Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Dag and Red vs Bromley at 16 February 2021
Wrexham vs Woking at 16 February 2021
Sutton vs Dover Athletic at 16 February 2021
Maidenhead vs Stockport at 16 February 2021
Eastleigh vs Hartlepool at 16 February 2021
Boreham Wood vs Yeovil at 16 February 2021
Barnet vs Halifax at 16 February 2021
Aldershot vs Solihull at 16 February 2021
King’s Lynn vs Notts County at 16 February 2021
Dag and Red vs Bromley at 16 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Dag and Red and Bromley for Conference (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Dag and Red |
2.94 |
3.33 |
-4.0 |
|
Draw |
3.34 |
3.64 |
-2.5 |
|
Bromley |
2.26 |
2.35 |
-1.7 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.98 |
-2.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.02 |
-3.1 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Dag and Red in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dag and Red in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance at home.
Dag and Red, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dag and Red was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Feb |
Notts County |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Wrexham |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Chesterfield |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
23 Jan |
King’s Lynn |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Stockport |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Dover Athletic |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
15 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
Bromley in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance as a guest.
Bromley, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 14 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bromley was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Feb |
King’s Lynn |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Aldershot |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Woking |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Dec |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
The form score for the Dag and Red is -0.235 and for the Bromley is 0.026.
The home dynamic for the Dag and Red is -0.2 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bromley is 0.542.
The offensive ability for the Dag and Red is 0.126 and for the Bromley is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Dag and Red is -1 and for the Bromley is 0.245.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dag and Red and the red line for guest team, Bromley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Dag and Red |
25% |
44% |
20% |
11% |
|
Bromley |
23% |
33% |
26% |
19% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.15 goals and Bromley to score 1.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.17 goals and Bromley to score 1.4 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
17.86 |
0-1 |
4.18 |
|
1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
1.98 |
|
2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
3.94 |
|
3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |
|
4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
4.18 |
|
5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
Gg |
1.72 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |
|
NoG |
2.40 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.37 |
4.27 |
2.91 |
|
2-3 goals |
3.74 |
3.44 |
2.26 |
|
4+ goals |
4.03 |
3.58 |
2.12 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
3.83 |
3.48 |
2.21 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.37 |
4.27 |
2.91 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
3.29 |
7.10 |
1.80 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.38 |
2.43 |
3.41 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
4.03 |
3.58 |
2.12 |
|
Un 3.5 |
3.15 |
3.67 |
2.44 |
|
Goal-Goal |
4.50 |
2.67 |
2.48 |
|
No Goal |
2.45 |
7.45 |
2.18 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.36 |
6.11 |
1.85 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.38 |
7.45 |
2.39 |
Go to Top
Wrexham vs Woking at 16 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and Woking for Conference (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Wrexham |
2.23 |
1.99 |
5.4 |
|
Draw |
3.19 |
3.98 |
-6.2 |
|
Woking |
3.15 |
4.05 |
-7.1 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.35 |
1.95 |
8.7 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
2.05 |
-14.5 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Wrexham, Over 2.5 (5.4 %, 8.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Wrexham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
09 Feb |
Altrincham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
06 Feb |
Dag and Red |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
02 Feb |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
30 Jan |
King’s Lynn |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Halifax |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Chesterfield |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
16 Jan |
Dover Athletic |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Woking in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance as a guest.
Woking, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Maidenhead |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
28 Dec |
Eastleigh |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Aldershot |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |
|
12 Dec |
Hartlepool |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
The form score for the Wrexham is 0.435 and for the Woking is -0.757.
The home dynamic for the Wrexham is 0.257 and the dynamic as a guest for the Woking is -0.382.
The offensive ability for the Wrexham is 0.563 and for the Woking is -0.433.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wrexham is -0.112 and for the Woking is -0.209.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, Woking.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Wrexham |
22% |
28% |
26% |
24% |
|
Woking |
35% |
37% |
20% |
9% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.21 goals and Woking to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.52 goals and Woking to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.95 |
|
1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
3.86 |
|
3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |
|
4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |
|
5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |
|
Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.86 |
|
NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.61 |
3.33 |
3.16 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.82 |
4.76 |
4.15 |
|
4+ goals |
1.89 |
3.55 |
5.29 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.84 |
4.26 |
4.49 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.61 |
3.33 |
3.16 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
7.03 |
4.14 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.61 |
2.73 |
3.98 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.89 |
3.55 |
5.29 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.03 |
4.15 |
3.75 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.21 |
2.91 |
4.92 |
|
No Goal |
1.81 |
6.45 |
3.43 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
5.60 |
3.93 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
6.45 |
3.14 |
Go to Top
Sutton vs Dover Athletic at 16 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Sutton and Dover Athletic for Conference (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Sutton |
1.54 |
1.59 |
-2.0 |
|
Draw |
4.05 |
4.48 |
-2.4 |
|
Dover Athletic |
5.26 |
6.67 |
-4.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.71 |
2.09 |
-10.6 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.08 |
1.92 |
4.0 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Sutton in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sutton in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance at home.
