2021 02 12 Serie B (Italy)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Monza vs Pisa at 12 February 2021
Spal vs Empoli at 13 February 2021
Salernitana vs Vicenza at 13 February 2021
Pescara vs Venezia at 13 February 2021
Cremonese vs Lecce at 13 February 2021
Pordenone vs Cittadella at 13 February 2021
Virtus Entella vs Frosinone at 14 February 2021
Reggiana vs Ascoli at 14 February 2021
Brescia vs Chievo at 14 February 2021
Cosenza vs Reggina at 15 February 2021


Monza vs Pisa at 12 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Monza and Pisa for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 12 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Monza

1.60

1.93

-10.7

Draw

3.60

4.02

-2.9

Pisa

6.03

4.27

6.8

Over 2.5

1.87

2.07

-5.2

Under 2.5

1.94

1.94

0.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pisa (6.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Monza in the last six matches had 2 wins, 4 draws, no defeats.and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Monza in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Monza’s performance at home.
Monza, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, one defeat and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Monza scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Monza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Vicenza

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Empoli

H

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Spal

A

1

1

D

U

G

25 Jan

Brescia

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Cosenza

H

2

2

D

O

G

04 Jan

Lecce

A

0

0

D

U

N

30 Dec

Salernitana

H

3

0

W

O

N

27 Dec

Cremonese

A

2

0

W

U

N


Pisa in the last six matches had 2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 8 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pisa in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pisa’s performance as a guest.
Pisa, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 30.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pisa scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 9 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pisa was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Salernitana

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Cremonese

A

1

2

L

O

G

02 Feb

Frosinone

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Reggiana

H

1

0

W

U

N

22 Jan

Virtus Entella

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Brescia

H

1

0

W

U

N

04 Jan

Venezia

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Dec

Cosenza

A

1

1

D

U

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Monza and the red line for guest team, Pisa.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Monza

19%

32%

28%

20%

Pisa

41%

30%

19%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Monza to score 1.84 goals and Pisa to score 0.73 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Monza to win by 1.11 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Monza to score 1.5 goals and Pisa to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Monza to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.99

0-1

3.76

1

5.29

2-3

2.00

2

4.00

4+

4.26

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.76

Un 1.5

3.76

5

14.93

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.94

Gg

2.08

Ov 3.5

4.26

NoG

1.92

Un 3.5

1.31

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.02

3.45

4.67

2-3 goals

1.75

5.09

4.30

4+ goals

2.33

3.18

3.92

Ov 1.5

1.90

4.27

4.17

Un 1.5

2.02

3.45

4.67

Ov 2.5

1.79

6.54

3.46

Un 2.5

2.08

2.95

5.55

Ov 3.5

2.33

3.18

3.92

Un 3.5

1.83

4.37

4.42

Goal-Goal

2.57

2.79

3.97

No Goal

1.57

6.75

4.64

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.04

5.16

3.16

NG+Un 2.5

1.69

6.75

4.49


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Spal vs Empoli at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Spal and Empoli for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Spal

2.76

2.33

6.7

Draw

3.03

3.69

-5.9

Empoli

2.71

3.33

-6.9

Over 2.5

2.03

2.16

-3.0

Under 2.5

1.78

1.86

-2.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Spal (6.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Spal in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Spal in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Spal’s performance at home.
Spal, at home, had 6 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 21 points, 63.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Spal scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Spal was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Pordenone

H

1

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Cosenza

A

1

1

D

U

G

31 Jan

Monza

H

1

1

D

U

G

24 Jan

Cremonese

A

1

1

D

U

G

18 Jan

Reggiana

H

2

0

W

U

N

04 Jan

Frosinone

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Dec

Brescia

H

2

3

L

O

G

27 Dec

Ascoli

A

0

2

L

U

N


Empoli in the last six matches had 3 wins, 3 draws, no defeats.and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Empoli in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Empoli’s performance as a guest.
Empoli, as a guest, had 5 wins, 5 draws, one defeat and gathered 20 points, 60.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Empoli scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Empoli was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Pescara

H

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Monza

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Frosinone

H

3

1

W

O

G

24 Jan

Lecce

A

2

2

D

O

G

17 Jan

Salernitana

H

5

0

W

O

N

04 Jan

Cosenza

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Ascoli

H

1

1

D

U

G

27 Dec

Brescia

A

3

1

W

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Spal and the red line for guest team, Empoli.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Spal

24%

33%

29%

14%

Empoli

33%

36%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Spal to score 1.2 goals and Empoli to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Spal to score 1.32 goals and Empoli to score 1.1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.64

1

5.13

2-3

1.97

2

3.80

4+

4.57

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.38

4

6.94

Un 1.5

3.64

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.16

6+

66.67

Un 2.5

1.86

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

4.57

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.57

3.44

3.13

2-3 goals

2.05

4.30

3.57

4+ goals

2.88

3.00

3.13

Ov 1.5

2.25

3.80

3.42

Un 1.5

2.57

3.44

3.13

Ov 2.5

2.04

6.34

2.84

Un 2.5

2.65

2.72

3.93

Ov 3.5

2.88

3.00

3.13

Un 3.5

2.21

3.95

3.40

Goal-Goal

2.79

2.66

3.76

No Goal

1.99

6.16

2.99

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.14

5.34

2.89

NG+Un 2.5

2.07

6.16

3.07


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Salernitana vs Vicenza at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Salernitana and Vicenza for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Salernitana

