2021 02 16 Conference (England)



Division Analysis

Division Analysis

In this article we will analyse the following games:

Dag and Red vs Bromley at 16 February 2021
Wrexham vs Woking at 16 February 2021
Sutton vs Dover Athletic at 16 February 2021
Maidenhead vs Stockport at 16 February 2021
Eastleigh vs Hartlepool at 16 February 2021
Boreham Wood vs Yeovil at 16 February 2021
Barnet vs Halifax at 16 February 2021
Aldershot vs Solihull at 16 February 2021
King’s Lynn vs Notts County at 16 February 2021


Dag and Red vs Bromley at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Dag and Red and Bromley for Conference (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Dag and Red

2.94

3.33

-4.0

Draw

3.34

3.64

-2.5

Bromley

2.26

2.35

-1.7

Over 2.5

1.88

1.98

-2.7

Under 2.5

1.90

2.02

-3.1

As you can see we have positive expected value at ( %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Dag and Red in the last six matches had one win, 2 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 5 points, 27.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dag and Red in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Dag and Red’s performance at home.
Dag and Red, at home, had 2 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 9 points, 37.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Dag and Red scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dag and Red was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Notts County

A

1

3

L

O

G

06 Feb

Wrexham

A

2

2

D

O

G

30 Jan

Chesterfield

H

2

2

D

O

G

26 Jan

Eastleigh

A

0

3

L

O

N

23 Jan

King’s Lynn

H

3

2

W

O

G

19 Jan

Stockport

H

0

2

L

U

N

26 Dec

Dover Athletic

A

1

0

W

U

N

15 Dec

Torquay

A

1

0

W

U

N


Bromley in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Bromley in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Bromley’s performance as a guest.
Bromley, as a guest, had 4 wins, 2 draws, one defeat and gathered 14 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Bromley scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Bromley was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

King’s Lynn

H

2

0

W

U

N

06 Feb

Weymouth

A

1

2

L

O

G

30 Jan

Aldershot

H

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Woking

H

2

2

D

O

G

23 Jan

Halifax

H

1

2

L

O

G

12 Dec

Solihull

A

1

0

W

U

N

08 Dec

Yeovil

H

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Stockport

H

0

2

L

U

N


The form score for the Dag and Red is -0.235 and for the Bromley is 0.026.
The home dynamic for the Dag and Red is -0.2 and the dynamic as a guest for the Bromley is 0.542.
The offensive ability for the Dag and Red is 0.126 and for the Bromley is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Dag and Red is -1 and for the Bromley is 0.245.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Dag and Red and the red line for guest team, Bromley.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Dag and Red

25%

44%

20%

11%

Bromley

23%

33%

26%

19%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.15 goals and Bromley to score 1.4 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.25 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Dag and Red to score 1.17 goals and Bromley to score 1.4 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.23 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

17.86

0-1

4.18

1

5.46

2-3

1.98

2

3.92

4+

3.94

3

4.00

Ov 1.5

1.32

4

5.88

Un 1.5

4.18

5

15.62

Ov 2.5

1.98

6+

50.00

Un 2.5

2.02

Gg

1.72

Ov 3.5

3.94

NoG

2.40

Un 3.5

1.34

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.37

4.27

2.91

2-3 goals

3.74

3.44

2.26

4+ goals

4.03

3.58

2.12

Ov 1.5

3.83

3.48

2.21

Un 1.5

2.37

4.27

2.91

Ov 2.5

3.29

7.10

1.80

Un 2.5

3.38

2.43

3.41

Ov 3.5

4.03

3.58

2.12

Un 3.5

3.15

3.67

2.44

Goal-Goal

4.50

2.67

2.48

No Goal

2.45

7.45

2.18

G-G+Ov 2.5

3.36

6.11

1.85

NG+Un 2.5

2.38

7.45

2.39


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Wrexham vs Woking at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Wrexham and Woking for Conference (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Wrexham

2.23

1.99

5.4

Draw

3.19

3.98

-6.2

Woking

3.15

4.05

-7.1

Over 2.5

2.35

1.95

8.7

Under 2.5

1.58

2.05

-14.5

As you can see we have positive expected value at Wrexham, Over 2.5 (5.4 %, 8.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Wrexham in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Wrexham in the last three matches had one win, 2 draws, no defeats. and gathered 5 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.

Now, let’s look at Wrexham’s performance at home.
Wrexham, at home, had 4 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 15 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Wrexham scored in 5 of them and received at least one goal in 5 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Wrexham was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

09 Feb

Altrincham

A

2

1

W

O

G

06 Feb

Dag and Red

H

2

2

D

O

G

02 Feb

Eastleigh

A

1

1

D

U

G

30 Jan

King’s Lynn

A

2

0

W

U

N

26 Jan

Halifax

H

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Chesterfield

A

1

2

L

O

G

16 Jan

Dover Athletic

H

3

1

W

O

G

28 Dec

Stockport

A

0

2

L

U

N


Woking in the last six matches had no wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 16.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Woking in the last three matches had no wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 2 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Woking’s performance as a guest.
Woking, as a guest, had 2 wins, one draw, 5 defeats, and gathered 7 points, 29.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Woking scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Woking was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Stockport

H

1

4

L

O

G

26 Jan

Bromley

A

2

2

D

O

G

23 Jan

Maidenhead

H

0

0

D

U

N

02 Jan

Aldershot

H

0

1

L

U

N

28 Dec

Eastleigh

H

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Aldershot

A

0

3

L

O

N

12 Dec

Hartlepool

H

3

0

W

O

N

05 Dec

Notts County

A

0

1

L

U

N


The form score for the Wrexham is 0.435 and for the Woking is -0.757.
The home dynamic for the Wrexham is 0.257 and the dynamic as a guest for the Woking is -0.382.
The offensive ability for the Wrexham is 0.563 and for the Woking is -0.433.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Wrexham is -0.112 and for the Woking is -0.209.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Wrexham and the red line for guest team, Woking.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Wrexham

22%

28%

26%

24%

Woking

35%

37%

20%

9%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.21 goals and Woking to score 0.95 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.16 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Wrexham to score 1.52 goals and Woking to score 1.03 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.55 goals in the game and the home team Wrexham to win by 0.49 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

13.16

0-1

3.95

1

5.65

2-3

2.04

2

4.24

4+

3.86

3

3.94

Ov 1.5

1.34

4

6.06

Un 1.5

3.95

5

13.89

Ov 2.5

1.95

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

2.04

Gg

1.95

Ov 3.5

3.86

NoG

2.04

Un 3.5

1.35

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.61

3.33

3.16

2-3 goals

1.82

4.76

4.15

4+ goals

1.89

3.55

5.29

Ov 1.5

1.84

4.26

4.49

Un 1.5

2.61

3.33

3.16

Ov 2.5

1.62

7.03

4.14

Un 2.5

2.61

2.73

3.98

Ov 3.5

1.89

3.55

5.29

Un 3.5

2.03

4.15

3.75

Goal-Goal

2.21

2.91

4.92

No Goal

1.81

6.45

3.43

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.76

5.60

3.93

NG+Un 2.5

2.06

6.45

3.14


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Sutton vs Dover Athletic at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Sutton and Dover Athletic for Conference (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Sutton

1.54

1.59

-2.0

Draw

4.05

4.48

-2.4

Dover Athletic

5.26

6.67

-4.0

Over 2.5

1.71

2.09

-10.6

Under 2.5

2.08

1.92

4.0

As you can see we have positive expected value at Under 2.5 (4 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Sutton in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 2 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 4 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 1 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Sutton in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 2 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Sutton’s performance at home.
Sutton, at home, had 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 20 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Sutton scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 6 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Sutton was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Boreham Wood

H

2

0

W

U

N

02 Feb

Stockport

A

2

0

W

U

N

30 Jan

Hartlepool

A

0

1

L

U

N

26 Jan

Torquay

A

0

0

D

U

N

23 Jan

Eastleigh

H

3

0

W

O

N

09 Jan

Altrincham

H

2

2

D

O

G

08 Dec

Chesterfield

H

0

1

L

U

N

05 Dec

Solihull

H

4

1

W

O

G


Dover Athletic in the last six matches had one win, one draw, 4 defeats, and gathered 4 points, 22.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 4 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 3 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 3 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 4 of them both teams scored, and in 2 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Dover Athletic in the last three matches had one win, no draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 3 points, 33.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Dover Athletic’s performance as a guest.
Dover Athletic, as a guest, had no wins, no draws, 6 defeats, and gathered 0 points, 0.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Dover Athletic scored in 3 of them, but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Dover Athletic was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

30 Jan

Yeovil

A

1

3

L

O

G

26 Jan

Barnet

H

3

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Solihull

H

0

2

L

U

N

16 Jan

Wrexham

A

1

3

L

O

G

12 Jan

Boreham Wood

H

1

1

D

U

G

26 Dec

Dag and Red

H

0

1

L

U

N

21 Nov

King’s Lynn

A

0

2

L

U

N

17 Nov

Woking

H

1

5

L

O

G


The form score for the Sutton is 0.591 and for the Dover Athletic is -0.739.
The home dynamic for the Sutton is 0.571 and the dynamic as a guest for the Dover Athletic is -1.
The offensive ability for the Sutton is 0.016 and for the Dover Athletic is 0.288.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Sutton is 1 and for the Dover Athletic is -1.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Sutton and the red line for guest team, Dover Athletic.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Sutton

20%

22%

28%

29%

Dover Athletic

49%

37%

10%

4%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.96 goals and Dover Athletic to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Sutton to win by 1.17 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sutton to score 1.66 goals and Dover Athletic to score 0.7 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Sutton to win by 0.96 goals margin on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

10.00

0-1

3.53

1

5.46

2-3

1.94

2

4.18

4+

4.98

3

3.61

Ov 1.5

1.39

4

6.90

Un 1.5

3.53

5

23.26

Ov 2.5

2.09

6+

76.92

Un 2.5

1.92

Gg

2.46

Ov 3.5

4.98

NoG

1.69

Un 3.5

1.25

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals

2.62

2.83

3.77

2-3 goals

1.35

6.37

9.92

4+ goals

1.47

4.90

8.74

Ov 1.5

1.38

5.88

9.56

Un 1.5

2.62

2.83

3.77

Ov 2.5

1.25

11.66

8.85

Un 2.5

2.13

2.88

5.44

Ov 3.5

1.47

4.90

8.74

Un 3.5

1.63

4.41

6.29

Goal-Goal

1.70

3.34

9.04

No Goal

1.53

5.93

5.65

G-G+Ov 2.5

1.36

7.95

7.24

NG+Un 2.5

1.80

5.93

4.59


See how you can ‘build’ the game in your mind with the help of different scenarios.
Extract more value from your bets!

Go to Top


Maidenhead vs Stockport at 16 Feb 2021

In this section we will analyze the game between Maidenhead and Stockport for Conference (England), which will take place on 16 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Outcome

Book

Ours

Val %

Maidenhead

4.21

2.61

14.6

Draw

3.82

3.69

0.9

Stockport

1.72

2.89

-23.5

Over 2.5

1.74

2.02

-8.0

Under 2.5

2.05

1.98

1.7

As you can see we have positive expected value at Maidenhead, Draw, Under 2.5 (14.6 %, 0.9 %, 1.7 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases -3.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.

Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore

Basic data and latest results

Maidenhead in the last six matches had 3 wins, one draw, 2 defeats, and gathered 10 points, 55.6% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 4 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 4 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 2 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 3 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Maidenhead in the last three matches had 2 wins, no draws,one defeat and gathered 6 points, 66.7% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.

Now, let’s look at Maidenhead’s performance at home.
Maidenhead, at home, had 4 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 13 points, 54.2% of the total available.
In these matches, Maidenhead scored in 6 of them and received at least one goal in 7 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 7 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Maidenhead was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

06 Feb

Boreham Wood

H

0

1

L

U

N

30 Jan

Halifax

A

3

2

W

O

G

27 Jan

Yeovil

H

4

2

W

O

G

23 Jan

Woking

A

0

0

D

U

N

26 Dec

Wealdstone

H

4

0

W

O

N

08 Dec

Torquay

A

1

2

L

O

G

05 Dec

Eastleigh

A

1

0

W

U

N

28 Nov

Altrincham

A

0

2

L

U

N


Stockport in the last six matches had 3 wins, 2 draws,one defeat and gathered 11 points, 61.1% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 4 of them and received at least one goal in 3 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 1 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 4 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Stockport in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 1 of them and received at least one goal in 1 of the last three games
Regarding the goals number, all of them ended up with less than three goals scored.
Also, at least one team didn’t score to all of them.

Now, let’s look at Stockport’s performance as a guest.
Stockport, as a guest, had 6 wins, one draw, 3 defeats, and gathered 19 points, 63.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Stockport scored in 7 of them and received at least one goal in 8 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Stockport was :

date

versus

At

sc

rec

res

OU

Gg

13 Feb

Aldershot

H

0

0

D

U

N

06 Feb

Yeovil

H

1

0

W

U

N

02 Feb

Sutton

H

0

2

L

U

N

30 Jan

Woking

A

4

1

W

O

G

23 Jan

Boreham Wood

H

1

1

D

U

G

19 Jan

Dag and Red

A

2

0

W

U

N

02 Jan

Altrincham

H

2

2

D

O

G

28 Dec

Wrexham

H

2

0

W

U

N


The form score for the Maidenhead is 0.374 and for the Stockport is 0.191.
The home dynamic for the Maidenhead is 0.181 and the dynamic as a guest for the Stockport is 0.478.
The offensive ability for the Maidenhead is -0.06 and for the Stockport is 0.142.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Maidenhead is -0.112 and for the Stockport is 0.273.
You will soon find how to turn these number into profitable decisions in my newbook MATH to WIN : NUMBERS can TALK


The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Maidenhead and the red line for guest team, Stockport.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.

Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.

Team

No-G

1 gl

2 gls

3+ gls

Maidenhead

25%

36%

23%

16%

Stockport

28%

35%

23%

14%

According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 0.93 goals and Stockport to score 1.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and the guest team Stockport to win by 0.86 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Maidenhead to score 1.3 goals and Stockport to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.53 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.07 on average.

Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.

Goals

Odds

Goals

Odds

0

14.08

0-1

3.86

1

5.32

2-3

2.04

2

4.05

4+

3.98

3

4.10

Ov 1.5

1.35

4

6.29

Un 1.5

3.86

5

14.29

Ov 2.5

2.02

6+

45.45

Un 2.5

1.98

Gg

1.86

Ov 3.5

3.98

NoG

2.16

Un 3.5

1.33

Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.

if game ends at

-1-

-X-

-2-

0-1 goals