Division Analysis
In this article we will analyse the following games:
Levante vs Ath Madrid at 17 February 2021
Levante vs Ath Madrid at 17 Feb 2021
In this section we will analyze the game between Levante and Ath Madrid for La Liga (Spain), which will take place on 17 Feb 2021.
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :
|
Outcome |
Book |
Ours |
Val % |
|
Levante |
4.72 |
2.75 |
15.2 |
|
Draw |
3.43 |
3.88 |
-3.4 |
|
Ath Madrid |
1.86 |
2.65 |
-16.0 |
|
Over 2.5 |
2.01 |
1.82 |
5.2 |
|
Under 2.5 |
1.84 |
2.22 |
-9.3 |
As you can see we have positive expected value at Levante, Over 2.5 (15.2 %, 5.2 %) so let’s further analyze the game.
From the table of monthly allocation of Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goals percentages for the division, we estimate that the Over 2.5 goals percentage decreases slightly, -0.5%.
We can use these observations as an auxiliary factor in our game analysis.
Find the monthly tables for Over 2.5 goals and Goal-Goal percentages and how to use them in our book at Amazon bookstore
Basic data and latest results
Levante in the last six matches had 2 wins, 3 draws,one defeat and gathered 9 points, 50.0% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 5 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Levante in the last three matches had one win, one draw,one defeat and gathered 4 points, 44.4% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 2 of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, 2 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 2 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
Now, let’s look at Levante’s performance at home.
Levante, at home, had 4 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats, and gathered 17 points, 51.5% of the total available.
In these matches, Levante scored in 9 of them and received at least one goal in 10 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 6 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 8 of them both teams scored, and in 3 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Levante was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
14 Feb |
Osasuna |
H |
0 |
1 |
L |
U |
N |
|
06 Feb |
Granada |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
30 Jan |
Real Madrid |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
22 Jan |
Valladolid |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
19 Jan |
Cadiz |
A |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
10 Jan |
Eibar |
H |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
02 Jan |
Villarreal |
A |
1 |
2 |
L |
O |
G |
|
29 Dec |
Betis |
H |
4 |
3 |
W |
O |
G |
Ath Madrid in the last six matches had 5 wins, one draw, no defeats.and gathered 16 points, 88.9% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in all of them and received at least one goal in 5 of the last six games.
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 1 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 1 of them at least one team didn’t score.
More recently, Ath Madrid in the last three matches had 2 wins, one draw, no defeats. and gathered 7 points, 77.8% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in all of them but didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet.
Regarding the goals number, all of them finished with three or more goals scored.
Also,both teams scored in all of them.
Now, let’s look at Ath Madrid’s performance as a guest.
Ath Madrid, as a guest, had 8 wins, one draw, one defeat and gathered 25 points, 83.3% of the total available.
In these matches, Ath Madrid scored in 8 of them and received at least one goal in 6 of these games
Regarding the goals number, 5 of them ended up with three or more goals scored, and 5 of them finished with less than three goals scored.
Also, in 5 of them both teams scored, and in 5 of them at least one team didn’t score.
The latest 8 results of Ath Madrid was :
|
date |
versus |
At |
sc |
rec |
res |
OU |
Gg |
|
13 Feb |
Granada |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
08 Feb |
Celta |
H |
2 |
2 |
D |
O |
G |
|
31 Jan |
Cadiz |
A |
4 |
2 |
W |
O |
G |
|
24 Jan |
Valencia |
H |
3 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
21 Jan |
Eibar |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
12 Jan |
Sevilla |
H |
2 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
|
03 Jan |
Alaves |
A |
2 |
1 |
W |
O |
G |
|
30 Dec |
Getafe |
H |
1 |
0 |
W |
U |
N |
The form score for the Levante is 0.304 and for the Ath Madrid is 0.783.
The home dynamic for the Levante is 0.248 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ath Madrid is 1.
The offensive ability for the Levante is 0.421 and for the Ath Madrid is 1.
Finally, the defensive ability for the Levante is -1 and for the Ath Madrid is -0.664.
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The first graph shows the probabilities for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals and the second the probabilities of the total goals in the game.
In the first graph the blue line is for home team, Levante and the red line for guest team, Ath Madrid.
In the second graph the red line is the book’s estimations and the blue line is our estimations regarding total goals number. The vertical line is the 2.5 goals limit.
Below are the percentages for each team to score exactly 0,1,2 or 3+ goals gathered in a table.
|
Team |
No-G |
1 gl |
2 gls |
3+ gls |
|
Levante |
26% |
29% |
29% |
16% |
|
Ath Madrid |
24% |
34% |
23% |
19% |
According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Levante to score 0.84 goals and Ath Madrid to score 1.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.45 goals in the game and the guest team Ath Madrid to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Levante to score 1.34 goals and Ath Madrid to score 1.37 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.71 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.03 on average.
Another helpfull table presents the odds of various outcomes regarding goals number.
|
Goals |
Odds |
Goals |
Odds |
|
0 |
15.87 |
0-1 |
4.50 |
|
1 |
6.29 |
2-3 |
2.07 |
|
2 |
4.39 |
4+ |
3.39 |
|
3 |
3.94 |
Ov 1.5 |
1.29 |
|
4 |
5.71 |
Un 1.5 |
4.50 |
|
5 |
10.99 |
Ov 2.5 |
1.82 |
|
6+ |
34.48 |
Un 2.5 |
2.22 |
|
Gg |
1.79 |
Ov 3.5 |
3.39 |
|
NoG |
2.27 |
Un 3.5 |
1.42 |
Now we can create different game scenarios and calculate the fair odds for various outcomes.
The blue color indicates the best and the red color the worst scenario for each outcome.
|
if game ends at |
-1- |
-X- |
-2- |
|
0-1 goals |
3.22 |
3.52 |
2.47 |
|
2-3 goals |
2.35 |
4.97 |
2.68 |
|
4+ goals |
3.28 |
3.04 |
2.73 |
|
Ov 1.5 |
2.63 |
4.01 |
2.70 |
|
Un 1.5 |
3.22 |
3.52 |
2.47 |
|
Ov 2.5 |
2.43 |
5.66 |
2.43 |
|
Un 2.5 |
3.26 |
2.81 |
2.96 |
|
Ov 3.5 |
3.28 |
3.04 |
2.73 |
|
Un 3.5 |
2.57 |
4.40 |
2.61 |
|
Goal-Goal |
2.97 |
2.88 |
3.17 |
|
No Goal |
2.51 |
7.00 |
2.18 |
|
G-G+Ov 2.5 |
2.45 |
4.75 |
2.62 |
|
NG+Un 2.5 |
2.56 |
7.00 |
2.32 |
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