2.52

2.32

3.4

Draw

3.02

3.68

-5.9

Vicenza

3.28

3.37

-0.8

Over 2.5

2.12

2.22

-2.1

Under 2.5

1.76

1.82

-1.9

As you can see we have positive expected value at Salernitana (3.4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Salernitana in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Salernitana in the last three matches had no wins, 3 draws, no defeats. and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Salernitana’s performance at home.
Salernitana, at home, had 7 wins, 3 draws, one defeat and gathered 24 points, 72.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Salernitana scored in 10 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Salernitana was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Pisa

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Chievo

H

1

1

D

U

G

01 Feb

Reggina

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Pescara

H

2

0

W

U

N

17 Jan

Empoli

A

0

5

L

O

N

04 Jan

Pordenone

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Dec

Monza

A

0

3

L

O

N

27 Dec

Venezia

A

2

1

W

O

G


Vicenza in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Vicenza in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Vicenza’s performance as a guest.
Vicenza, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Vicenza scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 8 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Vicenza was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Monza

H

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Pordenone

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Jan

Venezia

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Reggiana

A

1

2

L

O

G

19 Jan

Chievo

H

1

1

D

U

G

15 Jan

Frosinone

H

0

0

D

U

N

04 Jan

Brescia

A

3

0

W

O

N

30 Dec

Virtus Entella

H

0

1

L

U

N


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Salernitana and the red line for guest team, Vicenza.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Salernitana

22%

41%

21%

16%

Vicenza

36%

32%

20%

12%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Salernitana to score 1.28 goals and Vicenza to score 1.07 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Salernitana to score 1.31 goals and Vicenza to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.39 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

12.50

0-1

3.36

1

4.59

2-3

2.07

2

3.98

4+

4.59

3

4.29

Ov 1.5

1.42

4

7.04

Un 1.5

3.36

5

17.54

Ov 2.5

2.22

6+

52.63

Un 2.5

1.82

Gg

2.01

Ov 3.5

4.59

NoG

1.99

Un 3.5

1.28

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.04

3.72

4.14

2-3 goals

2.42

3.69

3.16

4+ goals

2.56

3.57

3.03

Ov 1.5

2.46

3.66

3.12

Un 1.5

2.04

3.72

4.14

Ov 2.5

2.15

7.39

2.51

Un 2.5

2.48

2.60

4.69

Ov 3.5

2.56

3.57

3.03

Un 3.5

2.26

3.71

3.48

Goal-Goal

3.28

2.59

3.23

No Goal

1.80

6.28

3.51

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.41

6.02

2.38

NG+Un 2.5

1.89

6.28

3.57


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Pescara vs Venezia at 13 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Pescara and Venezia for Serie B (Italy), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Pescara

3.32

2.67

7.3

Draw

2.95

3.41

-4.6

Venezia

2.38

3.00

-8.7

Over 2.5

2.26

2.28

-0.4

Under 2.5

1.64

1.78

-4.8

As you can see we have positive expected value at Pescara (7.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Pescara in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Pescara in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Pescara’s performance at home.
Pescara, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Pescara scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Pescara was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Empoli

A

2

2

D

O

G

06 Feb

Reggina

H

0

2

L

U

N

31 Jan

Chievo

A

1

3

L

O

G

23 Jan

Salernitana

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Jan

Cremonese

H

0

2

L

U

N

04 Jan

Reggiana

A

1

0

W

U

N

30 Dec

Cosenza

H

0

0

D

U

N

27 Dec

Virtus Entella

A

0

3

L

O

N


Venezia in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Venezia in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Venezia’s performance as a guest.
Venezia, as a guest, had 3 wins, 6 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 45.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Venezia scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Venezia was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Cremonese

H

3

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Frosinone

A

2

1

W

O

G

29 Jan

Vicenza

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Cittadella

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Pordenone

A

0

2

L

U

N

04 Jan

Pisa

H

1

1

D

U

G

30 Dec

Chievo

A

1

1

D

U

G

27 Dec

Salernitana

H

1

2

L

O

G


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Pescara and the red line for guest team, Venezia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Pescara

26%

38%

25%

11%

Venezia

26%

43%

20%

11%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pescara to score 0.99 goals and Venezia to score 1.24 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pescara to score 1.22 goals and Venezia to score 1.15 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.71

0-1

3.58

1

4.74

2-3

1.92

2

3.56

4+

5.05

3

4.17

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

7.25

Un 1.5

3.58

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.28

6+

83.33

Un 2.5

1.79

Gg

1.84

Ov 3.5

5.05

NoG

2.20

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.79

4.10

2.51

2-3 goals