# Division Analysis

** In this article we will analyse the following games: **

** Dag and Red vs Bromley at 16 February 2021**** Wrexham vs Woking at 16 February 2021**** Sutton vs Dover Athletic at 16 February 2021**** Maidenhead vs Stockport at 16 February 2021**** Eastleigh vs Hartlepool at 16 February 2021**** Boreham Wood vs Yeovil at 16 February 2021**** Barnet vs Halifax at 16 February 2021**** Aldershot vs Solihull at 16 February 2021**** King’s Lynn vs Notts County at 16 February 2021**

###
Dag and Red vs Bromley at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Dag and Red** and **Bromley** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **16 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Dag and Red |
2.94 |
3.33 |
-4.0 |

Draw |
3.34 |
3.64 |
-2.5 |

Bromley |
2.26 |
2.35 |
-1.7 |

Over 2.5 |
1.88 |
1.98 |
-2.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.90 |
2.02 |
-3.1 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at ** ( %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Dag and Red** in the **last six** matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.

In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dag and Red** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Dag and Red** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, **all of them finished with three or more goals scored.**

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance** at home**.

Dag and Red,** at home**, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.

In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dag and Red was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
Notts County |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Wrexham |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Chesterfield |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Eastleigh |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

23 Jan |
King’s Lynn |
H |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

19 Jan |
Stockport |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Dover Athletic |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

15 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

**Bromley** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Bromley** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley** scored in all of them** and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance** as a guest**.

Bromley,** as a guest**, had 4 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 14 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Bromley scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
King’s Lynn |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Weymouth |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

30 Jan |
Aldershot |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Woking |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Halifax |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Dec |
Solihull |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

08 Dec |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Stockport |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Dag and Red** is **-0.235** and for the **Bromley** is **0.026.**

The home dynamic for the **Dag and Red** is **-0.2** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Bromley** is **0.542.**

The offensive ability for the **Dag and Red** is **0.126** and for the **Bromley** is **1.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Dag and Red** is **-1** and for the **Bromley** is **0.245.**

You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK**

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Dag and Red** and the red line for guest team, **Bromley. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Dag and Red |
25% |
44% |
20% |
11% |

Bromley |
23% |
33% |
26% |
19% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Dag and Red** to score **1.15 ** goals and **Bromley** to score **1.4 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.25** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Dag and Red** to score **1.17 ** goals and **Bromley** to score **1.4 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.57** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **-0.23** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
17.86 |
0-1 |
4.18 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
1.98 |

2 |
3.92 |
4+ |
3.94 |

3 |
4.00 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.32 |

4 |
5.88 |
Un 1.5 |
4.18 |

5 |
15.62 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.98 |

6+ |
50.00 |
Un 2.5 |
2.02 |

Gg |
1.72 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.94 |

NoG |
2.40 |
Un 3.5 |
1.34 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.37 |
4.27 |
2.91 |

2-3 goals |
3.74 |
3.44 |
2.26 |

4+ goals |
4.03 |
3.58 |
2.12 |

Ov 1.5 |
3.83 |
3.48 |
2.21 |

Un 1.5 |
2.37 |
4.27 |
2.91 |

Ov 2.5 |
3.29 |
7.10 |
1.80 |

Un 2.5 |
3.38 |
2.43 |
3.41 |

Ov 3.5 |
4.03 |
3.58 |
2.12 |

Un 3.5 |
3.15 |
3.67 |
2.44 |

Goal-Goal |
4.50 |
2.67 |
2.48 |

No Goal |
2.45 |
7.45 |
2.18 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
3.36 |
6.11 |
1.85 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.38 |
7.45 |
2.39 |

####
Go to Top

###
Wrexham vs Woking at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Wrexham** and **Woking** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **16 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Wrexham |
2.23 |
1.99 |
5.4 |

Draw |
3.19 |
3.98 |
-6.2 |

Woking |
3.15 |
4.05 |
-7.1 |

Over 2.5 |
2.35 |
1.95 |
8.7 |

Under 2.5 |
1.58 |
2.05 |
-14.5 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Wrexham, Over 2.5 (5.4 %, 8.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Wrexham** in the **last six** matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Wrexham** in the **last three matches** had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham** scored in all of them**** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also,**both teams scored in all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance** at home**.

Wrexham,** at home**, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Wrexham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

09 Feb |
Altrincham |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

06 Feb |
Dag and Red |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

02 Feb |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

30 Jan |
King’s Lynn |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Halifax |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Chesterfield |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

16 Jan |
Dover Athletic |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

28 Dec |
Stockport |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Woking** in the **last six** matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Woking** in the **last three matches** had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance** as a guest**.

Woking,** as a guest**, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Woking scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Stockport |
H |
1 |
4 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Bromley |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Maidenhead |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

28 Dec |
Eastleigh |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Aldershot |
A |
0 |
3 |
L |
O |
N |

12 Dec |
Hartlepool |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

05 Dec |
Notts County |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Wrexham** is **0.435** and for the **Woking** is **-0.757.**

The home dynamic for the **Wrexham** is **0.257** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Woking** is **-0.382.**

The offensive ability for the **Wrexham** is **0.563** and for the **Woking** is **-0.433.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Wrexham** is **-0.112** and for the **Woking** is **-0.209.**

You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK**

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Wrexham** and the red line for guest team, **Woking. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Wrexham |
22% |
28% |
26% |
24% |

Woking |
35% |
37% |
20% |
9% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Wrexham** to score **1.21 ** goals and **Woking** to score **0.95 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.16** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.26** on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Wrexham** to score **1.52 ** goals and **Woking** to score **1.03 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.55** goals in the game and the home team **Wrexham ** to win by **0.49** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
13.16 |
0-1 |
3.95 |

1 |
5.65 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.24 |
4+ |
3.86 |

3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.34 |

4 |
6.06 |
Un 1.5 |
3.95 |

5 |
13.89 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.95 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
2.04 |

Gg |
1.95 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.86 |

NoG |
2.04 |
Un 3.5 |
1.35 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.61 |
3.33 |
3.16 |

2-3 goals |
1.82 |
4.76 |
4.15 |

4+ goals |
1.89 |
3.55 |
5.29 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.84 |
4.26 |
4.49 |

Un 1.5 |
2.61 |
3.33 |
3.16 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.62 |
7.03 |
4.14 |

Un 2.5 |
2.61 |
2.73 |
3.98 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.89 |
3.55 |
5.29 |

Un 3.5 |
2.03 |
4.15 |
3.75 |

Goal-Goal |
2.21 |
2.91 |
4.92 |

No Goal |
1.81 |
6.45 |
3.43 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.76 |
5.60 |
3.93 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
2.06 |
6.45 |
3.14 |

####
Go to Top

###
Sutton vs Dover Athletic at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Sutton** and **Dover Athletic** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **16 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Sutton |
1.54 |
1.59 |
-2.0 |

Draw |
4.05 |
4.48 |
-2.4 |

Dover Athletic |
5.26 |
6.67 |
-4.0 |

Over 2.5 |
1.71 |
2.09 |
-10.6 |

Under 2.5 |
2.08 |
1.92 |
4.0 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Under 2.5 (4 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Sutton** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Sutton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Sutton** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sutton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance** at home**.

Sutton,** at home**, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Sutton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Sutton was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Boreham Wood |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Stockport |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Hartlepool |
A |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

26 Jan |
Torquay |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

23 Jan |
Eastleigh |
H |
3 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

09 Jan |
Altrincham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

08 Dec |
Chesterfield |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

05 Dec |
Solihull |
H |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

**Dover Athletic** in the **last six** matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 4 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Dover Athletic** in the **last three matches** had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dover Athletic’s performance** as a guest**.

Dover Athletic,** as a guest**, had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.

In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 3 of them,** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Dover Athletic was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

30 Jan |
Yeovil |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

26 Jan |
Barnet |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Solihull |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

16 Jan |
Wrexham |
A |
1 |
3 |
L |
O |
G |

12 Jan |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

26 Dec |
Dag and Red |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

21 Nov |
King’s Lynn |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

17 Nov |
Woking |
H |
1 |
5 |
L |
O |
G |

The form score for the **Sutton** is **0.591** and for the **Dover Athletic** is **-0.739.**

The home dynamic for the **Sutton** is **0.571** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Dover Athletic** is **-1.**

The offensive ability for the **Sutton** is **0.016** and for the **Dover Athletic** is **0.288.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Sutton** is **1** and for the **Dover Athletic** is **-1.**

You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK**

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Sutton** and the red line for guest team, **Dover Athletic. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Sutton |
20% |
22% |
28% |
29% |

Dover Athletic |
49% |
37% |
10% |
4% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Sutton** to score **1.96 ** goals and **Dover Athletic** to score **0.79 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.75** goals in the game and the home team **Sutton ** to win by **1.17** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Sutton** to score **1.66 ** goals and **Dover Athletic** to score **0.7 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.36** goals in the game and the home team **Sutton ** to win by **0.96** goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
10.00 |
0-1 |
3.53 |

1 |
5.46 |
2-3 |
1.94 |

2 |
4.18 |
4+ |
4.98 |

3 |
3.61 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.39 |

4 |
6.90 |
Un 1.5 |
3.53 |

5 |
23.26 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.09 |

6+ |
76.92 |
Un 2.5 |
1.92 |

Gg |
2.46 |
Ov 3.5 |
4.98 |

NoG |
1.69 |
Un 3.5 |
1.25 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |
2.62 |
2.83 |
3.77 |

2-3 goals |
1.35 |
6.37 |
9.92 |

4+ goals |
1.47 |
4.90 |
8.74 |

Ov 1.5 |
1.38 |
5.88 |
9.56 |

Un 1.5 |
2.62 |
2.83 |
3.77 |

Ov 2.5 |
1.25 |
11.66 |
8.85 |

Un 2.5 |
2.13 |
2.88 |
5.44 |

Ov 3.5 |
1.47 |
4.90 |
8.74 |

Un 3.5 |
1.63 |
4.41 |
6.29 |

Goal-Goal |
1.70 |
3.34 |
9.04 |

No Goal |
1.53 |
5.93 |
5.65 |

G-G+Ov 2.5 |
1.36 |
7.95 |
7.24 |

NG+Un 2.5 |
1.80 |
5.93 |
4.59 |

####
Go to Top

###
Maidenhead vs Stockport at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between **Maidenhead** and **Stockport** for **Conference (England)**, which will take place on **16 Feb 2021.**

The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |

Maidenhead |
4.21 |
2.61 |
14.6 |

Draw |
3.82 |
3.69 |
0.9 |

Stockport |
1.72 |
2.89 |
-23.5 |

Over 2.5 |
1.74 |
2.02 |
-8.0 |

Under 2.5 |
2.05 |
1.98 |
1.7 |

As you can see we have positive expected value at **Maidenhead, Draw, Under 2.5 (14.6 %, 0.9 %, 1.7 %)** so let’s further analyze the game.

From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage **decreases -3.5%.**

We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

#####
Basic data and latest results

**Maidenhead** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Maidenhead** in the **last three matches** had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 2 of them** but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.**

Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance** at home**.

Maidenhead,** at home**, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.

In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

06 Feb |
Boreham Wood |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Halifax |
A |
3 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

27 Jan |
Yeovil |
H |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Woking |
A |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

26 Dec |
Wealdstone |
H |
4 |
0 |
W |
O |
N |

08 Dec |
Torquay |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |

05 Dec |
Eastleigh |
A |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

28 Nov |
Altrincham |
A |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

**Stockport** in the **last six** matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.

Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.

More recently, **Stockport** in the **last three matches** had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games

Regarding the goals number, **all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.**

Also,** at least one team didn’t score to all of them.**

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance** as a guest**.

Stockport,** as a guest**, had 6 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.

In these matches, Stockport scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games

Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.

Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.

The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |

13 Feb |
Aldershot |
H |
0 |
0 |
D |
U |
N |

06 Feb |
Yeovil |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Feb |
Sutton |
H |
0 |
2 |
L |
U |
N |

30 Jan |
Woking |
A |
4 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |

23 Jan |
Boreham Wood |
H |
1 |
1 |
D |
U |
G |

19 Jan |
Dag and Red |
A |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

02 Jan |
Altrincham |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |

28 Dec |
Wrexham |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |

The form score for the **Maidenhead** is **0.374** and for the **Stockport** is **0.191.**

The home dynamic for the **Maidenhead** is **0.181** and the dynamic as a guest for the **Stockport** is **0.478.**

The offensive ability for the **Maidenhead** is **-0.06** and for the **Stockport** is **0.142.**

Finally, the defensive ability for the **Maidenhead** is **-0.112** and for the **Stockport** is **0.273.**

You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook **MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK**

The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score **exactly** 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.

In the first graph the blue line is for home team, **Maidenhead** and the red line for guest team, **Stockport. **

In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |

Maidenhead |
25% |
36% |
23% |
16% |

Stockport |
28% |
35% |
23% |
14% |

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) **Maidenhead** to score **0.93 ** goals and **Stockport** to score **1.79 ** goals.

So, they expect a total of **2.71** goals in the game and the guest team **Stockport ** to win by **0.86** goals margin on average.

According to our calculations, we expect (on average) **Maidenhead** to score **1.3 ** goals and **Stockport** to score **1.23 ** goals.

So, we expect a total of **2.53** goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is **0.07** on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |

0 |
14.08 |
0-1 |
3.86 |

1 |
5.32 |
2-3 |
2.04 |

2 |
4.05 |
4+ |
3.98 |

3 |
4.10 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.35 |

4 |
6.29 |
Un 1.5 |
3.86 |

5 |
14.29 |
Ov 2.5 |
2.02 |

6+ |
45.45 |
Un 2.5 |
1.98 |

Gg |
1.86 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.98 |

NoG |
2.16 |
Un 3.5 |
1.33 |

The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |

0-1 goals |