# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Bologna vs Benevento at 12 February 2021**** Torino vs Genoa at 13 February 2021**** Napoli vs Juventus at 13 February 2021**** Spezia vs Milan at 13 February 2021**** Sampdoria vs Fiorentina at 14 February 2021**** Roma vs Udinese at 14 February 2021**** Inter vs Lazio at 14 February 2021**** Crotone vs Sassuolo at 14 February 2021**** Cagliari vs Atalanta at 14 February 2021**** Verona vs Parma at 15 February 2021**

###
Bologna vs Benevento at 12 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Bologna** and **Benevento** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **12 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Bologna |
1.85 |
2.21 |
-8.8 |

Draw |
3.60 |
3.65 |
-0.4 |

Benevento |
4.46 |
3.65 |
5.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.73 |
1.97 |
-7.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.15 |
2.03 |
2.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Benevento, Under 2.5 (5 %, 2.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Bologna** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Bologna scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bologna** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Bologna scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bologna’s performance** at home**.

Bologna,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 46.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bologna scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bologna was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Feb |
Parma |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Milan |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Juventus |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Verona |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Genoa |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Udinese |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Fiorentina |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Atalanta |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

**Benevento** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Benevento scored in 5 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Benevento** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Benevento scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Benevento’s performance** as a guest**.

Benevento,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 43.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Benevento scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Benevento was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Feb |
Sampdoria |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Inter |
A |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |

22 Jan |
Torino |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Crotone |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

09 Jan |
Atalanta |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Cagliari |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Milan |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Udinese |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Bologna** and the red line for guest team, **Benevento. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Bologna |
28% |
14% |
42% |
16% |

Benevento |
38% |
23% |
28% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Bologna** to score **1.8 ** goals and **Benevento** to score **0.96 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.77** goals in the game and the home team **Bologna ** to win by **0.84** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Bologna** to score **1.46 ** goals and **Benevento** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and the home team **Bologna ** to win by **0.34** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.71 |
0-1 |
4.52 |

1 |
8.47 |
2-3 |
2.01 |

2 |
3.70 |
4+ |
3.57 |

3 |
4.39 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |

4 |
5.81 |
Un 1.5 |
4.52 |

5 |
10.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.97 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
2.21 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.57 |

NoG |
1.83 |
Un 3.5 |
1.39 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
4.17 |
2.15 |
3.40 |

2-3 goals |
1.57 |
15.09 |
3.36 |

4+ goals |
3.41 |
2.04 |
4.59 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.95 |
4.58 |
3.72 |

Un 1.5 |
4.17 |
2.15 |
3.40 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.12 |
3.71 |
3.88 |

Un 2.5 |
2.32 |
3.61 |
3.43 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.41 |
2.04 |
4.59 |

Un 3.5 |
1.94 |
5.29 |
3.38 |

Goal-Goal |
2.50 |
2.66 |
4.48 |

No Goal |
2.02 |
5.31 |
3.16 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.31 |
3.06 |
4.15 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.16 |
5.31 |
3.20 |

####
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###
Torino vs Genoa at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Torino** and **Genoa** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Torino |
2.03 |
2.42 |
-7.9 |

Draw |
3.25 |
3.77 |
-4.2 |

Genoa |
4.12 |
3.12 |
7.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.07 |
2.10 |
-0.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.91 |
-3.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Genoa (7.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Torino** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 5 draws,one defeat and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Torino** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Torino’s performance** at home**.

Torino,** at home**, had no wins, 6 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Torino scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Torino was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Atalanta |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

29 Jan |
Fiorentina |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Jan |
Benevento |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Spezia |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Milan |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Verona |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

03 Jan |
Parma |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

23 Dec |
Napoli |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Genoa** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, one draw,one defeat and gathered 13 points, 72.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Genoa** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Genoa’s performance** as a guest**.

Genoa,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Genoa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Genoa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Napoli |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Crotone |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

24 Jan |
Cagliari |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Atalanta |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Bologna |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Sassuolo |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Lazio |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

23 Dec |
Spezia |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Torino** and the red line for guest team, **Genoa. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Torino |
26% |
32% |
24% |
17% |

Genoa |
35% |
27% |
26% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Torino** to score **1.49 ** goals and **Genoa** to score **0.91 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.4** goals in the game and the home team **Torino ** to win by **0.58** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Torino** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Genoa** to score **1.14 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.75 |
0-1 |
3.57 |

1 |
5.35 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
4.12 |
4+ |
4.20 |

3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.80 |
Un 1.5 |
3.57 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |

Gg |
2.09 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.20 |

NoG |
1.91 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.46 |
3.01 |
3.84 |

2-3 goals |
2.29 |
5.44 |
2.63 |

4+ goals |
2.64 |
2.87 |
3.66 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.40 |
4.20 |
2.90 |

Un 1.5 |
2.46 |
3.01 |
3.84 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |
5.77 |
2.66 |

Un 2.5 |
2.63 |
2.87 |
3.68 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.64 |
2.87 |
3.66 |

