2021 02 16 Championship (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Wycombe vs Derby at 16 February 2021
Stoke vs Sheffield Weds at 16 February 2021
Preston vs Watford at 16 February 2021
Middlesbrough vs Huddersfield at 16 February 2021
Luton vs Cardiff at 16 February 2021
Bristol City vs Reading at 16 February 2021
QPR vs Brentford at 17 February 2021
Millwall vs Birmingham at 17 February 2021
Coventry vs Norwich at 17 February 2021
Bournemouth vs Rotherham at 17 February 2021
Barnsley vs Blackburn at 17 February 2021
Swansea vs Nott’m Forest at 17 February 2021


Wycombe vs Derby at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wycombe and Derby for Championship (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wycombe

4.48

2.46

18.3

Draw

3.31

3.51

-1.7

Derby

1.90

3.26

-22.0

Over 2.5

2.27

2.33

-1.1

Under 2.5

1.65

1.75

-3.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wycombe (18.3 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wycombe in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wycombe in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 1 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance at home.
Wycombe, at home, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Wycombe scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Huddersfield

A

3

2

W

O

G

09 Feb

Sheffield Weds

A

0

2

L

U

N

06 Feb

Nott’m Forest

H

0

3

L

O

N

02 Feb

Birmingham

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Brentford

A

2

7

L

O

G

02 Jan

Middlesbrough

H

1

3

L

O

G

29 Dec

Cardiff

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Bristol City

A

1

2

L

O

G


Derby in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Derby in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance as a guest.
Derby, as a guest, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Derby scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Middlesbrough

H

2

1

W

O

G

03 Feb

Rotherham

A

0

3

L

O

N

30 Jan

Bristol City

H

1

0

W

U

N

23 Jan

QPR

A

1

0

W

U

N

19 Jan

Bournemouth

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Rotherham

H

0

1

L

U

N

01 Jan

Sheffield Weds

A

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Birmingham

A

4

0

W

O

N


The form score for the Wycombe is -0.348 and for the Derby is 0.243.
The home dynamic for the Wycombe is -0.61 and the dynamic as a guest for the Derby is -0.092.
The offensive ability for the Wycombe is -0.53 and for the Derby is 0.253.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wycombe is -0.54 and for the Derby is 0.182.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wycombe and the red line for guest team, Derby.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wycombe

28%

37%

16%

19%

Derby

35%

37%

15%

13%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wycombe to score 0.8 goals and Derby to score 1.44 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and the guest team Derby to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wycombe to score 1.25 goals and Derby to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.90

0-1

2.96

1

4.22

2-3

2.23

2

4.27

4+

4.67

3

4.65

Ov 1.5

1.51

4

7.09

Un 1.5

2.96

5

20.83

Ov 2.5

2.33

6+

40.00

Un 2.5

1.75

Gg

2.16

Ov 3.5

4.67

NoG

1.86

Un 3.5

1.27

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.58

3.35

3.19

2-3 goals

2.51

3.28

3.38

4+ goals

2.18

4.46

3.15

Ov 1.5

2.39

3.58

3.30

Un 1.5

2.58

3.35

3.19

Ov 2.5

1.93

8.94

2.70

Un 2.5

3.08

2.40

3.86

Ov 3.5

2.18

4.46

3.15

Un 3.5

2.54

3.31

3.29

Goal-Goal

2.98

2.50

3.79

No Goal

2.13

5.34

2.91

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.10

6.77

2.66

NG+Un 2.5

2.34

5.34

2.94


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Stoke vs Sheffield Weds at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Stoke and Sheffield Weds for Championship (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Stoke

2.15

1.90

6.1

Draw

3.11

3.94

-6.8

Sheffield Weds

3.82

4.57

-4.3

Over 2.5

2.56

2.10

8.6

Under 2.5

1.52

1.91

-13.4

As you can see we have positive expected value at Stoke, Over 2.5 (6.1 %, 8.6 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Stoke in the last six matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stoke in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance at home.
Stoke, at home, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Stoke scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stoke was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Norwich