Sutton, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sutton was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Feb |
Boreham Wood |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Feb |
Stockport |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Hartlepool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
26 Jan |
Torquay |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
23 Jan |
Eastleigh |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
09 Jan |
Altrincham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
08 Dec |
Chesterfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
05 Dec |
Solihull |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
Dover Athletic in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dover Athletic in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Dover Athletic’s performance as a guest.
Dover Athletic, as a guest, had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dover Athletic was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
30 Jan |
Yeovil |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
26 Jan |
Barnet |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Solihull |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
16 Jan |
Wrexham |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
26 Dec |
Dag and Red |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
21 Nov |
King’s Lynn |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
17 Nov |
Woking |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |
The form score for the Sutton is 0.591 and for the Dover Athletic is -0.739.
The home dynamic for the Sutton is 0.571 and the dynamic as a guest for the Dover Athletic is -1.
The offensive ability for the Sutton is 0.016 and for the Dover Athletic is 0.288.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sutton is 1 and for the Dover Athletic is -1.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK
The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sutton and the red line for guest team, Dover Athletic.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Sutton |
20% |
22% |
28% |
29% |
|
Dover Athletic |
49% |
37% |
10% |
4% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.96 goals and Dover Athletic to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Sutton to win by 1.17 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.66 goals and Dover Athletic to score 0.7 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Sutton to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
10.00 |
0-1 |
3.53 |
|
1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
1.94 |
|
2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
4.98 |
|
3 |
3.61 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |
|
4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.53 |
|
5 |
23.26 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |
|
6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |
|
Gg |
2.46 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.98 |
|
NoG |
1.69 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
2.62 |
2.83 |
3.77 |
|
2-3 goals |
1.35 |
6.37 |
9.92 |
|
4+ goals |
1.47 |
4.90 |
8.74 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |
5.88 |
9.56 |
|
Un 1.5 |
2.62 |
2.83 |
3.77 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
1.25 |
11.66 |
8.85 |
|
Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.88 |
5.44 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
1.47 |
4.90 |
8.74 |
|
Un 3.5 |
1.63 |
4.41 |
6.29 |
|
Goal-Goal |
1.70 |
3.34 |
9.04 |
|
No Goal |
1.53 |
5.93 |
5.65 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.36 |
7.95 |
7.24 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
1.80 |
5.93 |
4.59 |
Go to Top
Maidenhead vs Stockport at 16 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Maidenhead and Stockport for Conference (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Maidenhead |
4.21 |
2.61 |
14.6 |
|
Draw |
3.82 |
3.69 |
0.9 |
|
Stockport |
1.72 |
2.89 |
-23.5 |
|
Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
2.02 |
-8.0 |
|
Under 2.5 |
2.05 |
1.98 |
1.7 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Maidenhead, Draw, Under 2.5 (14.6 %, 0.9 %, 1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Maidenhead in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance at home.
Maidenhead, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
06 Feb |
Boreham Wood |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Halifax |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
27 Jan |
Yeovil |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Woking |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
26 Dec |
Wealdstone |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |
|
08 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
05 Dec |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
28 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
Stockport in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.
Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance as a guest.
Stockport, as a guest, had 6 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stockport was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Feb |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Feb |
Sutton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |
|
30 Jan |
Woking |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
23 Jan |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Dag and Red |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
02 Jan |
Altrincham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
28 Dec |
Wrexham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The form score for the Maidenhead is 0.374 and for the Stockport is 0.191.
The home dynamic for the Maidenhead is 0.181 and the dynamic as a guest for the Stockport is 0.478.
The offensive ability for the Maidenhead is -0.06 and for the Stockport is 0.142.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Maidenhead is -0.112 and for the Stockport is 0.273.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maidenhead and the red line for guest team, Stockport.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Maidenhead |
25% |
36% |
23% |
16% |
|
Stockport |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 0.93 goals and Stockport to score 1.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the guest team Stockport to win by 0.86 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.3 goals and Stockport to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.86 |
|
1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
2.04 |
|
2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
3.98 |
|
3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |
|
4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |
|
5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |
|
6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |
|
Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.98 |
|
NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |