# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Wycombe vs Derby at 16 February 2021**** Stoke vs Sheffield Weds at 16 February 2021**** Preston vs Watford at 16 February 2021**** Middlesbrough vs Huddersfield at 16 February 2021**** Luton vs Cardiff at 16 February 2021**** Bristol City vs Reading at 16 February 2021**** QPR vs Brentford at 17 February 2021**** Millwall vs Birmingham at 17 February 2021**** Coventry vs Norwich at 17 February 2021**** Bournemouth vs Rotherham at 17 February 2021**** Barnsley vs Blackburn at 17 February 2021**** Swansea vs Nott’m Forest at 17 February 2021**

###
Wycombe vs Derby at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wycombe** and **Derby** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **16 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wycombe |
4.48 |
2.46 |
18.3 |

Draw |
3.31 |
3.51 |
-1.7 |

Derby |
1.90 |
3.26 |
-22.0 |

Over 2.5 |
2.27 |
2.33 |
-1.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.65 |
1.75 |
-3.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wycombe (18.3 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wycombe** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wycombe** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 1 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Wycombe’s performance** at home**.

Wycombe,** at home**, had 2 wins, 5 draws, 7 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Wycombe scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 6 of them both teams scored, and in 8 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wycombe was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Huddersfield |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

09 Feb |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

02 Feb |
Birmingham |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Brentford |
A |
2 |
7 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Jan |
Middlesbrough |
H |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Cardiff |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Bristol City |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

**Derby** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Derby** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Derby’s performance** as a guest**.

Derby,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 38.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Derby scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Derby was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Middlesbrough |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

03 Feb |
Rotherham |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

30 Jan |
Bristol City |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
QPR |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

19 Jan |
Bournemouth |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Rotherham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Jan |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Birmingham |
A |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

The form score for the **Wycombe** is **-0.348** and for the **Derby** is **0.243.**

The home dynamic for the **Wycombe** is **-0.61** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Derby** is **-0.092.**

The offensive ability for the **Wycombe** is **-0.53** and for the **Derby** is **0.253.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wycombe** is **-0.54** and for the **Derby** is **0.182.**

You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK**

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wycombe** and the red line for guest team, **Derby. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wycombe |
28% |
37% |
16% |
19% |

Derby |
35% |
37% |
15% |
13% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wycombe** to score **0.8 ** goals and **Derby** to score **1.44 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.24** goals in the game and the guest team **Derby ** to win by **0.64** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wycombe** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Derby** to score **1.05 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.3** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.2** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.90 |
0-1 |
2.96 |

1 |
4.22 |
2-3 |
2.23 |

2 |
4.27 |
4+ |
4.67 |

3 |
4.65 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.51 |

4 |
7.09 |
Un 1.5 |
2.96 |

5 |
20.83 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.33 |

6+ |
40.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.75 |

Gg |
2.16 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.67 |

NoG |
1.86 |
Un 3.5 |
1.27 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.58 |
3.35 |
3.19 |

2-3 goals |
2.51 |
3.28 |
3.38 |

4+ goals |
2.18 |
4.46 |
3.15 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.39 |
3.58 |
3.30 |

Un 1.5 |
2.58 |
3.35 |
3.19 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.93 |
8.94 |
2.70 |

Un 2.5 |
3.08 |
2.40 |
3.86 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.18 |
4.46 |
3.15 |

Un 3.5 |
2.54 |
3.31 |
3.29 |

Goal-Goal |
2.98 |
2.50 |
3.79 |

No Goal |
2.13 |
5.34 |
2.91 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |
6.77 |
2.66 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.34 |
5.34 |
2.94 |

####
Go to Top

###
Stoke vs Sheffield Weds at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Stoke** and **Sheffield Weds** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **16 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Stoke |
2.15 |
1.90 |
6.1 |

Draw |
3.11 |
3.94 |
-6.8 |

Sheffield Weds |
3.82 |
4.57 |
-4.3 |

Over 2.5 |
2.56 |
2.10 |
8.6 |

Under 2.5 |
1.52 |
1.91 |
-13.4 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Stoke, Over 2.5 (6.1 %, 8.6 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Stoke** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stoke** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Stoke’s performance** at home**.