A

1

4

L

O

G

06 Feb

Reading

H

0

0

D

U

N

30 Jan

Huddersfield

A

1

1

D

U

G

22 Jan

Watford

H

1

2

L

O

G

19 Jan

Rotherham

A

3

3

D

O

G

16 Jan

Blackburn

A

1

1

D

U

G

02 Jan

Bournemouth

H

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Nott’m Forest

H

1

1

D

U

G


Sheffield Weds in the last six matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sheffield Weds in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance as a guest.
Sheffield Weds, as a guest, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Wycombe

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Millwall

A

1

4

L

O

G

02 Feb

Bournemouth

A

2

1

W

O

G

30 Jan

Preston

H

1

0

W

U

N

27 Jan

Coventry

A

0

2

L

U

N

01 Jan

Derby

H

1

0

W

U

N

29 Dec

Middlesbrough

H

2

1

W

O

G

26 Dec

Blackburn

A

1

1

D

U

G


The form score for the Stoke is -0.243 and for the Sheffield Weds is 0.217.
The home dynamic for the Stoke is -0.105 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sheffield Weds is -0.566.
The offensive ability for the Stoke is 0.454 and for the Sheffield Weds is 0.657.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Stoke is -0.465 and for the Sheffield Weds is 0.209.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Stoke and the red line for guest team, Sheffield Weds.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Stoke

20%

30%

29%

21%

Sheffield Weds

37%

42%

12%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.23 goals and Sheffield Weds to score 0.83 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and the home team Stoke to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Stoke to score 1.51 goals and Sheffield Weds to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the home team Stoke to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.51

0-1

3.73

1

5.15

2-3

1.96

2

3.91

4+

4.46

3

3.95

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.62

Un 1.5

3.73

5

18.87

Ov 2.5

2.10

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.91

Gg

1.98

Ov 3.5

4.46

NoG

2.02

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.44

3.62

3.19

2-3 goals

1.68

4.07

6.28

4+ goals

1.96

4.07

4.07

Ov 1.5

1.76

4.07

5.39

Un 1.5

2.44

3.62

3.19

Ov 2.5

1.53

8.67

4.30

Un 2.5

2.43

2.63

4.81

Ov 3.5

1.96

4.07

4.07

Un 3.5

1.88

3.90

4.71

Goal-Goal

2.16

2.81

5.50

No Goal

1.69

6.69

3.87

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.63

6.93

4.14

NG+Un 2.5

1.85

6.69

3.66


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Preston vs Watford at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Preston and Watford for Championship (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Preston

3.93

2.47

15.0

Draw

3.15

3.62

-4.1

Watford

2.08

3.13

-16.1

Over 2.5

2.35

2.24

2.1

Under 2.5

1.60

1.81

-7.3

As you can see we have positive expected value at Preston, Over 2.5 (15 %, 2.1 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Preston in the last six matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Preston in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance at home.
Preston, at home, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Preston scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

12 Feb

Blackburn

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Rotherham

H

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Sheffield Weds

A

0

1

L

U

N

24 Jan

Reading

H

0

0

D

U

N

20 Jan

Birmingham

A

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Bristol City

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Jan

Nott’m Forest

H

0

1

L

U

N

29 Dec

Coventry

H

2

0

W

U

N


Watford in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Watford in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance as a guest.
Watford, as a guest, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 38.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Watford scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Bristol City

H

6

0

W

O

N

06 Feb

Coventry

A

0

0

D

U

N

01 Feb

QPR

H

1

2

L

O

G

26 Jan

Millwall

A

0

0

D

U

N

22 Jan

Stoke

A

2

1

W

O

G

19 Jan

Barnsley

H

1

0

W

U

N

16 Jan

Huddersfield

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Swansea

A

1

2

L

O

G


The form score for the Preston is 0 and for the Watford is 0.191.
The home dynamic for the Preston is -0.4 and the dynamic as a guest for the Watford is 0.004.
The offensive ability for the Preston is -0.388 and for the Watford is 0.202.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Preston is -0.112 and for the Watford is 0.664.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Preston and the red line for guest team, Watford.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Preston

30%

35%

15%

20%

Watford

37%

32%

17%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Preston to score 0.85 goals and Watford to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and the guest team Watford to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Preston to score 1.25 goals and Watford to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.33 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.17 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

9.01

0-1

2.99

1

4.46

2-3

2.26

2

4.57

4+

4.50

3

4.48

Ov 1.5

1.51

4

7.25

Un 1.5

2.99

5

17.86

Ov 2.5

2.25

6+

35.71

Un 2.5

1.81

Gg

2.27

Ov 3.5

4.50

NoG

1.79

Un 3.5

1.29

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.62

3.02

3.49

2-3 goals

2.48

3.98

2.89

4+ goals

2.24

4.11

3.22

Ov 1.5

2.40

4.02

2.99

Un 1.5

2.62

3.02

3.49

Ov 2.5

2.01

8.24

2.62

Un 2.5

3.01

2.50

3.74

Ov 3.5

2.24

4.11

3.22

Un 3.5

2.54

3.50

3.12

Goal-Goal

3.00

2.67

3.42

No Goal

2.16

5.03

2.95

G-G+Ov 2.5

2.24

6.11

2.56

NG+Un 2.5

2.41

5.03

2.99


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

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Middlesbrough vs Huddersfield at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Middlesbrough and Huddersfield for Championship (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Middlesbrough

1.92

2.01

-2.3

Draw

3.47

3.85

-2.8

Huddersfield

4.18

4.10

0.5

Over 2.5

2.09

2.08

0.2

Under 2.5

1.76

1.93

-5.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Huddersfield, Over 2.5 (0.5 %, 0.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Middlesbrough in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Middlesbrough in the last three matches had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance at home.
Middlesbrough, at home, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 54.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Derby

A

1

2

L

O

G

06 Feb

Brentford

H

1

4

L

O

G

30 Jan

Norwich

A

0

0

D

U

N

27 Jan

Rotherham

H

0

3

L

O

N

24 Jan

Blackburn

H

0

1

L

U

N

20 Jan

Nott’m Forest

A

2

1

W

O

G

16 Jan

Birmingham

H

0

1

L

U

N

02 Jan

Wycombe

A

3

1

W

O

G


Huddersfield in the last six matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Huddersfield in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance as a guest.
Huddersfield, as a guest, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Wycombe

H

2

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Luton

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

Stoke

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Jan

Bristol City

A

1

2

L

O

G

20 Jan

Millwall

H

0

1

L

U

N

16 Jan

Watford

A

0

2

L

U

N

02 Jan

Reading

H

1

2

L

O

G

29 Dec

Blackburn

H

2

1

W

O

G


The form score for the Middlesbrough is -0.478 and for the Huddersfield is -0.93.
The home dynamic for the Middlesbrough is 0.01 and the dynamic as a guest for the Huddersfield is -0.582.
The offensive ability for the Middlesbrough is -0.421 and for the Huddersfield is 0.339.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Middlesbrough is -0.497 and for the Huddersfield is -1.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Middlesbrough and the red line for guest team, Huddersfield.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Middlesbrough

21%

32%

27%

20%

Huddersfield

36%

38%

17%

10%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.5 goals and Huddersfield to score 0.87 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 0.63 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Middlesbrough to score 1.47 goals and Huddersfield to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Middlesbrough to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.33

0-1

3.73

1

5.18

2-3

2.00

2

3.98

4+

4.29

3

4.02

Ov 1.5

1.36

4

6.54

Un 1.5

3.73

5

16.67

Ov 2.5

2.07

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

1.93

Gg

1.97

Ov 3.5

4.29

NoG

2.03

Un 3.5

1.30

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.33

3.57