Un 3.5 |
2.35 |
4.20 |
2.97 |

Goal-Goal |
3.05 |
2.78 |
3.19 |

No Goal |
2.03 |
5.62 |
3.04 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.48 |
4.70 |
2.60 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.18 |
5.62 |
3.06 |

####
Go to Top

###
Napoli vs Juventus at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Napoli** and **Juventus** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Napoli |
3.79 |
2.35 |
16.2 |

Draw |
3.50 |
3.53 |
-0.2 |

Juventus |
2.04 |
3.44 |
-19.9 |

Over 2.5 |
1.92 |
2.08 |
-4.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
1.92 |
0.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Napoli, Under 2.5 (16.2 %, 0.5 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Napoli** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Napoli** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Napoli’s performance** at home**.

Napoli,** at home**, had 6 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Napoli scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Napoli was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Genoa |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Parma |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Verona |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Fiorentina |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

10 Jan |
Udinese |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Spezia |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Cagliari |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Dec |
Torino |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Juventus** in the **last six** matches had 5 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 15 points, 83.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Juventus** in the **last three matches** had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus** scored in all of them**** and kept clean sheet in all of them**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Juventus’s performance** as a guest**.

Juventus,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Juventus scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Juventus was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Roma |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Sampdoria |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Bologna |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Inter |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

10 Jan |
Sassuolo |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Milan |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Udinese |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

22 Dec |
Fiorentina |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Napoli** and the red line for guest team, **Juventus. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Napoli |
29% |
18% |
38% |
14% |

Juventus |
40% |
19% |
30% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Napoli** to score **1 ** goals and **Juventus** to score **1.55 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and the guest team **Juventus ** to win by **0.55** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Napoli** to score **1.38 ** goals and **Juventus** to score **1.12 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.5** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
8.55 |
0-1 |
4.08 |

1 |
7.81 |
2-3 |
2.03 |

2 |
3.62 |
4+ |
3.79 |

3 |
4.63 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
6.13 |
Un 1.5 |
4.08 |

5 |
11.76 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.08 |

6+ |
62.50 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
2.36 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.79 |

NoG |
1.73 |
Un 3.5 |
1.36 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
3.36 |
2.09 |
4.45 |

2-3 goals |
1.74 |
14.47 |
2.80 |

4+ goals |
3.72 |
2.00 |
4.33 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.14 |
4.55 |
3.19 |

Un 1.5 |
3.36 |
2.09 |
4.45 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.40 |
3.64 |
3.24 |

Un 2.5 |
2.31 |
3.45 |
3.62 |

Ov 3.5 |
3.72 |
2.00 |
4.33 |

Un 3.5 |
2.08 |
4.88 |
3.19 |

Goal-Goal |
2.99 |
2.55 |
3.66 |

No Goal |
2.03 |
4.93 |
3.28 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.75 |
2.95 |
3.36 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.15 |
4.93 |
3.38 |

####
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###
Spezia vs Milan at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Spezia** and **Milan** for **Serie A (Italy)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Spezia |
6.41 |
3.53 |
12.7 |

Draw |
4.49 |
3.85 |
3.7 |

Milan |
1.51 |
2.19 |
-20.6 |

Over 2.5 |
1.68 |
2.04 |
-10.5 |

Under 2.5 |
2.25 |
1.96 |
6.6 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Spezia, Draw, Under 2.5 (12.7 %, 3.7 %, 6.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Spezia** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Spezia** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Spezia’s performance** at home**.

Spezia,** at home**, had one win, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 20.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Spezia scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Spezia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Sassuolo |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

31 Jan |
Udinese |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Roma |
A |
3 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Torino |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

11 Jan |
Sampdoria |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Jan |
Napoli |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Verona |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Genoa |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Milan** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Milan scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Milan** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Milan scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Milan’s performance** as a guest**.

Milan,** as a guest**, had 9 wins, one draw, no defeats and gathered 28 points, 93.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Milan** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Milan was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

07 Feb |
Crotone |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Bologna |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Atalanta |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

18 Jan |
Cagliari |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

09 Jan |
Torino |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Jan |
Juventus |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

03 Jan |
Benevento |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Dec |
Lazio |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Spezia** and the red line for guest team, **Milan. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Spezia |
38% |
26% |
29% |
8% |

Milan |
28% |
23% |
27% |
22% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Spezia** to score **0.73 ** goals and **Milan** to score **2.12 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.85** goals in the game and the guest team **Milan ** to win by **1.39** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Spezia** to score **1.07 ** goals and **Milan** to score **1.42 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.49** goals in the game and the guest team **Milan ** to win by **0.35** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.35 |
0-1 |
3.75 |

1 |
6.25 |
2-3 |
2.08 |

2 |
4.15 |
4+ |
3.97 |

3 |
4.18 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.37 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.75 |

5 |
11.90 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |

6+ |
58.82 |
Un 2.5 |
1.97 |

Gg |
2.24 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.97 |

NoG |
1.81 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |