Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia at 13 February 2021
Apollon vs Atromitos at 13 February 2021
Aris vs Panetolikos at 14 February 2021
OFI Crete vs Volos NFC at 14 February 2021
Larisa vs AEK at 14 February 2021
Giannina vs PAOK at 15 February 2021
Asteras Tripolis vs Lamia at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Asteras Tripolis |
1.92 |
1.81 |
3.2 |
|
Draw |
2.96 |
3.85 |
-7.8 |
|
Lamia |
4.74 |
5.29 |
-2.2 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.51 |
2.39 |
2.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.53 |
1.72 |
-7.2 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Asteras Tripolis, Over 2.5 (3.2 %, 2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Asteras Tripolis in the last six matches had 6 wins, no draws, no defeats.and gathered 18 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Asteras Tripolis in the last three matches had 3 wins, no draws, no defeats. and gathered 9 points, 100.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Asteras Tripolis’s performance at home.
Asteras Tripolis, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Asteras Tripolis scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Asteras Tripolis was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
Volos NFC |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Aris |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
OFI Crete |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Larisa |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Panetolikos |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Olympiakos |
H |
0 |
4 |
L |
O |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
Lamia in the last six matches had one win, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 6 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Lamia in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 1 of them and kept clean sheet in all of them
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Lamia’s performance as a guest.
Lamia, as a guest, had no wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 12.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Lamia scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Lamia was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Jan |
Apollon |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Panetolikos |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Volos NFC |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
14 Jan |
Atromitos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
11 Jan |
AEK |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
07 Jan |
OFI Crete |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Aris |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Asteras Tripolis and the red line for guest team, Lamia.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Asteras Tripolis |
26% |
29% |
20% |
26% |
|
Lamia |
49% |
34% |
12% |
5% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.34 goals and Lamia to score 0.74 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and the home team Asteras Tripolis to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.45 goals and Lamia to score 0.73 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and the home team Asteras Tripolis to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
7.94 |
0-1 |
2.82 |
|
1 |
4.39 |
2-3 |
2.14 |
|
2 |
4.41 |
4+ |
5.62 |
|
3 |
4.15 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.55 |
|
4 |
8.06 |
Un 1.5 |
2.82 |
|
5 |
23.81 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.39 |
|
6+ |
83.33 |
Un 2.5 |
1.72 |
|
Gg |
2.65 |
Ov 3.5 |
5.62 |
|
NoG |
1.61 |
Un 3.5 |
1.22 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.49 |
2.81 |
4.12 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.60 |
4.87 |
5.85 |
|
4+ goals |
1.52 |
4.81 |
7.42 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.58 |
4.86 |
6.21 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.49 |
2.81 |
4.12 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.35 |
11.32 |
5.82 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.41 |
2.62 |
4.92 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.52 |
4.81 |
7.42 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.89 |
3.70 |
4.95 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.05 |
2.83 |
6.28 |
|
No Goal |
1.70 |
4.94 |
4.79 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.53 |
7.59 |
4.68 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.01 |
4.94 |
4.11 |
Go to Top
Apollon vs Atromitos at 13 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Apollon and Atromitos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 13 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Apollon |
2.69 |
2.93 |
-3.0 |
|
Draw |
2.84 |
3.44 |
-6.1 |
|
Atromitos |
2.77 |
2.72 |
0.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.32 |
2.68 |
-5.8 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
1.59 |
-0.4 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Atromitos (0.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Apollon in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Apollon in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Apollon’s performance at home.
Apollon, at home, had one win, one draw, 7 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 14.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Apollon scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Apollon was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
PAOK |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Olympiakos |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
27 Jan |
Lamia |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Aris |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Larisa |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Giannina |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Atromitos in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Atromitos in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Atromitos’s performance as a guest.
Atromitos, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Atromitos scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Atromitos was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Panathinaikos |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Giannina |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Jan |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
24 Jan |
Olympiakos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
AEK |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
14 Jan |
Lamia |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
OFI Crete |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
07 Jan |
PAOK |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Apollon and the red line for guest team, Atromitos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Apollon |
39% |
29% |
21% |
11% |
|
Atromitos |
34% |
33% |
26% |
7% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Apollon to score 1.1 goals and Atromitos to score 1.08 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Apollon to score 1.04 goals and Atromitos to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.11 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
7.63 |
0-1 |
2.79 |
|
1 |
4.41 |
2-3 |
2.09 |
|
2 |
3.73 |
4+ |
6.17 |
|
3 |
4.76 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.56 |
|
4 |
9.01 |
Un 1.5 |
2.79 |
|
5 |
23.26 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.69 |
|
6+ |
125.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.60 |
|
Gg |
2.47 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.17 |
|
NoG |
1.69 |
Un 3.5 |
1.20 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.62 |
2.73 |
2.80 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.67 |
4.93 |
2.37 |
|
4+ goals |
2.61 |
2.61 |
4.26 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.66 |
4.03 |
2.67 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.62 |
2.73 |
2.80 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.20 |
6.00 |
2.64 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.66 |
2.75 |
2.76 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
2.61 |
2.61 |
4.26 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.01 |
3.67 |
2.53 |
|
Goal-Goal |
3.05 |
2.55 |
3.58 |
|
No Goal |
2.86 |
4.53 |
2.33 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.32 |
4.97 |
2.73 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
3.09 |
4.53 |
2.33 |
Go to Top
Aris vs Panetolikos at 14 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Aris and Panetolikos for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 14 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Aris |
1.31 |
1.74 |
-18.9 |
|
Draw |
4.65 |
4.05 |
3.2 |
|
Panetolikos |
9.42 |
5.59 |
7.3 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.01 |
2.17 |
-3.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.79 |
1.85 |
-1.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Draw, Panetolikos (3.2 %, 7.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Aris in the last six matches had 3 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Aris in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Aris’s performance at home.
Aris, at home, had 6 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Aris scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 7 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Aris was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
AEK |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Larisa |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Apollon |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
14 Jan |
AEK |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
11 Jan |
Giannina |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
07 Jan |
Volos NFC |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Panetolikos in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Panetolikos in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Panetolikos’s performance as a guest.
Panetolikos, as a guest, had no wins, 4 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 13.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Panetolikos scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Panetolikos was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
08 Feb |
Giannina |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
PAOK |
A |
0 |
5 |
L |
O |
N |
|
28 Jan |
Atromitos |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
24 Jan |
Lamia |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Olympiakos |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Jan |
AEK |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
OFI Crete |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Aris and the red line for guest team, Panetolikos.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Aris |
26% |
25% |
17% |
32% |
|
Panetolikos |
50% |
34% |
13% |
4% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Aris to score 1.95 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.48 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and the home team Aris to win by 1.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Aris to score 1.56 goals and Panetolikos to score 0.72 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and the home team Aris to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
7.87 |
0-1 |
2.96 |
|
1 |
4.74 |
2-3 |
2.17 |
|
2 |
4.98 |
4+ |
4.98 |
|
3 |
3.86 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.51 |
|
4 |
7.14 |
Un 1.5 |
2.96 |
|
5 |
21.28 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.17 |
|
6+ |
71.43 |
Un 2.5 |
1.86 |
|
Gg |
2.67 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.98 |
|
NoG |
1.60 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.70 |
2.66 |
3.93 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.53 |
5.48 |
6.13 |
|
4+ goals |
1.37 |
5.58 |
11.17 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.48 |
5.51 |
7.11 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.70 |
2.66 |
3.93 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.27 |
12.78 |
7.54 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.57 |
2.55 |
4.57 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.37 |
5.58 |
11.17 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.87 |
3.78 |
4.96 |
|
Goal-Goal |
1.83 |
3.12 |
7.50 |
|
No Goal |
1.70 |
4.91 |
4.84 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.42 |
8.08 |
5.82 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.17 |
4.91 |
3.86 |
Go to Top
OFI Crete vs Volos NFC at 14 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between OFI Crete and Volos NFC for Super League (Greece), which will take place on 14 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
OFI Crete |
2.03 |
2.76 |
-13.0 |
|
Draw |
3.01 |
3.36 |
-3.5 |
|
Volos NFC |
4.09 |
2.93 |
9.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.16 |
2.75 |
-9.9 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.67 |
1.57 |
3.8 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Volos NFC, Under 2.5 (9.7 %, 3.8 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases significantly, -6.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
OFI Crete in the last six matches had no wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 5.6% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete didn’t score to any of them. and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
More recently, OFI Crete in the last three matches had no wins, no draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete didn’t score to any of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at OFI Crete’s performance at home.
OFI Crete, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 27.3% of the total available.
In these matches, OFI Crete scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of OFI Crete was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
Olympiakos |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
31 Jan |
AEK |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
PAOK |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
10 Jan |
Atromitos |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
07 Jan |
Lamia |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Panetolikos |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
Volos NFC in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Volos NFC in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC didn’t score to any of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Volos NFC’s performance as a guest.
Volos NFC, as a guest, had 3 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 42.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Volos NFC scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 6 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Volos NFC was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
07 Feb |
Asteras Tripolis |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Larisa |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
27 Jan |
Panathinaikos |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
24 Jan |
Giannina |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
17 Jan |
Lamia |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
10 Jan |
PAOK |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
07 Jan |
Aris |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
04 Jan |
Atromitos |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, OFI Crete and the red line for guest team, Volos NFC.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
OFI Crete |
32% |
40% |
18% |
10% |
|
Volos NFC |
37% |
33% |
20% |
10% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) OFI Crete to score 1.41 goals and Volos NFC to score 0.88 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team OFI Crete to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) OFI Crete to score 1.05 goals and Volos NFC to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.02 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
8.47 |
0-1 |
2.68 |
|
1 |
3.92 |
2-3 |
2.12 |
|
2 |
3.80 |
4+ |
6.41 |
|
3 |
4.81 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.59 |
|
4 |
9.17 |
Un 1.5 |
2.68 |
|
5 |
27.03 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.75 |
|
6+ |
100.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.57 |
|
Gg |
2.33 |
Ov 3.5 |
6.41 |
|
NoG |
1.75 |
Un 3.5 |
1.18 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.52 |
3.16 |
3.49 |
|
2-3 goals |