

1

D

U

G

03 Jan

Parma

A

3

0

W

O

N

23 Dec

Napoli

A

1

1

D

U

G


Genoa in the last six matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Genoa in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance as a guest.
Genoa, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Genoa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Napoli

H

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Crotone

A

3

0

W

O

N

24 Jan

Cagliari

H

1

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Atalanta

A

0

0

D

U

N

09 Jan

Bologna

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Sassuolo

A

1

2

L

O

G

03 Jan

Lazio

H

1

1

D

U

G

23 Dec

Spezia

A

2

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Torino and the red line for guest team, Genoa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Torino

26%

32%

24%

17%

Genoa

35%

27%

26%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Torino to score 1.49 goals and Genoa to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Torino to win by 0.58 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Torino to score 1.31 goals and Genoa to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.75

0-1

3.57

1

5.35

2-3

2.07

2

4.12

4+

4.20

3

4.15

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.80

Un 1.5

3.57

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

2.09

Ov 3.5

4.20

NoG

1.91

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.46

3.01

3.84

2-3 goals

2.29

5.44

2.63

4+ goals

2.64

2.87

3.66

Ov 1.5

2.40

4.20

2.90

Un 1.5

2.46

3.01

3.84

Ov 2.5

2.22

5.77

2.66

Un 2.5

2.63

2.87

3.68

Ov 3.5

2.64

2.87

3.66

Un 3.5

2.35

4.20

2.97

Goal-Goal

3.05

2.78

3.19

No Goal

2.03

5.62

3.04

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.48

4.70

2.60

NG+Un 2.5

2.18

5.62

3.06


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Napoli vs Juventus at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Napoli and Juventus for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Napoli

3.79

2.35

16.2

Draw

3.50

3.53

-0.2

Juventus

2.04

3.44

-19.9

Over 2.5

1.92

2.08

-4.0

Under 2.5

1.94

1.92

0.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Napoli, Under 2.5 (16.2 %, 0.5 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Napoli in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Napoli in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance at home.
Napoli, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Napoli scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Napoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Genoa

A

1

2

L

O

G

31 Jan

Parma

H

2

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Verona

A

1

3

L

O

G

17 Jan

Fiorentina

H

6

0

W

O

N

10 Jan

Udinese

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Spezia

H

1

2

L

O

G

03 Jan

Cagliari

A

4

1

W

O

G

23 Dec

Torino

H

1

1

D

U

G


Juventus in the last six matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Juventus in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in all of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance as a guest.
Juventus, as a guest, had 5 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Juventus scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Roma

H

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Sampdoria

A

2

0

W

U

N

24 Jan

Bologna

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Inter

A

0

2

L

U

N

10 Jan

Sassuolo

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Milan

A

3

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Udinese

H

4

1

W

O

G

22 Dec

Fiorentina

H

0

3

L

O

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Napoli and the red line for guest team, Juventus.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Napoli

29%

18%

38%

14%

Juventus

40%

19%

30%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Napoli to score 1 goals and Juventus to score 1.55 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the guest team Juventus to win by 0.55 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Napoli to score 1.38 goals and Juventus to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

8.55

0-1

4.08

1

7.81

2-3

2.03

2

3.62

4+

3.79

3

4.63

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

6.13

Un 1.5

4.08

5

11.76

Ov 2.5

2.08

6+

62.50

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

2.36

Ov 3.5

3.79

NoG

1.73

Un 3.5

1.36

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

3.36

2.09

4.45

2-3 goals

1.74

14.47

2.80

4+ goals

3.72

2.00

4.33

Ov 1.5

2.14

4.55

3.19

Un 1.5

3.36

2.09

4.45

Ov 2.5

2.40

3.64

3.24

Un 2.5

2.31

3.45

3.62

Ov 3.5

3.72

2.00

4.33

Un 3.5

2.08

4.88

3.19

Goal-Goal

2.99

2.55

3.66

No Goal

2.03

4.93

3.28

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.75

2.95

3.36

NG+Un 2.5

2.15

4.93

3.38


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Spezia vs Milan at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Spezia and Milan for Serie A (Italy), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spezia

6.41

3.53

12.7

Draw

4.49

3.85

3.7

Milan

1.51

2.19

-20.6

Over 2.5

1.68

2.04

-10.5

Under 2.5

2.25

1.96

6.6

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spezia, Draw, Under 2.5 (12.7 %, 3.7 %, 6.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spezia in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spezia in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance at home.
Spezia, at home, had one win, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Spezia scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Sassuolo

A

2

1

W

O

G

31 Jan

Udinese

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Jan

Roma

A

3

4

L

O

G

16 Jan

Torino

A

0

0

D

U

N

11 Jan

Sampdoria

H

2

1

W

O

G

06 Jan

Napoli

A

2

1

W

O

G

03 Jan

Verona

H

0

1

L

U

N

23 Dec

Genoa

H

1

2

L

O

G


Milan in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Milan in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milan’s performance as a guest.
Milan, as a guest, had 9 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 28 points, 93.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Milan scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Milan was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

07 Feb

Crotone

H

4

0

W

O

N

30 Jan

Bologna

A

2

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Atalanta

H

0

3

L

O

N

18 Jan

Cagliari

A

2

0

W

U

N

09 Jan

Torino

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Jan

Juventus

H

1

3

L

O

G

03 Jan

Benevento

A

2

0

W

U

N

23 Dec

Lazio

H

3

2

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spezia and the red line for guest team, Milan.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spezia

38%

26%

29%

8%

Milan

28%

23%

27%

22%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spezia to score 0.73 goals and Milan to score 2.12 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.85 goals in the game and the guest team Milan to win by 1.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spezia to score 1.07 goals and Milan to score 1.42 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the guest team Milan to win by 0.35 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.35

0-1

3.75

1

6.25

2-3

2.08

2

4.15

4+

3.97

3

4.18

Ov 1.5

1.37

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.75

5

11.90

Ov 2.5

2.04

6+

58.82

Un 2.5

1.97

Gg

2.24

Ov 3.5

3.97

NoG

1.81

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-