Stoke,** at home**, had 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 45.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Stoke scored in 11 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stoke was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Norwich |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Reading |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Huddersfield |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

22 Jan |
Watford |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Rotherham |
A |
3 |
3 |
D |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

02 Jan |
Bournemouth |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

**Sheffield Weds** in the **last six** matches had 4 wins, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 12 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sheffield Weds** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Sheffield Weds’s performance** as a guest**.

Sheffield Weds,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 2 draws, 9 defeats, and gathered 11 points, 26.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Sheffield Weds scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 12 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 10 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 9 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sheffield Weds was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Millwall |
A |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Bournemouth |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Preston |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

01 Jan |
Derby |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Middlesbrough |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

26 Dec |
Blackburn |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

The form score for the **Stoke** is **-0.243** and for the **Sheffield Weds** is **0.217.**

The home dynamic for the **Stoke** is **-0.105** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Sheffield Weds** is **-0.566.**

The offensive ability for the **Stoke** is **0.454** and for the **Sheffield Weds** is **0.657.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Stoke** is **-0.465** and for the **Sheffield Weds** is **0.209.**

You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK**

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Stoke** and the red line for guest team, **Sheffield Weds. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Stoke |
20% |
30% |
29% |
21% |

Sheffield Weds |
37% |
42% |
12% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Stoke** to score **1.23 ** goals and **Sheffield Weds** to score **0.83 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.06** goals in the game and the home team **Stoke ** to win by **0.4** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Stoke** to score **1.51 ** goals and **Sheffield Weds** to score **0.94 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.45** goals in the game and the home team **Stoke ** to win by **0.57** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.51 |
0-1 |
3.73 |

1 |
5.15 |
2-3 |
1.96 |

2 |
3.91 |
4+ |
4.46 |

3 |
3.95 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.62 |
Un 1.5 |
3.73 |

5 |
18.87 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.10 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.91 |

Gg |
1.98 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.46 |

NoG |
2.02 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.44 |
3.62 |
3.19 |

2-3 goals |
1.68 |
4.07 |
6.28 |

4+ goals |
1.96 |
4.07 |
4.07 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.76 |
4.07 |
5.39 |

Un 1.5 |
2.44 |
3.62 |
3.19 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.53 |
8.67 |
4.30 |

Un 2.5 |
2.43 |
2.63 |
4.81 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.96 |
4.07 |
4.07 |

Un 3.5 |
1.88 |
3.90 |
4.71 |

Goal-Goal |
2.16 |
2.81 |
5.50 |

No Goal |
1.69 |
6.69 |
3.87 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.63 |
6.93 |
4.14 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.85 |
6.69 |
3.66 |

####
Go to Top

###
Preston vs Watford at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Preston** and **Watford** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **16 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Preston |
3.93 |
2.47 |
15.0 |

Draw |
3.15 |
3.62 |
-4.1 |

Watford |
2.08 |
3.13 |
-16.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.35 |
2.24 |
2.1 |

Under 2.5 |
1.60 |
1.81 |
-7.3 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Preston, Over 2.5 (15 %, 2.1 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.**Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore**

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Preston** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 38.9% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Preston** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Preston’s performance** at home**.

Preston,** at home**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 14 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Preston scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 9 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 9 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 11 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Preston was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

12 Feb |
Blackburn |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Rotherham |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Sheffield Weds |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

24 Jan |
Reading |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Birmingham |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Bristol City |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Nott’m Forest |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

29 Dec |
Coventry |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Watford** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Watford** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Watford’s performance** as a guest**.

Watford,** as a guest**, had 3 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 16 points, 38.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Watford scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 12 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Watford was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Bristol City |
H |
6 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

06 Feb |
Coventry |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

01 Feb |
QPR |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Millwall |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

22 Jan |
Stoke |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Barnsley |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Huddersfield |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Swansea |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Preston** is **0** and for the **Watford** is **0.191.**

The home dynamic for the **Preston** is **-0.4** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Watford** is **0.004.**

The offensive ability for the **Preston** is **-0.388** and for the **Watford** is **0.202.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Preston** is **-0.112** and for the **Watford** is **0.664.**

You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK**

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Preston** and the red line for guest team, **Watford. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Preston |
30% |
35% |
15% |
20% |

Watford |
37% |
32% |
17% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Preston** to score **0.85 ** goals and **Watford** to score **1.32 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.18** goals in the game and the guest team **Watford ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Preston** to score **1.25 ** goals and **Watford** to score **1.08 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.33** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.17** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
9.01 |
0-1 |
2.99 |

1 |
4.46 |
2-3 |
2.26 |

2 |
4.57 |
4+ |
4.50 |

3 |
4.48 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.51 |

4 |
7.25 |
Un 1.5 |
2.99 |

5 |
17.86 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.25 |

6+ |
35.71 |
Un 2.5 |
1.81 |

Gg |
2.27 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.50 |

NoG |
1.79 |
Un 3.5 |
1.29 |

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.62 |
3.02 |
3.49 |

2-3 goals |
2.48 |
3.98 |
2.89 |

4+ goals |
2.24 |
4.11 |
3.22 |

Ov 1.5 |
2.40 |
4.02 |
2.99 |

Un 1.5 |
2.62 |
3.02 |
3.49 |

Ov 2.5 |
2.01 |
8.24 |
2.62 |

Un 2.5 |
3.01 |
2.50 |
3.74 |

Ov 3.5 |
2.24 |
4.11 |
3.22 |

Un 3.5 |
2.54 |
3.50 |
3.12 |

Goal-Goal |
3.00 |
2.67 |
3.42 |

No Goal |
2.16 |
5.03 |
2.95 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.24 |
6.11 |
2.56 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.41 |
5.03 |
2.99 |

####
Go to Top

###
Middlesbrough vs Huddersfield at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Middlesbrough** and **Huddersfield** for **Championship (England)**, which will take place on **16 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Middlesbrough |
1.92 |
2.01 |
-2.3 |

Draw |
3.47 |
3.85 |
-2.8 |

Huddersfield |
4.18 |
4.10 |
0.5 |

Over 2.5 |
2.09 |
2.08 |
0.2 |

Under 2.5 |
1.76 |
1.93 |
-5.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Huddersfield, Over 2.5 (0.5 %, 0.2 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Middlesbrough** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 3 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Middlesbrough** in the **last three matches** had no wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 1 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Middlesbrough’s performance** at home**.

Middlesbrough,** at home**, had 7 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats, and gathered 23 points, 54.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Middlesbrough scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 8 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 10 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Middlesbrough was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Derby |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Brentford |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Norwich |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

27 Jan |
Rotherham |
H |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

24 Jan |
Blackburn |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

20 Jan |
Nott’m Forest |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Birmingham |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Wycombe |
A |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Huddersfield** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, and gathered 2 points, 11.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Huddersfield** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Huddersfield’s performance** as a guest**.

Huddersfield,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, 4 draws, 8 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 23.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Huddersfield scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 11 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 9 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 7 of them both teams scored, and in 7 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Huddersfield was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Wycombe |
H |
2 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Luton |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
Stoke |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Jan |
Bristol City |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

20 Jan |
Millwall |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Watford |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Reading |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

29 Dec |
Blackburn |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Middlesbrough** is **-0.478** and for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.93.**

The home dynamic for the **Middlesbrough** is **0.01** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Huddersfield** is **-0.582.**

The offensive ability for the **Middlesbrough** is **-0.421** and for the **Huddersfield** is **0.339.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Middlesbrough** is **-0.497** and for the **Huddersfield** is **-1.**

You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK**

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Middlesbrough** and the red line for guest team, **Huddersfield. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Middlesbrough |
21% |
32% |
27% |
20% |

Huddersfield |
36% |
38% |
17% |
10% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Middlesbrough** to score **1.5 ** goals and **Huddersfield** to score **0.87 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.37** goals in the game and the home team **Middlesbrough ** to win by **0.63** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Middlesbrough** to score **1.47 ** goals and **Huddersfield** to score **1 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.47** goals in the game and the home team **Middlesbrough ** to win by **0.47** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.33 |
0-1 |
3.73 |

1 |
5.18 |
2-3 |
2.00 |

2 |
3.98 |
4+ |
4.29 |

3 |
4.02 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.36 |

4 |
6.54 |
Un 1.5 |
3.73 |

5 |
16.67 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.07 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
1.93 |

Gg |
1.97 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.29 |

NoG |
2.03 |
Un 3.5 |
1.30 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.33 |
3.57 |