# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Monza vs Pisa at 12 February 2021**** Spal vs Empoli at 13 February 2021**** Salernitana vs Vicenza at 13 February 2021**** Pescara vs Venezia at 13 February 2021**** Cremonese vs Lecce at 13 February 2021**** Pordenone vs Cittadella at 13 February 2021**** Virtus Entella vs Frosinone at 14 February 2021**** Reggiana vs Ascoli at 14 February 2021**** Brescia vs Chievo at 14 February 2021**** Cosenza vs Reggina at 15 February 2021**

###
Monza vs Pisa at 12 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Monza** and **Pisa** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **12 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Monza |
1.60 |
1.93 |
-10.7 |

Draw |
3.60 |
4.02 |
-2.9 |

Pisa |
6.03 |
4.27 |
6.8 |

Over 2.5 |
1.87 |
2.07 |
-5.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.94 |
1.94 |
0.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Pisa (6.8 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Monza** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Monza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Monza** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Monza** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance** at home**.

Monza,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Monza scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Monza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
Vicenza |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Empoli |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Jan |
Spal |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

25 Jan |
Brescia |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Cosenza |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

04 Jan |
Lecce |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Salernitana |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

27 Dec |
Cremonese |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Pisa** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Pisa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pisa** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Pisa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance** as a guest**.

Pisa,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Pisa scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pisa was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
Salernitana |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Cremonese |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Frosinone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Reggiana |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

22 Jan |
Virtus Entella |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Brescia |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Venezia |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Dec |
Cosenza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Monza** and the red line for guest team, **Pisa. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Monza |
19% |
32% |
28% |
20% |

Pisa |
41% |
30% |
19% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Monza** to score **1.84 ** goals and **Pisa** to score **0.73 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.58** goals in the game and the home team **Monza ** to win by **1.11** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Monza** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Pisa** to score **0.98 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.48** goals in the game and the home team **Monza ** to win by **0.52** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.99 |
0-1 |
3.76 |

1 |
5.29 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
4.00 |
4+ |
4.26 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.76 |
Un 1.5 |
3.76 |

5 |
14.93 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.94 |

Gg |
2.08 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.26 |

NoG |
1.92 |
Un 3.5 |
1.31 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.02 |
3.45 |
4.67 |

2-3 goals |
1.75 |
5.09 |
4.30 |

4+ goals |
2.33 |
3.18 |
3.92 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.90 |
4.27 |
4.17 |

Un 1.5 |
2.02 |
3.45 |
4.67 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.79 |
6.54 |
3.46 |

Un 2.5 |
2.08 |
2.95 |
5.55 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.33 |
3.18 |
3.92 |

Un 3.5 |
1.83 |
4.37 |
4.42 |

Goal-Goal |
2.57 |
2.79 |
3.97 |

No Goal |
1.57 |
6.75 |
4.64 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
5.16 |
3.16 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.69 |
6.75 |
4.49 |

####
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###
Spal vs Empoli at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Spal** and **Empoli** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Spal |
2.76 |
2.33 |
6.7 |

Draw |
3.03 |
3.69 |
-5.9 |

Empoli |
2.71 |
3.33 |
-6.9 |

Over 2.5 |
2.03 |
2.16 |
-3.0 |

Under 2.5 |
1.78 |
1.86 |
-2.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Spal (6.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Spal** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Spal** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Spal** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Spal** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Spal’s performance** at home**.

Spal,** at home**, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Spal scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Spal was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
Pordenone |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Cosenza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

31 Jan |
Monza |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

24 Jan |
Cremonese |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

18 Jan |
Reggiana |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Frosinone |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Dec |
Brescia |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

27 Dec |
Ascoli |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Empoli** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Empoli** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Empoli** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Empoli** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Empoli’s performance** as a guest**.

Empoli,** as a guest**, had 5 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 20 points, 60.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Empoli scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Empoli was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
Pescara |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Monza |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Frosinone |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

24 Jan |
Lecce |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

17 Jan |
Salernitana |
H |
5 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

04 Jan |
Cosenza |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Ascoli |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Dec |
Brescia |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Spal** and the red line for guest team, **Empoli. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Spal |
24% |
33% |
29% |
14% |

Empoli |
33% |
36% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Spal** to score **1.2 ** goals and **Empoli** to score **1.21 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.41** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.01** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Spal** to score **1.32 ** goals and **Empoli** to score **1.1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.42** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.22** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.64 |

1 |
5.13 |
2-3 |
1.97 |

2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
4.57 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |

4 |
6.94 |
Un 1.5 |
3.64 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.16 |

6+ |
66.67 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.57 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.57 |
3.44 |
3.13 |

2-3 goals |
2.05 |
4.30 |
3.57 |

4+ goals |
2.88 |
3.00 |
3.13 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.25 |
3.80 |
3.42 |

Un 1.5 |
2.57 |
3.44 |
3.13 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.04 |
6.34 |
2.84 |

Un 2.5 |
2.65 |
2.72 |
3.93 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.88 |
3.00 |
3.13 |

Un 3.5 |
2.21 |
3.95 |
3.40 |

Goal-Goal |
2.79 |
2.66 |
3.76 |

No Goal |
1.99 |
6.16 |
2.99 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.14 |
5.34 |
2.89 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.07 |
6.16 |
3.07 |

####
Go to Top

###
Salernitana vs Vicenza at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Salernitana** and **Vicenza** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Salernitana |
2.52 |
2.32 |
3.4 |

Draw |
3.02 |
3.68 |
-5.9 |

Vicenza |
3.28 |
3.37 |
-0.8 |

Over 2.5 |
2.12 |
2.22 |
-2.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.82 |
-1.9 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Salernitana (3.4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Salernitana** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Salernitana** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance** at home**.

Salernitana,** at home**, had 7 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 24 points, 72.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Salernitana scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
Pisa |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

01 Feb |
Reggina |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Pescara |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Empoli |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |

04 Jan |
Pordenone |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Monza |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

27 Dec |
Venezia |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Vicenza** in the **last six** matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Vicenza** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vicenza’s performance** as a guest**.

Vicenza,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Vicenza scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Vicenza was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
Monza |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Pordenone |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Jan |
Venezia |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Reggiana |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Chievo |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

15 Jan |
Frosinone |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Brescia |
A |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

30 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Salernitana** and the red line for guest team, **Vicenza. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Salernitana |
22% |
41% |
21% |
16% |

Vicenza |
36% |
32% |
20% |
12% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Salernitana** to score **1.28 ** goals and **Vicenza** to score **1.07 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.21** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Salernitana** to score **1.31 ** goals and **Vicenza** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.39** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
12.50 |
0-1 |
3.36 |

1 |
4.59 |
2-3 |
2.07 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.59 |

3 |
4.29 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.42 |

4 |
7.04 |
Un 1.5 |
3.36 |

5 |
17.54 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.22 |

6+ |
52.63 |
Un 2.5 |
1.82 |

Gg |
2.01 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.59 |

NoG |
1.99 |
Un 3.5 |
1.28 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.04 |
3.72 |
4.14 |

2-3 goals |
2.42 |
3.69 |
3.16 |

4+ goals |
2.56 |
3.57 |
3.03 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.46 |
3.66 |
3.12 |

Un 1.5 |
2.04 |
3.72 |
4.14 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.15 |
7.39 |
2.51 |

Un 2.5 |
2.48 |
2.60 |
4.69 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.56 |
3.57 |
3.03 |

Un 3.5 |
2.26 |
3.71 |
3.48 |

Goal-Goal |
3.28 |
2.59 |
3.23 |

No Goal |
1.80 |
6.28 |
3.51 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.41 |
6.02 |
2.38 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.89 |
6.28 |
3.57 |

####
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###
Pescara vs Venezia at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Pescara** and **Venezia** for **Serie B (Italy)**, which will take place on **13 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Pescara |
3.32 |
2.67 |
7.3 |

Draw |
2.95 |
3.41 |
-4.6 |

Venezia |
2.38 |
3.00 |
-8.7 |

Over 2.5 |
2.26 |
2.28 |
-0.4 |

Under 2.5 |
1.64 |
1.78 |
-4.8 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Pescara (7.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases significantly, -6.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Pescara** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Pescara scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Pescara** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance** at home**.

Pescara,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Pescara scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
Empoli |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Reggina |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

31 Jan |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Salernitana |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Jan |
Cremonese |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Reggiana |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Dec |
Cosenza |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Dec |
Virtus Entella |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

**Venezia** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Venezia** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance** as a guest**.

Venezia,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Venezia scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
Cremonese |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Frosinone |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

29 Jan |
Vicenza |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Cittadella |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Pordenone |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

04 Jan |
Pisa |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Dec |
Chievo |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

27 Dec |
Salernitana |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Pescara** and the red line for guest team, **Venezia. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Pescara |
26% |
38% |
25% |
11% |

Venezia |
26% |
43% |
20% |
11% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Pescara** to score **0.99 ** goals and **Venezia** to score **1.24 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.23** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.25** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Pescara** to score **1.22 ** goals and **Venezia** to score **1.15 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.71 |
0-1 |
3.58 |

1 |
4.74 |
2-3 |
1.92 |

2 |
3.56 |
4+ |
5.05 |

3 |
4.17 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
3.58 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.28 |

6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.79 |

Gg |
1.84 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.05 |

NoG |
2.20 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.79 |
4.10 |
2.51 |

2-3 goals |